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Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc (formerly Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, Ltd.)

Company Profile Analysis

Ticker: KNSA

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Year Founded & Workforce

2015

366 Employees

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Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc Overview

Kiniksa is a London-domiciled, US-operated commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company whose economics today rest almost entirely on ARCALYST (rilonacept), a weekly subcutaneous IL-1α/IL-1β cytokine trap licensed from Regeneron and the first and only FDA-approved therapy for recurrent pericarditis (approved March 2021). The company has converted a niche orphan cardiology indication into a franchise generating $677.6M of net product revenue in FY2025 (+62% YoY) and guided to $980–995M for FY2026, with net income turning sustainably positive in 2025 ($59.0M). Kiniksa shares ARCALYST profits 50/50 with Regeneron, which also manufactures the drug. Having discontinued autoimmune programmes (abiprubart, vixarelimab, mavrilimumab) to concentrate on cardiovascular inflammation, it is now developing next-generation IL-1 receptor antibodies — KPL-387 (monthly dosing, Phase 3 PASTORALE trial underway) and KPL-1161 (quarterly dosing, preclinical) — designed to extend its leadership in recurrent pericarditis beyond ARCALYST's exclusivity horizon.


Company's own description

In every 2025–2026 press release, Kiniksa describes itself as a biopharmaceutical company developing and commercializing novel therapies for diseases with unmet need, with a focus on cardiovascular indications. In earlier periods (2018–2023) it framed itself more broadly around immune-modulating assets across a spectrum of diseases; the pivot to a cardiovascular focus was formalized in February 2025 when the company discontinued abiprubart in Sjögren's Disease and announced KPL-387 development in recurrent pericarditis (8-K, 25 February 2025).

Independent characterization

Kiniksa is best understood as a single-asset commercial orphan cardiology company with a self-funded follow-on pipeline. Its business model has four distinctive features:

  1. In-licensed commercial asset, profit-share economics. ARCALYST was originally approved (2008) and marketed by Regeneron for cryopyrin-associated periodic syndromes (CAPS). Kiniksa licensed it in September 2017, ran the pivotal RHAPSODY trial in recurrent pericarditis, won FDA approval in March 2021, and took over US commercialization of all ARCALYST indications. Under the Regeneron agreement Kiniksa books 100% of net product revenue but records "collaboration expenses" equal to Regeneron's share of collaboration profit (effectively ~50% of profit after defined costs). In FY2025 collaboration expenses were $229.5M against $677.6M of revenue (FY2025 press release).

  2. Outsourced manufacturing. Regeneron supplies ARCALYST drug product; Kiniksa carries manufacturing purchase commitments ($232.5M non-cancellable at 31 Dec 2024, of which $94.9M due within one year, per FY2024 10-K).

  3. Specialty-pharmacy, high-touch commercial model. ARCALYST is distributed through specialty channels with a hub/patient support program (Kiniksa OneConnect). Targeting is concentrated on cardiologists and pericardial disease centres; the company reports >5,000 launch-to-date prescribers and ~29% of prescribers having treated two or more patients (Q2 2026 call).

  4. Out-licensing to monetize non-core assets. License and collaboration revenue (Genentech for vixarelimab; Huadong Medicine for mavrilimumab and rilonacept in Asia-Pacific) contributed $97.7M (FY2022), $37.1M (FY2023), $6.2M (FY2024) and nil in FY2025.

Revenue model mix

Revenue type (USD Mn)FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025
Product revenue, net (ARCALYST)38.5122.5233.2417.0677.6
License & collaboration revenue097.737.16.20
Total revenue38.5220.2270.3423.2677.6
Product share of total revenue (%)10055.686.398.5100

Source: Form 10-K FY2022, FY2023, FY2025; FY2023 and FY2025 earnings releases.

There is no service or subscription revenue. The company is now a pure product-revenue business.

Value-chain position, customers and end markets

Value-chain position: Late-stage developer and commercializer (clinical development, regulatory, market access, sales/marketing). Discovery is limited; manufacturing is outsourced (Regeneron for ARCALYST; CDMOs for pipeline — specific CDMOs n/d).

Direct customers: Specialty pharmacies and specialty distributors (individual customer concentration percentages n/d in sources reviewed).

Prescribers: Cardiologists (general and pericardial specialists), rheumatologists, and other HCPs; the company estimates >25,000 HCPs see recurrent pericarditis patients annually (Q1 2026 call).

Payers: US commercial insurers, Medicare Part D (materially affected by the Inflation Reduction Act's 2025 Part D redesign), and Medicaid.

End markets: (i) Recurrent pericarditis (primary; ~14,000 US patients with multiple recurrences cited as the core target population); (ii) CAPS and deficiency of IL-1 receptor antagonist (DIRA) — legacy rare autoinflammatory indications (revenue split by indication n/d); (iii) Asia-Pacific (ex-Japan) via Huadong partnership.

Strategy

Stated strategic themes

  1. Extend leadership in recurrent pericarditis — drive ARCALYST penetration beyond ~21% of the multiple-recurrence population through new and repeat prescriber growth; the company describes its position as "established leadership in recurrent pericarditis market."

  2. Lifecycle management through next-generation IL-1 blockade — KPL-387 (monthly, liquid) and KPL-1161 (quarterly) to offer more convenient dosing and extend franchise duration beyond ARCALYST's orphan exclusivity.

  3. Cardiovascular focus — explicit prioritization of cardiovascular indications, formalized by discontinuing abiprubart (Feb 2025).

  4. Self-funded growth and financial discipline — "operating plan expected to remain cash flow positive on an annual basis."

  5. Disciplined business development — management remains open to BD but applies "a high bar" and prioritizes internal value creation (Q1 2026 call).

Strategic initiatives in the last 24 months

InitiativeDateDescriptionTarget / KPI
Cardiovascular refocusFeb 2025Discontinued abiprubart; launched KPL-387 and KPL-1161 programmesR&D redeployed to IL-1R1 antibodies
KPL-387 Phase 2/3Mid-2025 → Jul 2026Integrated Phase 2 dose-focusing + Phase 3 PASTORALEEnable 2028/2029 launch
KPL-1161 to clinic2025–2026IND-enabling workPhase 1 FIH by YE 2026
Direct-to-consumer (DTC) campaign2,026First patient-facing awareness campaign for recurrent pericarditis (Q1 2026 call)Increase patient inquiries/diagnosis
Leadership reorganizationJan 2026COO and CSO roles created; AI initiatives assigned to CSOOperational scale-up
Redomiciliation to UKJun 2024Bermuda → England and WalesCorporate/tax structure modernization (professional fees $2.8M in FY2024 SG&A)
AI initiatives2,026Named responsibility of the CSO role (details n/d)—
ESG / sustainability commitments—No quantified sustainability commitments disclosed—
Cost programmes—No formal cost-reduction programme announced; discipline evidenced by R&D decline in FY2025—

Management guidance and medium-term targets

Guidance itemInitialLatestDate of latest—
FY2026 ARCALYST net product revenue$900–920M (12 Jan 2026)$980–995M28 Jul 2026—
Interim FY2026 raise—$930–945M28 Apr 2026—
Annual cash flowPositivePositive28 Apr 2026—
KPL-387 Phase 2 data2H 2026Delivered 28 Jul 2026——
KPL-387 Phase 3 startBy YE 2026Started (PASTORALE enrolling)28 Jul 2026—
KPL-1161 Phase 1 startBy YE 2026On trackJul 2026—
KPL-387 launch—2028/2029 targetJul 2026—
Historical ARCALYST guidance vs actual (USD M)FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025
Initial guidance midpoint122.5197.5370570
Actual122.5233.2417.0677.6
Actual vs initial midpoint (%)0181319

Kiniksa has met or beaten its initial annual ARCALYST guidance every year since launch, typically raising guidance two or more times within the year. No long-range (e.g., 2028–2030) revenue or margin targets have been published.

Products & Services

Kiniksa has one marketed product and two active clinical/preclinical programmes, plus several discontinued or out-licensed assets.

Marketed product

ARCALYST net product revenue (USD Mn)FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025——
Net product revenue38.5122.5233.2417.0677.6——
YoY growth (%)0218907962——
ARCALYST quarterly net revenue (USD M)Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026
Net product revenue122.5137.8156.8180.9202.1214.3243.6

ARCALYST® (rilonacept)

Description: Dimeric fusion protein ("cytokine trap") comprising the ligand-binding domains of IL-1 receptor (IL-1R1) and IL-1 receptor accessory protein linked to human IgG1 Fc; binds and neutralizes IL-1α and IL-1β.

Administration: Weekly subcutaneous injection, supplied as lyophilized powder requiring reconstitution.

Approved indications (US): (1) Recurrent pericarditis and reduction in risk of recurrence in adults and pediatric patients ≥12 years (approved 18 March 2021); (2) CAPS, including familial cold autoinflammatory syndrome and Muckle-Wells syndrome, in adults and children ≥12 (originally approved 2008 for Regeneron); (3) Maintenance of remission of DIRA in adults and pediatric patients weighing ≥10 kg (approved December 2020).

Regulatory protection: US Orphan Drug Exclusivity for recurrent pericarditis granted March 2021 (seven years, i.e., to approximately March 2028). European Commission Orphan Drug designation in idiopathic pericarditis (July 2026 corporate presentation). Biologic reference-product exclusivity for the original 2008 BLA has lapsed; composition patent status n/d in sources reviewed.

Commercial metrics (Q2 2026 release and call): ~21% penetration of the ~14,000 multiple-recurrence US patient population; >5,000 launch-to-date prescribers (~450 new prescribers in Q2 2026); >50% of new prescriptions from repeat prescribers; average total duration of therapy ~3 years; year-to-date 2026 gross-to-net 7.2% (FY2025: 8.4%; FY2024: 9.8%).

Pricing: WAC per vial/annual cost n/d in sources reviewed. Gross-to-net discounts reported as above.

Patient services: Kiniksa OneConnect (trademarked patient support/hub programme).

Territories: Kiniksa holds rights outside the Middle East/North Africa (retained by Regeneron per presentation footnote); Huadong Medicine holds exclusive rights in Asia-Pacific excluding Japan.

Sources: Quarterly 8-K earnings releases. Q1 2025 benefited from a one-time patient bolus linked to the IRA Medicare Part D redesign (Q4 2025 earnings commentary).

Clinical and preclinical pipeline

KPL-387 (monoclonal antibody IL-1 receptor antagonist)

Mechanism: Fully human IgG2 monoclonal antibody binding IL-1R1, blocking signaling of both IL-1α and IL-1β.

Target product profile: Single once-monthly subcutaneous injection in a liquid formulation (vs. ARCALYST's weekly lyophilized injection).

Status: Phase 2/3 trial in recurrent pericarditis (NCT07010159; ~165 participants planned across ~52 sites). Phase 2 interval analysis (28 July 2026): 300 mg SC monthly produced rapid and sustained reductions in pain and inflammation, efficacy durable across the monthly dosing interval, and was generally well tolerated; 300 mg selected for Phase 3. Pivotal Phase 3 portion, PASTORALE, is enrolling up to ~85 participants with a randomized-withdrawal style primary endpoint of reduction in risk of recurrence (mirroring RHAPSODY). A supplemental Phase 2 "Transition to KPL-387 Monotherapy" study is evaluating dosing regimens to switch patients from standard therapies.

Regulatory: FDA Orphan Drug Designation for pericarditis (2025).

Timeline: Development programme designed to enable a 2028/2029 launch (July 2026 Q2 presentation).

KPL-1161 (Fc-modified IL-1 receptor antagonist antibody)

Mechanism: Independently developed, Fc-modified IgG2 monoclonal antibody binding IL-1R1, inhibiting IL-1α and IL-1β.

Target product profile: Quarterly subcutaneous dosing.

Status: IND-enabling/preclinical; Phase 1 first-in-human trial expected to initiate by end of 2026.

Discontinued, deprioritized and out-licensed assets

AssetMechanismLast indication(s)Status
Abiprubart (KPL-404)Anti-CD40 monoclonal antibodySjögren's Disease (Phase 2b); rheumatoid arthritis (earlier Phase 2)Development in Sjögren's discontinued Feb 2025; company exploring strategic alternatives
Vixarelimab (KPL-716)Anti-OSMRβ monoclonal antibodyPrurigo nodularis, chronic pruritic diseasesExclusively licensed worldwide to Genentech (Aug 2022); Kiniksa's own Phase 2b wound down in 2024
Mavrilimumab (KPL-301)Anti-GM-CSFRα monoclonal antibodyGiant cell arteritis; COVID-19Licensed to Huadong in Greater China/Asia territories (Feb 2022); not actively developed by Kiniksa

Product Portfolio

ARCALYST net product revenue (USD Mn)FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025

Net product revenue

38.5122.5233.2417.0677.6

YoY growth (%)

0218907962

ARCALYST quarterly net revenue (USD Mn)

Q4 2024

Q1 2025

Q2 2025

Q3 2025

Q4 2025

Q1 2026

Q2 2026

Net product revenue

122.5137.8156.8180.9202.1214.3243.6

Financial Narrative

Income statement

Sources: 10-K FY2022 (FY2021–FY2022 results table), 10-K FY2023, 10-K FY2024 segment note, 10-K FY2025, FY2025 earnings release; FY2025 EPS and pre-tax from alphaquery extraction of the FY2025 10-K. FY2021 R&D and SG&A rounded (edgar.tools). Weighted average shares FY2025: 74.2M basic, 79.0M diluted. EPS for FY2021–FY2024 is not reproduced because per-share figures were not verifiable from the sources reviewed.

Margin profile

Revenue CAGR FY2021–FY2025: ~105% (total revenue, from $38.5M to $677.6M). ARCALYST CAGR FY2022–FY2025: ~77%.

Commentary. The income statement has three distinct regimes. (1) Launch phase (FY2021): ARCALYST revenue of $38.5M in its first nine months could not cover a cost base built for multiple clinical programmes, producing a $157.9M loss. (2) Licensing-cushioned transition (FY2022–FY2023): ARCALYST scaled to $122.5M and $233.2M while $97.7M and $37.1M of non-recurring license income (Genentech, Huadong) masked underlying operating losses; FY2022 net income of $183.4M was overwhelmingly a $172.3M deferred-tax-asset recognition, not operating profit. (3) Self-sustaining profitability (FY2025 onward): FY2024 still showed an operating loss (-$45.6M) as R&D peaked at $111.6M (abiprubart Phase 2b) and collaboration expense rose with profitability, but FY2025 delivered $77.2M operating income as revenue grew $254M while R&D fell (abiprubart discontinued). The key structural point is that the Regeneron profit share caps Kiniksa's "economic gross margin" at roughly 55% after collaboration expense; operating leverage comes from holding SG&A and R&D growth well below revenue growth. Gross-to-net improved from 9.8% (FY2024) to 8.4% (FY2025) and 7.2% (YTD 2026), supporting margins.

Quarterly trajectory (most recent eight quarters available)

Sources: Quarterly 8-K releases; Q4 2025 opex derived from FY2025 total less 9M 2025 ($418.0M); Q2 2026 operating income $27.2M stated by CFO on Q2 2026 call. Q3 2025 EPS per MarketBeat; Q4 2025 EPS per CNN Markets.

Q2 2026 expense detail (8-K): COGS $23.6M; collaboration expenses $88.1M; R&D $40.9M (vs $18.8M in Q2 2025, driven by KPL-387); SG&A ~$63.8M (derived); share-based compensation $11.6M.

Balance sheet

Sources: edgar.tools extraction of 10-K FY2021–FY2025 (rounded to $M); FY2025 earnings release and Fintool (cash & STI $414.1M vs $243.6M); lease-liability series per VCP Scanner (third-party). Interim: cash, equivalents & STI $468.1M (31 Mar 2026) and $525.9M (30 Jun 2026), no debt; total assets $825.3M and equity $605.7M at 31 March 2026 (VCP Scanner, from 10-Q).

Commentary. Kiniksa has never carried financial debt. Its balance sheet is dominated by liquid assets and a large deferred tax asset ($198M at FY2025), recognized in FY2022–FY2023 as profitability became more likely than not; this DTA will be consumed as UK/US taxable profits rise, which explains FY2025's 33.6% effective tax rate despite no cash tax at that level. Equity nearly tripled from $185M (FY2021) to $568M (FY2025) with no equity raise in the period beyond option exercises, reflecting retained profits plus DTA recognition and share-based compensation. Goodwill/intangibles: none identified in sources reviewed (licensing payments historically expensed as R&D).

Cash flow

Sources: edgar.tools (OCF series), alphaquery extraction of FY2025 10-K (OCF $137.99M, FCF $136.42M, investing -$188.99M, financing +$33.02M). Capex has historically been immaterial (asset-light model). Q1 2026 net cash generation ~$54M (Q1 2026 call).

Commentary. Operating cash flow inflected decisively in FY2025 ($138M vs $26M), roughly 2.3x net income because of non-cash share-based compensation ($37.0M) and deferred-tax utilization. Investing outflows reflect placement of cash into short-term investments. Financing inflows come from option exercises and ESPP. Management guides that its operating plan will remain cash flow positive on an annual basis (Jan 2026 corporate update; Q1 2026 release).

Ratios

Notes: FY2022 ROE/ROA inflated by the $172.3M tax benefit. FY2025 ROIC approximation: operating income $77.2M × (1 – 33.6% effective tax) ÷ (equity $568M – cash & STI $414M). Interest coverage not meaningful (no interest-bearing debt; interest income is positive). Cash conversion cycle per VCP Scanner (third-party; not filing-derived; reflects slow-turning ARCALYST inventory).

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Financial Detail

Results by Segment and Segment Margins & Growth (%)

Single segment (USD Mn)FY2023FY2024FY2025

Total segment revenue

270.3423.2677.6

Segment operating income (loss)

-25.2-45.677.2

Segment pre-tax income (loss) (derived)

-16.6-36.288.9

Segment operating margin (%)

-9.3-10.811.4

YoY revenue growth (%)

22.856.660.1

Share of total revenue (%)

100100100

Segment expense line (USD Mn)

Segment expense line (USD Mn)FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025

Cost of goods sold (derived)

22.833.561.077.5

Collaboration expenses (Regeneron profit share)

24.156.5128.3229.5

Research & development

65.576.1111.697.0

Selling, general & administrative

98.0129.4168.0196.3

Total operating expenses

210.4295.5468.9600.3

Group Entities

EntityJurisdictionFunction

Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc

England & Wales

Ultimate parent; Nasdaq-listed issuer

Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Corp.

Delaware/Massachusetts, USA

US operations, commercial and R&D personnel (Lexington, MA)

Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals (UK), Ltd.

United Kingdom

Contracting entity (named in exhibit list of FY2025 10-K)

Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, GmbH

Switzerland

Collaborating sponsor of KPL-387 Phase 2/3 trial (ClinicalTrials.gov)

Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, Ltd.

Bermuda

Former parent; status post-redomiciliation n/d

Income Statement and Per-Share Data

Metric (USD Mn)FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025

Total revenue

38.5220.2270.3423.2677.6

Cost of goods sold (derived)

10.222.833.561.077.5

Gross profit (total revenue less COGS, derived)

28.3197.4236.8362.2600.1

Collaboration expenses (Regeneron share)

024.156.5128.3229.5

R&D expense

99.065.576.1111.697.0

SG&A expense

86.098.0129.4168.0196.3

Total operating expenses

195.2210.4295.5468.9600.3

Operating income (loss)

-156.69.8-25.2-45.677.2

EBITDA proxy (operating income; D&A not separately disclosed, immaterial)

-156.69.8-25.2-45.677.2

Pre-tax income (loss)

-156.511.0-16.6-36.288.9

Income tax benefit (provision)

-1.4172.330.7-7.0-29.9

Net income (loss)

-157.9183.414.1-43.259.0

EPS basic (USD)

————0.80

EPS diluted (USD)

————0.75

Dividends per share (USD)

00000

Share-based compensation (USD Mn)

25.225.127.1—37.0

Margin (%)

Margin (%)FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025

Gross margin (derived)

73.589.687.685.688.6

Gross margin after collaboration expense (derived)

73.578.766.755.354.7

Operating margin

-406.84.4-9.3-10.811.4

EBITDA margin (proxy)

-406.84.4-9.3-10.811.4

Net margin

-410.183.35.2-10.28.7

Income Statement and Per-Share Data (Quarterly)

Metric (USD Mn)Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026

Total revenue

122.5137.8156.8180.9202.1214.3243.6

Total operating expenses

—124.5136.6156.8182.3185.0216.4

Operating income (derived)

—13.320.224.019.829.327.2

Net income (loss)

-8.98.517.818.414.222.625.4

Diluted EPS (USD)

———0.230.170.270.30

Balance Sheet

Metric (USD Mn)FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025

Total assets

233460526581764

Cash & cash equivalents

122123108184166

Cash, equivalents & short-term investments

———243.6414.1

Total current assets

196243276332527

Deferred tax assets

0185219211198

Total current liabilities

454764101139

Total liabilities

486487142196

Shareholders' equity

185396439438568

Working capital (derived)

151196212231388

Short-term borrowings

00000

Long-term borrowings

00000

Lease liabilities (only debt-like item; third-party)

6.15.912.39.99.5

Net debt (cash & STI less borrowings; negative = net cash)

———-243.6-414.1

Cash Flow

Metric (USD Mn)FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025

Operating cash flow

-12661326138.0

Capital expenditure

————1.6

Free cash flow

————136.4

Investing cash flow

————-189.0

Financing cash flow

————33.0

Dividends paid

00000

Share buybacks

00000

Returns & Leverage Ratios (%) and Financial Ratios (x)

RatioFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025

ROE (%) (net income / average equity, derived)

—63.13.4-9.911.7

ROA (%) (net income / average assets, derived)

—52.92.9-7.88.8

ROIC (%) (NOPAT / equity less cash & STI, derived approximation)

————33

Current ratio (x)

4.365.174.313.293.79

Debt / equity (x, borrowings only)

00000

Net debt / EBITDA (x)

————-5.4

Asset turnover (x, derived)

—0.640.550.761.01

Cash conversion cycle (days, third-party)

————71

Revenue by geography (USD Mn)

Revenue by geography (USD Mn)FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025

United States — ARCALYST product revenue

38.5122.5233.2417.0677.6

United States — license revenue (Genentech)

087.7——0

Greater China / Asia-Pacific — license revenue (Huadong)

010.0——0

Total license & collaboration revenue (all geographies)

097.737.16.20

Total revenue

38.5220.2270.3423.2677.6

US product revenue growth (%)

FY2022

FY2023

FY2024

FY2025

—

YoY growth

218907962—

Share Price History

PeriodPrice return (%)Start price (USD)Start date

1 week

-1.4979.78

9 Oct 2026

1 month

1.2577.62

16 Sep 2026

3 months

22.8963.95

17 Jul 2026

Year to date

90.5241.25

31 Dec 2025

1 year

101.9338.92

16 Oct 2025

3 years

372.5816.63

17 Oct 2023

5 years

586.3811.45

15 Oct 2021

Since IPO (first close)

303.6519.47

24 May 2018

Year-end share price (USD, approximate)

Year-end share price (USD, approximate)FY2025

Closing price

41.25

Valuation Multiples

MultipleKiniksaBasis

Market capitalization (USD Bn)

~6.1

Yahoo Finance

Enterprise value (USD Bn, derived)

~5.6

Market cap less $525.9M cash/STI, no debt

P/E (TTM)

~79

Yahoo (EPS TTM $0.99)

EV/Sales (TTM, derived)

~6.7

TTM revenue ~$841M (FY2025 less 1H25 plus 1H26)

EV/Sales (FY2026E, derived)

~5.7

Guidance midpoint $987.5M

EV/EBITDA (TTM, derived)

~55

TTM operating income ~$102M as EBITDA proxy

P/B (derived)

~10

Equity $605.7M at 31 Mar 2026

Capital Markets

ItemDetail

Ratings

8 Buy, 1 Hold (MarketBeat, Oct 2026); consensus "Strong Buy" (StockAnalysis)

Consensus 12-month price target

$98.00 (~25% upside vs $78.59)

Coverage examples

Wedbush ($53 PT, Feb 2026 — likely since revised), Canaccord (Buy, initiated Feb 2026), Citi (Buy), TD Cowen (Buy), Wells Fargo (participant on calls)

Q3 2026 consensus

EPS ~$0.37; revenue ~$260.2M (MarketBeat)

Zacks Rank

Neutral (Yahoo, Sep 2026)

Dividend history

None paid since IPO; no dividend policy

Buyback authorizations

None announced

Credit ratings (Moody's / S&P / Fitch)

Not rated

Debt maturity profile

No borrowings; only operating lease liabilities (~$9.5M at FY2025, third-party data)

Analyst Conclusions

Management guidance and consensus expectations

Management guides FY2026 ARCALYST net revenue of $980–995M (+45–47% YoY on $677.6M), annual positive cash flow, KPL-1161 entering Phase 1 by year-end 2026, and a KPL-387 launch in 2028/2029. First-half 2026 revenue was $457.9M, implying a second half of ~$522–537M (roughly $260–270M per quarter), consistent with Q3 2026 consensus of $260M. Consensus quarterly EPS is rising ($0.32–0.37 Q3, ~$0.35+ Q4 2026 per MarketBeat estimate tables).

Bull case

  1. The penetration runway is long and the business compounds: Only ~21% of ~14,000 multiple-recurrence patients are treated, ~29% of prescribers have treated two or more patients, and duration averages ~3 years; each cohort layers on recurring revenue, supporting continued 30%+ growth into 2027.

  2. Margin expansion is just beginning: Operating income of $27.2M on $243.6M revenue in Q2 2026 (11%) despite a doubled R&D budget; once KPL-387 Phase 3 costs peak, incremental revenue at ~55% post-collaboration margin flows to profit.

  3. KPL-387 neutralizes the exclusivity cliff: Positive Phase 2 data and a Phase 3 design mirroring RHAPSODY create a credible path to a monthly, liquid, orphan-protected successor — wholly owned and outside the Regeneron profit share — potentially lifting Kiniksa's economics per patient when patients transition.

Bear case

  1. Valuation already discounts success: ~79x trailing earnings and ~5.7x forward EV/Sales after a +102% one-year move leave little room for any guidance miss or GTN wobble (Q4 2025's EPS miss illustrates sensitivity).

  2. Competitive and policy pressure converge around 2028: Orphan exclusivity lapses ~March 2028, Lilly-backed oral NLRP3 and Cardiol's oral CardiolRx are in development, and US pricing reform continues — just as KPL-387 would be launching.

  3. Structural dependence: 100% single-product revenue, Regeneron manufacturing and ~half of ARCALYST profits flowing to Regeneron, plus concentrated insider/Baker ownership, limit strategic flexibility and amplify any supply or safety shock.

Key catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)

TimingCatalyst / monitorable
27 Oct 2026 (expected)Q3 2026 results; possible third guidance raise
YE 2026KPL-1161 Phase 1 first-in-human initiation
YE 2026 / 1H 2027PASTORALE enrollment pace (up to ~85 patients)
Jan 2027FY2027 ARCALYST guidance (J.P. Morgan conference)
Q1 2027Gross-to-net seasonality and co-pay resets
2026–2027Lilly/VTX2735 Phase 2 RP data and next steps; Cardiol MAVERIC readouts
OngoingPrescriber growth, penetration (%), duration of therapy, DTC campaign effect
OngoingUS drug-pricing policy (IRA, MFN) and any biosimilar rilonacept activity
OngoingCapital deployment — BD transactions or initiation of shareholder returns

Concluding analyst verdict

Kiniksa has executed one of the cleaner orphan-drug repurposing stories in recent biotech: it took a Regeneron asset with modest sales in ultra-rare autoinflammatory diseases, generated pivotal outcomes data in recurrent pericarditis, and built a cardiology franchise that has grown from $38.5M (FY2021) to a ~$975M annualized run-rate in Q2 2026, all without debt or meaningful dilution since its IPO era. The company is now sustainably profitable, cash generative ($525.9M cash, zero debt), and has consistently under-promised and over-delivered on guidance. The July 2026 KPL-387 Phase 2 readout materially de-risks the most important strategic question — whether Kiniksa can own recurrent pericarditis beyond ARCALYST's orphan exclusivity — and does so with a wholly owned asset outside the Regeneron profit share.

The counterweights are equally clear. The equity trades at a premium (~79x trailing earnings, ~5.7x forward EV/Sales) that already capitalizes several years of growth and a successful KPL-387 transition. Revenue remains 100% dependent on one product made by one partner, and the 2028–2029 window bundles three risks at once: orphan exclusivity expiry, the arrival of oral competitors (now including a Lilly-owned NLRP3 inhibitor), and the KPL-387 launch itself. Governance is founder- and Baker-centric, with a combined Chair/CEO and multi-class shares, and ESG disclosure is minimal.

On balance, the fundamental trajectory is strong and evidence-based: penetration (~21%) leaves ample headroom, therapy duration underpins recurring revenue, and operating leverage is visible. The investment debate is therefore less about business quality than about price and timing. Kiniksa merits a constructive fundamental view with a valuation caution: near-term catalysts (Q3 results, 2027 guidance) are likely supportive, but long-term outperformance requires PASTORALE success, smooth patient migration to KPL-387, and evidence that oral competitors will not commoditize IL-1-pathway therapy in recurrent pericarditis.


Sources referenced throughout: Kiniksa Form 10-K (FY2022, FY2023, FY2024, FY2025), ARS FY2023 and FY2025, Form 8-K earnings releases (Q1 2022 through Q2 2026), 8-Ks dated 12 and 14 January 2026 and 1 May 2026, DEF 14A (2021, 2025 supplement, 2026), Q2 2026 and July 2026 corporate presentations, Q4 2025/Q1 2026/Q2 2026 earnings call transcripts, ClinicalTrials.gov NCT07010159, Cardiol Therapeutics MAVERIC disclosures, Novartis FY2025 20-F and product-sales data, Eli Lilly/Ventyx acquisition announcement (January 2026), and market data from Yahoo Finance, MarketBeat, StockAnalysis, Motley Fool, edgar.tools, alphaquery, VCP Scanner and blarkad.com (13F). Figures marked "derived" are analyst calculations; "n/d" indicates data not publicly disclosed or not verifiable in the sources reviewed.

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Executive Leadership

Executive Leadership Team

NameTitleTenure / startPrior roles (public record)

Sanj K. Patel

Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Founder, 2015–present

President & CEO, Synageva BioPharma (acquired by Alexion, 2015); earlier commercial leadership roles in biopharma

Ross Moat

Chief Operating Officer and principal operating officer

COO since 10 Jan 2026; previously Chief Corporate and Commercial Officer

Leads ARCALYST commercial operations plus functional operations

Mark Ragosa

Chief Financial Officer

—

Reviews financials on earnings calls; sold 12,000 Class A shares on 8 Jan 2026 (Form 4)

John F. Paolini, MD, PhD

Chief Medical Officer

—

Leads KPL-387 development programme

Douglas Barry

Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer

—

Signatory of 2026 8-Ks

Eben Tessari

Former Chief Strategy Officer

CSO 10 Jan 2026 – 15 May 2026

Responsible for strategy, business development, technical operations and AI initiatives; now consultant and advisor to the Science and Research Committee through May 2027

Board of Directors

DirectorClassRole / notes

Sanj K. Patel

Class I (term to 2028)

Chairman & CEO (non-independent)

Thomas R. Malley

Class I (term to 2028)

Independent director

Richard S. Levy

Class I (term to 2028)

Independent director

Stephen R. Biggar

Class II (re-election at 2026 AGM)

Independent director

Barry D. Quart

Class II

Independent director

Felix J. Baker

Class III

Co-founder/Managing Member, Baker Bros. Advisors (major shareholder)

Kimberly J. Popovits

Class III

Independent director

Remaining three directors

Classes II/III

Names not confirmed in sources reviewed

Board & Management Changes

DateChangeContext

10 Jan 2026

Ross Moat named COO

Expanded from commercial leadership to company-wide operations

10 Jan 2026

Eben Tessari named Chief Strategy Officer

Remit: strategy, BD, technical operations, AI

30 Apr 2026

Tessari resigns (effective 15 May 2026)

To pursue another life-sciences executive role; retained as consultant

Major Shareholders

RankHolderClass A shares (M)% of Class A (Yahoo)Value (USD Mn)Date
1

FMR LLC (Fidelity)

6.9717.30543.1

30 Jun 2026

2

Rubric Capital Management LP

4.009.92311.6

30 Jun 2026

3

Baker Bros. Advisors LP

2.837.03220.8

30 Jun 2026

4

BlackRock Inc.

2.746.80213.4

30 Jun 2026

5

Tang Capital Management LLC

2.265.61176.1

30 Jun 2026

6

Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC

1.914.74148.9

30 Jun 2026

7

Vanguard Capital Management LLC

1.363.38106.0

30 Jun 2026

8

Morgan Stanley

1.012.5178.8

30 Jun 2026

9

Arrowstreet Capital LP

0.962.3874.6

30 Jun 2026

10

Caption Management / D. E. Shaw (Q1 2026 13F)

~1.0

——

31 Mar 2026

Competitive Landscape

Key Competitors

#CompetitorProduct / candidateMechanismStage in RPPositioning vs ARCALYST
1

Novartis

Ilaris (canakinumab)

Anti-IL-1β mAb

Off-label (approved in periodic fever syndromes, Still's)

Global brand sales $1,883M FY2025 (+25%); blocks IL-1β only; no RP label

2

Sobi (Swedish Orphan Biovitrum)

Kineret (anakinra)

IL-1 receptor antagonist (daily injection)

Off-label in RP (guideline-referenced)

Daily dosing, injection-site reactions; lower cost; no US RP label

3

Eli Lilly (via Ventyx acquisition, ~$1.2B announced Jan 2026)

VTX2735

Oral, peripherally restricted NLRP3 inhibitor

Phase 2 in RP

Most credible long-term oral threat backed by large pharma

4

Cardiol Therapeutics (Nasdaq/TSX: CRDL)

CardiolRx (oral cannabidiol solution)

Anti-inflammatory (inhibits IL-1β/IL-1α/IL-6, NLRP3 signaling)

Phase 3 MAVERIC (NCT06708299) and Phase 2/3 MAVERIC-2

Oral; positioned for IL-1-blocker discontinuation and second line; FDA orphan designation

5

R-Pharm

Goflikicept (RPH-104)

IL-1α/β trap

Approved/late-stage in Russia (US status n/d)

Non-US; mechanistically similar

6

Novo Nordisk (via Ventus Therapeutics license)

NLRP3 inhibitor

Oral NLRP3

Phase 1 (MASH/CV)

Not yet in RP; class read-across

7

Generic NSAIDs / colchicine manufacturers

Colchicine, NSAIDs

Anti-inflammatory

Standard of care

First-line; precede ARCALYST

8

Generic glucocorticoid manufacturers

Prednisone etc.

Corticosteroid

Standard of care (refractory)

Steroid-sparing is ARCALYST's value proposition

9

Kiniksa itself (KPL-387, KPL-1161)

Next-gen IL-1R1 mAbs

IL-1α/β receptor blockade

Phase 3 / preclinical

Planned self-cannibalization/lifecycle

10

Potential biosimilar rilonacept entrants

——

None announced

Long-term risk once orphan exclusivity lapses (~2028)

Peer Comparison FY2025

Metric (FY2025)KiniksaNovartis (Ilaris brand)Cardiol Therapeutics

Relevant revenue (USD Mn)

677.61,8830

Relevant revenue growth (%)

6225—

Company operating margin (%)

11.440.1—

Company R&D intensity (% of revenue)

14.3—

n/m (pre-revenue)

Company Snapshot

$677.6M

Revenue

366

Employees

2015

Founded

London, United Kingdom

Headquarters

SWOT Analysis

Strengths

  • Monopoly label: ARCALYST is the first and only FDA-approved therapy for recurrent pericarditis (approved March 2021; July 2026 presentation).
  • Hyper-growth with operating leverage: Revenue +62% to $677.6M in FY2025 while R&D fell from $111.6M to $97.0M, producing $77.2M operating income (FY2025 10-K).
  • Durable patient economics: Average therapy duration ~3 years and >50% of new prescriptions from repeat prescribers (Q2 2026 release).
  • Fortress liquidity: $525.9M cash and STI, zero debt (30 June 2026), and guided annual positive cash flow.
  • Guidance credibility: Actual ARCALYST revenue exceeded initial-guidance midpoints by 18% (FY2023), 13% (FY2024) and 19% (FY2025).
  • De-risked lifecycle asset: KPL-387 Phase 2 showed rapid, sustained responses at 300 mg monthly; Phase 3 enrolling (28 July 2026) with orphan designation (2025).

Weaknesses

  • Single-product concentration: 100% of FY2025 revenue from ARCALYST in the US.
  • Profit share: Collaboration expense of $229.5M (34% of FY2025 revenue) paid to Regeneron.
  • Supply dependence: Regeneron manufactures ARCALYST; $232.5M non-cancellable purchase commitments (FY2024 10-K).
  • Dosing inconvenience: Weekly SC injection requiring reconstitution, the very gap KPL-387 targets.
  • Thin net margin relative to growth: FY2025 net margin 8.7%, effective tax ~34% as DTA is consumed.
  • Leadership churn at strategy level: CSO appointed January 2026 departed May 2026 (8-K, 1 May 2026).

Opportunities

  • Penetration runway: ~79% of the ~14,000 multiple-recurrence population not yet on therapy (Q2 2026).
  • Earlier-line use: Potential expansion into first-recurrence patients (raised by Citi on Q2 2026 call).
  • Franchise extension: KPL-387 targeting 2028/2029 launch could migrate patients before ARCALYST exclusivity erodes.
  • Quarterly dosing: KPL-1161 Phase 1 by YE 2026 offers a potential best-in-class convenience profile.
  • BD optionality: Cash pile and positive cash flow enable in-licensing; management describes a "high bar" approach (Q1 2026 call).
  • Ex-US monetization: Huadong partnership in Asia-Pacific; EU orphan designation in idiopathic pericarditis provides a European pathway.

Threats

  • Large-pharma oral competitor: Lilly's ~$1.2B acquisition of Ventyx (Jan 2026) brings VTX2735 (oral NLRP3) in Phase 2 RP under a well-resourced owner.
  • Late-stage oral challenger: Cardiol's CardiolRx in Phase 3 MAVERIC and Phase 2/3 MAVERIC-2.
  • Exclusivity cliff: Orphan exclusivity in RP runs ~to March 2028; original BLA reference-product exclusivity has lapsed.
  • Pricing policy: IRA Part D redesign (already affecting gross-to-net) and potential future Medicare negotiation/MFN measures.
  • Off-label substitution: Anakinra and canakinumab used off-label, sometimes favoured by payers.
  • Valuation risk: Shares +102% over one year and ~79x trailing P/E (Yahoo Finance), leaving little room for disappointment (Seeking Alpha headline, Oct 2026).

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Key Developments

DateEventSignificance
21 Apr 20252025 definitive proxy filedGovernance; NEO compensation disclosure
Late Apr 2025Q1 2025 results: ARCALYST $137.8M; net income $8.5MIncluded one-time IRA Part D patient bolus
9 May 2025Proxy supplement correcting omitted elements of Ross Moat's compensationDisclosure-control item; no financial restatement
3 Jun 20252025 AGM; Class I directors re-electedPatel re-elected with ~48.3M votes for
Mid-2025KPL-387 Phase 2/3 trial initiated (NCT07010159)Lifecycle programme enters clinic in RP
2025FDA grants Orphan Drug Designation to KPL-387 for pericarditisPotential seven-year exclusivity
Jul 2025Q2 2025 results: revenue $156.8M; net income $17.8MContinued profitability
Oct 2025Q3 2025 results: revenue $180.9M; net income $18.4MThird consecutive profitable quarter of 2025
31 Oct 2025CMO executes pre-planned 10b5-1 share salesRoutine insider activity
15 Dec 2025COO-level insider equity transaction (Form 4)Routine
7 Jan 2026Eli Lilly agrees to acquire Ventyx Biosciences (~$1.2B), owner of oral NLRP3 inhibitor VTX2735 in Phase 2 for recurrent pericarditisRaises competitive intensity — large pharma enters RP
8 Jan 2026CFO Mark Ragosa sells 12,000 Class A sharesRoutine insider sale
10 Jan 2026Ross Moat appointed COO; Eben Tessari appointed CSOLeadership broadening
12 Jan 2026Corporate update at J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference; FY2026 guidance $900–920MImplied ~33–36% growth
13 Jan 2026Wedbush raises price target to $50 from $48Sell-side momentum
19 Feb 2026Canaccord initiates coverage with BuyBroadening coverage
24 Feb 2026FY2025 results: revenue $677.6M (+62%); net income $59.0M; Q4 EPS $0.17 vs ~$0.33 consensusFirst full profitable year; EPS miss on tax/reserve adjustments
24 Feb 2026FY2025 Form 10-K filedAnnual disclosure
25 Feb 2026Wedbush raises price target to $53—
18 Mar 2026Fifth anniversary of ARCALYST approval in RPMilestone; orphan exclusivity ~2 years remaining
28 Apr 2026Q1 2026: revenue $214.3M (+56%); net income $22.6M; diluted EPS $0.27 vs $0.19 consensus; guidance raised to $930–945M; cash $468.1MStock up ~13% intraday
30 Apr 2026CSO Eben Tessari resigns effective 15 May 2026Short tenure; retained as consultant
1H 2026DTC awareness campaign launchedFirst consumer-facing investment
29 May 20262026 AGM: UK statutory accounts, Directors' Remuneration Policy, PwC reappointmentUK plc governance cycle
28 Jul 2026Q2 2026: revenue $243.6M (+55%); net income $25.4M; operating income $27.2M; cash $525.9MRecord quarter
28 Jul 2026KPL-387 Phase 2 interval data positive; 300 mg SC monthly selected; PASTORALE Phase 3 enrollingDe-risks lifecycle strategy
28 Jul 2026FY2026 guidance raised to $980–995MSecond raise of the year
Sep 2026Scheduled biannual equity grant to CEO (per proxy)Compensation
8 Oct 2026Weiss Ratings upgrades to Buy (B-)—
15 Oct 2026Shares hit new 52-week high (~$82.98)Valuation peak
27 Oct 2026 (expected)Q3 2026 results; consensus EPS ~$0.37, revenue ~$260.2M (MarketBeat)Next catalyst

Financial Performance

Explore key financial metrics, segmented revenue, balance sheet health, and performance trends.

Revenue

5 charts
Income Statement: Revenue & Gross Profit: Total revenue rose from USD 38.5 Mn in FY2021 to USD 677.6 Mn in FY2025.
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc — Income Statement: Revenue & Gross Profit
Series (USD Mn)FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025
Total revenue38.5220.2270.3423.2677.6
Cost of goods sold10.222.833.56177.5
Gross profit (total revenue less COGS)28.3197.4236.8362.2600.1

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