Aspen Holdings Overview
Aspen Group is an internally managed, ASX-listed owner, operator and developer of affordable accommodation in Australia. It targets households earning less than A$100,000 a year that need rents below about A$500 per week, a segment the company describes as acutely undersupplied.
The portfolio has three types of rental stock:
Residential: dwellings
Lifestyle: land-lease communities, mainly for over-50s
- Parks, which are tourist and holiday parks
At 30 June 2026 the rental pool was valued at A$701m. Aspen also runs a fast-growing development business. It sells new Lifestyle houses and residential land lots, while keeping the land beneath land-lease homes as a recurring rent-paying site.
The model rests on buying property below replacement cost, often from distressed vendors or not-for-profits, and producing new supply cheaply. Management claims a structural cost-of-production advantage over listed peers. In FY26 underlying pre-tax EPS rose 30% to 21.8 cents and NAV (ex-DTL) per security rose 13% to A$2.88. FY27 guidance points to a further 20% EPS increase.
What the company does
Aspen Group owns, operates and develops accommodation property across Australia. Its focus is the "value-for-money" end of the housing market. The business has two economic engines.
1. Rentals (recurring income).
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A pool of about 4,222 average dwellings and sites in FY26 (3,984 in FY25).
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Three property types: Residential, Lifestyle and Parks.
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FY26 rental revenue was A$76.0m, up 13%.
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FY26 net rental income (NRI) was A$42.4m, up 21%, at a 56% margin (52% in FY25).
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Average weekly gross rent per dwelling or site in FY26 was A$346, up 6%:
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Residential A$379 per week (up 4%)
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Lifestyle A$223 per week (up 5%)
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Parks A$380 per week (up 11%)
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Source: FY26 Results Announcement: 2. Development (transactional profit plus annuity creation).
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Aspen builds and sells new transportable or modular-style Lifestyle houses on land-lease sites. The FY26 average price was A$469k.
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It also sells residential land lots. The FY26 average price was A$341k, up 51%.
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FY26 development revenue was A$65.2m, up 65%.
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FY26 realised development profit was A$21.7m, up 71%.
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FY26 development margin was 33% and return on invested capital (ROIC) was 20%.
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Every Lifestyle house sold produces a development profit and a new land-lease site. That site then pays ground rent (about A$223 per week) to Aspen for the long term.
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Management states that realised development profit from Lifestyle house sales exceeded the total cost of producing the newly leased land sites. This "releases equity and increases debt funding capacity" (FY26 Results Announcement).
Revenue model
| Revenue type | Character | FY26 revenue (AUD Mn) | Share of FY26 total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Residential, Lifestyle and Parks rent, plus ancillary income and deferred management fees (DMF) | Recurring rental / service (short-stay Parks are hospitality-like) | 76.0 | 54% |
| Development sales (Lifestyle houses, residential land) | Transactional product sales | 65.2 | 46% |
| Total (management basis) | — | 141.2 | 100% |
Source: FY26 Results Announcement. The total is the sum of the rental and development revenue disclosed. For FY25, the management-basis sum (A$67.4m + A$39.5m = A$106.9m) matches statutory revenue from ordinary activities of A$106.917m exactly.
There is no subscription, licensing or IP-based revenue. Historically Aspen also earned funds management fees from unlisted vehicles such as the Aspen Parks Property Fund. Those vehicles have been wound down or absorbed, and the current disclosures do not present funds management as a reported revenue line.
Value chain position
Aspen is vertically integrated across:
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Site acquisition, typically opportunistic, below replacement cost, often from liquidators, mortgagees or not-for-profits
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Planning and development approvals
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Civil works
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Procurement and placement of homes
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Sales
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Ongoing property and community management
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Short-stay park operations
It is internally managed, with no external manager fee leakage. That arrangement dates from the 2019 decision to remain internally managed.
Customer types and end-markets
| Customer type | Product | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Lower-to-middle-income renting households (income below A$100k) | Residential leases | Rents are generally about 10% below market. The bottom 40% of households can afford only about 10% of advertised rentals, per Aspen's analysis in the FY26 announcement. |
| Over-50s and retirees, often on the Age Pension, downsizing | Lifestyle land-lease homes plus ground rent | Weekly land-lease costs are below the Commonwealth Rent Assistance cap for pensioner couples, per The Weekly SOURCE (May 2025). |
| Corporate tenants housing regional workforces | Furnished, serviced build-to-rent houses (Australind, WA) | FY26 announcement cites "strong corporate demand". |
| Tourists, holidaymakers, workers | Short-stay park cabins and sites | Seasonal, weather-exposed |
| Retirement village residents | Legacy retirement village (RV) licences with DMF | Acquired in ACH and ECH portfolios; being converted to residential leases on vacancy |
| Owner-occupier land buyers | Residential land lots | Mount Barker (SA), Ravenswood (WA), Coorong Quays (SA) and others |
Company's own description
Aspen describes itself as:
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A specialist provider of quality rental accommodation on competitive terms
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A proven low-cost producer
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Offering attractive rents and prices to customers while generating high returns for securityholders
Paraphrased from the May 2025 Equity Raising Presentation and the FY26 materials.
The FY26 results headline was "Open Road Ahead – Upgraded FY27 Guidance and New Development Approvals".
Independent characterisation
Aspen is best understood as a hybrid of three businesses:
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A small-cap residential and land-lease REIT
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A modest regional hospitality (parks) operator
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A capital-light-per-site developer
Its development pipeline is carried at only about A$35k per approved or planned site (FY26), well below the end value of a leased land-lease site. That gap is the core of its NAV accretion.
The group differs from larger land-lease peers in several ways:
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It has much lower price points (A$469k average house versus an Australian average dwelling price of about A$1.11m, per ABS March 2026 as cited by Aspen).
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It values leased sites at a higher capitalisation rate. Aspen uses a weighted average capitalisation rate (WACR) of 6.4% on newly leased Lifestyle sites, versus 5.00–5.25% that it says some competitors use. This makes its book values comparatively conservative.
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It is willing to recycle capital opportunistically across property types and states.
Earnings are increasingly development-weighted. FY27 guidance implies realised development profit of A$33m against NRI of A$44m. That raises cyclicality relative to Aspen's history as a rent-collector.
Strategy
Stated strategy (themes from FY25 and FY26 results materials)
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Affordable housing focus. Provide quality rental accommodation on competitive terms to households earning below A$100k, at rents below about A$500 per week.
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Low-cost producer. Acquire existing property below replacement cost and develop new supply at a highly competitive cost of production.
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Total value creation. Generate cash profits, pay distributions and grow NAV. Aim for at least 10% a year growth in underlying EPS over the medium term (May 2025 Equity Raising Presentation).
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Integrated rent plus develop model. Development crystallises margin while adding rent-paying sites to the recurring pool.
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Capital recycling. Sell assets where it is more beneficial to sell than to re-lease (legacy Perth houses, low-yield townhouses, short-stay parks) and redeploy into higher-return residential and lifestyle stock.
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Conservative valuation and leverage. WACR of about 7% (6.0% excluding Australind), development assets limited to 13% of total assets, and no reliance on development profits for covenant compliance.
Strategic initiatives in the last 24 months
| Initiative | Date | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Eureka investment exit | November 2024 – May 2025 | Full exit after the failed 2024 bid; proceeds used to reduce debt |
| Australind build-to-rent conversion | April 2025 onward | Former lithium workforce camp repositioned as BTR plus lifestyle; strong corporate demand for furnished houses |
| A$70m equity raising plus SPP | May–June 2025 | Deleveraging and funding acquisitions; equity raise expected to be neutral to EPS initially |
| Adelaide not-for-profit villa strategy | July 2025 (ACH, A$19m); August–September 2026 (ECH, A$40.5m) | Buy sub-scale RV stock and convert to residential leases on vacancy |
| New owned HQ | October 2025 | A$8.01m mixed-use HQ with branding opportunity |
| Pipeline expansion | FY26 | 716 new approvals; pipeline up 33% to 2,904 sites |
| Portfolio reweighting from parks | August 2026 | A$42.0m sale of two NSW parks plus Trigg sale for A$6.4m |
| Transition to tax-paying and franking | FY27 | Higher franked distributions |
There are no sustainability-linked targets or named cost-reduction programmes with quantified targets in the retrieved disclosures.
FY27 guidance (upgraded 18 August 2026)
| Underlying metric | FY26 actual | FY27 guidance | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net rental income (A$m) | 42 | 44 | 4 |
| Realised development profit (A$m) | 22 | 33 | 52 |
| Operating EBITDA (A$m) | 54 | 66 | 22 |
| Pre-tax EPS (cents) | 21.8 | 26.1 | 20 |
| DPS (cents) | 11.0 | 12.0 | 9 |
Other stated assumptions:
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240 settlements: 150 Lifestyle houses and 90 residential lots.
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Lifestyle rental leases growing 15–20% a year.
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Average gross rent per dwelling or site rising 4–5% a year.
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Effective tax rate of 10–15%.
Sources: FY26 Results Announcement; Quartr FY26 call summary: Guidance evolution for FY27 pre-tax EPS: 25.0 cents (February 2026), then 26.1 cents (August 2026).
Products & Services
Aspen does not publish a SKU-style catalogue. Its "products" are property types and named communities and projects. The following is assembled from disclosed project and property names; it is not exhaustive.
Residential
| Offering | Description | Target customer | Pricing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perth residential portfolio (WA) | Houses and apartments in metropolitan Perth, including Lynn Street, Trigg (sale contracted for A$6.4m, FY26 subsequent event) and a Maylands project (132 Guildford Road, FY23–24 refurbishment) | Lower-to-middle-income renters | FY26 Residential average rent A$379 per week; rents about 10% below market, rising 3–5% a year |
| Burleigh Heads townhouses (QLD) | Townhouses bought in 2020 from a mortgagee-in-possession sale. Up to A$18m earmarked for sale in 2024–25 because the net yield was below 3%. | Renters, then strata buyers | — |
| Newcastle (NSW) | Property bought in 2020 from a liquidator; about A$4.75m total cost | Renters | — |
| ACH Adelaide portfolio (SA) | 19 small retirement villages, 129 villas and apartments (including Spence on Light), about 32,000 sq m of land; A$19m (July 2025) | Existing RV residents (average age over 80); converted to residential leases on vacancy | Implied A$395k per unencumbered villa down to A$65k per RV-licence villa with 25% DMF; about 6% initial yield |
| ECH Adelaide portfolio (SA) | 198 villas across 20 inner-metropolitan properties (for example Lawrence Court, Walkerville; Brenda Court; Cavender Court; Clayton Court; Cungena; David Court; Day Court; Donald Court; Fuller Court; Grainger Court); A$40.5m, settled 9 September 2026 | Mix of RV residents, subsidised residential tenants, and vacant stock for re-letting | About A$205k per villa; about 6% expected net yield |
| Australind build-to-rent (Bunbury, WA) | Former Albemarle Kemerton lithium workforce camp, being converted to a residential rental and lifestyle community including furnished and serviced houses | Corporate tenants housing local workers; general renters | Not disclosed; NRI and ROIC expected to rise materially per FY26 |
Lifestyle (land-lease communities)
| Offering | Description | Target customer | Pricing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lifestyle community homes (portfolio-wide) | Resident buys a new home; Aspen retains land and charges site rent | Over-50s, pensioners, downsizers | FY26 average house price A$469k (58% below the Australian average dwelling price); average site rent A$223 per week |
| Aspen Normanville (Fleurieu Peninsula, SA) | Beachside project of 300 sites: 181 land-lease homes and 119 tourism sites | Retirees and tourists | — |
| Lewis Fields Retirement Village (Strathalbyn, SA) | 3.7 ha; bought for A$2.36m and independently valued at A$2.40m; 54 homes to be developed | Over-55s | DMF plus land lease |
| Australind (WA) | Part of the site is planned for lifestyle housing; transportable conversion under way per the 3Q FY26 update | Downsizers | — |
| Approved FY26 DA projects | 716 new dwellings or sites approved at Adelaide Caravan Park, Paralowie and Wallaroo (SA) and Australind, Ravenswood, Meadowbrooke and Glendalough (WA) | Mixed | — |
Parks (tourist and holiday parks)
| Offering | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Koala Shores Holiday Park (NSW) | Holiday park shown in FY26 materials | Held |
| Barlings Beach Holiday Park (NSW) | Coastal park | Conditional sale with Black Dolphin for A$42.0m, settling September–October 2026 |
| Black Dolphin Park (NSW) | Coastal park | Being sold (as above) |
| Adelaide Caravan Park (inner Adelaide, SA) | Bought for A$9.25m (about 9.4% initial yield); FY26 DA approval for redevelopment | Held; redevelopment |
| Other parks | Remaining parks portfolio | Not disclosed in detail |
FY26 Parks average rent rose 11% to A$380 per week. Short-stay performance was mixed. Management attributes part of this to disruptive refurbishments and a deliberate push for higher tariffs at the expense of occupancy.
Development – residential land
| Project | State | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Mount Barker | SA | New stages launched in 2026 (3Q FY26 update) |
| Ravenswood | WA | Acquired before May 2025; new stages launched in 2026; FY26 DA approvals |
| Coorong Quays (Hindmarsh Island) | SA | Acquired 1 June 2022; land sales |
| Mount Barker and Ravenswood combined | SA / WA | 90 residential lots launching (3Q FY26) |
FY26 residential land average price was A$341k, up 51%. FY27 guidance assumes 240 settlements: 150 Lifestyle houses and 90 residential land lots. Source: Quartr summary of FY26 call; the 3Q update referred to earlier guidance of 220.
Pipeline summary (30 June 2026)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Approved and planned development sites | 2,904 (up 33%) |
| Number of projects | 25 |
| Total dwellings and sites, rental plus pipeline | 7,222 (6,344 at 30 June 2025) |
| Book value of development assets | A$122m (A$93m at 30 June 2025) |
| Book value per pipeline site | About A$35k |
| Closing contracts on hand | 128 (39 at 30 June 2025) |
Financial Narrative
Basis: Aspen reports "Underlying Operating Earnings" (non-IFRS) as its primary performance measure, plus statutory profit and Total / Pre-Tax Comprehensive Income (which includes revaluations).
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Concepts such as gross profit, operating income and ROIC in the conventional corporate sense are not reported for a property group of this kind.
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Where a metric is not disclosed it is listed in the "Not disclosed" tables rather than estimated.
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Figures marked (derived) are back-calculated from disclosed growth rates.
Income statement and per-security metrics
Sources and notes:
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FY22 EPS: FY22 Results Presentation.
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FY23: FY23 Results Announcement.
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FY24: FY24 Results Announcement. FY24 revenue is (derived) from FY25 growth of 17%. FY24 EBITDA is (derived) from FY25 growth of 29%; the 29 May 2024 upgrade had estimated A$31.5m. FY24 statutory profit is (derived) from FY25 growth of 18%.
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FY25: Appendix 4E FY25.
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FY26: FY26 Results Announcement. FY26 revenue is rental plus development revenue (management basis).
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FY22 DPS of 6.60 cents is consistent with FY23's 7.75 cents being "up 17%".
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FY24 "Total comprehensive income before tax" is labelled 38.2 cents per security in the FY24 announcement.
Margins and growth
Calculated from 6.1. Statutory net margin is inflated by revaluation gains flowing through profit.
CAGRs:
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Underlying EPS FY22–FY26: (21.8 / 8.65)^(1/4) − 1 = about 26% a year.
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DPS FY22–FY26: about 14% a year.
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Revenue FY24–FY26: about 24% a year (using derived FY24).
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FY25 presentation figures: five-year compound EPS growth of 20% and NAV growth of 17%.
Balance sheet
Notes:
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FY22 NAV is (derived) from FY23 NAV of A$2.01 being "up 13%".
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FY23 and FY24 NAV were reported on the pre-DTL basis used at the time. FY25 and FY26 are ex-DTL.
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Net debt was about A$145m (gearing 23%) after the November 2024 Eureka sell-down. Pro-forma gearing was about 17% after the May 2025 placement (Australian Property Journal; ASX 15 May 2025).
Not disclosed in retrieved material (balance sheet):
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Total assets and cash and equivalents as separate line items
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Gross debt split between short and long term
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Goodwill and intangibles (expected to be nil or immaterial for a property group)
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Working capital
These will be in the FY26 Annual Report (16 October 2026).
Cash flow
Source: FY24 Results Announcement: Not disclosed in retrieved material (cash flow):
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Operating cash flow for FY22, FY23, FY25 and FY26
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Capex, split between acquisitions, development and refurbishment
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Free cash flow
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Dividends paid in A$
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Buybacks. None identified in FY22–FY26; capital was raised rather than returned.
Third-party data (iocharts, March 2026) cited trailing free cash flow per security of about A$0.25 and a price-to-FCF of about 21x.
Ratios
Notes:
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FY26 ROE is reported. FY25 ROE is calculated as 38.0 cents divided by the opening FY25 NAV of A$2.23 (about 17%).
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Management reported a five-year average ROE of 24% (FY25 presentation).
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FNArena shows Debt/EBITDA of 4.53x. That figure likely uses gross debt and/or statutory EBITDA and conflicts with the 2.8x calculated here on net financial debt and underlying EBITDA. Both are noted.
Not meaningful or not disclosed: ROA, ROIC (corporate definition), current ratio, asset turnover and cash conversion cycle. Aspen discloses a development ROIC: 18% in FY23, 18% in FY25 and 20% in FY26. The FY23 figure was cited as 18% "despite building industry turmoil".
Commentary on trends, inflections and drivers
Earnings acceleration (FY23–FY26). Underlying EPS grew 39%, 15%, 22% and 30% in successive years. The FY24 slowdown reflected interest expense "more than doubling" as debt costs normalised. Guidance then assumed about a 6% average cost of debt (FY23 announcement). Growth re-accelerated in FY25–FY26 for four reasons:
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NRI margin expansion from about 50% to 56%, through refurbishment, cost control and portfolio mix.
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A step-change in development settlements, from 111 to 161, with contracted sales up 117% to 252.
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Deleveraging from the A$70m May 2025 equity raise and the Eureka exit.
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Rent growth of 3–5% a year on long-stay stock that is essentially fully occupied.
Inflection to taxpayer. FY26 was the last year sheltered by historic tax losses. Post-tax EPS of 21.6 cents was only marginally below pre-tax EPS of 21.8 cents. From FY27 an effective tax rate of 10–15% will open a wider gap between pre-tax and post-tax EPS. Bell Potter's FY27 post-tax EPS estimate of 23.1 cents compares with company pre-tax guidance of 26.1 cents. In exchange, a higher proportion of distributions will be franked; the FY26 final distribution was 36% franked.
Re-leveraging. Net financial debt rose 76% to A$153m in FY26. LTV rose from 17% to 22% as Aspen bought the ACH portfolio and HQ and funded development inventory. Contracted acquisitions (ECH, A$40.5m) and disposals (A$48.4m) after year end are roughly balanced.
Revaluation-driven statutory profit. Statutory profit (A$72.6m in FY26) consistently exceeds underlying earnings (A$49.6m). The gap comes from fair-value gains on investment properties and NAV uplift on newly leased Lifestyle sites (A$2.9m in FY26). That uplift is excluded from development profit, a point management emphasises as a conservative accounting choice versus peers.
Payout policy. The payout ratio fell from 65% to 50%. Earnings are being retained to self-fund development, consistent with the FY22 policy shift.
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Operating Stream Details
| Operating stream | Contents | Products and services |
|---|---|---|
Rentals – Residential | Houses, apartments, villas and townhouses on residential leases; former RV villas converted on vacancy; BTR housing at Australind | Long-term residential tenancies, furnished corporate housing |
Rentals – Lifestyle | Land-lease communities (residents own the home and lease the land) and some legacy RV / DMF | Ground rent, DMF, ancillary |
Rentals – Parks | Tourist and holiday parks with mixed short and long stay | Cabin and site nightly tariffs, long-stay rents |
Development | Lifestyle house production and sale; residential land subdivision and sale | New homes on land-lease sites; land lots |
Revenue by Segment and Segment Margins & Growth (%)
| Metric | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|
Rental revenue (AUD Mn) | 61.8 | 67.4 | 76.0 |
Net rental income (AUD Mn) | 30.7 | 35.0 | 42.4 |
NRI margin (%) | 50 | 52 | 56 |
Development revenue (AUD Mn) | 29.3 | 39.5 | 65.2 |
Realised development profit (AUD Mn) | 8.6 | 12.7 | 21.7 |
Development profit margin (%) | 30 | 32 | 33 |
Development ROIC (%) | 18 | 18 | 20 |
Segment Margins & Growth (%) and Revenue by Segment (%)
| Metric | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|
Rental revenue growth (%) | 9 | 13 |
NRI growth (%) | 14 | 21 |
Development revenue growth (%) | 35 | 65 |
Development profit growth (%) | 47 | 71 |
Rental share of revenue (%) | 63 | 54 |
Development share of revenue (%) | 37 | 46 |
Rental share of NRI plus development profit (%) | 73 | 66 |
Development share of NRI plus development profit (%) | 27 | 34 |
Revenue by Segment (AUD)
| Property type | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|
Residential rent per week (AUD) | 364 | 379 |
Lifestyle rent per week (AUD) | 212 | 223 |
Parks rent per week (AUD) | 342 | 380 |
Total portfolio rent per week (AUD) | 325 | 346 |
Income Statement and Per-Share Data
| Metric | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue from ordinary activities (AUD Mn) | — | — | 91.4 | 106.9 | 141.2 |
Underlying EBITDA (AUD Mn) | — | 24.6 | 32.1 | 41.4 | 54.2 |
Underlying operating earnings (AUD Mn) | — | 20.9 | 25.3 | 34.1 | 49.6 |
Statutory profit after tax (AUD Mn) | — | 54.4 | 48.3 | 57.1 | 72.6 |
Underlying EPS, pre-tax (cents) | 8.65 | 12.00 | 13.81 | 16.80 | 21.80 |
Underlying EPS, post-tax (cents) | 8.65 | 12.00 | 13.81 | 16.80 | 21.60 |
Statutory EPS (cents) | — | 31.22 | — | — | — |
Distribution per security (cents) | 6.60 | 7.75 | 8.50 | 10.00 | 11.00 |
Pre-tax comprehensive income per security (cents) | — | — | 38.2 | 38.0 | 44.6 |
Financial Analysis
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
Gross profit | Not reported as such. Closest analogue is NRI plus development profit: FY25 A$47.7m, FY26 A$64.1m. |
Operating income (EBIT) | Not reported; underlying EBITDA is used |
Margin Analysis (%)
| Metric | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Underlying EBITDA margin on revenue (%) | — | 35.1 | 38.7 | 38.4 |
Underlying operating earnings margin (%) | — | 27.7 | 31.9 | 35.1 |
Statutory net margin (%) | — | 52.8 | 53.4 | 51.4 |
Underlying EPS growth (%) | 39 | 15 | 22 | 30 |
DPS growth (%) | 17 | 10 | 18 | 10 |
Payout ratio, DPS / underlying EPS (%) | 65 | 62 | 60 | 50 |
Key Financials and Per-Share Data
| Metric | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Book value of rental pool, excluding spare land (AUD Mn) | — | — | — | 588 | 701 |
Book value of development assets (AUD Mn) | — | — | — | 93 | 122 |
Book value of property and inventory (AUD Mn) | — | — | — | 681 | 834 |
Net financial debt (AUD Mn) | — | — | — | 87 | 153 |
Provision for DTL (AUD Mn) | — | — | — | 30 | 55 |
Net asset value, statutory (AUD Mn) | — | — | — | 546 | 601 |
NAV excluding DTL (AUD Mn) | — | — | — | 576 | 656 |
NAV per security (AUD) | 1.78 | 2.01 | 2.23 | 2.54 | 2.88 |
Loan-to-value ratio, covenant definition (%) | — | — | — | 17 | 22 |
Interest cover ratio, covenant definition (x) | — | — | — | 4.6 | 6.2 |
WACR on investment properties (%) | — | — | — | 6.9 | 7.0 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | FY24 |
|---|---|
Net operating cash flow, including dividends received, interest and tax paid (AUD Mn) | 22.1 |
Margin Analysis (%) and Financial Ratios (x)
| Ratio | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|
ROE: pre-tax comprehensive income / opening NAV ex-DTL (%) | 16.6 | 18.0 |
Net financial debt / underlying EBITDA (x) | 2.1 | 2.8 |
Interest cover, covenant (x) | 4.6 | 6.2 |
LTV, covenant (%) | 17 | 22 |
NAV ex-DTL growth per security (%) | 14 | 13 |
State Details
| State | Known exposures | Direction |
|---|---|---|
Western Australia | Perth residential portfolio (selectively recycled); Australind / Bunbury BTR and lifestyle; Ravenswood land; Meadowbrooke and Glendalough approvals | Growing (Australind, Ravenswood) while recycling legacy Perth houses (Lynn Street, Trigg sale) |
South Australia | Adelaide villas (ACH 129, ECH 198); Adelaide Caravan Park; Mount Barker; Coorong Quays; Strathalbyn; Normanville; Paralowie; Wallaroo | Fastest-growing state exposure. About A$60m of villa acquisitions in about 14 months, plus most FY26 DA approvals. |
New South Wales | Holiday parks (Koala Shores; Barlings Beach and Black Dolphin being sold); Newcastle; Sydney HQ | Declining weighting after the A$42.0m parks sale |
Queensland | Burleigh Heads townhouses (partly sold down) | Declining |
Revenue by Region
| Stream | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|
Rental revenue (AUD Mn) | 61.8 | 67.4 | 76.0 |
Development revenue (AUD Mn) | 29.3 | 39.5 | 65.2 |
Share Price History
| Period | Start price | End / latest price | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
Calendar 2025 | 2.46 | 5.79 | 135 |
FY26 (1 July 2025 – 30 June 2026) | 3.88 | 5.21 | 34 |
Calendar 2026 to date | 5.71 | 5.17 | −9.5 |
FY27 to date | 5.28 | 5.17 | −2.1 |
Valuation Snapshot
| Multiple | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
Market cap | About A$1,177m | — |
Enterprise value | About A$1,330m | Plus net financial debt of A$153m |
Price / NAV ex-DTL | 1.80x | NAV A$2.88 |
Price / statutory NAV | About 1.96x | Consistent with FNArena P/BV of 1.96 |
P/E, FY26 underlying pre-tax EPS | 23.7x | 21.8 cents |
P/E, FY27 guidance pre-tax EPS | 19.8x | 26.1 cents |
EV / FY26 underlying EBITDA | 24.5x | A$54.2m |
EV / FY27 guidance EBITDA | 20.2x | A$66m |
EV / FY26 revenue | 9.4x | A$141.2m |
Distribution yield, FY26 DPS | 2.1% | 11.0 cents |
Distribution yield, FY27 guidance | 2.3% | 12.0 cents |
Analyst Ratings & Targets
| Broker | Rating | Target (AUD) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
Bell Potter | Buy | 6.65 (from 6.50) | FY27 forecast EPS 23.1 cents (post-tax), DPS 12.0 cents |
Jarden | Overweight | 5.85 (from 5.65) | About 12% three-year EPS CAGR; about 10% three-year NAV CAGR; notes an elevated premium to NAV |
Per-Share Data
| Metric | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DPS (cents) | 6.60 | 7.75 | 8.50 | 10.00 | 11.00 |
Share Price & Returns
| Date | Type | Amount | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
May–June 2020 | Placement plus SPP | A$17m + A$3m | — |
May–June 2025 | Placement plus SPP | About A$70.2m + up to A$4m | A$2.90 |
Analyst Conclusions
Management guidance (FY27)
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Underlying operating EBITDA of A$66m (up 22%)
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Pre-tax EPS of 26.1 cents (up 20%)
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DPS of 12.0 cents (up 9%)
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NRI of A$44m (up 4%)
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Realised development profit of A$33m (up 52%)
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240 settlements
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Effective tax rate of 10–15%
The medium-term aspiration remains at least 10% a year growth in underlying EPS.
Consensus
Broker consensus is limited (two to three brokers). Bell Potter's FY27 post-tax EPS is 23.1 cents. Jarden expects about 12% three-year EPS CAGR.
Bull case
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Structural demand plus cost advantage. Long-stay stock is essentially fully occupied, rents are about 10% below market and rising 3–5% a year, and the pipeline costs about A$35k per site. This supports sustained double-digit EPS and NAV growth, as Aspen has delivered for four consecutive years.
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Repeatable acquisition channel. Not-for-profit villa portfolios priced at A$205k–A$395k per dwelling, at about 6% yields, can be converted to market-rent residential over time and add NAV.
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Balance sheet optionality. LTV of 22% and ICR of 6.2x give capacity to buy counter-cyclically. Development profit now self-funds land-lease site creation.
Bear case
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Earnings mix shift. FY27 growth is driven mostly by development (+52%) while NRI grows only 4%, partly because of disposals. A housing slowdown would hit the fastest-growing earnings line.
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Valuation. At about 1.8x NAV ex-DTL, about 20x FY27 pre-tax EPS and about 2.3% yield, the stock prices in continued execution. The February 2026 sell-off (−7% on an upgrade) shows sensitivity.
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Governance and key-person concentration. Two founder-style Joint CEOs, a five-member board, a long-tenured Chair, and insider selling in March 2026.
Catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)
| Timing | Item |
|---|---|
| 16 October 2026 | FY26 Annual Report: remuneration, auditor, top holders, debt maturities |
| September–October 2026 | Settlement of NSW parks (A$42.0m) and Trigg (A$6.4m) |
| November 2026 | AGM and likely 1Q FY27 update; tracking against 240 settlements |
| February 2027 | HY27 results; first period with meaningful tax expense and franking |
| Ongoing | Australind BTR leasing; RV-to-residential conversion rates in Adelaide; new acquisitions; state tenancy and land-lease regulation; interest rate path |
Analyst verdict
Aspen Group has turned a troubled, externally challenged Perth property group into one of the most consistent compounders in the Australian small-cap real estate sector.
Since internal management under Joint CEOs Dixon and Carter was confirmed in 2019, results have been strong:
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Underlying EPS rose from 8.65 cents (FY22) to 21.8 cents (FY26), about a 26% a year CAGR.
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NAV per security rose from about A$1.78 to A$2.88.
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Distributions grew about 14% a year.
The core thesis is credible and well evidenced. Australia's affordable rental segment is structurally short of supply. Aspen buys and builds below replacement cost, keeps rents about 10% below market, and turns development margin into permanent rent-paying land-lease sites. FY26 showed every lever working at once: a 4-point expansion in NRI margin, 71% growth in development profit, 20% development ROIC and 716 new approvals.
The debate now is about price and earnings quality, not business quality. At about 1.8x NAV ex-DTL and about 20x FY27 pre-tax guidance, the market is paying for continued 15–20% growth. FY27 guidance leans on development profit rising 52%, while recurring NRI growth slows to 4% because of portfolio recycling. The move to tax-paying status will widen the gap between headline pre-tax EPS and post-tax EPS. Bell Potter, for example, forecasts 23.1 cents post-tax against 26.1 cents pre-tax guidance.
Disclosure gaps also limit institutional-grade diligence, at least until the 16 October Annual Report. These include no geographic split, no employee or ESG metrics and no debt maturity detail.
On balance: Aspen deserves a premium rating for its execution, conservative valuation practices and balance-sheet discipline. Upside from here depends on delivering the 240-settlement FY27 programme and redeploying recycled capital at the 6%-plus yields achieved in Adelaide. Investors should watch settlement run-rates, conversion progress at the Adelaide villa portfolios and Australind, and any regulatory moves on rents or land lease. Any of these could compress the premium quickly.
All figures are in A$ for fiscal years ending 30 June unless stated. "Underlying" metrics are non-IFRS measures as defined by Aspen.
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View Subscription PlansExecutive Leadership
Executive Leadership Team
| Name | Title | Appointed | Background | Education |
|---|---|---|---|---|
David Dixon | Joint CEO; Joint Company Secretary; Executive Director (board listing from 22 November 2023 per InvestSMART) | Joint CEO 14 March 2019 | More than 29 years (as at 2019) in real estate and financial markets. Started at Bankers Trust funds management in 1989. Led Morgan Stanley's Australian real estate investment banking business; over A$50bn of M&A and restructuring and A$15bn of capital raisings (Westfield, Lend Lease, DEXUS). Co-owner of Mill Hill Capital. | — |
John Carter | Joint CEO; Executive Director | NED 23 February 2015; Joint CEO and Executive Director 14 March 2019 | More than 35 years' experience. Founded Mill Hill Capital (2004). UBS Head of Real Estate 1991–2001; MD and Co-Head of Equities on UBS's Australian Executive Committee 2001–04; led over A$30bn of M&A and capital raising. | Undergraduate degree, University of South Australia (per MarketScreener) |
Mark Licciardo | Co-Company Secretary | — | Corporate governance services (outsourced company secretarial) | — |
“—” = not publicly disclosed.
Board of Directors
| Name | Role | Appointed | Independence | Committees | Background |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Guy Farrands | Non-Executive Chair | Director 26 November 2012; Chair 15 November 2024 | Independent (tenure about 14 years may challenge independence under ASX guidance) | Former Audit Committee Chair | Over 35 years in property. Former MD/CEO of ALE Property Group, GEO Property Group and Valad Property Group; CFO of Viva Energy REIT (now Waypoint REIT); Macquarie Bank real estate division director; JLL. |
Edwina Gilbert | Non-Executive Director | 18 August 2023 | Independent | Chair, Remuneration and Nomination Committee (from 19 March 2026) | Over 20 years in automotive retail; former Executive Chair, Phil Gilbert Motor Group; former NSW Chair of the Hyundai Dealer Council; former board member, Australian Automotive Dealer Association |
John Freedman | Non-Executive Director | 25 September 2024 | Independent | Chair, Audit, Risk and Compliance Committee (from 15 November 2025) | NED of Advantaged Care Group (private aged care) and of My Foundations Youth Housing (not-for-profit) |
John Carter | Executive Director, Joint CEO | 23 February 2015 | Not independent | — | See above |
David Dixon | Executive Director, Joint CEO | Board listing 22 November 2023 | Not independent | — | See above |
Major Shareholders
| Holder | Stake | Date / source |
|---|---|---|
Magellan Financial Group (MFG) | 6.12% (rose from 5.09% after buying 2,393,818 securities for about A$10.1m) | — |
Unnamed new substantial holder | 5% or more | — |
John Carter (Joint CEO), direct and indirect | About 7.57m securities (about 3.3%) | MarketScreener, August 2026. He sold 1.5m securities at A$5.70 on 10 March 2026 (about A$8.6m). |
Guy Farrands (Chair) | 221,390 indirect | 30 June 2025 (Market Index) |
Cooper Investors | — | May 2025 |
Competitive Landscape
Competitors by Segment
| Segment | Competitor | Type | Relative positioning |
|---|---|---|---|
Lifestyle (land lease) | Ingenia Communities (ASX: INA) | Listed | Much larger, national land-lease and holiday parks operator; higher price points |
Lifestyle | Lifestyle Communities (ASX: LIC) | Listed | Victorian pure-play land lease; premium product; recent operational and regulatory challenges |
Lifestyle | GemLife (ASX listed 2025) | Listed | Premium over-50s resorts (QLD, NSW, VIC) |
Lifestyle | Stockland land lease (ASX: SGP) | Listed diversified | Large-scale land lease developer within a major REIT |
Lifestyle | Hometown Australia; Serenitas; Halcyon | Private / institutional | Well-capitalised private consolidators |
Seniors rental | Eureka Group Holdings (ASX: EGH) | Listed | Closest affordable-seniors-rental peer; former Aspen bid target |
Residential / BTR | Mirvac, Greystar, Home (Sunsuper / Super funds), Lendlease BTR | Listed / private | Institutional BTR at much higher rent points (apartments) |
Parks | Discovery Parks; NRMA Parks and Resorts (G'day Group); Tasman Holiday Parks; BIG4 network members | Private | Larger national park networks |
Residential land | Regional and national developers (for example Stockland, local developers in SA and WA) | Mixed | Aspen is a small participant |
Social / community housing | Community housing providers | Not-for-profit | Overlapping target tenants; also a source of acquisitions |
Competitor Detail
| Metric | Aspen Group FY26 |
|---|---|
Revenue | A$141.2m (management basis) |
Underlying EPS growth | 30% |
NRI margin | 56% |
Recent Developments
There were no layoffs, litigation, regulatory actions or guidance downgrades in the period.
