Adani Green Energy

Income statement (consolidated, Ind AS, INR cr)

Sources: Revenue from operations and PAT attributable to owners come from consolidated filings as reproduced by Stockezee and Fyers (aggregator), reconciled to press reports (Business Standard FY24, PTI FY23). PAT incl. NCI comes from PTI/Outlook (FY25, FY26) and company releases. EPS is basic as reported (Equitiesindia aggregator).

Notes:

FY2021 revenue: was INR 3,124 cr (aggregator).

• FY2024 PAT incl.

FY2026 EPS: of INR 9.65 is the sum of reported quarterly basic EPS (4.26 + 3.44 − 0.38 + 2.33). The warrants were converted by Q2 FY26.

Gross profit: is not meaningful for an IPP with no cost of goods sold.

• Aggregator figures conflict (e.g., Fyers shows FY26 PBT of INR 2,001 cr, which is inconsistent with PAT incl. NCI of INR 1,987 cr given the tax charges disclosed in quarterly results).

Sources: Angel One and Upstox for total income. Adani Portfolio FY26 release (Jun 2026) for EBITDA. AGEL FY26 release and Renewable Watch for cash profit. FY2024 cash profit was INR 3,986 cr (Business Standard, May 2024).

Revenue CAGR (computed):

• FY2021–FY2026 (5-year): 32.9%

• FY2022–FY2026 (4-year): 26.0%

Quarterly profit path, FY26 to Q1 FY27 (INR cr)

Sources: Business Standard; Outlook Business; Free Press Journal; IIFL; Angel One; Fyers.

Source conflict. Some outlets reported Q1 FY27 "revenue" as INR 4,663 cr, which is total income. Revenue from operations was INR 4,431 cr. One outlet (Sahi) mislabelled Q4 FY26 figures (INR 3,502 cr revenue, INR 514 cr PAT) as Q1 FY27.

Balance sheet (consolidated, INR cr, 31 March)

Source: consolidated balance sheets as reproduced by Stockezee (aggregator). Company-defined net debt comes from the FY26 results commentary (Sahi). MarketsMojo shows Mar 2026 borrowings of INR 100,478 cr against Stockezee's INR 101,440 cr; the difference of about 1% likely reflects lease liabilities or interest-accrual classification.

The gap between company-defined net debt and the computed figure reflects:

• netting of bank balances, fixed deposits and investments beyond cash & cash equivalents; and

• possible exclusion of related-party and other sub-debt items in the company definition.

Cash flow (consolidated, INR cr)

Source: consolidated cash-flow statements via Stockezee and Upstox (aggregator). The Torus aggregator shows FY2025 CFO of INR 8,957 cr and FY2022 CFO of INR 3,127 cr. That discrepancy is unresolved; Stockezee and Upstox agree on the figures used below.

Capex disclosures from the company:

• Q1 FY27 capex: INR 8,826 cr, up 41% YoY.

• FY27 capex guidance: about INR 42,000 cr (Q1 FY27 call).

• Guidance at the Nov 2025 call: about INR 30,000 cr for FY26 and INR 30,000–35,000 cr a year for the following two years.

A FilingReader AI summary printed the FY27 guidance as "INR 4,200 crore", which is a transcription error.

Ratio analysis (computed unless stated)

Method notes:

• ROE uses owners' PAT over average total equity including NCI. Owners-only ROE is higher; one aggregator shows 11.4% for FY26.

• ROA uses owners' PAT over average total assets.

• Debt/equity uses total borrowings over total equity incl. NCI.

• Asset turnover uses revenue from operations over average total assets.

• FY2021 opening values used: total equity INR 2,126 cr; total assets INR 28,721 cr.

• ROIC (no reliable annual EBIT or tax).

Management leverage metric. At the H1 FY26 call, management cited net debt to run-rate EBITDA of 4.4x on operational assets and 5.1x including under-construction debt. It guided a sharp decline from 2029 as capex converts to EBITDA (FilingReader, Nov 2025).

Commentary: trends, inflections and drivers

Revenue. Growth has decelerated from hyper-growth (FY22: +64%, FY23: +52%) to a steady 15–22% band. The FY22–FY23 surge reflects the SB Energy acquisition (about 5 GW, Oct 2021) and the Jaisalmer hybrid build. From FY24 onward, growth has been organic and Khavda-led.

The core operating driver, energy sold, grew faster than revenue: +34% in FY26 to 37,567 million units (MU), and +32% in H1 FY27 to 25,747 MU. Three factors explain the gap between volume and revenue growth:

• falling contribution from non-power revenue;

• lower tariffs on newer auction capacity than on legacy PPAs; and

• curtailment and transmission delays at some Rajasthan and Gujarat sites, which the industry highlighted in FY26.

Profitability. EBITDA margins are structurally high (power supply 91–94%), because renewable generation has negligible fuel cost and AGEL runs a centralised O&M model.

Bottom-line margins (about 12–13% net) are compressed by three items:

1. Depreciation on a PPE base that grew from INR 28,369 cr (FY22) to INR 102,049 cr (FY26).

2. Finance costs: Q3 FY26 finance cost was up 36% YoY.

3. Exceptional items: refinancing costs, project write-offs, and legacy dispute provisions in FY26.

FY26 PAT incl. NCI was flat (−0.7%, INR 1,987 cr vs INR 2,001 cr) despite 23% EBITDA growth. This is the clearest evidence of the "depreciation-and-interest drag" phase of the capex cycle. Q1 FY27 PAT attributable growth of +18.5% suggests the drag is beginning to normalise as new capacity reaches full-year contribution.

Balance sheet. The equity base grew more than tenfold (INR 2,612 cr to INR 29,879 cr, FY22–FY26) through three sources:

• TotalEnergies JV equity and NCI;

• promoter warrants (INR 9,350 cr); and

• retained earnings.

This de-risked debt/equity from 20x to 3.4x. Absolute leverage, however, is rising: company net debt rose 42% in FY26 to INR 91,252 cr, and net debt/EBITDA expanded to 7.6x on a reported (not run-rate) basis. The trajectory hinges on commissioning converting under-construction debt into EBITDA.

Cash flow. Operating cash flow has more than tripled (INR 3,060 cr to INR 10,135 cr), with CFO/revenue at 75–93%. This is consistent with high-quality contracted cash flows. Free cash flow is deeply negative (−INR 16,000 cr in FY26) and will become more negative in FY27 given INR 42,000 cr of capex guidance. AGEL is a structural external-capital consumer until at least FY29–FY30.

Shareholder returns. AGEL has never paid a dividend or bought back shares. Its capital-allocation policy is full reinvestment.

Management guidance (FY27)

• About 5 GW greenfield RE addition. H1 FY27 delivered 1,469 MW, so about 3.5 GW is needed in H2.

• More than 10 GWh cumulative BESS (6.63 GWh at Sep 2026).

• Capex of about INR 42,000 cr. Q1 FY27 spend was INR 8,826 cr.

• All merchant and C&I capacity sold long-term to AESL.

• Long-term targets: 50 GW RE and 50 GWh BESS by FY2029-30; more than 5 GW PSP by 2030.

Consensus growth expectations

MarketScreener's consensus snapshot (taken at a June quote date) shows the following. Units are INR crore despite the source's apparent million scaling; these are sell-side estimates, not company guidance.

Macquarie projects a 30% EBITDA CAGR over five years.

Bull case

1. Overhang removal re-rates the cost of capital. The US criminal case was dismissed with prejudice (10 Aug 2026), the SEC matter was settled, and domestic ratings are AA/Stable. An international issuer-level upgrade toward investment grade (JCR has already assigned BBB+) could lower refinancing spreads on a roughly INR 1 lakh crore debt book. Each 50 bp of savings is worth about INR 450–500 cr a year pre-tax (computed, illustrative).

2. Storage adds a high-return second earnings engine. At guided economics (INR 1.5 cr per MWh capex; INR 25–30 lakh EBITDA per MWh), BESS yields about a 17–20% pre-tax EBITDA return on capex (computed). The ramp to more than 10 GWh by FY27 and 50 GWh by FY30 could add INR 12,500–15,000 cr of annual EBITDA at full scale (computed), roughly equal to all of today's EBITDA.

3. Execution moat in a sector that under-delivers. AGEL beat FY26 capacity guidance while most peers missed. Khavda's 30 GW site bank and captive EPC give it repeatable 5 GW+ a year additions. These support consensus EBITDA nearly tripling from INR 10,768 cr (FY26) to about INR 28,224 cr (FY29E).

Bear case

1. The leverage–return gap persists. Net debt rose 42% to INR 91,252 cr in FY26 while PAT incl. NCI fell 0.7%. Computed ROE on total equity has declined from 19.6% to 6.3% since FY23. With FY27 capex of INR 42,000 cr, free cash flow stays deeply negative, so further equity or hybrid issuance is likely and dilutive.

2. Related-party circularity masks economic risk. Moving all merchant and BESS volumes to AESL improves AGEL's reported predictability but concentrates counterparty, pricing and transfer-pricing risk inside the promoter group. Combined with EPC (AIIL) and O&M (AIMSL), the arm's-length economics of a large share of AGEL's value chain cannot be independently verified.

3. Valuation leaves no room for slippage. At about 116x trailing P/E and about 25x EV/EBITDA (computed), versus single-digit to teens P/E for regulated peers, a back-end loaded FY27 (only 29% of the 5 GW target delivered in H1), curtailment or ISTS-waiver changes could compress the multiple. The Q3 FY26 reaction (−12.5% in one day on an earnings miss) illustrates the sensitivity.

Key catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)

Concluding analyst verdict

Adani Green Energy is now the dominant renewable-generation platform in India by a wide margin. It has 20.8 GW operating, 6.6 GWh of batteries, and a site bank at Khavda large enough to underwrite most of its 50 GW ambition. Operationally, the company has earned credibility. It beat FY26 capacity guidance with a record 5.1 GW, holds power-supply EBITDA margins above 90%, and keeps plant availability at 99% for solar. The contracted, sovereign-heavy revenue base produces operating cash flow above INR 10,000 crore a year and growing.

The investment debate has shifted decisively in 2026. The most acute non-financial risk, the US criminal case, ended with dismissal with prejudice in August 2026. The civil SEC matter moved to a consent settlement with modest personal penalties. Domestic credit has strengthened to AA. What remains is a financial-structure question rather than an existential one.

AGEL is in the most capital-intensive phase of its life:

• net debt above INR 91,000 crore;

• FY27 capex guided at about INR 42,000 crore;

• free cash flow deeply negative; and

• returns on equity diluted to single digits by depreciation and interest on assets not yet earning full-year revenue.

The Q1 FY27 move to route all merchant volume through AESL improves reported predictability, but it deepens reliance on related parties. Investors cannot fully audit that dependence from outside.

Our synthesis is that AGEL offers best-in-class growth and execution with a materially reduced governance tail. The equity, however, already prices in much of the 2030 plan at about 116x trailing earnings. The stock's path over the next 12 months will depend less on headlines and more on three measurable deliveries:

1. H2 FY27 commissioning of about 3.5 GW;

2. transparent BESS earnings disclosure as capacity passes 10 GWh; and

3. evidence that net debt to EBITDA is peaking.

Delivery on all three would justify the premium. Slippage on any one, in a stock with a beta of 1.7, would likely be punished quickly. This is a balanced, execution-contingent profile: constructive on fundamentals, cautious on valuation.

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Principal sources:

• AGEL media releases: FY26 (24 Apr 2026); 9M FY26 (23 Jan 2026); H1 FY26 (Nov 2025); Q1 FY27 (22 Jul 2026); BESS 6.63 GWh (1 Oct 2026).

• AGEL H1 FY27 operational update (10 Oct 2026).

• AGEL FY2025-26 Integrated Annual Report: Directors' Report, Corporate Information, AGM Notice.

• BRSR FY25 and FY26.

• AGEL exchange filings: Q1 FY27 board outcome; EGM notices and results (Jan and Sep 2026); US-matter updates (May and Aug 2026); RG2 letter (25 Dec 2025).

• FY26 and Q1 FY27 earnings call transcripts.

• Adani Portfolio FY26 and H1 FY26 releases.

• SEC Litigation Release 26177.

• Reporting by Business Standard, Outlook Business, CNBC, Al Jazeera, PV Magazine India, Mercom, SolarQuarter, Business Today, IIFL, Kotak Neo, Angel One and Business Upturn.

• Aggregators: Stockezee, Upstox, Fyers, Screener, MarketsMojo, MarketScreener, Simply Wall St and Equitiesindia.

All aggregator-derived figures should be reconciled to the audited FY26 consolidated financial statements before external publication.