Jinchuan Group International Resources Co. Ltd

Income statement

Sources and notes:

FY2021–FY2023: FY2022 and FY2023 annual results announcements (audited, Deloitte).

FY2024–FY2025: Quartr and FilingReader summaries of the audited annual reports (Crowe).

Dividends: FY2025 comprises a final of HK0.2¢ and a special of HK0.2¢ in lieu of the FY2024 final, which was never declared because of the delay. Both were paid around 31 Jul 2026.

Operating income: The company does not report an operating-income line. The EBIT proxy is shown where PBT is available.

EBITDA definition: The company's EBITDA strips impairments and impairment reversals and is labelled "Adjusted EBITDA" from FY2024 onward.

Margins and growth

Derived. FY2021 YoY growth is blank because FY2020 revenue of US$531.5m (FY2020 announcement) is restated for discontinued operations; on that base FY2021 growth was 56.5%. The revenue CAGR for FY2021–FY2025 is −12.8%. That decline is misleading: it reflects the wind-down of low-margin trading and lower cobalt volumes, while EBITDA margin rose from 12.7% to 42.0% over FY2022–FY2025.

Interim comparison (most recent)

Sources: 1H2025 interim (HKEX, published 1 Apr 2026) and 1H2026 interim (HKEX, 14 Aug 2026); Quartr for the 1H2024 EBITDA and EPS comparatives.

Balance sheet

Sources: FY2022 and FY2023 announcements; FY2025 year-end figures from the comparatives in the 1H2026 interim. Net debt follows the company's definition: borrowings plus related-company loans and overdrafts, less cash and bank deposits. No goodwill is recognised. Intangible exposure sits in mineral rights and E&E assets.

30 June 2026 position (1H2026 interim):

• Total assets: US$2,903.0m.

• Cash and deposits: US$257.4m.

• External borrowings: US$480.7m, of which US$196.4m is due within one year, US$261.6m in 2–5 years and US$22.7m after five years.

• Related-party loans: US$309.7m (US$305.3m from the intermediate holding company, due in 2–5 years).

• Net debt: about US$533m; gearing 41.3%.

• Net current liabilities: US$13.6m.

• Total equity: US$1,289.7m.

Cash flow and capital allocation

Notes:

1H2025: Net cash used in operations was −US$26.2m and net financing inflow was US$97.4m (Quartr).

1H2026: PP&E capex was US$20.8m (1H2025: US$56.7m). Capital commitments fell to US$11.3m by 30 Jun 2026, signalling the end of Musonoi's build phase.

Equity raised: The March 2025 placing raised net HK$388m (≈US$49.7m).

Dividends after year-end: The FY2025 final and special dividend of about HK$52.53m (≈US$6.7m) was paid around 31 Jul 2026.

Ratios

Notes:

ROIC and cash conversion cycle: Not computed because invested-capital and full working-capital data were incomplete.

1H2026 data points: Current ratio 0.98x. Annualised net debt / EBITDA about 1.27x. Interest coverage 8.2x. C1 cash cost US$5,494/t.

Commentary on trends, inflections and drivers

FY2021 peak. FY2021 was a cyclical high. The average realised copper price was US$9,018/t, cobalt US$40,738/t, and C1 cost only US$2,611/t thanks to a US$106.6m cobalt by-product credit. A US$96m impairment reversal at Ruashi lifted reported profit further. Gross margin was 30%.

FY2022 collapse. Gross profit fell 73% to US$68.5m despite higher revenue, for four reasons:

• Realised copper fell 16% to US$7,537/t.

• Longer quotation periods during DRC logistics disruption triggered a −US$111.1m provisional-pricing hit.

• Ore purchases jumped from US$11.5m to US$92.2m to keep Ruashi's cobalt grade up.

• Royalties rose to US$66.9m.

Reported profit survived only because of a US$45.0m Kinsenda impairment reversal.

FY2023 trough. The cobalt price halved (MB average US$15.10/lb) and the payability coefficient collapsed to 51–63%. Cobalt revenue fell 76%, and the group deliberately stockpiled cobalt. A US$29m DRC VAT impairment and US$9.6m of FX losses from Congolese franc depreciation pushed the group to a US$11.6m attributable loss. Meanwhile Musonoi absorbed US$211m of capex, financed mainly by bank and parent loans: gross debt rose by US$147m and gearing went from 18.9% to 32.4%.

FY2024 stagnation. Copper production fell 5% to 58,663t on Ruashi power problems, and cobalt output fell 61% to 855t. Revenue declined 12% as trading wound down and cobalt sales fell. The attributable loss narrowed to US$2.5m, and Adjusted EBITDA improved to US$132.4m on better LME prices (average US$9,145/t). There is a discrepancy worth noting: the March 2025 profit alert guided to an attributable profit of up to US$5m, but the audited outcome was a loss of US$2.5m. The audit was completed under Crowe after the forensic process. The reconciliation of that gap was not located in the sources reviewed.

FY2025 inflection. Revenue fell to US$481.9m because no trading revenue was booked, and cobalt sales were blocked by the DRC export ban and quota. Even so:

• Gross profit nearly doubled to US$110.8m.

• Adjusted EBITDA rose 53% to US$202.6m.

• C1 cost fell 5% to US$4,607/t.

• Attributable profit was US$32.7m.

Group copper output reached 61,867t (+5%) with only about two months of Musonoi contribution. The balance sheet, however, was at its most stretched: net debt US$622m, gearing 50%, net current liabilities US$68.4m. The going-concern assessment explicitly relies on continued support from the intermediate holding company.

1H2026 step-change. Revenue was US$460.2m and Adjusted EBITDA US$209.9m; half-year EBITDA exceeded the whole of FY2025. Drivers were 17kt of Musonoi cathode and a realised copper price up 75% YoY to US$12,226/t. Several items took a large share of the uplift:

• Interest on Musonoi project loans (no longer capitalised), lifting finance costs to US$25.6m from US$7.7m.

• Depreciation, up 52%.

• The DRC super-profits tax, which lifted the effective tax rate to about 44%.

• Higher C1 cost of US$5,494/t, from diesel, acid and sulphur inflation and Musonoi's underground cost base.

Two items in 1H2026 point to further upside: about 4,000t of cobalt produced but unsold (inventory rose to US$313.8m current), and royalty income from Chibuluma rising with copper prices. Gearing fell to 41.3% as operating cash flow strengthened.

Management guidance

No numerical guidance has been issued. Management's qualitative outlook (1H2026 prospects) has four elements:

• Copper supported by a widening structural supply deficit.

• Cobalt supported by DRC quotas and inventory depletion.

• Musonoi as a significant contributor to growth.

• Continued cost reduction.

No consensus growth expectations are available.

Bull case

1. Volume plus price. 1H2026 annualises to about 76kt of copper with Musonoi still ramping toward its cited ~43.8ktpa design. With LME prices of about US$14,000/t+ in 2H2026, above the 1H average of US$13,088/t, FY2026 EBITDA could exceed US$400m (the 1H2026 run-rate doubled), against an EV of about US$2.05bn.

2. Cobalt release. About 4,000t of stockpiled cobalt is worth roughly US$200m+ gross at 1H2026 realised prices. Musonoi's grade of about 1% Co makes JCI a material cobalt producer once its quota is granted.

3. De-risked re-rating. All six HKEX conditions have been satisfied, the board has been rebuilt, and controls overhauled. A P/B of 1.31x versus 2.5–3.7x for peers leaves room to re-rate, helped by possible Stock Connect readmission.

Bear case

1. Fiscal take caps the upside. The 1H2026 effective tax rate of about 44%, royalties of US$27.1m per half, a 30% DRC minority leakage (NCI took US$13.2m of 1H2026 profit) and free-carry dilution together mean profits rise far less than revenue when prices rise.

2. Cost and asset fragility. C1 cost of US$5,494/t is up 42%. Ruashi output fell 49% and Kinsenda depends on diesel. A copper reversal similar to FY2022's would compress margins quickly while US$480.7m of external debt remains.

3. Governance overhang persists. The US$144.5m loss and US$66.8m of government-related payments via an intermediary could still lead to legal or regulatory follow-on. Related-party dependence (US$305m in parent loans, connected trading and procurement) and a chair position apparently unfilled after July 2026 could sustain a discount.

Catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)

Analyst verdict

Jinchuan International returns to trading a materially different company from the one that was suspended in March 2025. When trading stopped it was a two-mine, roughly 60ktpa copper producer with collapsing cobalt output, rising gearing and a governance question it could not yet answer. It resumes with a third mine commissioned, half-year EBITDA above any full year since 2021, gearing falling from 50% to 41%, and the Exchange's six resumption conditions formally satisfied. At HK$0.795 the stock trades at about 6x trailing EV/EBITDA and 1.3x book. That is a conspicuous discount to Hong Kong copper peers, which compounded strongly while JCI was frozen.

The discount is not irrational. The forensic findings show that US$144.5m left a subsidiary through fabricated invoices and personal accounts over several years. That reflects a control environment that failed repeatedly, not a single lapse. The DRC fiscal regime takes a large share of every price gain through royalties, the super-profits tax and minority interests, and its free-carry rules erode ownership. Cobalt quota policy can strand inventory indefinitely. The balance sheet still depends on the parent, and the board's new executive directors are, by design, JCG operators.

On balance, the evidence points to an improving but still discounted equity. The near-term earnings trajectory is strong and largely visible: Musonoi volumes are real, capex commitments have fallen to US$11m, and copper is at records. Re-rating toward peer multiples, however, will require proof on three fronts:

• sustained cost control and power reliability at the older mines;

• conversion of the cobalt stockpile into cash;

• governance signals that go beyond rectifying controls, such as an independent-minded chair, higher payouts and transparent related-party dealings.

Investors who can tolerate DRC sovereign risk have a high-beta copper-cobalt instrument with real operating momentum. A full re-rating should be treated as conditional on evidence of reform, not assumed.