LyondellBasell Industries NV Overview
LyondellBasell is one of the world's largest commodity-chemical and polymer producers and the dominant Western licensor of polyolefin process technology. Its earnings engine is a feedstock-advantaged U.S. Gulf Coast olefins and polyethylene complex that can run up to ~90% on natural-gas liquids, complemented by the world's #2 polypropylene position, the #2 global propylene-oxide position, the world's largest oxyfuels (MTBE/ETBE) business, a compounding business (Advanced Polymer Solutions) and a high-margin Technology segment (Spheripol, Spherizone, Hostalen, Lupotech licences; Avant catalysts). After a prolonged 2023–2025 petrochemical downturn that produced a FY2025 GAAP loss, USD 1.25B of write-downs and a 50% dividend cut, the company is mid-way through a portfolio reset: exiting refining, selling four European crackers/polymer sites to AEQUITA, and cutting fixed costs and capex. A Middle-East-war-driven supply shock in 2026 has sharply lifted margins, making LYB a high-beta cyclical recovery story with an elevated but improving balance sheet.
Company's own description (paraphrased from FY2025 10-K, Items 1 & 2)
LyondellBasell describes itself as a global, independent chemical company participating across the petrochemical value chain and leading in many of its product lines. Its chemicals businesses are mainly large processing plants converting large volumes of liquid and gaseous hydrocarbon feedstocks into plastic resins and other chemicals that serve as building blocks for downstream products — food packaging, home furnishings, automotive components, paints and coatings. It also develops and licenses chemical and polyolefin process technologies and manufactures and sells polyolefin catalysts. The company emphasises safe, reliable, low-cost operation as its differentiator in commodity markets and highlights the structural advantage of U.S. natural-gas-derived feedstocks versus crude-oil-derived feedstocks elsewhere.
Business model and revenue model
| Revenue model element | Approximate share | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Product sales — polyethylene | ~24% of consolidated revenue (FY2025) | FY2025 10-K |
| Product sales — polypropylene | ~19% | FY2025 10-K |
| Product sales — oxyfuels & related products | ~16% | FY2025 10-K |
| Product sales — olefins & co-products | ~14% | FY2025 10-K |
| Product sales — APS compounds & solutions | ~11% | FY2025 10-K |
| Product sales — PO & derivatives, styrene, acetyls (balance of I&D) | ~14–15% (derived residual) | Derived |
| Technology licensing, services & catalyst sales (external) | ~1–2% (derived) | Derived from segment revenue net of ~20% intersegment catalyst sales |
LYB is overwhelmingly a product-sales business (commodity and semi-specialty chemicals sold on annual contracts, multi-year contracts, cost-plus arrangements and spot). A small but highly profitable licensing and catalyst stream (Technology segment, USD 549M segment revenue in FY2025, including intersegment catalyst sales) adds technology rents. There is no meaningful subscription or service revenue.
Value-chain position
LYB sits in the upstream-to-midstream part of the petrochemical chain: it buys NGLs (ethane, propane, butane), naphtha, condensate, natural gas, benzene, ethanol and methanol, cracks/converts them to monomers (ethylene, propylene, butadiene, benzene), polymerises them (PE, PP, Catalloy, polybutene-1), and converts propylene/isobutane into PO, TBA, MTBE/ETBE, SM and C4 chemicals. APS moves one step further downstream (compounds, masterbatches, colours). The Technology segment sits "above" the chain as an IP and catalyst supplier to LYB's own plants, its JVs and third-party licensees.
Customer types and end-markets
| End-market | Primary LYB products | Exposure commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Flexible & rigid packaging (food, consumer) | PE, PP, masterbatches | Largest end-use; sensitive to consumer demand and plastics regulation |
| Automotive | PP compounds (APS), Catalloy, PO/polyols (PU seating) | APS heavily auto-exposed; 2025 auto downturn drove APS impairments |
| Construction / housing / durables | PE pipe, PO/PU insulation, SM, VAM | Rate- and housing-sensitive |
| Fuels / transportation | MTBE, ETBE, high-octane blendstocks | Oxyfuels ≈16% of revenue; margins tied to gasoline cracks/octane spreads |
| Healthcare, textiles, agriculture | PP (Purell medical grades), masterbatches, films | Smaller niches |
| Industrial / chemicals | Ethylene/propylene sales, acetic acid, methanol, C4s | Merchant-market exposure |
No single customer exceeded 10% of revenue in 2023–2025 (FY2025 10-K). Customers are converters (film, moulding, pipe, fibre), packaging producers, automotive Tier-1s/OEMs (via APS PP compounds), polyurethane producers (via PO/polyols), fuel blenders and refiners (oxyfuels, primarily outside the U.S.), coatings/adhesives makers (VAM, acetyls), synthetic rubber producers (C4s) and petrochemical licensees.
Independent characterisation
LYB is a cost-curve-advantaged, operationally levered commodity producer whose earnings are driven by (i) the spread between U.S. ethane and global polyethylene prices (set by naphtha-based marginal producers), (ii) global PP and PO supply/demand, (iii) gasoline octane premiums, and (iv) its own reliability. Roughly 80–90% of mid-cycle EBITDA historically came from O&P-Americas and I&D. Europe (O&P-EAI) has been structurally loss-making at segment EBITDA level since 2024, which is why the company is shrinking it. The Technology segment is a scarce, high-return asset (licensing of the industry-standard Spheripol/Spherizone PP and Hostalen PE processes), but too small to offset cyclicality. The 2026 upswing is primarily exogenous (Middle East supply disruption), not structural; the investment case therefore hinges on whether self-help (cost, portfolio) holds after the shock fades.
Strategy
Stated strategy (FY2025 10-K, three pillars — paraphrased)
-
Grow and upgrade the core. Reshape the portfolio toward businesses with leading positions in growing markets, advantaged feedstocks and attractive returns, leveraging technology, cost management, operational excellence and global reach.
-
Build a profitable Circular & Low Carbon Solutions (CLCS) business. Become a leader in sustainable polymers at scale via a sourcing platform for recycled and renewable feedstocks, proprietary technologies (MoReTec) and existing assets. CLCS sits within the two O&P segments.
-
Step up performance and culture. Shift culture toward continuous value creation, including transformation of APS.
Enablers cited: experienced leadership and ownership mindset; advantaged cost position and scale; the Value Enhancement Program; strong cash generation; capital allocation grounded in an investment-grade balance sheet.
Initiatives launched or updated in the last 24 months
| Initiative | Launched / updated | Target / status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value Enhancement Program (VEP) | 2023; target updated Jan 2026 | USD 1.1B recurring EBITDA achieved in 2025; new target USD 1.5B recurring EBITDA by 2028 | Q4 2025 call |
| Cash Improvement Plan (CIP) | Apr 2025; upsized Jan 2026 | USD 800M delivered in 2025 vs USD 600M goal; cumulative target raised from USD 1.1B to USD 1.3B by YE2026 (additional USD 500M vs 2025 actuals) | Q4 2025 release |
| European portfolio exit | Announced Jun 2025; completed 1 May 2026 | Four sites sold to AEQUITA; ~25% of O&P-EAI capacity; USD 734M pre-tax loss on sale; USD 310M cash contribution to buyer at closing | Q2 2026 release/10-Q |
| Refining exit | Announced 2022; completed Feb 2025 | Expected to cut scope 1&2 by ~3 Mt and scope 3 by ~40 Mt by end-2026 vs 2020 | FY2025 10-K |
| Capex reduction | 2025–2026 | FY2026 capex plan USD 1.2B (vs USD 1.9B in 2025); ~15% sustainability-related | Q4 2025 release |
| Flex-2 (Channelview on-purpose propylene) | Deferred 2025 | Resume "when market conditions improve" | FY2025 10-K |
| MoReTec-1 (Wesseling, 50 ktpa) | Under construction since 2024 | Start-up targeted 2027 | FY2025 10-K |
| MoReTec-2 (Houston) | FID postponed 2025 | Pipeline project | FY2025 10-K |
| Middle East expansion | Ongoing | Listed as pipeline project; NATPET stake (2024) | Q4 2025 release |
| Updated sustainability targets | 2,026 | 800 kt recycled/renewable polymers per year by 2030; scope 1&2 −32% by 2030 vs 2020; scope 3 −30% by 2030; net zero scope 1&2 by 2050 | FY2025 10-K |
| Renewable PPAs | 2,024 | ≥50% of electricity from renewables by 2030; ~5.0 TWh/yr; >1.8 Mt scope 2 reduction | FY2025 10-K |
| Dividend recalibration | Feb 2026 | Quarterly dividend cut to USD 0.69; continued commitment to return 70% of FCF through the cycle | 20 Feb 2026 release |
| Workforce reduction | 2,025 | ~7% reduction to ~18,970 (10-K) | FY2025 10-K |
Medium-term financial targets / guidance
Capital allocation: investment-grade balance sheet is the foundation; return ~70% of free cash flow to shareholders through the cycle.
2026 capex: USD 1.2B.
CIP: cumulative USD 1.3B cash improvement by YE2026.
VEP: USD 1.5B recurring EBITDA by 2028.
Operating rates (Q1 2026 guide): O&P-Americas ~85%, O&P-EAI ~75%, I&D ~85%; North America ran ~90% in Q2 2026 (secondary reporting).
- The 2023 Capital Markets Day ambition of USD 3B incremental normalised EBITDA by 2027 has not been reiterated in the retrieved 2026 materials and should be regarded as superseded/de-emphasised.
Products & Services
Capacities are LYB share including proportional JV share, as of 31 Dec 2025 (FY2025 10-K) unless stated. Pricing is not publicly disclosed product-by-product; commodity products are priced against industry indices (ICIS, IHS/S&P Global, CDI) on contract or spot terms.
O&P-Americas
| Product | Description / specification | Target customers | Capacity / position | Pricing model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethylene | Steam-cracked from NGLs (up to ~90% NGL-capable) or heavy liquids; crackers at Channelview, Corpus Christi, La Porte, Clinton, Morris, Lake Charles (JV) | Internal PE/derivatives; third parties via Gulf Coast pipeline (Corpus Christi–Mont Belvieu) | 6.2 Mtpa; #3 in North America | Long-term contracts; index-linked |
| Propylene | Co-product of cracking; LYB is net buyer | Internal PP, PO; merchant | — | Contract/spot; cost-recovery formulas |
| Butadiene, benzene, aromatics, gasoline blendstocks | Heavy-liquid co-products | Rubber, styrenics, refiners | — | Market-based |
| HDPE (Hostalen ACP, Hyperzone technology) | High-density PE: blow moulding, pipe, film, injection moulding | Packaging and pipe converters | Within 4.1 Mtpa PE; #3 in North America | Annual contract/spot; export largely to Latin America |
| LDPE (Lupotech) | Tubular/autoclave LDPE for film, extrusion coating | Film converters | Within 4.1 Mtpa | Contract/spot |
| LLDPE | Gas-phase/solution LLDPE for stretch, liners | Film converters | Within 4.1 Mtpa | Contract/spot |
| Polypropylene (homopolymer, copolymer; Spheripol/Spherizone) | Brands include Pro-fax, Moplen, Hifax, Adflex (legacy Montell/Basell brands; brand usage by region) | Packaging, fibres, automotive, appliances | 1.9 Mtpa; #1 in North America (incl. Indelpro JV share ~290 kt) | Contract/spot |
| Catalloy process resins | Reactor TPOs/soft PP alloys (Hifax, Adflex, Softell) | Roofing membranes, automotive, geomembranes | ~290 kt in Americas | Specialty pricing |
| Circulen portfolio (Americas) | Mass-balance renewable/recycled PE/PP | Brand owners | Part of CLCS | Premium to virgin |
O&P-EAI (post-AEQUITA divestiture footprint: Wesseling, Moerdijk, Ferrara, Frankfurt, Knapsack plus JVs)
| Product | Description | Capacity / position (YE2025, pre-divestiture) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ethylene / propylene (naphtha, LPG-flexible) | Up to half of naphtha replaceable by LPG | 1.9 Mtpa ethylene; #3 in Europe | ~25% of segment capacity sold to AEQUITA in Q2 2026 |
| PE (HDPE, LDPE, LLDPE) | Hostalen, Lupotech, Lupolen brands | 2.1 Mtpa; #1 in Europe | Münchsmünster, Carrington exited |
| PP (Moplen, Hifax, Adflex, Purell) | Incl. Purell healthcare grades | 2.5 Mtpa; #1 in Europe (incl. ~280 kt Catalloy) | Tarragona, Berre exited |
| Polybutene-1 (Toppyl, Akoafloor) | Hot-water pipe, seal-peel packaging | — | Niche specialty |
| JV volumes (Saudi Arabia, China, Poland, South Korea, Thailand) | Non-operated | ~1.8 Mtpa PP, ~1.6 Mtpa olefins, ~760 kt PE (LYB share) | Includes SEPC/Al-Waha, NATPET (Saudi), Basell Orlen (Poland), HMC (Thailand), Polymirae (Korea), Chinese JVs (Ningbo, Bora) |
| CirculenRecover | Mechanically recycled polymers (via Quality Circular Polymers, Netherlands/Belgium) | — | Recycling platform |
| CirculenRevive | Advanced/chemically recycled feedstock-based polymers (pyrolysis oil, mass balance) | MoReTec-1 (50 ktpa) start-up targeted 2027 | Flagship circular product |
| CirculenRenew | Bio-based (renewable feedstock) polymers, mass balance (e.g., Neste feedstock) | — | Premium |
Intermediates & Derivatives
| Product | Description | Position | Pricing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Propylene oxide (PO) — PO/TBA route | Co-produces TBA; includes new Channelview PO/TBA plant (2023) | #2 PO producer worldwide | Multi-year, cost-plus and spot |
| PO — PO/SM route | Co-produces styrene monomer; Channelview PO/SM I (Covestro JV) | Maasvlakte PO/SM JV closed 2025 | — |
| PO derivatives: propylene glycol (PG), PG ethers, butanediol (BDO) | Polyurethanes, coatings, de-icing, solvents, spandex/PBT (BDO) | Major global supplier | Contract |
| Oxyfuels: MTBE, ETBE | High-octane gasoline blending components; sold mainly outside the U.S. | #1 oxyfuels producer worldwide | Market and cost-based; spot |
| C4 chemicals (high-purity isobutylene etc.) | Synthetic rubber, fuel/lube additives | — | Contract |
| Styrene monomer (SM) | Packaging, insulation, durables | Incl. ~300 kt from Chinese JVs | Spot/contract |
| Methanol | La Porte and Channelview, natural-gas-based | Merchant and captive | Market |
| Glacial acetic acid (GAA) | La Porte (Millennium heritage) | Largely captive into VAM | — |
| Vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) | Coatings, adhesives, films | Global sales | Multi-year/spot |
Advanced Polymer Solutions
| Product line | Description | Target market | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP compounds | Filled/reinforced PP blends (e.g., Hostacom, Hifax compounds) | Automotive interior/exterior | Largest APS line; auto-cyclical |
| Engineered plastics | PA, PBT, ABS and other engineering compounds (legacy A. Schulman Schulamid/Schuladur) | Auto, E&E, industrial | Higher margin |
| Masterbatches | Additive/colour masterbatches (Polybatch) | Packaging, agriculture, durables | — |
| Engineered composites | SMC/BMC composites (legacy Quantum Composites) | Aerospace, auto, electrical | — |
| Performance colours | Powdered and pelletised colour concentrates | Plastics industry | — |
| Specialty powders (U.S.) | Rotomoulding powders | — | Sold Sep 2025 |
| Capacity via JVs | ~70 kt (Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Thailand) | — | Indonesia JV majority-owned |
Technology
| Offering | Description | Customer | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spheripol | Bulk-loop PP process; global industry workhorse | PP producers worldwide | Licence fee + catalyst supply |
| Spherizone | Multi-zone circulating reactor PP process for bimodal/high-performance PP | PP producers | Licence + catalysts |
| Hostalen ACP | Advanced cascade process for multimodal HDPE (pipe, film) | PE producers | Licence |
| Lupotech T / TS / G | High-pressure tubular LDPE/EVA processes | LDPE producers | Licence |
| Spherilene | Gas-phase LLDPE/HDPE swing process | PE producers | Licence |
| Hyperzone | Next-generation HDPE technology (first plant La Porte 2019) | PE producers | Licence (prospective) |
| Avant catalysts (Avant Z, Avant C, Avant M) | Ziegler-Natta, chromium, metallocene catalyst families; Edison NJ, Ferrara, Frankfurt, Ludwigshafen production | LYB, JVs, licensees | Long-term catalyst supply (~20% internal) |
| MoReTec | Proprietary catalytic chemical-recycling process | Future licensees; MoReTec-1 own plant | Prospective licensing |
| Services | Project assistance, start-up support, training, ongoing technical support, marketing services | Licensees | Fees bundled with licence |
Financial Narrative
Income statement — as reported (FY2021–FY2023 include Refining; FY2024–FY2025 continuing operations, restated)
Sources: FY2021–FY2025 10-Ks and Q4 earnings releases.
Notes: FY2021–FY2023 EBITDA = total segment EBITDA plus "Other" from FY2023 10-K segment reconciliation. Net interest FY2021–FY2023 = interest expense less interest income per same reconciliation. FY2022 DPS includes the USD 5.20 special dividend paid June 2022. FY2021 and FY2022 weighted diluted share counts are approximate as recalled from 10-Ks (verify). FY2023 adjusted EPS of USD 8.65 per Q4 2023 call. FY2024–FY2025 figures per 30 Jan 2026 release.
Margins
Revenue CAGR FY2021–FY2025: −10.1% (as reported; distorted by removal of Refining from FY2024 onward). On a continuing basis FY2024→FY2025 revenue fell 9.7%: price −8%, volume −4%, FX +2% (FY2025 10-K).
Balance sheet (31 December)
Sources: FY2025 Annual Report, 10-K/10-Q balance sheets, 2025 prospectus supplement; cash for FY2021–FY2024 as reported in prior 10-Ks.
Notes: FY2025 current liabilities derived from total liabilities (USD 23.80B) less long-term liabilities (USD 17.67B) per aggregator; verify against 10-K. Lease liabilities (~USD 1.3B long-term) excluded from debt. At 30 Jun 2026: long-term debt USD 11,215M, current maturities USD 1,461M, short-term debt USD 234M, cash USD 2,630M → net financial debt ≈ USD 10.3B (derived).
Cash flow
Notes: FY2024 and FY2025 capex shown rounded to the USD 0.1B level disclosed in earnings releases ("USD 1.9 billion" for FY2025); FY2024 capex is approximate (verify against FY2024 10-K). FY2025 dividends + buybacks = USD 1,965M (Table 7, Q4 2025 release). FY2025 shareholder returns exceeded FCF by ~USD 1.6B, funded by balance-sheet cash and USD 1.99B of new bonds — the root cause of the February 2026 dividend reset.
Interim 2026 performance
Q1 2026 revenue derived from Q2 2026 10-Q (Q2 revenue up USD 1,980M or 28% vs Q1). TTM to Q2 2026 (derived): revenue ≈ USD 31.2B; adjusted EBITDA ≈ USD 4.0B; adjusted EPS ≈ USD 5.54; GAAP net loss ≈ USD 0.35B.
Commentary on trends, inflections and drivers
2021–2022 (super-cycle peak). Post-COVID restocking, freight disruption and high crude-to-gas ratios produced record EBITDA (~USD 8.7B in 2021) and ROE near 50%. Management used the windfall for debt reduction (USD 3.9B repaid in 2021), buybacks and a USD 5.20 special dividend in 2022.
2023–2025 (long trough). A ~20–25% increase in global ethylene/PE capacity over four years (largely China and the U.S. Gulf), weak European demand, high European energy costs and, in 2025, tariffs and trade disruption compressed margins. Reported EBITDA fell from USD 4.5B (2023) to USD 1.1B (2025). Three successive waves of impairments (USD 518M in 2023, USD 949M in 2024, USD 1,251M in 2025 per cash-flow statement) wrote down European assets and APS goodwill. Free cash flow fell to ~USD 0.4B in 2025 while the company still returned ~USD 2.0B, raising leverage to ~3.7x adjusted EBITDA — "elevated for a cyclical company" in management's own framing on the Q4 call.
2026 (exogenous inflection). Geopolitical instability — specifically the Middle East conflict that damaged regional production and disrupted logistics — tightened global polymer and co-product supply. North American ethane-based producers, already at the bottom of the global cost curve, captured widened spreads; LYB ran North American assets around 85–90%. Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA of USD 2.13B was almost triple the prior-year quarter. The quality of this rebound is questionable from a durability standpoint: it is supply-shock driven, partially offset by unplanned outages (Bayport PO/TBA, La Porte acetyls) and planned Clinton downtime.
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Segment Overview
| Segment | Contents | Key products |
|---|---|---|
Olefins & Polyolefins – Americas (O&P-Americas) | U.S. Gulf Coast and Midwest crackers and polymer plants; 50% Louisiana JV; Mexican PP JV (Indelpro) | Ethylene, propylene, butadiene, benzene, HDPE, LDPE, LLDPE, PP, Catalloy |
Olefins & Polyolefins – Europe, Asia, International (O&P-EAI) | Wesseling, Moerdijk, Ferrara, Frankfurt, Knapsack (post-divestiture); JVs in Saudi Arabia, China, Poland, South Korea, Thailand; Circular & Low Carbon Solutions (CLCS) activity | Ethylene, propylene, PE, PP, Catalloy, polybutene-1, CirculenRecover/Revive/Renew polymers |
Intermediates & Derivatives (I&D) | Channelview, Bayport, La Porte; Botlek, Fos-sur-Mer; Covestro PO JVs; Chinese PO/SM JVs | PO, propylene glycol, glycol ethers, BDO, TBA, MTBE, ETBE, high-purity isobutylene, SM, methanol, GAA, VAM |
Advanced Polymer Solutions (APS) | Compounding sites globally (legacy A. Schulman); JVs in Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Thailand | PP compounds, engineered plastics, masterbatches, engineered composites, performance colours |
Technology | Process licensing and catalyst manufacture; R&D | Spheripol, Spherizone, Hostalen ACP, Lupotech, Hyperzone, Avant catalysts; MoReTec licensing (prospective) |
Effective Details
| Effective | Change |
|---|---|
1 Jan 2023 | Catalloy and polybutene-1 moved from APS back into O&P-Americas and O&P-EAI |
| 2,024 | EO&D business (I&D) sold to INEOS; ethylene oxide/glycol removed from I&D description |
Q1 2025 | Refining segment reclassified as discontinued operation; prior periods restated |
Sep 2025 | Specialty powders removed from APS (sold) |
Q2 2026 | Four European O&P sites removed from O&P-EAI (sold to AEQUITA); "held for sale" at YE2025 (USD 757M assets held for sale) |
Segment revenue (USD Mn)
| Segment revenue (USD Mn) | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
O&P-Americas | 11,533 | 9,801 |
O&P-EAI | 10,867 | 10,227 |
I&D | 10,424 | 9,069 |
APS | 3,634 | 3,472 |
Technology | 671 | 549 |
Eliminations/Other (derived) | -3,735 | -2,965 |
Total consolidated revenue (continuing) | 33,394 | 30,153 |
Segment Revenue
| Segment | FY2025 YoY growth % | FY2025 share of gross segment revenue % | FY2024 share % |
|---|---|---|---|
O&P-Americas | -15.0 | 29.6 | 31.1 |
O&P-EAI | -5.9 | 30.9 | 29.3 |
I&D | -13.0 | 27.4 | 28.1 |
APS | -4.5 | 10.5 | 9.8 |
Technology | -18.2 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
Segment EBITDA (USD Mn)
| Segment EBITDA (USD Mn) | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
O&P-Americas | 2,303 | 2,445 | 1,144 |
O&P-EAI | -9 | -991 | -457 |
I&D | 1,679 | 1,664 | 878 |
APS | -162 | 54 | -651 |
Technology | 375 | 379 | 180 |
Other | -56 | -35 | -29 |
Total EBITDA (continuing) | 4,130 | 3,516 | 1,065 |
Segment operating income (USD Mn)
| Segment operating income (USD Mn) | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
O&P-Americas | 1,805 | 441 |
O&P-EAI | -1,008 | -684 |
I&D | 951 | 428 |
APS | -48 | -743 |
Technology | 338 | 137 |
Segment EBITDA margin %
| Segment EBITDA margin % | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
O&P-Americas | 21.2 | 11.7 |
O&P-EAI | -9.1 | -4.5 |
I&D | 16.0 | 9.7 |
APS | 1.5 | -18.8 |
Technology | 56.5 | 32.8 |
Income Statement and Per-Share Data
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (USD Mn) | 46,173 | 50,451 | 41,107 | 33,394 | 30,153 |
Revenue as originally reported incl. Refining (USD Mn) | 46,173 | 50,451 | 41,107 | 40,302 | — |
Cost of sales, continuing (USD Mn) | — | — | 28,435 | 28,750 | 27,576 |
Gross profit, continuing (USD Mn, derived) | — | — | — | 4,644 | 2,577 |
Operating income, continuing (USD Mn, derived from 10-K % changes) | — | — | 2,723 | 1,916 | -422 |
EBITDA reported (USD Mn) | 8,689 | 6,301 | 4,509 | 3,460 | 1,126 |
EBITDA excl. identified items (USD Mn) | — | — | 5,200 | 4,185 | 2,543 |
Depreciation & amortization (USD Mn) | 1,393 | 1,267 | 1,534 | 1,522 | 1,390 |
Interest expense, net (USD Mn) | 510 | 258 | 348 | 331 | 390 |
Pre-tax income from continuing ops (USD Mn) | 6,786 | 4,776 | 2,627 | — | — |
Income tax provision (USD Mn) | — | — | — | 240 | 84 |
Net income (loss) (USD Mn) | 5,617 | 3,889 | 2,121 | 1,367 | -738 |
Net income excl. identified items (USD Mn) | — | 4,102 | 2,838 | 2,038 | 563 |
Diluted EPS (USD) | 16.75 | 11.81 | 6.46 | 4.15 | -2.34 |
Diluted EPS excl. identified items (USD) | — | — | 8.65 | 6.22 | 1.70 |
Dividends declared per share (USD) | 4.44 | 9.90 | 4.94 | 5.27 | 5.45 |
Weighted avg diluted shares (M) | 335 | 329 | 326 | 326 | 322 |
Margin metric (%)
| Margin metric (%) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin (continuing) | — | — | — | 13.9 | 8.5 |
Operating margin (continuing, derived) | — | — | — | 5.7 | -1.4 |
EBITDA margin (reported) | 18.8 | 12.5 | 11.0 | 10.4 | 3.7 |
EBITDA margin (excl. identified items) | — | — | 12.6 | 12.5 | 8.4 |
Net margin | 12.2 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 4.1 | -2.4 |
Balance Sheet
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total assets (USD Mn) | 36,742 | 36,365 | 37,000 | 35,746 | 34,003 |
Cash & cash equivalents incl. restricted (USD Mn) | 1,481 | 2,151 | 3,390 | 3,384 | 3,449 |
Total current assets (USD Mn) | 12,217 | 11,845 | 13,152 | 12,266 | 10,868 |
Total current liabilities (USD Mn) | — | 6,760 | 7,150 | 6,705 | 6,133 |
Working capital (USD Mn, derived) | — | 5,085 | 6,002 | 5,561 | 4,735 |
Short-term debt (USD Mn) | 362 | 349 | 117 | 119 | 226 |
Current maturities of long-term debt (USD Mn) | 6 | 432 | 782 | 498 | 588 |
Long-term debt (USD Mn) | 11,246 | 10,540 | 10,333 | 10,532 | 12,124 |
Total financial debt excl. leases (USD Mn, derived) | 11,614 | 11,321 | 11,232 | 11,149 | 12,938 |
Net debt (USD Mn, derived) | 10,133 | 9,170 | 7,842 | 7,765 | 9,489 |
Total equity (USD Mn) | 11,872 | 12,629 | 12,944 | 12,474 | 10,093 |
Goodwill (USD Mn) | 1,875 | 1,827 | 1,647 | — | — |
Intangible assets, net (USD Mn) | 695 | 662 | 641 | 577 | 450 |
Equity investments (USD Mn) | 4,786 | 4,295 | 3,907 | 4,121 | 3,963 |
Cash Flow and Margin Analysis (%)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating cash flow (USD Mn) | 7,695 | 6,119 | 4,942 | 3,819 | 2,262 |
Capital expenditures (USD Mn) | 1,959 | 1,890 | 1,531 | 1,800 | 1,900 |
Free cash flow (USD Mn, OCF − capex) | 5,736 | 4,229 | 3,411 | 2,019 | 362 |
Dividends paid (USD Mn) | — | — | — | — | 1,764 |
Share repurchases (USD Mn) | — | — | — | — | 201 |
Issuance of long-term debt (USD Mn) | 0 | 0 | 500 | 744 | 1,990 |
Repayment of long-term debt (USD Mn) | 3,925 | 0 | 425 | 776 | 492 |
Cash conversion (OCF / adj. EBITDA, company-defined) (%) | — | — | 98 | — | 95 |
Returns & Leverage Ratios (%) and Financial Ratios (x)
| Ratio | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ROE (net income / year-end equity, %) | 47.3 | 30.8 | 16.4 | 11.0 | -7.3 |
ROA (net income / year-end assets, %) | 15.3 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 3.8 | -2.2 |
ROIC (company-defined, %) | — | — | 11 | — | — |
Current ratio (x) | — | 1.75 | 1.84 | 1.83 | 1.77 |
Debt / equity (x) | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.87 | 0.89 | 1.28 |
Net debt / reported EBITDA (x) | 1.17 | 1.46 | 1.74 | 2.24 | 8.43 |
Net debt / EBITDA excl. identified items (x) | — | — | 1.51 | 1.86 | 3.73 |
EBITDA / net interest (x) | 17.0 | 24.4 | 13.0 | 10.5 | 2.9 |
Asset turnover (revenue / year-end assets, x) | 1.26 | 1.39 | 1.11 | 0.93 | 0.89 |
Income Statement and Per-Share Data (Quarterly)
| Metric (USD Mn unless stated) | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 7,658 | 7,727 | 7,091 | 7,197 | 9,177 |
Net income (loss) | 115 | -890 | -140 | 125 | 559 |
Diluted EPS (USD) | — | -2.77 | -0.45 | 0.38 | 1.71 |
Adj. diluted EPS (USD) | — | 1.01 | -0.26 | 0.49 | 4.30 |
EBITDA reported | 606 | -480 | 345 | 568 | 1,252 |
EBITDA excl. identified items | 715 | 835 | 417 | 615 | 2,127 |
Operating cash flow | — | — | — | -269 | 752 |
Revenue by country (USD Mn)
| Revenue by country (USD Mn) | 9M 2025 | TTM to Q1 2026 |
|---|---|---|
United States | 8,324 | 10,930 |
Germany | 1,762 | 2,170 |
China | 1,412 | 1,640 |
Mexico | — | 1,480 |
Italy | — | 1,310 |
France | — | 1,190 |
Other disclosed / non-reportable | — | 10,950 |
Long-lived assets by country (USD Mn)
| Long-lived assets by country (USD Mn) | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
United States | 14,456 | 14,551 |
Germany | 1,691 | 2,012 |
Italy | 399 | 496 |
Mexico | 257 | 226 |
France | 171 | 184 |
China | 124 | 120 |
Other | 1,586 | 1,543 |
Share Price History
| Date | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|
30 Jun 2025 | 57.86 | FY2025 10-K cover |
Mid-Dec 2025 | 43.34 | MarketScreener (YTD 2025 ≈ −42%) |
2 Mar 2026 | ~57.5 | Exchange FTD data via aggregator |
13 Mar 2026 | ~74.3 | Same |
3 Apr 2026 | 79.93 | Robinhood (52-wk range 41.58–83.94) |
Late Aug–Sep 2026 | ~63.5–68.1 | Earnings Whispers / equibles quotes |
Valuation Multiples
| Multiple | LYB (derived) | Basis |
|---|---|---|
Market cap (USD Bn) | ~21.0 | 323M × USD 65 |
Enterprise value (USD Bn) | ~31.3 |
|
EV / TTM adj. EBITDA | ~7.8x | TTM adj. EBITDA ~USD 4.0B |
EV / TTM sales | ~1.0x | TTM revenue ~USD 31.2B |
P/E (TTM adj. EPS ~USD 5.54) | ~11.7x | GAAP TTM EPS negative |
P/E (FY2026 consensus EPS ~USD 8.73, May 2026) | ~7.4x | Barchart-reported consensus; likely revised since |
P/B | ~2.0x | Equity attributable ~USD 10.7B (30 Jun 2026) |
Dividend yield | ~4.2% | USD 2.76 annualised |
Dividend per share (USD)
| Dividend per share (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Regular dividends declared | 4.44 | 4.70 | 4.94 | 5.27 | 5.45 |
Special dividend | 0 | 5.20 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total | 4.44 | 9.90 | 4.94 | 5.27 | 5.45 |
Note Details
| Note | Coupon | Maturity | Carrying value (USD Mn) |
|---|---|---|---|
USD 500M notes | 2.25% | 2030 | 481 |
USD notes (residual) | 3.375% | 2030 | 142 |
USD 500M notes (new 2025) | 5.125% | 2031 | 495 |
EUR 500M notes | 1.625% | 2031 | 577 |
USD 500M notes | 5.625% | 2033 | 496 |
USD 750M notes | 5.5% | 2034 | 739 |
USD 500M notes (new 2025) | 6.15% | 2035 | 494 |
USD 1,000M notes (new 2025) | 5.875% | 2036 | 984 |
USD 750M notes | 3.375% | 2040 | 743 |
USD 750M notes | 5.25% | 2043 | 727 |
USD 500M notes | 3.8% | 2060 | 487 |
Total long-term debt incl. current portion | — | — | 12,712 |
Analyst Conclusions
Management guidance (latest)
-
FY2026 capex USD 1.2B; Cash Improvement Plan to deliver an additional USD 500M in 2026 (cumulative USD 1.3B).
-
VEP: USD 1.5B recurring EBITDA by 2028.
-
Q2 2026 commentary: dynamic, supply-constrained markets across all segments; Bayport exited Q2 at full rates, supporting H2 I&D volumes; Clinton downtime to reduce H2 polyolefin volumes; European spreads expected to more than offset divested volumes.
-
Capital allocation: protect investment-grade balance sheet first; 70% of FCF to shareholders through the cycle.
Consensus expectations
FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus was ~USD 8.73 in May 2026 (≈+413% YoY), implying H2 2026 adjusted EPS of roughly USD 3.9 given H1 adjusted EPS of USD 4.79; Q3 2026 consensus ~USD 2.46 suggests the Street already expects a sequential fade from Q2's USD 4.30.
Bull case
-
Structural European relief + cyclical upswing: with ~25% of O&P-EAI capacity sold and Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA of USD 2.13B, mid-cycle EBITDA could reset above the USD 4.2B of FY2024 even with modest margin retention.
-
Self-help compounding: USD 1.3B CIP and USD 1.5B VEP targets, plus capex cut to USD 1.2B, could lift FCF to well above the USD 0.36B of FY2025, enabling deleveraging and later dividend restoration.
-
Valuation: at ~7.8x TTM adjusted EBITDA and ~2x book, with a ~4% yield, the stock still discounts a trough-like earnings base relative to the 2021–2023 run-rate.
Bear case
-
Shock-driven, not structural: 2026 margins depend on Middle East supply disruption; normalisation plus continued Chinese capacity additions could return EBITDA toward the USD 2.5B adjusted level of FY2025.
-
Leverage and refinancing: total financial debt ~USD 12.9B, current maturities USD 1.46B (Jun 2026), and net debt/adj. EBITDA 3.7x at YE2025 constrain flexibility; any rating action would raise funding costs.
-
Execution and reliability: serial outages (Bayport, La Porte, Clinton), USD 2.3B of impairments over 2024–2025 and the APS track record question management's capital allocation.
Catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)
-
Q3 2026 results (30 Oct 2026) and Q4/FY2026 results (late Jan 2027): sustainability of polymer spreads; FY2027 capex guide.
-
Middle East conflict trajectory and restart of damaged regional capacity.
-
Credit agency reviews; refinancing of 2026–2027 maturities.
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Dividend decisions (Nov 2026, Feb 2027) — any move back toward a higher payout.
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Flex-2 and MoReTec-2 FID timing; MoReTec-1 commissioning (2027).
-
AEQUITA post-closing covenants and any residual liabilities.
-
Kansas litigation developments; EU CBAM scope decisions for polymers.
-
Q3 working-capital release following Q1/Q2 builds.
Analyst verdict
LyondellBasell enters Q4 2026 as a company that has done most of the hard, unglamorous work a cyclical commodity producer should do in a downturn — but has been rescued, for now, by an event it did not control. Over 2025 and early 2026 management exited refining, closed or sold roughly a quarter of its European olefins capacity, cut headcount by ~7%, slashed capex from USD 1.9B to USD 1.2B, overdelivered on its Cash Improvement Plan and, crucially, accepted reality on the dividend. These actions structurally lower the earnings floor and remove the worst-returning assets from the portfolio. The core franchise — NGL-advantaged U.S. crackers, world-scale PP and PO positions, unrivalled oxyfuels leadership and a genuinely valuable licensing business — remains intact.
The 2026 earnings surge, however, should be read primarily as a supply shock. Q2 adjusted EPS of USD 4.30 is not a run-rate, and the Street's Q3 estimate already embeds a fade. The investment debate therefore turns on the "post-shock" floor: if self-help plus European portfolio surgery can hold adjusted EBITDA at USD 3.5–4.0B through a normalised 2027, the balance sheet de-levers quickly and the current ~7.8x EV/EBITDA looks undemanding. If margins revert toward 2025 conditions, leverage climbs back toward 3–4x and the reduced dividend may still be generous relative to FCF.
On balance, the risk/reward is neutral-to-constructive: the downside has been structurally reduced by portfolio and cost actions, but upside from here requires evidence that 2026 margins are more than transitory and that the company can run its assets reliably. Key proof points are H2 2026 free cash flow, the 2027 capex guide, any credit-rating action, and the timing of growth FIDs. Investors should treat LYB as a high-beta cyclical recovery position sized for volatility, not as the defensive income vehicle it was marketed as before February 2026.
Data-quality appendix
| Item | Status |
|---|---|
| FY2024–FY2025 income statement, EBITDA, OCF, debt, segment data | Verified from FY2025 10-K/ARS and Q4 2025 release |
| Q1/Q2 2026 results, AEQUITA completion, dividend cut | Verified from 2026 8-Ks/10-Q and press releases |
| FY2021–FY2023 revenue, NI, EPS, EBITDA, OCF, balance sheet | From prior 10-Ks/releases (as reported incl. Refining); some items recalled — verify |
| FY2024 capex, FY2021–FY2022 share counts, cash balances FY2021–FY2024 | Approximate / recalled — verify |
| Country revenue | Partial (9M 2025, TTM aggregator) — full-year by country NA |
| Executive compensation, board roster, top-10 holders, credit ratings, ESG ratings | — |
| Market data (price, consensus) | Aggregator quotes, late Aug–Sep 2026; verify live |
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View Subscription PlansExecutive Leadership
Executive Leadership Team
| Name | Age | Title | In role since | Prior roles |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Peter Vanacker | 59 | Chief Executive Officer | May 2022 | President & CEO, Neste (2018–2022); CEO & MD, CABB Group (2015–2018); earlier Bayer/Covestro roles |
Agustin Izquierdo | 49 | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | Mar 2025 | SVP O&P Americas & Refining (2024–25); VP Finance & Strategy I&D (2022–24); BASF Catalysts division finance/digital (2019–22) |
Kim Foley | 59 | EVP, Global Olefins & Polyolefins and Refining | Aug 2024 | EVP I&D & Refining (2022–24); SVP HSE, Engineering & Turnarounds |
Aaron Ledet | 51 | EVP, Intermediates & Derivatives and Supply Chain | Aug 2024 | SVP O&P Americas (2022–24); various olefins/APS roles |
Torkel Rhenman | 62 | EVP, Advanced Polymer Solutions | Oct 2022 | EVP I&D and Refining (2020–22) |
Yvonne van der Laan | 54 | EVP, Circular & Low Carbon Solutions | Oct 2022 | Senior Director Global Circularity; Port of Rotterdam VP (2016–19) |
James Seward | 58 | EVP & Chief Innovation Officer | Oct 2022 | SVP R&D, Technology & Sustainability |
Jeffrey Kaplan | 57 | EVP, General Counsel and Procurement | Mar 2024 (CLO since 2015) | EVP Legal & Public Affairs / CLO |
Dale Friedrichs | 62 | EVP, Operational Excellence and HSE | Oct 2022 | SVP HR & Global Projects |
Trisha Conley | 53 | EVP, People and Culture | Feb 2023 | SVP People, Renewable Energy Group; BP HR leadership |
Tracey Campbell | 59 | EVP, Sustainability and Corporate Affairs | Oct 2022 | VP Public Affairs; Director Polyolefins APAC |
David Kinney | — | Head of Investor Relations | — | — |
Board & Management Changes
| Date | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|
May 2022 | Peter Vanacker succeeds Bob Patel as CEO | Strategy reset |
Oct 2022 | New executive structure (CLCS, Innovation, Op Ex roles created) | Three-pillar strategy |
Mar 2024 | Foley to Global O&P; Ledet to I&D; Kaplan adds Procurement | Reorganisation |
Aug 2024 | Supply chain moved to Ledet; Foley adds Refining | Simplification |
Mar 2025 | Agustin Izquierdo becomes CFO, succeeding Michael McMurray (retirement) | Internal succession |
Competitive Landscape
Competitors by Segment
| Segment | Competitors |
|---|---|
O&P-Americas (ethylene/PE/PP) | Dow; ExxonMobil Chemical; Chevron Phillips Chemical; Westlake; Formosa Plastics USA; INEOS Olefins & Polymers USA; Shell Chemicals (Monaca); Braskem (U.S. PP, Mexico); Nova Chemicals; TotalEnergies/Borealis (Baystar) |
O&P-EAI | SABIC (incl. European assets); INEOS; Borealis; TotalEnergies; ExxonMobil; Dow Europe; Sinopec, PetroChina and Chinese private producers (Asia); Middle East producers (exports into Europe) |
I&D — PO & derivatives | Dow; Shell (SMPO); Huntsman (PO/MTBE, Port Neches); BASF; Sumitomo Chemical; Wanhua; Chinese HPPO producers |
I&D — oxyfuels | Huntsman; Evonik; SABIC; Middle East and Asian MTBE producers; new octane capacity (alkylate/isomerate) |
I&D — acetyls | Celanese; Eastman; INEOS Acetyls; Chinese producers |
APS | Avient; Borealis/Borouge compounds; SABIC; Mitsui Chemicals; Celanese engineered materials; regional compounders |
Technology (licensing) | Grace (Unipol; now Koch-owned W.R. Grace); Univation (Dow/ExxonMobil); INEOS Technologies (Innovene); Chevron Phillips (loop slurry); Borealis (Borstar); Sinopec technologies; Mitsui (Hypol) |
Peer Comparison FY2024
| Metric | LyondellBasell | Dow | Westlake |
|---|---|---|---|
Revenue FY2024 (USD Mn) | 40,302 | 42,964 | 12,142 |
Revenue growth FY2024 YoY (%) | -2.0 | -3.7 | -3.2 |
EBITDA margin FY2024 (%) | 10.4 | — | — |
R&D intensity (%) | 0.3 | — | — |
