Inversora Juramento S.A.

Basis of presentation.

• All figures come from FIX SCR's rating report of 1 Oct 2025, Annex I. Amounts are in ARS millions, constant pesos of June 2025 (IAS 29 restated), consolidated under IFRS, fiscal years ending 30 September.

• The fifth column is the LTM to 30 Jun 2025, used as a proxy for FY2025.

Audited FY2025 (Sep-2025) figures were not verifiable: Financialfilings.com shows FY2025 values labeled "ARS M" (revenue 534.50, net income −159.77, total assets 550.28, equity 481.89, cash from operations −239.22). Those values are inconsistent in scale with FIX's figures and almost certainly misreport the units, so they are not used here.

• USD figures are FIX conversions.

Income statement

Items not publicly disclosed in the sources retrieved:

• Gross profit, pre-tax income, EPS (basic and diluted) and dividends per share for the five-year series.

• IJSA has never paid a dividend (TradingView; FIX shows zero dividends in every period).

• A third-party aggregator (iocharts, 22 Jan 2026) reports trailing figures on a different, apparently nominal basis that cannot be reconciled with FIX: revenue ARS 156.52 billion, gross profit ARS 23.78 billion (15.19% margin), operating income ARS 5.78 billion (3.69%), net income minus ARS 7.93 billion (−5.07%).

USD reference points (FIX):

FIX's normalized projection is EBITDA of about USD 20 million (about 10% margin).

Revenue CAGR, FY2021–FY2024 (constant ARS): about 5.7% a year. The LTM to June 2025 shows a 19.9% increase over the prior comparable period. FIX attributes it to higher sales volumes and the recovery in cattle prices.

Commentary.

Two EBITDA series: EBITDA was positive but thin in FY2021–FY2023 (3–10% margins) and turned negative in FY2024 and the LTM to June 2025. FIX blames higher production costs: a sharp real rise in cattle purchase and feed costs that the domestic beef market could not pass through, because per-capita consumption fell to about 45 kg in 2024. Earlier FIX reports (29 Apr 2024 and 3 Oct 2024) published much higher EBITDA margins: 29.3% and 22.7% on a constant-currency LTM basis, and 22.7% and 11.1% in the October 2024 report. That gap almost certainly comes from a different treatment of biological-asset fair-value changes. The two EBITDA series conflict, and readers should not compare them directly.

EBIT above EBITDA: Reported operating EBIT exceeded EBITDA in FY2021–FY2023. That is arithmetically impossible on a pure depreciation basis and signals that EBIT includes non-cash biological-asset revaluation gains (cattle and crops held at fair value) that FIX strips out of EBITDA. Those gains reversed in FY2024 and the LTM period.

Interest burden: Gross interest rose from ARS 5.7 billion in FY2022 to ARS 41.1 billion in FY2024 (constant pesos), reflecting very high peso rates and growing borrowing. Interest is now the main swing factor in net income.

Balance sheet

Items not publicly disclosed in the sources retrieved:

• Goodwill and intangibles (expected to be immaterial; the asset base is land, cattle, crops and the plant).

• Working capital in absolute terms.

June 2025 snapshot in USD (FIX):

• Financial debt USD 96–97 million (both figures appear in the same report; the discrepancy is minor).

• Cash and short-term investments USD 49 million.

• Short-term debt USD 76 million.

• Cash covered 65% of short-term debt.

Debt composition (June 2025):

Earlier composition snapshots: in December 2023, debt was ARS 18,171 million (nominal), of which ONs were 45% and bank loans and cauciones 55%. In June 2024, ONs were 74%.

Commentary on equity and debt.

• Equity fell by about ARS 87 billion (constant) between FY2023 and FY2024, more than FY2024's net loss of ARS 17.5 billion. The difference points to other comprehensive income or restatement effects, most likely land revaluation or inflation-adjustment items. The reconciliation is not publicly disclosed.

• Equity is expected to rise in FY2025 because of the USD 56 million in irrevocable capital contributions that funded the September 2025 land and cattle acquisition.

• Debt more than doubled between FY2023 and the LTM to June 2025 (ARS 44.7 billion to ARS 115.8 billion constant) as the company funded losses, working capital and Bermejo capex.

• The refinancing programme (ON V in October 2024, ON VI in October 2025, ON VII in June 2026) is explicitly aimed at lengthening tenor and dollarizing liabilities to match future export flows.

Cash flow

Buybacks: none disclosed.

LTM to June 2025 in USD (FIX): funds from operations about +13.8 million; working-capital outflow about 11.5 million; capex about 7.4 million, mainly to finish the Frigorífico Bermejo works; free cash flow about minus 5.2 million.

Commentary: free cash flow was negative in four of five periods. FY2022 was positive only because working capital released ARS 24 billion. FIX notes that cattle has a roughly two-year business cycle with heavy working-capital needs, historically funded by debt and, more importantly, by equity injections. FIX expects free cash flow to turn positive in 2026 once the investment programme ends.

Ratios

Ratios not publicly disclosed or not computable:

• ROIC and the cash conversion cycle: no invested-capital or working-capital detail available.

• Current ratio: current assets and liabilities not disclosed.

• FIX's liquidity metric, EBITDA plus cash over short-term debt, was about 2.7x on the December 2023 LTM, about 0.9x in June 2024, and roughly 0.6x in June 2025 (cash only, 65%).

Commentary.

Leverage ratios are distorted by negative EBITDA: On a balance-sheet basis the company is still conservatively financed: debt is 29% of capital, with equity and unencumbered land worth about USD 280 million.

Coverage is the binding weakness: EBITDA has not covered interest since FY2022.

Downgrade trigger: debt sustained above 3.0x EBITDA, if not tied to the cattle cycle.

Upgrade trigger: debt sustained below 1.0x, with more long-term debt.

Guidance and consensus

Management guidance: none published.

Consensus: none.

Base case reference (FIX): EBITDA of about USD 20M (about 10% margin) once the export mix rises; positive free cash flow in 2026.

Bull case

1. Export margin re-rating. Bermejo now has 100% deboning, kosher capability and an expanded cold chain, plus Gorina's export network. Each percentage point of mix shift from domestic carcass sales to export boxed beef should lift margins well above the domestic −2% LTM EBITDA margin, toward FIX's roughly 10% normalized level.

2. Asset backing with deep-pocketed sponsorship. About USD 280M of unencumbered land and more than 114,000 ha, combined with a family that injected USD 56M in 2025, put a hard floor under credit risk. The equity trades at roughly 0.7x constant-peso book, based on indicative and mismatched dates.

3. Volume and efficiency leverage. Heavier slaughter weights (about +20% kilos per head), shorter feedlot cycles, a larger herd (about 85,000 head) and plant capacity of 144,000 head a year allow output growth without proportional capex.

Bear case

1. Structural cash burn. Free cash flow was negative in four of five periods and EBITDA negative for two consecutive years. The model has depended on shareholder injections and related-bank loans, which is not sustainable without an export breakthrough.

2. Partnership dilution and value leakage. If Gorina takes a large stake in Bermejo (press speculation of at least 49%) and controls export marketing, IJSA's share of the value-add may be smaller than the pivot implies. The equity terms remain undisclosed.

3. Minority-shareholder irrelevance. With 97.7% of votes held by the family, a roughly 3% float, no dividends ever and no buybacks, minority shareholders have little path to value realization beyond a potential squeeze-out. The share fell about 50% over the latest year.

Catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)

Analyst verdict

Inversora Juramento is a strategically coherent business with a poor recent financial record. Its logic is sound and rare in Argentina:

• It controls genetics, land, feed, feedlot, packing plant and retail in a region where freight protects it from Pampas competitors.

• It owns about 60% of Salta's slaughter.

• It sits on land appraised at about USD 280 million, against financial debt of about USD 97 million (June 2025).

That combination explains why FIX holds an A-(arg) rating despite two consecutive years of negative EBITDA, and why local investors have absorbed USD 80 million of dollar notes in twenty months at falling coupons.

The financials tell a less flattering story. In constant pesos:

• EBITDA swung from ARS 18.9 billion (FY2023) to minus ARS 4.7 billion (LTM June 2025).

• Interest consumed more than the entire operating result.

• Free cash flow has been negative in four of five periods.

The business has been sustained by the Brito family's equity and by Banco Macro-linked credit. That is a strength for creditors and a governance consideration for everyone else.

The 2025–2026 pivot is the decisive variable. The Bermejo plant can now debone and vacuum-pack all its output and handle kosher production. A seasoned exporter, Gorina, has joined as operating partner, and the herd has grown to about 85,000 head. If exports move from about 4% of revenue toward a meaningful share, FIX's roughly USD 20 million normalized EBITDA is credible, and the ARS net-debt picture becomes manageable.

For bondholders, the credit is well supported. Strong asset coverage and shareholder backing, a change-of-control put and a staggered USD maturity ladder (USD 20 million in October 2026, USD 30 million in October 2027, USD 30 million in June 2028) make the ONs the most attractive way to gain exposure.

For equity investors, the case is weaker. The float is about 3%, IJSA has never paid a dividend, recent price momentum is deeply negative, and the economic terms of the Gorina deal are undisclosed. The share is a tactical, illiquid asset-value play rather than a compounding investment until FY2026 accounts show positive EBITDA and free cash flow.

Verdict: credit is constructive; equity is neutral pending evidence that the export pivot is working.