Jervois Mining Limited

Income statement

Sources: AR 2023 (FY2023 and FY2022 comparatives); Barchart financial summary (FY2021 revenue); Q4 2022 results presentation (FY2022 NPAT −US$55.2M). No dividends were paid or declared in FY2022 or FY2023 (AR 2023, Directors' Report, s.5).

Partial FY2024 disclosures:

• Q1 2024 revenue US$39.9M; Q1 2024 adjusted EBITDA US$0.7M.

• 1H 2024 Jervois Finland revenue US$76.8M, adjusted EBITDA US$0.9M, average cobalt price US$12.22/lb.

• Jervois Mining USA (the ICO subsidiary) lost US$36.4M in the nine months to 30 Sep 2024, including US$26.2M of net finance costs (JMUSA interim statements).

Revenue CAGR. FY2021–FY2023 is not meaningful because FY2021 includes only about four months of Jervois Finland. The FY2022 to FY2023 change was −44.8%.

Commentary.

• FY2022 was the first full year of Jervois Finland ownership. Revenue was strong in 1H 2022 (US$196.3M, cobalt around US$36–38/lb) but deteriorated through 2H as cobalt prices fell (Q4 2022 revenue US$73.0M).

• FY2023 combined three problems: about 45% lower revenue as cobalt traded near US$13–15/lb, a US$30.0M inventory NRV write-down, and a US$173.9M ICO impairment after the construction suspension. The net loss was US$252.5M.

• The inflection lies in feed economics. Jervois Finland earns a spread over hydroxide payables. When prices fall quickly, inventory bought at higher payables is sold at lower prices, compressing EBITDA. That is what happened in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 (adjusted EBITDA −US$7.1M and −US$10.4M).

Balance sheet

Notes:

• The FY2024 funded debt of US$195.5M is the pre-petition figure at January 2025. The FY2025 figure of ~US$31.6M is post-emergence (Sidley). The company's 13 May 2025 release cites ~US$30M drawn on a US$150M Jervois Finland working capital facility as the only remaining debt.

• The US$100M bond, originally due July 2026, was extinguished in the restructuring. Millstreet held about 98% of funded debt (elevenflo) and had lent US$100M for ICO plus US$25M to the company (Reuters via AJOT).

• At 31 March 2023 the group held US$50M cash and US$66M of physical cobalt (Q1 2023 call).

Commentary. Liquidity fell from US$152.6M (after the US$150M equity raise in November 2022) to US$45.4M by end-2023. The drivers were ICO capex (US$88.0M of investing outflows in FY2023) and US$70.9M of borrowing repayments, mostly the Mercuria working-capital facility as inventory was released. With a bond maturing in 2026, covenant waivers in 2024, and cobalt near cyclical lows, the capital structure was unsustainable. The 2025 recapitalisation cut funded debt by about 84% and injected US$145M of new equity.

Cash flow: notes and sources

Source: AR 2023. The FY2025 figure of US$145M is the new equity under the Chapter 11 plan.

Ratios

Inventory days are from AR 2023; the management target range was 90–110 days, later lowered to below 90. Directionally, group EBITDA was negative in FY2023, so net debt/EBITDA and interest coverage were not meaningful.

Management guidance

• SMP: construction through 2026; ramp-up 2027; production expected in late 2027.

• U.S. Cobalt Refinery: advance DOE award negotiations toward a funding agreement.

• ICO: remain in compliant care and maintenance; restart depends on price and financing.

• No financial guidance is published.

Consensus

None. The company is private and there is no sell-side coverage.

Bull case

1. Cash core plus optionality. Jervois Finland can generate meaningful cash. It produced US$46.1M of operating cash before interest even in FY2023's trough, and cobalt prices have recovered sharply since 2025. Little debt now sits ahead of equity.

2. Policy-funded growth. DoD (US$15M), DOE (US$100M selection) and EU CRMA status lower the cost of capital for the U.S. refinery and SMP. Few Western peers have this combination.

3. Strategic scarcity. The U.S. imports 79% of its cobalt (USGS 2026). The only permitted primary U.S. mine and a Class 1 Latin American refinery are hard to replicate, which supports strategic-buyer or partnership value.

Bear case

1. Cyclical relapse. The 2022–2024 collapse showed how quickly price and payable swings erase margins. Jervois Finland's adjusted EBITDA fell from +US$19.2M to −US$6.9M in a year.

2. Execution overload. A small team is running a brownfield restart, a greenfield refinery and a dormant mine at once. SMP feed (MHP) contracting and capex discipline are unproven post-restructuring.

3. Structural demand risk. LFP adoption and Chinese refining scale may limit any durable Western premium. ICO's arsenic-bearing concentrate remains hard to sell.

Catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)

• SMP construction milestones; feed (MHP) supply agreements; first-cathode timing.

• Execution of the DOE funding agreement; refinery site and FID decisions.

• Cobalt price trajectory and DRC export-quota policy.

• Any ICO restart study or partnership.

• Further leadership appointments and any new disclosure on group financials or ownership.

• Possible future capital-markets activity (re-IPO, strategic sale) by the Millstreet-controlled group. Purely speculative and unannounced.

Analyst verdict

Jervois is a case of the right strategy under the wrong capital structure at the wrong point in the cycle. Between 2017 and 2022 management assembled a portfolio that Western policymakers now prize: a long-life toll-refining position at Kokkola, the only permitted primary cobalt mine in the U.S., and Latin America's only Class 1 nickel-cobalt refinery. The financing, however, came from public equity, a US$100M bond and working-capital lines, and depended on cobalt prices that collapsed by about 72% from their April 2022 peak. The FY2023 result — a US$252.5M loss, US$173.9M impairment and cash down to US$45.4M — made restructuring all but inevitable. Legacy shareholders were wiped out in the 2025 Millstreet take-private.

The successor entity is more credible. Funded debt of about US$31.6M against US$145M of new equity gives room to execute. The leadership team is now operator-led, with a CEO from complex metallurgical start-ups and a CFO from Dow and specialty chemicals. Cobalt has recovered strongly as the DRC tightened exports. External validation is substantial: the SMP restart FID, EU CRMA Strategic Project status and a US$100M DOE selection.

The open questions are execution and transparency. SMP must secure economic MHP feed and deliver on budget by late 2027. The DOE award is not yet a binding agreement. ICO's restart economics remain unproven and exposed to arsenic-related marketing constraints. Investors and counterparties also lack audited post-2023 financials, so any view on Jervois Finland's current earnings power is inference.

Verdict: Jervois is now a policy-supported, privately held Western cobalt-nickel platform with a credible cash core and two-to-three-year growth catalysts. It suits counterparties and potential acquirers focused on supply-chain security. The investable upside is concentrated in SMP delivery and U.S. refinery funding, and cobalt price cyclicality remains the dominant risk.

Primary sources consulted:

• Jervois Global Annual Reports 2022 and 2023 (ASX)

• Quarterly reports and results presentations Q1 2022 – Q1 2024; Half-Year Report 1H 2024

• Jervois Mining USA Q3 2024 statements (Euronext Oslo)

• Company releases: 2 Jan 2025, 13 May 2025, 1 Jul 2025, 4 Aug 2025, 25 Nov 2025, 4 May 2026, 1 Jun 2026, 24 Aug 2026 (jervoisglobal.com)

• KPMG administrators' and liquidators' reports (Mar–Jul 2025)

• Sidley Austin, Mills Oakley and Squire Patton Boggs transaction notes (May 2025)

• Reuters (via AJOT and Mining.com); Northern Miner; Project Blue; Kitco; NS Energy; Barchart; TipRanks (noted as conflicting)