AT&T Overview
AT&T Inc. is the United States' largest telecommunications carrier by wireless subscribers and, since 2022, a deliberately narrowed connectivity pure-play. Having divested WarnerMedia, Vrio, Xandr and its DIRECTV stake, management has concentrated capital on two physical assets it believes are structurally scarce: a nationwide low- and mid-band spectrum portfolio and the largest fibre-to-the-premises footprint in America. The 2026 reorganisation into "Advanced Connectivity" and "Legacy" segments makes the thesis explicit — grow 5G and fibre revenue fast enough to outrun a deliberately accelerated shutdown of the copper network by year-end 2029. The February 2026 acquisition of Lumen's Mass Markets fibre business and the July 2026 USD 23 billion EchoStar spectrum purchase are the capital expressions of that thesis. AT&T is therefore best understood not as a diversified media-telecom conglomerate but as a leveraged, cash-generative infrastructure operator making a concentrated bet that converged fibre-plus-wireless bundles will defend pricing in a three-player wireless oligopoly.
The company's own description
In its Form 10-K for FY2025, AT&T describes itself as a holding company whose subsidiaries and affiliates provide wireless and wireline telecommunications and related services. The filing organises operations for FY2025 into two reportable segments — Communications (comprising the Mobility, Business Wireline and Consumer Wireline business units) and Latin America (the Mexican wireless business). The 10-K characterises Mobility as providing nationwide wireless service and equipment; Business Wireline as providing advanced ethernet-based fibre services, fixed wireless services, IP voice and managed professional services, together with legacy voice and data services and related equipment, to business customers; and Consumer Wireline as providing broadband services including multi-gig fibre connections and AT&T Internet Air, plus legacy telephony voice, to residential customers. The Latin America segment is disclosed as accounting for approximately 3 percent of total segment operating revenues in both 2025 and 2024 and less than 1 percent of segment operating income in both years.
Effective with first-quarter 2026 reporting, AT&T realigned its internal management and reporting structure. The 8-K of 22 April 2026 states that the realignment reflects "the evolution of our business model to focus on delivering converged advanced connectivity services across 5G and fibre to consumer and business customers" and that the new structure "provides better visibility into the progress of exiting our copper-based Legacy operations." The three current reportable segments are Advanced Connectivity, Legacy and Latin America.
In its standard corporate boilerplate as of July 2026, AT&T states that it helps "more than 100 million U.S. families, friends and neighbors, plus nearly 2.5 million businesses" connect, and references "the first phone call 150 years ago" — a change from the "140+ years ago" formulation used in the January 2026 release, reflecting the 2026 sesquicentennial of Alexander Graham Bell's telephone patent.
Independent characterisation
AT&T is a capital-intensive, subscription-led network operator. Roughly nine-tenths of consolidated revenue is now generated by the Advanced Connectivity segment (AT&T disclosed in January 2026 that on a recast basis the segment contributed approximately 90 percent of consolidated revenues in 2025). The economics are those of an infrastructure utility with a consumer-marketing overlay: very high fixed costs, low incremental cost per subscriber, and returns determined principally by penetration of built passings and by churn.
Revenue model. The mix is overwhelmingly recurring service revenue with a material, low-margin device pass-through. In the second quarter of 2026, Advanced Connectivity operating revenues of USD 28,615 million comprised USD 23,478 million of service revenue (82.0 percent) and USD 5,137 million of equipment revenue (18.0 percent). Within service revenue the composition was: wireless service USD 17,413 million; advanced home internet USD 2,926 million; business fibre and advanced connectivity USD 1,946 million; business transitional and other USD 1,042 million; other service USD 151 million. There is effectively no licensing revenue and no software-subscription revenue of consequence; the cybersecurity software business was contributed to the LevelBlue joint venture in 2024 and the media/licensing businesses were divested in 2022.
Value chain position. AT&T is a vertically integrated owner-operator of the access layer. It owns spectrum licences (carrying value USD 128,148 million net at 31 December 2025), radio access network equipment, backhaul, long-haul transport, central offices and, increasingly, fibre-to-the-premises plant (net property, plant and equipment of USD 131,559 million at 31 December 2025). It does not manufacture equipment (Ericsson and Nokia are the principal RAN vendors) and it no longer owns content (divested 2022) or satellite video distribution (DIRECTV stake sold 2025). Following the Lumen transaction, AT&T has begun to unbundle even network ownership: the acquired fibre plant was placed in a wholly owned subsidiary, "Forged Fiber," in which AT&T intends to sell a controlling interest to a co-investing equity partner, with the subsidiary classified as held-for-sale and reported as discontinued operations. This is a meaningful strategic signal — AT&T is willing to separate the customer relationship (retained) from the passive infrastructure (partially syndicated).
Customer types and end markets. Three demand pools: (i) US consumer households — postpaid and prepaid wireless, fibre broadband, fixed wireless access; (ii) US businesses of all sizes, from small business through Fortune 500 and public sector, including the FirstNet public-safety network; (iii) Mexican consumers and businesses through AT&T Mexico and Unefon. Wholesale is a fourth, smaller pool: AT&T is the primary network services partner to EchoStar's Boost Mobile under an enhanced long-term wholesale agreement struck alongside the 2025 spectrum deal, and it sells wholesale transport to carriers and hyperscalers.
Where the money is actually made. Wireless service revenue is the profit engine. In the fourth quarter of 2025 the Mobility business unit generated USD 24,354 million of revenue and USD 9,163 million of EBITDA — an EBITDA service margin of 54.0 percent. Consumer fibre is the growth engine, with FY2025 consumer fibre revenue of USD 8.6 billion, up 17.0 percent. The Legacy copper business is a melting ice cube being deliberately accelerated: second-quarter 2026 Legacy revenue of USD 1,632 million was down 25.9 percent year over year, with operating income and EBITDA of USD 523 million, down 45.5 percent.
Strategy
Stated strategy
Management's framing, in Mr Stankey's own words from the fourth-quarter 2025 release: "With new investments in spectrum and fiber, we're set to win more customers in more categories and geographies across the U.S. Backed by the best assets in the industry, we are accelerating our strategy to deliver improved growth, the best customer experience and enhanced returns for shareholders over the next three years." In the second-quarter 2026 release he sharpened it: "The accelerated growth we delivered this quarter shows our structural advantages to lead the next era of connectivity... With an industry-leading position in fiber — the best connectivity technology available — we believe our network performance and operating scale can't be matched."
The recurring themes are: investment-led (capital deployed ahead of returns), customer-centric (simplification of pricing and satisfaction leadership as a churn instrument), and convergence (fibre plus wireless in the same household as the unit of value). The convergence rate — 42.5 percent of advanced home internet households also taking AT&T wireless at 30 June 2026, up from 42 percent at year-end 2025 — is the single metric management has elevated above all others.
Strategic initiatives announced in the last 24 months
| Date | Initiative | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 2024 | Analyst and Investor Day capital plan | Multi-year framework; USD 10 billion share repurchase authorisation |
| May 2025 | Lumen Mass Markets fibre acquisition agreed | USD 5.75 billion; target of approximately 60 million total fibre locations by year-end 2030 |
| Aug 2025 | EchoStar spectrum agreement | Approximately USD 23 billion for approximately 50 MHz; enhanced wholesale agreement making AT&T Boost Mobile's primary network partner and enabling EchoStar to operate as a hybrid MNO |
| Jan 2026 | Segment realignment | Advanced Connectivity / Legacy / Latin America from 1Q2026; recast history for 2023–2025 published |
| Jan 2026 | 2026–2028 long-term outlook and capital return plan | USD 45 billion-plus to shareholders 2026–2028; second USD 10 billion buyback authorisation |
| Feb 2026 | Lumen close and Forged Fiber structure | Fibre plant placed in a wholly owned subsidiary; controlling interest to be sold to a co-investing equity partner; classified as discontinued operations |
| Feb 2026 | Fibre build acceleration | Four million passings in 2026, five million annually thereafter |
| May 2026 | AT&T / T-Mobile / Verizon joint venture | Announced 14 May 2026 to address coverage dead zones in underserved remote regions |
| May 2026 | California commitment | USD 19 billion to modernise California's network away from copper |
| May–Jun 2026 | Consumer pricing simplification | Build-A-Plan (21 May), Simple Fiber Plans (3 June), Unlimited Day Pass (10 June), Build-A-Plan home internet extension (30 June) |
| Jun 2026 | CFO succession | Desroches retirement announced; Biry appointed Deputy CFO and CFO-designate |
| Jul 2026 | Buyback acceleration | 2026 repurchase pace raised from approximately USD 8 billion to approximately USD 10 billion |
| Jul 2026 | EchoStar close and financing | USD 14.5 billion drawn across a two-year (USD 11.5 billion) and 364-day (USD 3.0 billion) term loan under a USD 17.5 billion delayed-draw facility; USD 2.4 billion FCC-mandated trust fund funded with AT&T cash |
| Aug 2026 | Ericsson network programme | Nationwide wireless capacity, coverage and performance enhancement announced 6 August 2026 |
| Aug 2026 | Open-weight AI strategy | AT&T reported by the Wall Street Journal to be betting on open-weight AI models for internal deployment |
| Sep 2026 | Skilled trades coalition | AT&T joined the Building Futures Skilled Trades Coalition, a workforce initiative targeting training for one million tradespeople |
Medium-term financial targets (2026–2028)
| Target | Detail |
|---|---|
| Consolidated service revenue growth | Low-single-digit range annually |
| Advanced Connectivity service revenue growth | Mid-single-digit range annually; 5 percent-plus in 2026 (including approximately 100 basis points from the acquired Lumen retail fibre subscribers) |
| Legacy service revenue | Decline of 20 percent-plus in 2026; immaterial by end-2029 |
| Adjusted EBITDA growth | 3 to 4 percent in 2026, improving to 5 percent or better in 2028 |
| Advanced Connectivity EBITDA growth | Mid-to-high-single-digit annually; 6 percent-plus in 2026 |
| Legacy EBITDA | Expected to turn negative after 2027 until direct copper operating costs are substantially eliminated |
| Adjusted EPS | USD 2.25 to USD 2.35 in 2026, with a double-digit three-year CAGR through 2028; the Lumen and EchoStar acquisitions modestly dilutive in 2026–2027, accretive from 2028 |
| Capital investment | USD 23 billion to USD 24 billion annually, 2026–2028 |
| Free cash flow | USD 18 billion-plus in 2026, USD 19 billion-plus in 2027, USD 21 billion-plus in 2028 |
| Cash taxes | USD 1.0 billion to USD 1.5 billion in 2026 |
| Pension contributions | Approximately USD 350 million in 2026, with no significant additional contributions expected until 2030 |
| Shareholder returns | USD 45 billion-plus during 2026–2028; annualised dividend maintained at USD 1.11 per share; approximately USD 24 billion of repurchases including approximately USD 10 billion in 2026 |
| Leverage | Net debt to adjusted EBITDA of approximately 3.2x post-transactions, approximately 3.0x by end-2026, returning to the 2.5x range within approximately three years of the EchoStar close |
| Fibre footprint | More than 40 million total locations by end-2026; more than 60 million by end-2030 |
Source: 8-K exhibits 99.1 dated 28 January 2026, 22 April 2026 and 22 July 2026. All guidance is on a continuing-operations basis and excludes discontinued operations (Forged Fiber). All of it was reiterated at the second quarter.
Products & Services
Advanced Connectivity — consumer wireless
| Metric | 4Q2024 | 4Q2025 | 1Q2026 | 2Q2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Postpaid phone net adds (000) | 482 | 421 | 294 | 432 |
| Postpaid net adds (000) | 839 | 641 | — | — |
| Total wireless net adds (000) | 1,813 | 1,157 | — | — |
| Postpaid phone churn (%) | 0.85 | 0.98 | — | 0.86 |
| Postpaid churn (%) | 1.00 | 1.12 | — | — |
| Prepaid churn (%) | 2.73 | 2.89 | — | — |
| Postpaid phone ARPU (USD) | 56.72 | 56.57 | — | — |
AT&T Unlimited Your Way. The flagship postpaid consumer wireless architecture, allowing each line on an account to be assigned a different unlimited tier. AT&T announced an expansion of the lineup in the first half of 2026. Target customer: multi-line households. Pricing: per-line tiered, with discounts scaling by line count; specific rate-card pricing varies and is not consolidated in filings.
Build-A-Plan. Launched 21 May 2026, with connectivity available from 27 May 2026. A fully modular wireless plan starting at USD 15.00 per month that customers can adjust month to month, adding or removing services without contract. Extended on 30 June 2026 to allow home internet to be added within the same construct. Target customer: price-sensitive and variable-usage consumers; a direct answer to prepaid and MVNO leakage. This is the single most significant consumer packaging change of the current cycle because it converts a fixed bundle into an à-la-carte subscription.
Unlimited Day Pass. Launched 10 June 2026. Unlimited data for iPad users at USD 3 per day, no contract, and — unusually — available to Verizon and T-Mobile customers as well. Target: tablet-only and occasional-use connectivity. Strategically, a customer-acquisition wedge into rival bases.
AT&T PREPAID. Prepaid consumer brand sold under the AT&T name.
Cricket Wireless. Value flanker brand acquired via Leap Wireless in 2014, operated as a separate retail brand and distribution channel. FY2025 prepaid phone net losses of 255,000 in the fourth quarter indicate continued pressure in this category.
amiGO. AT&T's exclusive kids' device line — the only full lineup of child-oriented connected devices offered by a US carrier. The amiGO Jr. Tab 2 tablet was introduced 5 August 2026. Target: family accounts with children; a retention rather than revenue product.
Direct-to-device satellite. AT&T has a long-term commercial relationship with AST SpaceMobile for satellite-to-smartphone connectivity, and on 14 May 2026 announced with T-Mobile and Verizon a planned joint venture to address coverage dead zones in remote regions. Details of ownership, funding and the technology stack for the joint venture were not disclosed in the announcement reviewed.
Key operating metrics, consumer and business wireless
Sources: 4Q2025 and 2Q2026 earnings releases. AT&T added more than 1.5 million postpaid phone net adds for a fifth consecutive year in 2025.
Advanced Connectivity — home internet
| Metric | 4Q2024 | 4Q2025 | 1Q2026 | 2Q2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AT&T Fiber net adds (000) | 307 | 283 | 292 | 367 |
| AT&T Internet Air net adds (000) | 157 | 221 | 292 | 279 |
| Total internet net adds (000) | — | — | 584 | 646 |
| Consumer broadband net adds (000) | 123 | 210 | — | — |
| Broadband ARPU (USD) | 69.69 | 70.89 | — | — |
| Fibre ARPU (USD) | 71.71 | 72.87 | — | — |
| Fibre locations reached (millions) | — | 32.0 | — | 38.6 |
| Convergence rate (%) | — | 42.0 | — | 42.5 |
AT&T Fiber. Fibre-to-the-premises broadband including multi-gig tiers. AT&T states a maximum single-device wired speed of 4.7 Gbps on its top tier, with limited availability in select areas. Ranked number one in overall customer satisfaction in the American Customer Satisfaction Index for a fourth consecutive year (announced 19 May 2026), and identified by Opensignal in June 2026 as winning roughly twice as many home-internet performance awards as its nearest competitor. In July 2026 Ookla Speedtest analysis identified AT&T as the fastest connectivity provider across home internet and wireless.
Simple Fiber Plans. Launched 3 June 2026. A streamlined, simplified fibre price lineup. The strategic logic mirrors Build-A-Plan: reduce promotional complexity and price opacity, which AT&T management links to churn and to customer-satisfaction scores.
AT&T Internet Air (AIA). Fixed wireless access home broadband delivered over the 5G network. Announced on 29 July 2026 that it had reached two million subscribers, roughly doubling in about a year, with more than half of those customers also taking AT&T wireless. AIA functions as (i) a copper-replacement product in the Legacy wind-down, (ii) a competitive product outside the fibre footprint, and (iii) a convergence hook.
Broadband operating metrics
Sources: 4Q2025, 1Q2026 and 2Q2026 earnings releases. Consumer Wireline had approximately 14.7 million broadband connections at 31 December 2025 versus 14.0 million a year earlier. AT&T added more than one million AT&T Fiber net adds for an eighth consecutive year in 2025 and 875,000 AT&T Internet Air net adds. "Total locations reached with fiber" is defined by AT&T as AT&T owned-and-operated passings plus AT&T Fiber Ventures locations, which comprise the acquired Lumen mass markets network, Gigapower, and other commercial open-access providers.
Advanced Connectivity — business
AT&T Business fibre and advanced connectivity. Dedicated ethernet-based fibre services and fixed wireless for enterprise, mid-market and small business. Second-quarter 2026 revenue of USD 1,946 million, up 10.0 percent year over year. Ranked number one by J.D. Power for small business internet customer satisfaction in July 2026, following a 2025 number-one ranking for small business wireless.
Business transitional and other. Virtual private network, wholesale and other transitional services. Second-quarter 2026 revenue of USD 1,042 million, down 16.6 percent, with the decline attributed to lower VPN and wholesale demand. This is the managed decline within the business portfolio that sits outside the formal Legacy segment.
FirstNet. The nationwide public-safety broadband network built and operated by AT&T under a 25-year agreement with the First Responder Network Authority awarded in March 2017, using dedicated Band 14 spectrum. A structurally advantaged franchise: it is contractual, long-dated and effectively single-sourced.
AT&T Dedicated Internet, managed connectivity, IoT and wholesale. AT&T continues to sell managed network services, IoT connectivity, and wholesale transport. Individual product-level revenue is not separately disclosed. In August 2026 AT&T announced a partnership with Hark on connectivity for future AI devices, and in July 2026 Azio AI executed a master services agreement with AT&T — both consistent with a strategy of selling connectivity into the emerging AI-device category.
Legacy segment products
Copper-based voice (POTS), legacy data (DSL, TDM-based private line, frame relay successors) and associated business transitional services. These are not being marketed: management disclosed in early 2026 that AT&T had stopped sales of all targeted legacy copper-based services in 85 percent of its wire centres. AT&T intends to power down and stop providing service over the large majority of its domestic copper network by the end of 2029, subject to regulatory approvals, and has cautioned that California approvals in particular could delay decommissioning beyond 2029 — a caution partly addressed by the USD 19 billion California commitment announced 20 May 2026.
Latin America
AT&T Mexico and Unefon. Postpaid and prepaid wireless services and device sales in Mexico through owned stores, agents and third-party retail. Fourth-quarter 2025 total wireless net adds of 531,000 (328,000 postpaid, 222,000 prepaid, minus 19,000 reseller).
Digital and support platforms
The AT&T app. Rebuilt and relaunched in the first half of 2026 with AI-powered support, streamlined notifications and unified management of wireless and home internet. A cost-to-serve initiative as much as a customer-experience one.
AT&T Turbo and Turbo Live. Network-priority products for consumers; AT&T offered Turbo Live free at the start of the 2026 football season and introduced season passes (announced early September 2026).
Financial Narrative
Income statement: notes and sources
Sources: AT&T Forms 10-K FY2021–FY2025; 8-K earnings exhibits dated 26 January 2022, 25 January 2023, 24 January 2024, 27 January 2025 and 28 January 2026; Yahoo Finance normalisation of the filed income statements for gross profit. The FY2025 adjusted EPS of USD 2.12 is diluted EPS of USD 3.04 adjusted to remove USD 0.80 of gain on the DIRECTV sale, USD 0.21 of DIRECTV equity income and USD 0.08 of tax benefit, and to add back USD 0.09 restructuring, USD 0.06 actuarial loss and USD 0.02 of other items. FY2024 adjusted EPS is presented excluding DIRECTV (USD 1.95); including DIRECTV it was USD 2.26. FY2021 and FY2022 gross profit and FY2021 adjusted EBITDA are not disclosed on a comparable continuing-operations basis in the sources reviewed.
Margins: notes and sources
Derived from the income statement table above: Revenue CAGR. On a continuing-operations basis, revenue declined at a compound annual rate of 1.6 percent between FY2021 and FY2025. Excluding the FY2021-to-FY2022 divestiture step-down, the FY2022–FY2025 compound annual growth rate was 1.3 percent.
Balance sheet: notes and sources
Sources: AT&T Forms 10-K FY2021–FY2025 as compiled by stock-analysis-on.net from the filings, and Yahoo Finance normalisation.
At 30 June 2026, total debt was USD 144,000 million, cash and equivalents USD 17,600 million, time deposits nil, and net debt USD 126,400 million. The 10-K for FY2025 discloses a debt ratio (total debt to total capital) of 51.4 percent at 31 December 2025, versus 50.7 percent at 31 December 2024 and 53.5 percent at 31 December 2023.
Cash flow: notes and sources
Sources: AT&T Forms 10-K and fourth-quarter earnings releases FY2021–FY2025. FY2025 free cash flow of USD 16.6 billion is cash from operating activities of USD 40.3 billion less DIRECTV operating distributions of USD 1.9 billion, less DIRECTV cash taxes of USD 0.3 billion, less capital expenditures of USD 20.8 billion and less vendor financing of USD 1.2 billion. FY2024 free cash flow excluding DIRECTV of USD 15.3 billion is computed on the same basis.
Ratios: notes and sources
Derived from the tables above. ROE uses net income attributable to common divided by average common stockholders equity. ROA uses total net income divided by average total assets. ROIC uses operating income after a 21 percent notional tax rate divided by (total debt plus total equity less cash). Current ratio for FY2025 is computed as current assets of USD 48,732 million (total assets less noncurrent assets of USD 371,466 million) over current liabilities of USD 53,780 million; for FY2024, USD 31,168 million over USD 46,872 million.
Commentary on trends, inflections and drivers
Revenue. The dominant fact of the five-year series is that it contains two different companies. The FY2021-to-FY2022 decline of 9.9 percent is almost entirely the WarnerMedia separation and associated divestitures, not operating deterioration. What matters is the FY2022–FY2025 trajectory: flat in FY2024 (down 0.08 percent) then accelerating to 2.71 percent growth in FY2025 and 2.9 percent and 2.3 percent in the first two quarters of 2026. The inflection is compositional. Mobility service revenue grew 3.1 percent in FY2025 and consumer fibre revenue grew 17.0 percent, while Business Wireline fell 7.5 percent in the fourth quarter. As the shrinking denominator of legacy revenue becomes small, the consolidated growth rate converges on the growth rate of the good business. AT&T has quantified this: Legacy service revenue is guided to decline more than 20 percent in 2026 and to be immaterial by the end of 2029.
Operating income and margin. FY2022's reported operating loss of USD 4,587 million reflects USD 24.8 billion of non-cash goodwill impairments taken against Business Wireline and other units — an accounting acknowledgement that the copper-era enterprise business was worth far less than carried. A further USD 4.4 billion non-cash goodwill impairment in FY2024 depressed that year's operating income to USD 19,003 million and net income attributable to common to USD 10,700 million. Stripping impairments out, adjusted operating income rose from USD 24.2 billion in FY2024 to USD 25.5 billion in FY2025, a cleaner 5.4 percent increase. Adjusted EBITDA margin has expanded steadily from 35.4 percent to 36.9 percent over three years, driven by transformation savings, lower content licensing fees and the roll-off of fully depreciated legacy assets.
Net income and EPS. FY2025's headline EPS of USD 3.04 is flattered by the USD 5.6 billion gain on the DIRECTV disposal (USD 0.80 per share) and by DIRECTV equity income (USD 0.21). Adjusted EPS of USD 2.12 against USD 1.95 the prior year — up 8.7 percent — is the correct measure of underlying progress. The gap between GAAP and adjusted EPS in FY2025 is the largest in the series and should be treated as a one-off.
Cash flow. Operating cash flow has been remarkably stable in the USD 36–40 billion range since the separation, reaching USD 40.3 billion in FY2025 despite USD 1.15 billion of voluntary pension contributions and payments on apportioned legal settlements. Free cash flow of USD 16.6 billion in FY2025 comfortably covered the USD 8.2 billion dividend (a payout ratio near 49 percent) with room for USD 4.3 billion of buybacks. Capital investment has been held remarkably flat at USD 22.0–24.3 billion for four years even as the fibre build accelerated, which implies real efficiency gains in cost-per-passing. Guidance steps this up to USD 23–24 billion annually for 2026–2028.
Leverage — the central financial issue. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA fell from 2.97x at end-2023 to 2.53x at end-2025 as management prioritised deleveraging. That discipline has now been deliberately reversed. Following the Lumen and EchoStar transactions, AT&T guided in January 2026 to leverage rising to approximately 3.2x, declining to approximately 3.0x by the end of 2026, and returning to the 2.5x target within approximately three years of the EchoStar close (that is, by roughly mid-2029). Total debt rose from USD 136.1 billion at 31 December 2025 to USD 144.0 billion at 30 June 2026, before the July drawdown of USD 14.5 billion under the delayed-draw term loan facility to fund EchoStar. Investors are therefore being asked to fund a re-levering into a spectrum asset that will not generate revenue for some time — AT&T cannot deploy the 600 MHz spectrum until new radios are developed and procured, likely more than a year out.
Cash taxes. A material and underappreciated tailwind. The FY2025 10-K notes that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act did not materially change income tax expense but is expected to produce a material decrease in cash taxes paid. Guidance for 2026 is cash taxes of only USD 1.0–1.5 billion, against total taxes incurred, collected and remitted of USD 16,326 million in 2025. Pension contributions of approximately USD 350 million are expected in 2026 with no significant additional contributions until 2030.
Unlock Company Financials
Unlock this company profile to view its financial data.
View Subscription PlansFinancial Detail
Income Statement and Margin Analysis (%)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (USD Mn) | 134,038 | 120,741 | 122,428 | 122,336 | 125,648 |
Revenue growth (%) | -21.96 | -9.92 | 1.40 | -0.08 | 2.71 |
Gross profit (USD Mn) | — | 69,890 | 72,310 | 73,120 | 74,830 |
Operating income (USD Mn) | 25,897 | -4,587 | 23,461 | 19,003 | 24,156 |
Adjusted operating income (USD Mn) | — | — | — | 24,200 | 25,500 |
Adjusted EBITDA (USD Mn) | — | — | 43,400 | 44,800 | 46,400 |
Interest expense (USD Mn) | 6,716 | 6,108 | 6,704 | 6,800 | 6,800 |
Equity in net income of affiliates (USD Mn) | 603 | 1,791 | 1,626 | 2,000 | 1,900 |
Other income (expense) net (USD Mn) | 9,387 | 5,810 | 1,900 | 2,400 | 7,800 |
Pre-tax income, continuing ops (USD Mn) | 29,171 | -3,094 | 19,850 | 16,700 | 27,010 |
Income tax provision (USD Mn) | — | 3,780 | 4,230 | 4,450 | 3,620 |
Net income (USD Mn) | — | — | — | 12,300 | 23,400 |
Net income attributable to common (USD Mn) | 19,874 | -8,524 | 14,187 | 10,700 | 21,890 |
EPS basic (USD) | 2.77 | -1.20 | 1.97 | 1.49 | 3.05 |
EPS diluted (USD) | 2.76 | -1.20 | 1.97 | 1.49 | 3.04 |
Adjusted EPS (USD) | 3.40 | 2.57 | 2.41 | 1.95 | 2.12 |
Dividends declared per share (USD) | 2.08 | 1.35 | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.11 |
Unlock Company Financials
Unlock this company profile to view its financial data.
View Subscription PlansMargin Analysis (%)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin (%) | — | 57.9 | 59.1 | 59.8 | 59.6 |
Operating margin (%) | 19.3 | -3.8 | 19.2 | 15.5 | 19.2 |
Adjusted EBITDA margin (%) | — | — | 35.4 | 36.6 | 36.9 |
Net margin, attributable to common (%) | 14.8 | -7.1 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 17.4 |
Balance Sheet
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total assets (USD Mn) | 551,622 | 402,853 | 407,060 | 394,795 | 420,198 |
Total liabilities (USD Mn) | — | 296,396 | 287,645 | 274,570 | 291,706 |
Total equity incl. noncontrolling interests (USD Mn) | — | 106,457 | 119,415 | 120,225 | 128,492 |
Common stockholders equity (USD Mn) | 166,332 | 97,500 | 103,297 | 104,372 | 110,533 |
Cash and equivalents (USD Mn) | 21,169 | 3,701 | 6,722 | 3,298 | 18,200 |
Debt maturing within one year (USD Mn) | 24,630 | 7,467 | 9,477 | 5,089 | 9,011 |
Total debt (USD Mn) | 177,300 | 135,900 | 137,300 | 122,000 | 136,100 |
Net debt (USD Mn) | 156,100 | 128,700 | 128,900 | 118,700 | 117,400 |
Goodwill (USD Mn) | 133,223 | 68,967 | 67,895 | 63,432 | 63,425 |
Licences, net (USD Mn) | 113,830 | 123,640 | 126,059 | 126,722 | 128,148 |
Property, plant and equipment, net (USD Mn) | 125,904 | 126,906 | 127,277 | 128,936 | 131,559 |
Working capital (USD Mn) | -25,591 | -23,065 | -14,669 | -15,704 | -5,048 |
Finance lease obligations (USD Mn) | — | 18,659 | 17,568 | 17,391 | 18,943 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operating activities (USD Mn) | 41,957 | 35,812 | 38,314 | 38,771 | 40,300 |
Capital expenditures (USD Mn) | 16,527 | 19,626 | 17,853 | 20,263 | 20,800 |
Cash paid for vendor financing (USD Mn) | 4,600 | 3,100 | 5,700 | 1,800 | 1,200 |
Capital investment (USD Mn) | 21,600 | 24,300 | 23,600 | 22,100 | 22,000 |
Free cash flow (USD Mn) | 26,800 | 14,100 | 16,800 | 15,300 | 16,600 |
Dividends paid (USD Mn) | 15,000 | 9,900 | 8,100 | 8,200 | 8,200 |
Share repurchases (USD Mn) | — | — | — | 200 | 4,300 |
Returns & Leverage Ratios (%) and Financial Ratios (x)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Return on common equity (%) | — | -8.5 | 14.1 | 10.3 | 20.4 |
Return on assets (%) | — | — | — | 3.1 | 5.7 |
Return on invested capital (%) | — | — | — | 6.2 | 7.7 |
Current ratio (x) | — | — | — | 0.67 | 0.91 |
Total debt to common equity (x) | 1.07 | 1.39 | 1.33 | 1.17 | 1.23 |
Net debt to adjusted EBITDA (x) | — | — | 2.97 | 2.65 | 2.53 |
Interest coverage, operating income basis (x) | 3.86 | -0.75 | 3.50 | 2.79 | 3.55 |
Asset turnover (x) | — | — | — | 0.31 | 0.31 |
Region Overview
| Region | FY2025 |
|---|---|
United States (USD Mn) | 120,220 |
Mexico (USD Mn) | 4,430 |
Asia Pacific (USD Mn) | 395 |
Europe (USD Mn) | 382 |
International, other (USD Mn) | 114 |
Latin America and Caribbean, excluding Brazil (USD Mn) | 110 |
Valuation Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Share price, 4 September 2026 (USD) | 25.96 |
Intraday range, 4 September 2026 (USD) | 25.90 to 26.22 |
52-week range (USD) | 19.89 to 29.79 |
Market capitalisation, 1 September 2026 (USD Bn) | 178.95 |
Market capitalisation, 4 September 2026 (USD Bn) | 177.85 |
One-year change in market capitalisation (%) | -14.56 |
Year-to-date total return 2026 (%) | 4.7 |
Trailing P/E (x) | 8.66 |
Dividend yield (%) | 4.24 |
Average daily volume (shares M) | 29.75 |
Valuation Multiples
| Multiple | AT&T | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Trailing P/E (x) | 8.66 | Flattered by the FY2025 DIRECTV gain; on adjusted EPS of USD 2.12 the multiple is approximately 12.2x, and on 2026 guidance of USD 2.25–2.35 approximately 11.0–11.5x |
EV / EBITDA (x) | 5.92 | FY2025 basis |
EV / Sales (x) | Approximately 2.4 | Derived: enterprise value of approximately USD 305 billion (market capitalisation USD 178 billion plus net debt USD 126.4 billion at 30 June 2026) on FY2025 revenue of USD 125.6 billion |
Price / Book (x) | Approximately 1.6 | Derived: market capitalisation USD 178 billion over common stockholders equity of USD 110.5 billion at 31 December 2025 |
Dividend yield (%) | 4.24 | At USD 25.96 and USD 1.11 annualised |
Per-Share Data
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividends declared per share (USD) | 2.08 | 1.35 | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.11 |
Credit Ratings
| Agency | Rating | Outlook |
|---|---|---|
Moody's Ratings | Baa2 (senior unsecured) | Stable |
S&P Global Ratings | BBB | Stable |
Fitch Ratings | BBB+ | Stable |
Analyst Conclusions
Management guidance
For 2026 AT&T guides to low-single-digit consolidated service revenue growth (Advanced Connectivity up 5 percent-plus, Legacy down more than 20 percent), adjusted EBITDA growth of 3 to 4 percent, adjusted EPS of USD 2.25 to USD 2.35, capital investment of USD 23 to USD 24 billion, and free cash flow of USD 18 billion-plus. Through 2028, adjusted EBITDA growth improves to 5 percent or better, adjusted EPS compounds at a double-digit rate, free cash flow reaches USD 19 billion-plus in 2027 and USD 21 billion-plus in 2028, and USD 45 billion-plus is returned to shareholders including approximately USD 24 billion of buybacks. Leverage rises to approximately 3.2x, falls to approximately 3.0x by end-2026, and returns to the 2.5x range roughly three years after the EchoStar close. All of this was reiterated in full at the second quarter, after two consecutive beats.
The first half of 2026 tracks ahead of that guidance. Adjusted EPS of USD 0.57 and USD 0.65 in the first two quarters annualises above the top of the USD 2.25–2.35 range; free cash flow of USD 4.7 billion in the second quarter alone, with the seasonally strongest quarters ahead, is consistent with the USD 18 billion-plus target; and adjusted EBITDA growth of 5.2 percent in the second quarter exceeds the 3 to 4 percent full-year guide.
Consensus expectations
Independent forecasts cluster around 2.1 to 2.5 percent annual revenue growth over the next three years, against a US telecom industry forecast in the 4.7 to 5.4 percent range — meaning consensus expects AT&T to grow more slowly than its industry. That gap is the Legacy drag, and it should close as Legacy revenue approaches immateriality by 2029. Price targets span approximately USD 20.00 to USD 31.50.
Bull case
-
The Legacy drag is arithmetically self-liquidating, and the market is discounting it as permanent. Legacy revenue fell 25.9 percent year over year in the second quarter of 2026 to USD 1,632 million. On AT&T's own guidance it becomes immaterial by end-2029. When it does, consolidated growth converges on Advanced Connectivity growth of 5 percent-plus rather than the 2.3 percent currently reported — and consolidated EBITDA growth converges on Advanced Connectivity's 8.0 percent. A telecom growing revenue at 5 percent and EBITDA at 8 percent does not trade at 5.9x EV/EBITDA.
-
Fibre penetration is the highest-return capital in the business and it has barely started. AT&T reaches 38.6 million locations and has 14.7 million consumer broadband connections. Incremental subscribers on already-built plant carry near-100 percent incremental margin, fibre ARPU is USD 72.87 and rising, and AT&T holds the number-one ACSI satisfaction ranking for the fourth consecutive year. The build is funded within a capital investment envelope that has been flat for four years.
-
The capital return is large, growing and executed at a distressed multiple. Approximately USD 10 billion of 2026 buybacks against a USD 178 billion market capitalisation retires roughly 5.6 percent of the share count at approximately 11x forward adjusted earnings, with USD 24 billion planned through 2028. Combined with the USD 1.11 dividend, the total shareholder yield approaches 10 percent — funded by free cash flow, not debt, and supported by a cash tax bill guided at only USD 1.0–1.5 billion in 2026.
Bear case
-
The balance sheet is being stretched for an asset that generates nothing for years. AT&T paid approximately USD 23 billion for spectrum, funded USD 14.5 billion of it with floating-rate term loans and a further USD 2.4 billion into an FCC-mandated creditor trust, and cannot deploy the 600 MHz component for more than a year because the radios do not yet exist in its network portfolio. Net debt rose to USD 126.4 billion at 30 June 2026 before that drawdown. Interest coverage was 3.55x on FY2025 reported operating income. Management concedes both acquisitions are dilutive to adjusted EPS until 2028. If leverage does not fall on schedule, the ratings — Baa2 / BBB / BBB+, all stable — have limited headroom, and Moody's affirmation was explicitly conditioned on reaching 3.5x or below within two years.
-
Pricing power is absent and churn is deteriorating. Postpaid phone ARPU declined 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 while postpaid phone churn worsened 13 basis points and prepaid churn worsened 16 basis points. All revenue growth is volume and mix. Into that, Verizon has guided to two-to-three times its 2025 postpaid phone net adds under a new chief executive with an explicit share-recapture mandate, and T-Mobile continues to grow service revenue at 8 percent. AT&T's response — Build-A-Plan from USD 15 per month and simplified fibre pricing — improves competitiveness by lowering realised price. That is a defensible strategy and a margin headwind at the same time.
-
The copper shutdown, which underwrites the entire margin story, is not in AT&T's control. AT&T's own filings warn that California regulatory approval could push decommissioning beyond 2029, and the company has committed USD 19 billion to that state partly to secure it. Meanwhile the cost side is already inverting: in the second quarter of 2026 Legacy revenue fell 25.9 percent while direct costs fell only 10.8 percent, collapsing the segment margin by 1,160 basis points, and management concedes Legacy EBITDA turns negative after 2027. If decommissioning slips even two years, AT&T carries a structurally loss-making network into the 2030s while having already spent the capital to replace it.
Catalysts and monitorables — next twelve months
| Date / period | Item | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| 21 October 2026 | Third-quarter 2026 results | First quarter fully reflecting the EchoStar close and the associated interest cost |
| September 2026 | Goldman Sachs, Citi and Bank of America conferences | Management updates on the Forged Fiber partner search and the buyback pace |
| Q4 2026 | Forged Fiber equity partner announcement | Terms will reveal the private-market valuation of AT&T's fibre plant — the single most important read-through for the sum-of-the-parts case |
| Ongoing | Final approval order in MDL 3114 | 221 days elapsed without a ruling as of late August 2026; an adverse or reopened outcome would be a negative surprise |
| Q4 2026 / Q1 2027 | Year-end fibre location count | Management has committed to more than 40 million by year-end 2026 |
| January 2027 | Fourth-quarter 2026 results and year-end leverage | Guidance calls for approximately 3.0x; a miss would pressure the ratings narrative |
| 1 January 2027 | Jennifer Biry becomes CFO | Any change in capital allocation posture, particularly on buyback pace versus deleveraging |
| Through 2027 | California and other state Section 214 decisions | Determines whether the 2029 copper shutdown holds |
| Through 2027 | 600 MHz radio development and deployment | The gating item on monetising a USD 23 billion asset |
| Quarterly | Postpaid phone churn and net adds versus Verizon | The clearest read on whether Verizon's turnaround is coming out of AT&T's base |
| Quarterly | Convergence rate | Management's chosen headline metric; 42.5 percent at 30 June 2026 |
Analyst verdict
AT&T in September 2026 is a company that has finished one transformation and started another, and the market is pricing the second one at close to zero.
The first transformation — dismantling the media conglomerate — is complete and was successful on its own terms. WarnerMedia, Vrio, Xandr, the cybersecurity business and DIRECTV are gone. What remains generates USD 40.3 billion of annual operating cash flow, converts roughly 41 percent of that to free cash flow, and covers its dividend approximately twice over while retiring nearly 6 percent of its shares a year.
The second transformation is the one that matters now: converting a copper-era incumbent into a converged fibre-and-5G operator, and doing it fast enough that the growth arrives before the debt taken on to fund it becomes a problem. The evidence through two quarters is encouraging. Advanced Connectivity grew service revenue 5.1 percent and EBITDA 8.0 percent in the second quarter; internet net adds hit a record 646,000; postpaid phone net adds of 432,000 beat expectations by nearly 100,000; and management raised the buyback rather than trimming it.
The bear case is not about execution — it is about sequencing. AT&T has spent approximately USD 29 billion on Lumen and EchoStar, pushed leverage to approximately 3.2x, and accepted EPS dilution until 2028, in exchange for assets whose returns depend on regulatory permission it does not yet have and radio hardware that does not yet exist. That is a genuine risk, and the 60 percent dispersion in sell-side price targets reflects honest disagreement rather than analytical laziness.
At approximately 11x forward adjusted earnings, 5.9x EV/EBITDA and a total shareholder yield near 10 percent, the valuation compensates for that risk. The asymmetry favours patience: the downside is a stalled deleveraging with the dividend still intact, and the upside is a re-rating when Legacy stops mattering. Monitor churn and the Forged Fiber terms above all else.
End of dossier. Prepared 5 September 2026 from publicly available sources. All figures carry the fiscal year and source document indicated. Where sources conflict — notably on FY2025 operating income (USD 24.2 billion per AT&T's release versus USD 25.0 billion per Yahoo Finance's normalisation), on FY2025 EPS (USD 3.04 diluted per AT&T versus USD 3.05 basic as reported by aggregators), and on the Sustainalytics ESG risk score (22.1 versus 23.9) — both figures are noted above and the discrepancy flagged rather than resolved.
Unlock Company Financials
Unlock this company profile to view its financial data.
View Subscription PlansExecutive Leadership
Executive Leadership Team
| Name | Title | Tenure in role | Prior roles | Age | FY2025 total compensation (USD Mn) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John T. Stankey | Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President | CEO since 1 July 2020; Director since 1 June 2020; Chairman since 14 February 2025 | President and COO of AT&T; CEO of WarnerMedia; CEO of AT&T Entertainment Group; Chief Strategy Officer; career AT&T executive | 62 (as reported 2025) | 29.91 |
Pascal Desroches | Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer | CFO since 1 April 2021; retiring effective 31 December 2026 | SEVP–Finance, AT&T; CFO of WarnerMedia (2018–2020); EVP and CFO of Turner Broadcasting (2015–2018); SVP and Controller, Time Warner Inc. | 62 (age 56 at November 2020 appointment) | 13.68 |
Jennifer Biry | Deputy Chief Financial Officer; becomes Senior Executive Vice President and CFO on 1 January 2027 | Deputy CFO effective 6 July 2026 | CFO and COO of McAfee (since 2022); EVP and CFO of WarnerMedia (2020–2022); senior AT&T finance, sales and strategy roles from 1999 | 52 | Not applicable (appointed mid-2026) |
Jeffery McElfresh | Chief Operating Officer | COO since 2021 | CEO of AT&T Communications; President of AT&T Mexico; career AT&T executive | — | 15.94 |
David R. McAtee II | Senior Executive Vice President and General Counsel | General Counsel since 2015 | Partner, Haynes and Boone LLP | — | 12.37 |
Lori Lee | Global Marketing Officer and Senior Executive Vice President — International | With AT&T since approximately 2013 in senior marketing and international roles | CEO of AT&T Latin America; SEVP–Human Resources | — | 8.88 |
Ed Gillespie | Senior Executive Vice President — External and Legislative Affairs | — | Counselor to President George W. Bush; Chairman, Republican National Committee | — | — |
Kellyn Kenny | Chief Marketing and Growth Officer | — | — | — | — |
Larry Solomon | Chief Communications Officer | With AT&T approximately 18 years | — | — | — |
Rick Moore | Senior Vice President — Corporate Development | With AT&T approximately 19 years | — | — | — |
Brett Feldman | Senior Vice President — Finance and Investor Relations | — | Sell-side telecommunications analyst | — | — |
“—” = not publicly disclosed.
Competitive Landscape
Peer Comparison FY2025
| Metric | AT&T FY2025 | Verizon FY2025 | T-Mobile US FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
Total revenue (USD Bn) | 125.6 | 138.2 | — |
Revenue growth (%) | 2.7 | 2.5 | — |
Total service revenue (USD Bn) | — | 83.7 | 71.3 |
Service revenue growth (%) | — | 2.0 | 8.0 |
Net income (USD Bn) | 23.4 | 17.6 | 11.0 |
Adjusted EBITDA (USD Bn) | 46.4 | 50.0 | — |
Cash from operations (USD Bn) | 40.3 | 37.1 | — |
Capital expenditures (USD Bn) | 20.8 | 17.0 | — |
Free cash flow (USD Bn) | 16.6 | 20.1 | — |
4Q postpaid phone net adds (000) | 421 | 616 | — |
Net leverage (x) | 2.53 | 2.2 | — |
Recent Developments
--



