Methanex Corporation Overview
Methanex is the world's largest producer and supplier of methanol, a liquid commodity chemical used as a building block for formaldehyde, acetic acid, olefins, fuel additives and, increasingly, low-emission marine and vehicle fuel. Following the June 2025 acquisition of OCI Global's international methanol business, the company operates roughly 10.4 million tonnes per year of equity methanol capacity (plus 0.3 Mt of ammonia) across the United States, Canada, Chile, Egypt, New Zealand and Trinidad and Tobago, of which about 6.5 Mt sits in North America on advantaged shale gas. Its moat is not technology but logistics: a majority-owned tanker fleet of roughly 30 vessels, terminals in all major import regions and published regional reference prices that anchor customer contracts. In 2025 it sold 9.5 Mt, roughly one-fifth of the internationally traded market. The investment case is a high-beta, gas-spread commodity exposure, now pivoting from capacity growth to deleveraging and portfolio high-grading as legacy gas-constrained sites (Trinidad, New Zealand) are idled.
What the company does
Methanex produces methanol from natural gas at plants it owns or jointly owns, buys additional methanol from third parties under offtake contracts and on the spot market, sells methanol on a commission basis for its joint-venture partners in Egypt, and delivers product to customers through an integrated global supply chain of ocean tankers (Waterfront Shipping), in-region terminals and storage. Since 27 June 2025 it also produces and sells ammonia from the Beaumont, Texas facility acquired from OCI. Revenue is almost entirely product revenue: per the 2025 Annual MD&A, revenue "includes sales of ammonia and other products, in addition to sales of methanol". There is no meaningful service, subscription or licensing revenue; third-party backhaul cargoes carried by Waterfront Shipping generate minor logistics offsets that are netted within costs.
Company's own description (paraphrased from the 2025 Annual Report)
The 2025 Annual Report describes Methanex as the world's largest producer and supplier of methanol serving Asia Pacific, North America, Europe and South America, with production sites in the US, Chile, Egypt, New Zealand, Trinidad and Tobago and Canada. Its stated primary objective is to create value through leadership in the global production, marketing and delivery of methanol, executed through a three-part strategy of leadership, low cost and operational excellence, underpinned by the chemical industry's Responsible Care ethic.
Revenue model
| Revenue stream | Mechanism | FY2025 scale (Annual MD&A) |
|---|---|---|
| Methanex-produced methanol | Sold under contracts priced off Methanex monthly/quarterly regional posted prices less negotiated discounts | 7,512 kt sold |
| Purchased methanol (resale) | Bought via offtake contracts and spot to balance regional supply; margin thinner than produced product | 1,463 kt sold |
| Commission sales | Marketing of JV partners' share (Egypt 50%; Atlas 36.9% when running) for a commission | 540 kt sold |
| Ammonia | Beaumont production sold mainly to North American customers | 182 kt produced (H2 2025 only) |
| Total methanol sales volume | — | 9,515 kt; average realized price US$361/t |
Product-vs-service mix: effectively ~100% product revenue. The company does not disclose a separate ammonia revenue line in the documents reviewed; its contribution to Adjusted EBITDA rose by US$33M in FY2025 versus FY2024 (Annual MD&A, EBITDA bridge).
Value-chain position
Methanex sits at the upstream/midstream chemical layer: natural gas (purchased; Methanex does not own gas reserves) → methanol synthesis → ocean and terminal logistics → industrial customers. Feedstock exposure is managed in two ways: in North America it targets fixed-price contracts and financial hedges for about 50% of near-term gas needs; outside North America, gas contracts in Chile, Trinidad, Egypt and New Zealand contain a base price plus a component linked to methanol prices, which the company says keeps these plants competitive through the cycle (2025 Annual MD&A, "Low Cost"). Roughly one-third of production is covered by such methanol-linked gas contracts (Q2 2026 MD&A).
Customers and end-markets
| Demand category | Share of global demand (2025, company estimate) | Key applications |
|---|---|---|
| Traditional chemical | ~50% | Formaldehyde, acetic acid, other chemical derivatives |
| Energy-related | >30% | MTBE, gasoline blending, DME, biodiesel, marine fuel, thermal (China boilers/kilns >7 Mt/yr), vehicle fuel (China >1.3 Mt/yr) |
| Methanol-to-olefins (MTO) | <20% | Light olefins for packaging, textiles, plastics, automotive |
Customers are chemical and petrochemical producers (formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE, MMA, silicones, solvents), olefins producers (MTO plants in China), fuel blenders, biodiesel makers and, emergingly, ship operators using methanol as marine fuel. Per the 2025 Annual MD&A, global demand splits roughly as follows:
Independent characterisation
Methanex is best understood as a commodity spread business with a logistics franchise. Earnings are dominated by the gap between the methanol price it realises (FY2025 average realized price US$361/t; Q2 2026 US$529/t) and its delivered cash cost, of which gas and freight are the largest components. Its genuine differentiation lies in (i) security-of-supply contracting enabled by a dedicated fleet and terminals, (ii) the pricing role of Methanex posted prices, and (iii) portfolio optionality — it can source from any of six countries or buy third-party product. The OCI deal shifted the asset base decisively toward US Gulf Coast gas, reducing feedstock risk but increasing exposure to Henry Hub and to US–China trade friction (the 2025 MD&A notes an additional 35% Chinese duty on US-origin methanol).
Strategy
Stated strategy (themes from the 2025 Annual Report)
-
Leadership — be the leading global producer and supplier; scale (9.5 Mt sold, ~20% of traded volume) enables posted-price leadership, global supply security, product exchanges and purchased-methanol flexibility.
-
Low cost — manage gas cost through North American hedging (~50% of near-term needs) and methanol-linked gas contracts elsewhere; optimise shipping, backhaul and geographic swaps.
-
Operational excellence — reliability, Responsible Care, best-in-class safety (the company reports its best two-year safety record in 2024–2025) and financial discipline.
Strategic initiatives (last 24 months)
| Initiative | Date | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| OCI methanol acquisition | Announced 8 Sep 2024; closed 27 Jun 2025 | ~US$2.05B; adds ~2.6 Mt of North American methanol capacity (Methanex share incl. 50% Natgasoline) plus ammonia | Integration complete into internal controls Q2 2026 |
| Synergy capture | 2025–2026 | ~US$30M of run-rate synergies assumed in acquisition case (OCI presentation) | In progress; realisation not separately reported |
| Portfolio high-grading | 2024–2027 | Atlas idled (2024), Titan idled (Jul 2026), New Zealand exit (from Q1 2027) | Executing |
| Deleveraging | 2025–2026 | Term Loan A (US$550M drawn) fully repaid by Q2 2026; US$300M partial redemption of 2027 notes on 19 Oct 2026 | On track |
| Lower leverage target | Late 2025 | 2.0–2.5x adjusted debt / Adjusted EBITDA at a US$350/t mid-cycle price | Board-endorsed |
| Natgasoline refinancing | Aug 2026 | US$290.95M tax-exempt bonds at 4.75%, final maturity 2046, deferring amortisation | Completed (expected close ~28 Aug 2026) |
| Credit facility resizing | Q2 2026 | Revolver reduced from US$600M to US$400M | Completed |
| Low-carbon methanol | Ongoing | SVP Low Carbon Solutions role; acquired OCI low-carbon production/marketing platform; marine fuel market development | Volumes not disclosed |
| Incentive realignment | 2,026 | Free cash flow made the sole corporate financial STI metric | In effect |
Medium-term targets and guidance
| Item | Guidance / target | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 methanol production | ~9.0 Mt (Methanex interest) | Q2 2026 MD&A (reaffirmed) |
| 2026 ammonia production | ~0.3 Mt | Q2 2026 MD&A |
| Jul–Aug 2026 realized price | US$460–485/t | Q2 2026 MD&A |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Lower than Q2 2026 | Q2 2026 MD&A |
| Leverage | 2.0–2.5x at US$350/t | Company presentations |
| Capital allocation | Sustaining capex → deleveraging → dividend → opportunistic buybacks once leverage targets met | April 2026 corporate presentation; Q2 2026 call |
| Logistics headwind | US$30–40M per quarter vs. planned run-rate, ~half in Q2, remainder in Q3 2026 | Q2 2026 earnings call |
No formal multi-year revenue or EBITDA growth targets are published; the company frames earnings capacity through price sensitivities instead.
Products & Services
Methanex's catalogue is narrow by design. Each offering is listed individually below.
No R&D-led proprietary products, licensed technologies or software platforms were identified.
Product Portfolio
| # | Product / service | Description & specifications | Target customers | Launch / latest | Pricing model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Methanol (conventional, natural-gas based) | Clear, biodegradable liquid (CH3OH); supplied to standard chemical-grade specifications from all production sites | Formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE, MMA, silicones, solvent and MTO producers | Core product since inception | Contracts referenced to Methanex non-discounted regional posted prices (North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, China) less discounts |
| 2 | Methanex regional posted (reference) prices | Published monthly (quarterly in Europe); used as the contractual basis across the industry. July 2026: North America US$1,480/t; Europe US$1,047/t (€915 for Q3); Asia Pacific US$620/t; China US$525/t (Q2 2026 MD&A) | Customers and market participants | Ongoing | Not sold; a market-making instrument |
| 3 | Low-carbon methanol (incl. ex-OCI "HyFuels" platform) | Methanol produced with lower lifecycle carbon intensity (e.g. bio-methanol, renewable natural gas inputs, mass-balance products). The acquired OCI business added a low-carbon methanol production and marketing platform | Shipping lines, fuel blenders, chemical customers with decarbonisation targets | Acquired 27 Jun 2025 | Premium to conventional; specific pricing not publicly disclosed |
| 4 | Methanol as marine fuel | Bunker supply of methanol for dual-fuel vessels; Waterfront operates methanol-fuelled tankers | Ship owners and operators | Ongoing; volumes not disclosed | — |
| 5 | Ammonia (Beaumont) | Anhydrous ammonia; 340 kt/yr capacity | Fertilizer, industrial and chemical buyers, predominantly North American | Acquired 27 Jun 2025 | Market-indexed; not disclosed |
| 6 | Purchased-methanol supply / trading | Third-party methanol bought via offtake and spot to balance regional supply (1.46 Mt sold in FY2025; ~0.6 Mt of 2026 purchase commitments at 31 Dec 2025) | All customer segments | Ongoing | Back-to-back to market pricing |
| 7 | Commission marketing services | Marketing of JV partners' share of Egypt (and Atlas when operating) output | JV partners | Ongoing | Commission (rate not disclosed) |
| 8 | Waterfront Shipping ocean freight | Dedicated methanol tanker fleet (~30 vessels, mostly long-term time charters); also carries third-party backhaul cargoes | Internal supply chain; third-party shippers on backhaul | Ongoing | Charter/backhaul freight rates (not disclosed) |
| 9 | Product stewardship & technical services | Safe-handling training, methanol fuel technical support, industry education under Responsible Care | Customers, logistics providers, regulators | Ongoing | Bundled; no separate charge |
“—” = not publicly disclosed.
Financial Narrative
Income statement and per-share data (chartable)
Source: 2025 Annual Report "2025 Financial Highlights" (five-year table). Margins are analyst calculations. Revenue CAGR FY2021–FY2025: −5.0% (analyst calculation).
FY2024–FY2025 income statement detail (chartable)
Source: 2025 Annual MD&A. Dividend per share reflects four quarterly payments of US$0.185 in both years (MD&A states a full year of US$0.185 quarterly dividends in each year).
Interim 2026 snapshot
Source: Q2 2026 MD&A quarterly data and quarterly history. Last-twelve-months (Q3 2025–Q2 2026): revenue US$4,265M; Adjusted EBITDA US$1,174M; net income attributable US$88M (analyst calculation). Q2 2026 statutory operating income was US$492M and H1 2026 operating income US$575M (Q2 2026 interim statements).
Balance sheet (chartable where complete)
Source: 2025 Annual Report highlights; net debt is analyst calculation (long-term debt less cash).
Sources: 2025 Annual MD&A (capitalisation and Adjusted debt tables); Q2 2026 interim statement of financial position. Debt split at 30 June 2026: current maturities of long-term debt US$15M; non-current US$2,386M; current lease obligations US$128M; non-current leases US$605M. Goodwill and intangibles: not presented as a separate line in the condensed balance sheet reviewed; not publicly disclosed in the documents examined.
Cash flow (chartable where complete)
Sources: 2025 Annual MD&A cash-flow summary; Q2 2026 interim cash-flow statement. No buybacks were made in FY2024, FY2025 or H1 2026.
Commentary on trends and drivers
FY2021–FY2023 — the down-cycle. FY2021 (Adjusted EBITDA US$1.11B) and FY2022 (US$932M) benefited from strong post-pandemic pricing (ARP ~US$393–397/t). By FY2023, ARP had fallen 16% to US$333/t; Adjusted EBITDA dropped to US$622M and net income to US$174M, while Geismar 3 construction spending pulled cash down from US$858M to US$458M and pushed net debt to capitalisation to 44%.
FY2024 — the reset. EBITDA recovered to US$764M despite flat revenue, helped by US$103M of New Zealand gas sale proceeds and a US$30M (Methanex share) Egypt insurance recovery, but held back by US$41M of Geismar 3 delay costs and a US$125M impairment. The cash pile rebuilt to US$892M ahead of the OCI deal, partly from new 2032 notes.
FY2025 — transformation year. Revenue fell 3.5% because the company deliberately shrank its purchased-methanol book (−2.0 Mt) as produced volume rose 23% to 7.8 Mt. That mix shift was worth US$183M of EBITDA; Adjusted EBITDA reached US$808M. However, statutory earnings were squeezed by higher D&A (+US$60M), finance costs (+US$87M, reflecting Term Loan A fees and the 2032 notes, and the end of capitalised interest on Geismar 3) and a US$71M impairment — net income attributable fell to US$80M. Operating cash flow of US$1.02B was flattered by a US$147M working-capital release as prices eased into year-end.
2026 — commodity windfall. The Middle East conflict that began in late February 2026 removed an estimated 15–20 Mt of internationally traded supply. Methanex's non-discounted posted price averaged US$1,007/t in Q2 2026 and its realized price US$529/t, producing record quarterly Adjusted EBITDA of US$577M and Adjusted EPS of US$3.87. Operating cash flow of US$439M in Q2 funded full repayment of Term Loan A (US$290M). Note the large gap between posted and realized prices: realized prices lag posted prices because of discounts, Chinese pricing, contract structures and FIFO inventory timing.
Inflection points to watch. (1) Realized prices are already normalising — management guided US$460–485/t for July–August 2026; (2) logistics costs are inflated by bunker prices and longer routes, a US$30–40M quarterly headwind (Q2 2026 call); (3) the portfolio shrinks as Titan (idled July 2026) and New Zealand (from Q1 2027) leave production, which reduces volume but also removes high-cost, gas-constrained tonnes.
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Entity / asset
| Entity / asset | Methanex interest | Accounting | Notes (2025 Annual MD&A; Q2 2026 MD&A) |
|---|---|---|---|
Geismar 1, 2, 3 (Louisiana) | 100% | Consolidated | 4.0 Mt/yr combined operating capacity |
Beaumont (Texas) methanol + ammonia | 100% | Consolidated | 910 kt methanol, 340 kt ammonia; acquired from OCI |
Natgasoline LLC (Texas) | 50% | Equity method | 1.7 Mt/yr plant (850 kt Methanex share); JV partner Consolidated Energy Limited |
Medicine Hat (Alberta) | 100% | Consolidated | 560 kt/yr |
Chile I & IV (Punta Arenas) | 100% | Consolidated | 1.7 Mt/yr |
Egypt (Damietta) | 50% economic; 100% marketing rights | Consolidated with NCI | 1.26 Mt/yr plant |
Titan (Trinidad) | 100% | Consolidated | 860 kt/yr; indefinitely idled July 2026 |
Atlas (Trinidad) | 63.1% | Equity method | Idle since Sep 2024; impaired Q2 2026 |
Motunui (New Zealand) | 100% | Consolidated | One plant operating (860 kt basis), second Motunui plant and Waitara Valley idle; full idling planned from Q1 2027 |
Waterfront Shipping | 60% | Consolidated with NCI | Largest methanol tanker fleet globally (~30 vessels, mostly time-chartered) |
Netherlands plant (ex-OCI) | 100% | Consolidated | Idle |
Revenue by Segment and Segment Margins & Growth (%)
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
Total revenue (USD Mn) | 3,723 | 3,720 | 3,589 |
Adjusted EBITDA (USD Mn) | 622 | 764 | 808 |
Adjusted EBITDA margin (%) | 16.7 | 20.5 | 22.5 |
Revenue YoY growth (%) | -13.6 | -0.1 | -3.5 |
Share of total revenue (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Operating Metrics (kt) and Revenue by Segment (%)
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
Methanex-produced methanol sold (kt) | 6,094 | 7,512 |
Purchased methanol sold (kt) | 3,471 | 1,463 |
Commission sales (kt) | 904 | 540 |
Total methanol sales (kt) | 10,469 | 9,515 |
Produced share of total sales (%) | 58.2 | 78.9 |
Income Statement and Per-Share Data
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (USD Mn) | 4,415 | 4,311 | 3,723 | 3,720 | 3,589 |
Adjusted EBITDA (USD Mn) | 1,108 | 932 | 622 | 764 | 808 |
Net income attributable to shareholders (USD Mn) | 482 | 354 | 174 | 164 | 80 |
Adjusted net income (USD Mn) | 460 | 343 | 153 | 252 | 148 |
Diluted EPS (USD) | 6.13 | 4.86 | 2.57 | 2.39 | 0.93 |
Adjusted EPS (USD) | 6.03 | 4.79 | 2.25 | 3.72 | 2.03 |
Adjusted EBITDA margin (%) | 25.1 | 21.6 | 16.7 | 20.5 | 22.5 |
Net margin, attributable (%) | 10.9 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.2 |
Average realized price (USD per t) | 393 | 397 | 333 | 355 | 361 |
Total sales volume (kt) | 11,184 | 10,774 | 11,169 | 10,469 | 9,515 |
Total production (kt) | 6,514 | 6,118 | 6,642 | 6,358 | 7,816 |
Per-Share Data and Income Statement
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
Basic EPS (USD) | 2.43 | 1.10 |
Cost of sales and operating expenses (USD Mn) | 3,009 | 2,680 |
Depreciation and amortization (USD Mn) | 386 | 446 |
Finance costs (USD Mn) | 133 | 220 |
Asset impairment charge, pre-tax (USD Mn) | 125 | 71 |
Income before tax (USD Mn) | 280 | 203 |
Income tax expense (USD Mn) | 30 | 58 |
Net income incl. NCI (USD Mn) | 250 | 145 |
New Zealand gas sale net proceeds (USD Mn) | 103 | 39 |
Dividends declared per share (USD) | 0.74 | 0.74 |
Income Statement and Share Price
| Metric (USD Mn unless stated) | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 797 | 927 | 969 | 974 | 1,395 |
Adjusted EBITDA | 183 | 191 | 186 | 220 | 577 |
Net income attributable | 64 | -7 | -89 | -14 | 198 |
Adjusted net income | 66 | 5 | -11 | 23 | 300 |
Average realized price (USD per t) | 374 | 345 | 331 | 351 | 529 |
Production (kt) | 1,621 | 2,212 | 2,364 | 2,391 | 2,213 |
Balance Sheet and Margin Analysis (%)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total assets (USD Mn) | 6,090 | 6,631 | 6,427 | 6,597 | 7,283 |
Cash and cash equivalents (USD Mn) | 932 | 858 | 458 | 892 | 425 |
Long-term debt incl. current portion (USD Mn) | 2,158 | 2,152 | 2,142 | 2,415 | 2,753 |
Net debt excl. leases (USD Mn) | 1,226 | 1,294 | 1,684 | 1,523 | 2,328 |
Net debt to capitalization (%) | 39 | 35 | 44 | 39 | 46 |
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| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | 30 Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
Lease obligations (USD Mn) | 818 | 755 | 733 |
Total debt + leases (USD Mn) | 3,233 | 3,508 | 3,133 |
Adjusted debt, Methanex share (USD Mn) | 2,885 | 3,706 | 3,324 |
Shareholders' equity (USD Mn) | 2,094 | 2,443 | 2,566 |
Non-controlling interests (USD Mn) | 288 | 283 | 311 |
Current assets (USD Mn) | — | 1,487 | 1,677 |
Current liabilities (USD Mn) | — | 722 | 808 |
Working capital (USD Mn) | — | 765 | 869 |
Property, plant & equipment (USD Mn) | — | 5,198 | 5,036 |
Key Financials
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash flow from operating activities (USD Mn) | 994 | 987 | 660 | 737 | 1,016 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | H1 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
Capex incl. Geismar 3 construction (USD Mn) | 174 | 99 | 38 |
Simple free cash flow, OCF less capex (USD Mn) | 563 | 917 | 534 |
Adjusted free cash flow, company definition (USD Mn) | — | — | 328 |
Dividends paid to Methanex shareholders (USD Mn) | 50 | 54 | 29 |
Share buybacks (USD Mn) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Distributions to non-controlling interests (USD Mn) | 41 | 69 | 35 |
Interest paid (USD Mn) | 169 | 198 | 101 |
Acquisition of OCI business, net of cash (USD Mn) | 0 | 1,260 | 0 |
Returns & Leverage Ratios (%) and Financial Ratios (x)
| Ratio | FY2024 | FY2025 | LTM Jun 2026 | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
ROE (attributable NI / avg. shareholders' equity) | not computed | 3.5% | 3.5% | Analyst calc |
ROA (attributable NI / avg. total assets) | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | Analyst calc |
Current ratio | — | 2.06x | 2.07x | Balance sheet |
Debt (incl. leases) / total equity | not computed | 1.29x | 1.09x | Analyst calc |
Adjusted debt / Adjusted EBITDA | 3.8x | 4.6x | 2.8x | Analyst calc from company measures |
Adjusted EBITDA / finance costs | 5.7x | 3.7x | ~5.5x | Analyst calc (LTM finance costs ≈ US$214M) |
Asset turnover (revenue / avg. assets) | 0.57x | 0.52x | ~0.59x | Analyst calc |
Cash conversion cycle | not computed | ~40 days | — | Analyst estimate: DSO ~47, DIO ~67, DPO ~74, using year-end balances and cost of sales |
Revenue by Region
| Region | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
Europe (USD Mn) | 842 | 932 |
United States (USD Mn) | 502 | 708 |
South America (USD Mn) | 479 | 509 |
China (USD Mn) | 828 | 485 |
South Korea (USD Mn) | 483 | 445 |
Other Asia (USD Mn) | 402 | 338 |
Canada (USD Mn) | 184 | 172 |
Total (USD Mn) | 3,720 | 3,589 |
Geographic Revenue
| Region | FY2024 share (%) | FY2025 share (%) | YoY growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
Europe | 23 | 26 | 10.7 |
United States | 13 | 20 | 41.0 |
South America | 13 | 14 | 6.3 |
China | 22 | 14 | -41.4 |
South Korea | 13 | 12 | -7.9 |
Other Asia | 11 | 9 | -15.9 |
Canada | 5 | 5 | -6.5 |
Share Price History
| Date | Price (USD) | Source |
|---|---|---|
31 Dec 2024 | 49.94 | 2025 Annual MD&A |
30 Jun 2025 | 33.10 | Q2 2026 MD&A |
31 Dec 2025 | 39.72 | 2025 Annual MD&A |
31 Mar 2026 | 59.54 | Q2 2026 MD&A |
30 Jun 2026 | 46.15 | Q2 2026 MD&A |
Late Sep / early Oct 2026 | ~58–59 | StockAnalysis (market data) |
Return metric | Value | Basis |
YTD 2026 (vs. 31 Dec 2025) | ~+48% | Analyst calc at ~US$58.8 |
Since 30 Jun 2025 (~15 months) | ~+78% | Analyst calc |
1-year | Approx. +50–70% (52-week range US$32.00–66.75) | — |
Valuation Snapshot
| Multiple | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Market capitalisation | ~US$4.55B | 77.36M shares |
Enterprise value (market cap + Adjusted debt US$3.32B − cash US$0.38B) | ~US$7.5B | Uses 30 Jun 2026 balances; includes leases |
EV / LTM Adjusted EBITDA (US$1,174M) | ~6.4x | Peak-weighted earnings |
EV / FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA (US$808M) | ~9.3x | Trough-ish year |
EV / LTM Sales (US$4,265M) | ~1.8x | — |
P / E (LTM statutory) | ~50x | Distorted by impairments and share-based-compensation swings |
Forward P / E (consensus) | ~7–8x | StockAnalysis consensus-based figure |
P / B (shareholders' equity US$2,566M) | ~1.8x | — |
Capital Markets
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
Coverage | ~10 analysts (StockAnalysis); consensus "Buy" |
Average 12-month target | ~US$70 |
Notable actions | Scotiabank Outperform, PT US$80 (5 May 2026); UBS Buy, PT US$71; CIBC upgrade to Outperformer, PT US$71 (post-Q2); JPMorgan Neutral, PT cut to US$55 (from US$65); RBC Sector Perform (downgraded 2 Apr 2026) |
Q3 2026 report | Scheduled 29 Oct 2026 (market calendars) |
Per-Share Data and Dividends & Capital Returns
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
Dividend per share (USD) | 0.74 | 0.74 |
Dividends paid (USD Mn) | 50 | 54 |
Buybacks (USD Mn) | 0 | 0 |
Credit Ratings
| Agency | Rating | Outlook | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
Moody's | Ba1 | — | Third-party aggregator; last action reported as "affirm" |
S&P Global | BB | Stable (as of Mar 2024 affirmation) | — |
Fitch | Rated (company IR page lists Fitch) | — | Rating level not captured |
Capital Instruments
| Instrument | Principal (USD Mn) | Coupon | Maturity |
|---|---|---|---|
Senior unsecured notes | 400 | 5.125% | 15 Oct 2027 |
Senior unsecured notes | 700 | 5.25% | 15 Dec 2029 |
Senior unsecured notes (Methanex US Operations Inc., guaranteed) | 600 | 6.25% | 15 Mar 2032 |
Senior unsecured notes | 300 | 5.65% | 1 Dec 2044 |
Limited-recourse vessel debt (100% basis) | ~121 | 5.21%–5.58% | Amortising to 2031 / 2033 / 2036 |
Term Loan A | 0 | SOFR + margin | Fully repaid Q2 2026 |
Revolving credit facility | 0 drawn of 400 | — | Committed |
Natgasoline bonds (JV, 100% basis; equity-accounted) | 291 | 4.75% | Tender 2036; final 2046 |
Analyst Conclusions
Management guidance (Q2 2026 MD&A and call)
2026 production ~9.0 Mt methanol (Methanex interest) and ~0.3 Mt ammonia; July–August 2026 realized price US$460–485/t; Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA lower than Q2 but "another strong quarter"; logistics headwind US$30–40M/quarter; priorities are safe operations, integration completion and deleveraging toward 2.0–2.5x.
Consensus expectations
Third-party consensus implies forward P/E of ~7–8x, consistent with elevated 2026 earnings. Structurally, 2027 volumes fall as Titan and New Zealand exit, offset by full-year US production.
Bull case
-
Supply shock persistence: with 15–20 Mt of traded supply disrupted and few new plants, even a partial normalisation leaves prices above the US$350/t planning basis, sustaining EBITDA well above FY2025's US$808M.
-
Deleveraging re-rating: TLA repaid and US$300M of 2027 notes retired; at mid-cycle EBITDA, leverage moves into the 2.0–2.5x band, opening buybacks for a share count of only 77M.
-
Better asset quality: exits from Trinidad and New Zealand remove volatile, high-cost tonnes, leaving a portfolio anchored by ~6.5 Mt of North American capacity.
Bear case
-
Price reversal: guidance already shows realized prices stepping down from US$529/t; a ceasefire or Iranian supply return could push ARP back toward the US$331–361/t of 2025, when Methanex earned little statutory profit.
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Shrinking volume and stranded costs: idling Titan and New Zealand removes ~1.7 Mt of capacity and brings restructuring and impairment charges (US$100M pre-tax in Q2 2026 alone).
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Cost and trade drag: higher freight, Henry Hub exposure and the 35% Chinese duty on US-origin methanol limit netbacks from the expanded US base.
Catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)
| Catalyst | Timing |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 results and Q4 price guidance | 29 Oct 2026 (scheduled) |
| Completion of US$300M note redemption | 19 Oct 2026 |
| Middle East conflict trajectory / Iranian export volumes | Ongoing |
| Methanex monthly posted prices (NA US$1,480/t in Jul 2026) | Monthly |
| New Zealand idling and any guidance update | Q4 2026–Q1 2027 |
| Trinidad restructuring costs and asset options | Ongoing |
| Remaining 2027 notes (US$400M) refinancing or repayment | By Oct 2027 |
| Leverage target achievement and buyback start | 2026–2027 |
| FY2026 results, 2027 production guidance | Early Mar 2027 |
| 2027 AGM (auditor support, say-on-pay) | ~Apr 2027 |
Analyst verdict
Methanex enters late 2026 as a structurally better but smaller company. The OCI acquisition, closed in June 2025, did what management intended: it moved the centre of gravity of production to North American gas, lifted the produced share of sales from 58% to 79%, and gave the company a platform that generated US$1.0 billion of operating cash flow in a mediocre price year. The decision to idle Titan and exit New Zealand, though painful for those communities and costly in impairments, completes the high-grading by removing two of the most gas-constrained sites in the portfolio.
The 2026 windfall from the Middle East conflict has been used sensibly. Rather than chase buybacks at elevated prices, management repaid Term Loan A in full and is retiring US$300 million of 2027 notes, bringing adjusted leverage to roughly 2.8x on trailing earnings and within reach of its 2.0–2.5x mid-cycle target. Governance is solid — independent chair, a newly strengthened finance bench on the board, and an incentive plan now paying on free cash flow — though the weak auditor-reappointment vote merits follow-up.
The central question is how much of current earnings power is cyclical. Realized prices are already falling from Q2's US$529/t, logistics costs are inflated, and US-origin tonnes face punitive Chinese duties. At around 6.4x trailing EV/EBITDA, the market is not paying for peak earnings; at ~9x FY2025 EBITDA, it is not pricing a collapse either. Our assessment is that Methanex offers a balanced, moderately positive risk–reward: the balance sheet repair is real and largely locked in, the asset base is higher quality, and capital returns become plausible in 2027. The stock remains a high-beta proxy for methanol prices.
Prepared from public disclosures available through 7 October 2026.
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View Subscription PlansExecutive Leadership
Executive Leadership Team
| Name | Title | In role since | Prior roles / background | Education |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Rich Sumner | President & CEO; Director | 1 Jan 2023 | Joined 2004 as Senior Corporate Accountant; SVP Global Marketing & Logistics (Oct 2021–2022) with oversight of North American manufacturing; Regional President M&L Asia Pacific (Hong Kong, 2019–2021); VP M&L North America (Dallas, 2015–2019) | BBA, Simon Fraser University; CPA, CA. Age 51 (Circular) |
Dean Richardson | SVP Finance & CFO | 1 Feb 2023 | Previously VP Corporate Finance; executive sponsor of OCI integration; oversees finance, sustainability and Trinidad operations | — |
Gustavo Parra | SVP Manufacturing | 1 Jan 2023 | Previously VP Manufacturing Strategy & Planning; leads global manufacturing | — |
Karine Delbarre | SVP Global Marketing & Logistics | 1 Jan 2023 | Joined 2008; previously VP North America M&L (Dallas) | — |
Kevin Maloney | SVP Corporate Development | 1 Jan 2023 | Previously VP Corporate Development; Geismar 3 business owner | — |
Mark Allard | SVP Low Carbon Solutions | 1 Jan 2023 | Previously VP North America Manufacturing (Geismar, Medicine Hat) | — |
Kevin Price | SVP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | 1 Jan 2023 (SVP title) | Joined 2005; legal roles in Vancouver and Chile | — |
Bradley Boyd | SVP Corporate Resources | ~2018 | HR / corporate resources leadership | — |
“—” = not publicly disclosed.
Directors' Remuneration
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
CEO total compensation (Board-approved view) | US$8.9M for 2025, comprising base salary, actual STI, target LTI value, pension and other (Circular, HR Committee letter) |
CEO pay mix (target) | 14% base; 18% STI; 34% options/SARs/TSARs; 34% PSUs — 86% at risk |
Other NEO average mix | 28% base; 20% STI; 26% options/SARs; 26% PSUs |
STI metrics | Modified ROCE and deleveraging plus individual goals; for 2026 the Board made free cash flow the sole corporate financial metric |
PSU metrics | Relative TSR and three-year average Modified ROCE |
Third-party summary compensation figure | Simply Wall St reports CEO total compensation of US$6.46M (13.7% salary) — likely the prior-year summary compensation table; differs from the Board's US$8.9M "realised/target" framing |
Say-on-pay | 80.8% support in 2025 (lower than historic, attributed by the company to its largest shareholder's concerns about Geismar 3 operations); approved in 2026 (percentage not captured) |
Board of Directors
| Director | Role | Independent | Director since | Age | Committees | Background |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Doug Arnell | Chair of the Board (since Apr 2019) | Yes | Oct 2016 | 59 | Ex-officio all | CEO Cedar LNG; ex-CEO Golar LNG; BG Group |
Jim Bertram | Director | Yes | Oct 2018 | 69 | HR; Responsible Care | Ex-CEO and Chair, Keyera; director Emera |
Paul Dobson | Director | Yes | Apr 2019 | 59 | Audit, Finance & Risk; HR | Ex-CFO EVgo, Ballard; ex-acting CEO Hydro One |
Maureen Howe | Director | Yes | Jun 2018 | 68 | AFRC; Corporate Governance (Chair) | Ex-MD RBC Capital Markets; Pembina, Freehold boards |
Don Marchand | Director | Yes | Dec 2025 | 63 | AFRC; Responsible Care | Ex-EVP & CFO TC Energy; Fortis board |
Leslie O'Donoghue | Director | Yes | Apr 2020 | 63 | AFRC; HR (Chair) | Ex-EVP Nutrien/Agrium; Pembina board |
Roger Perreault | Director | Yes | Apr 2024 | 62 | AFRC; Responsible Care (Chair) | Ex-President & CEO UGI |
Kevin Rodgers | Director | Yes | Jul 2019 | 63 | Corporate Governance; HR | Ex-Global Head of FX, Deutsche Bank |
John Sampson | Director | Yes | Oct 2023 | 65 | HR; Responsible Care | SVP Operations, Manufacturing & Engineering, Dow |
Rich Sumner | Director; President & CEO | No | Jan 2023 | 51 | None (attends by invitation) | See above |
Benita Warmbold | Director | Yes | Feb 2016 | 67 | AFRC (Chair; financial expert); Corporate Governance | Ex-CFO CPP Investment Board; Scotiabank, AtkinsRéalis boards |
Xiaoping Yang | Director | Yes | Jan 2022 | 67 | Corporate Governance; Responsible Care | Ex-Chair & President BP China |
Board & Management Changes
| Date | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|
1 Jan 2023 | Rich Sumner succeeds John Floren as CEO; six SVP appointments | Planned succession |
1 Feb 2023 | Dean Richardson succeeds Ian Cameron as CFO | Retirement |
Apr 2024 | Roger Perreault joins board | Renewal |
May 2025 | O'Donoghue becomes HR Chair; Perreault becomes Responsible Care Chair | Committee rotation |
1 Dec 2025 | Don Marchand joins board | Finance and North American energy expertise |
Major Shareholders
| Holder | Shares | % outstanding | Source / date |
|---|---|---|---|
M&G Investment Management Ltd | 12,756,931 | 16.5% | Circular (13F dated 12 Feb 2026) |
OCI N.V. (OCI Global) | 9,944,308 | 12.9% | Circular (13G dated 2 Jul 2025); shares received as acquisition consideration |
CEO Rich Sumner | 58,875 common shares (+30,645 DSUs/RSUs) | ~0.08% | Circular, 9 Mar 2026 |
All directors (common shares) | ~165,900 combined | ~0.2% | Analyst sum of Circular disclosures |
Competitive Landscape
Key Competitors
| Competitor | HQ | Methanol position | Relative positioning vs. Methanex |
|---|---|---|---|
Proman | Switzerland / Trinidad | Major merchant producer (Trinidad, Oman, US); affiliate CEL is Natgasoline partner | Closest merchant peer; also gas-constrained in Trinidad |
SABIC (incl. Ar-Razi JV) | Saudi Arabia | Large Middle East producer | Advantaged gas; exposed to 2026 regional conflict logistics |
Iranian producers (e.g. Zagros, Kaveh, others) | Iran | Largest exporting country; sanctioned | Low-price supply to China; 2026 conflict removed volumes |
Petronas Chemicals Group | Malaysia | Labuan complex; ~1.8 Mt of new Malaysian capacity added in 2025 (Methanex MD&A) | Asian supply competitor |
Celanese (incl. Fairway Methanol JV) | USA | Integrated US Gulf Coast producer | Mostly captive for acetyls |
Koch Methanol | USA | St. James, Louisiana | US Gulf Coast merchant competitor |
Mitsubishi Gas Chemical (MGC) | Japan | Overseas JV capacity (e.g. Brunei, Trinidad) and trading | Asian marketer/producer |
OQ / Oman Methanol & Salalah Methanol | Oman | Middle East exporters | Exposed to Gulf disruption |
QAFAC | Qatar | Gulf exporter | Exposed to Gulf disruption |
Chinese coal-to-methanol producers (e.g. China Energy Investment, Yankuang) | China | China accounts for the majority of global capacity; largely integrated | Set marginal cost/affordability in China |
Metafrax | Russia | Large Russian producer | Constrained by sanctions/trade flows |
OCI Global (pre-2025) | Netherlands | Exited international methanol by selling to Methanex | Now a 12.9% Methanex shareholder |
Competitor Detail
| Metric | Methanex (FY2025) |
|---|---|
Methanol revenue | ~US$3.4B (est. methanol share of US$3.589B total; ammonia/other not split) |
Methanol sales volume | 9.5 Mt |
Share of internationally traded methanol | ~20% (company estimate) |
Adjusted EBITDA margin | 22.5% |
R&D intensity | Not disclosed (immaterial) |
Recent Developments
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