APAR Industries

Basis: Consolidated, Ind AS. FY24–FY26 revenue, EBITDA and PAT per company releases; FY22–FY23 and line items not given in company releases are from StockAnalysis (S&P-type standardised data, ₹ mn converted to ₹ Cr). "Aggregator EBITDA" excludes other income and certain forex items; "Company EBITDA" is management's "EBITDA post open-period forex". Derived figures are labelled.

Income statement (₹ crore)

Notes: FY24 company EBITDA derived from reported 10.1% margin (Business Standard, May 2025). FY22–FY24 EPS derived (net income ÷ weighted shares: 3.827 Cr for FY22–FY23; ~3.89 Cr for FY24, reflecting the Oct 2023 QIP); FY25 (₹204.46) and FY26 (₹243.20) are as reported (Fyers/company). FY25 dividend ₹51 (Business Standard, 14 May 2025); FY26 dividend ₹60 (record date 14 Sep 2026).

Margins and growth

Revenue CAGR: FY22–FY26 ≈ 25.2% (derived); FY21–FY26 ≈ 29% (company, Q4 FY26 call: ₹6,406 Cr → ₹22,902 Cr).

Quarterly trajectory (₹ crore)

Sources: HDFC Sky/AlphaStreet (Q1 FY26), FilingReader (Q2), AlphaStreet (Q3), NSE investor update (Q4), Quartr/Multibagg/Angel One (Q1 FY27). Q3 FY26 EBITDA derived as FY26 total minus other quarters. Data conflict: Q1 FY27 consolidated net profit is reported as ₹467.45 Cr (attributable to owners; Angel One, IndMoney) and ₹469.60 Cr (total incl. non-controlling interest; Free Press Journal, Multibagg); EPS reported as ₹112.74 (Multibagg) vs ₹116.37 (Share.Market). One outlet (Free Press Journal) stated Q1 FY27 revenue growth of 13.92% by comparing against ₹5,704 Cr; the company's own figure is +29.1% vs ₹5,104 Cr — the company figure is used here.

Commentary — income statement. Three distinct phases are visible. (1) FY22–FY23 boom: revenue rose ~54% in FY23 as aluminium prices, export demand (notably US renewable cables and conductors) and operating leverage combined; EBIT margin jumped from 4.9% to 8.0% and PAT rose 2.5×. (2) FY24–FY25 plateau: revenue growth slowed to 13–15%, and PAT was flat in FY25 (−0.5%) as conductor EBITDA/MT normalised from the FY24 peak (₹48,453/MT in Q4 FY24 to ₹36,683/MT for FY25) and US revenue fell 5% in FY25; company EBITDA margin compressed from 10.1% to 9.0%. (3) FY26–Q1 FY27 re-acceleration: revenue +23.3% in FY26 led by conductors (+32.7%) and cables (+25.8%), with a structural mix shift (premium conductors 45.8% of FY26 revenue). PAT rose only 19% in FY26 because Q4 FY26 absorbed one-time expenses and Middle East disruption (Q4 PAT +1.4%). Q1 FY27 then delivered a step-change: EBITDA +62.7% YoY to ₹814 Cr (12.4% margin), with roughly two-fifths of the incremental EBITDA coming from an exceptional oil-division inventory gain (EBITDA/KL ₹25,482 vs ₹7,004) that management explicitly declined to guide as sustainable, net of a ~₹93 Cr inventory provision.

Balance sheet (₹ crore)

Sources/notes: StockAnalysis balance-sheet data (₹ mn ÷ 10). Funded debt derived as cash & ST investments minus net cash; it excludes LC acceptances/supplier credit, which are large and are captured in CareEdge's total outside liabilities to tangible net worth (TOL/TNW) of 1.54x at 31 Mar 2026, projected to fall to 0.83x by end-FY27 after the QIP. CareEdge reported total debt/gross cash accruals of 4.89x for FY25 (on a basis including acceptances). Indicatively, total equity at 31 Mar 2026 is estimated at ~₹5,000–5,400 Cr (derived from company-reported FY26 ROE of 19.74%); post-QIP and Q1 FY27 profits, equity is estimated at ~₹8,000–8,400 Cr, consistent with aggregator P/B of ~8.3x (Anand Rathi, Aug–Sep 2026).

Cash flow (₹ crore)

Sources/notes: OCF and investing CF FY22–FY25 from Torus Digital (consolidated). FCF from StockAnalysis. Capex derived as OCF − FCF. FY26 OCF derived from reported OCF/net income ratio of 0.99x (Craytheon) and FCF ₹231 Cr (StockAnalysis) — treat as indicative.

Ratios

Sources: FY26 ROE/ROCE from company corporate presentation (2026). FY24/FY25 ROE from Screener snapshots (aggregator; approximate). Cash conversion cycle from Screener (FY22–FY25); management cites a 45–50-day working-capital cycle in Q1 FY27 (different methodology — Screener treats acceptances as payables, depressing CCC). Interest coverage, ROIC, current ratio, debt/equity and asset turnover were not available from verifiable sources in this research; TipRanks reports ROIC of ~51% (TTM, early 2026) — not reconcilable to company data and therefore not relied upon. Reported debt/equity on a funded-debt basis is low (~0.2x FY26, derived), but economic leverage including acceptances is materially higher (TOL/TNW 1.54x).

Commentary — balance sheet and cash. APAR's reported funded debt understates its true use of credit: the business runs on LC-backed raw-material imports, so working-capital swings dominate cash flow. FY24 shows the pattern starkly — OCF turned negative (−₹283 Cr) as receivables and inventory rose with export growth, offset by the ₹1,000 Cr QIP. FY25 was the cash-generation year (OCF ₹1,291 Cr, FCF ₹782 Cr) as working capital released. FY26 FCF fell to ~₹231 Cr because receivables jumped ~30% (₹4,233 Cr → ₹5,490 Cr) with revenue growth and capex rose to ~₹736 Cr; net cash swung to net debt of ₹223 Cr. The ₹2,500 Cr QIP in August 2026 materially resets the balance sheet: CareEdge expects TOL/TNW to drop below 1.0x and explicitly expects reduced dependence on LC acceptances, which should lower finance costs (a key drag on the ~4% net margin). The quality-of-earnings watch-point is FCF conversion (0.24x NI in FY26), which must improve as capex-funded capacity starts generating revenue.

Management guidance (summary)

Profits to at least double in 4–5 years; capacity to add ₹3,000–5,000 Cr revenue per year; conductor volumes +10% p.a. at a ₹40,000/MT EBITDA target; cables +25% p.a. at 10–11% EBITDA margin toward ₹10,000 Cr by FY29; US revenue US$0.5 bn in three years; FY27 capex ~₹1,500 Cr. No guidance on oil margins.

Consensus growth expectations

PL Capital (Jul 2026) models FY27E revenue +23.6% and FY28E +16.0%, EBITDA ₹2,555 Cr and ₹2,851 Cr, and EPS ₹361 and ₹404 — implying ~48% EPS growth in FY27 (flattered by Q1 FY27 oil gains) and ~12% in FY28. Broader consensus is not reliably available.

Bull case

1. Structural conductor margin uplift: premium mix >50% and a ₹10,190 Cr order book (57% export) support EBITDA/MT well above the ₹36,683 FY25 level; Q1 FY27 printed ₹53,418.

2. US data-centre optionality: hyperscaler approvals open a copper-cable market APAR barely serves today; achieving US$0.5 bn US revenue would roughly triple US sales.

3. De-risked balance sheet: QIP and CARE AA upgrade cut LC dependence and finance costs, which are the main reason net margins lag peers — every 50 bp of finance-cost saving on ~₹25,000 Cr revenue is ~₹125 Cr pre-tax.

Bear case

1. Oil-margin mean reversion: Q1 FY27 oil EBITDA (₹329 Cr, 19.3% margin) is ~3× normal; reversal (management warned of contract-lag losses) could remove ~₹200 Cr+ of quarterly EBITDA versus Q1 run-rate.

2. Volume softness and US volatility: conductor volume fell 6.7% and US conductor revenue fell 34% in Q1 FY27; US cable exports fell 13.7% — the growth narrative depends on execution not yet visible in volumes.

3. Valuation and dilution: at ~55x TTM P/E after a ~2× one-year rally and 4.2% QIP dilution, the stock prices in sustained peak-cycle margins; FCF conversion (0.24x in FY26) does not yet corroborate earnings.

Catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)

Analyst verdict

APAR Industries has transformed from a cyclical conductor-and-oils exporter into a three-engine grid-infrastructure platform whose earnings power is now visibly higher than it was two years ago. The evidence is concrete: FY26 revenue of ₹22,902 Cr (+23%), a conductor division that crossed ₹10,000 Cr with EBITDA/MT up 17% to ₹43,012, a cable division that overtook oils, and a Q1 FY27 that set records on every line. The structural drivers — reconductoring with HTLS, transformer scarcity, renewables, railways and US data-centre build-outs — are long-duration, and APAR's order book (₹10,190 Cr in conductors, ₹1,925 Cr in cables) offers better visibility than at any point in its history. The ₹2,500 Cr QIP and CARE AA upgrade address the company's long-standing Achilles' heel, its dependence on LC-financed working capital.

The debate is not about quality but about the run-rate. Q1 FY27's 12.4% EBITDA margin is inflated by an oil-inventory windfall that management itself declined to extrapolate; underlying conductor volumes fell and US execution was weak in the same quarter. A normalised view — conductor EBITDA in the ₹40,000–45,000/MT range, cables at 10–11%, oils back toward ₹6,000–8,000/KL — supports strong but not explosive earnings growth from a FY27 base that will look tough to beat in FY28. At ~55x trailing and ~44x FY27E (pre-dilution) earnings, and ~27x EV/EBITDA, the stock discounts much of the bull case already, and FCF conversion has yet to catch up with reported profit.

Verdict: a high-quality, strategically well-positioned compounder whose fundamentals justify a premium, but whose valuation leaves limited room for error. The Q2 FY27 print (29 Oct 2026) — specifically oil-margin normalisation, conductor volume recovery and US order inflows — is the key near-term test. Constructive on the business; neutral-to-cautious on entry valuation after the 2026 re-rating.

Principal sources consulted

APAR Industries exchange filings (NSE/BSE): Q4 & FY26 investor update and results (28 May 2026); Q1 FY27 results and call transcript (24 Jul 2026); QIP filings (Aug 2026); credit-rating intimation (10 Sep 2026); audited FS 2025-26 (28 Jul 2026); board outcome FY25 (14 May 2025); Q4 FY25 press release and investor updates (FY25). CareEdge rating rationales (Dec 2020, Oct 2021, Aug 2025, Sep 2026). Company website (history, news). Luberef press release (Nov 2022). Media/aggregators: Business Standard, Capital Market (via Arihant/Muthoot/JKBFSL), Angel One, DSIJ, Multibagg, Quartr, CompoundingAI, ScanX, Tradebrains, TND India, FilingReader, StockAnalysis, Screener, Trendlyne, Upstox, Kotak Neo, MarketsMojo, Google Finance, PL Capital (25 Jul 2026). Peer data: Polycab press release (6 May 2026), KEI investor presentation (4 May 2026), Savita Oil Technologies FY26 release and investor presentation (May 2026).