Mineral Resources

Income statement — chartable

Sources: FY26 Appendix 4E and results announcement; Market Matters (27 Aug 2026); FY22–FY24 from prior annual reports (re-verify).

MinRes reports primarily on underlying EBITDA and NPAT, and its income statement does not present a conventional gross profit line.

Derived per-share and margin metrics — chartable

FNArena's data feed shows an FY26 net profit margin of −20.21%, which matches the FY25 statutory loss margin; it appears to be lagged. Discrepancy noted.

Revenue CAGR: FY22→FY26 (4 years) ≈ 17.4% p.a.; FY21 (A$3,734M, prior AR) → FY26 (5 years) ≈ 11.7% p.a. (calculated).

Balance sheet — chartable

FNArena's data shows total debt of A$5,762M (short-term A$317M, long-term A$5,445M), most likely as at 31 Dec 2025 or a prior period; not reconciled to 30 June 2026. FY25 liquidity is derived from the company's statement that liquidity "more than doubled" to A$2.4B.

Cash flow — chartable

1H FY26 free cash flow was A$293M, implying 2H FY26 FCF of ~A$556M. FY26 capex of A$1,111M was below the A$1,140M guidance midpoint. Buybacks: none disclosed. The FY26 final dividend (A$163M) was paid 30 September 2026, i.e., in FY27; a DRP operated for this dividend.

Commentary on trends, inflections and drivers

FY22–FY23: lithium super-cycle. Revenue rose ~40% to A$4.8B in FY23 and underlying EBITDA reached ~A$2.4B, a then-record, as spodumene prices peaked. Statutory NPAT lagged (A$244M) due to impairments and the capital-intensive build of Onslow.

FY24: peak capex, falling lithium. Revenue reached ~A$5.3B, but lithium prices collapsed and capex peaked at A$3.4B (Fitch) for Onslow construction. Net debt rose sharply. Only a 20c interim dividend was paid.

FY25: the trough. Revenue fell to ~A$4.5B, underlying EBITDA collapsed to ~A$0.9B and the statutory loss was A$904M, driven by lithium impairments, care-and-maintenance costs (Bald Hill), Onslow ramp-up costs and weak lithium pricing. Net debt/EBITDA reached ~5.9x and the shares hit a five-year low in early 2025. The governance crisis compounded the financial stress, prompting a Fitch downgrade.

FY26: the inflection. Three drivers converged: (1) Onslow Iron at nameplate from August 2025 (FOB cost A$52/wmt), contributing ~A$1B of EBITDA consistent with Fitch's forecast of ~A$1B/yr incremental EBITDA FY26–FY29; (2) record Mining Services volumes (341Mt, +22%); and (3) a lithium price recovery (spodumene prices reportedly up 92% quarter-on-quarter at one point in 2H) combined with record volumes and lower costs at Wodgina. Underlying EBITDA rose 183% to A$2.55B, statutory NPAT swung to A$1,061M (including non-underlying items), FCF was A$849M and net debt fell A$1.1B. Capex discipline (A$1.1B vs A$3.4B in FY24) was essential to the deleveraging.

Key watch-point. The A$239M gap between statutory NPAT (A$1,061M) and underlying NPAT (A$822M) indicates material non-underlying gains in FY26 — likely including contingent payments (Onslow haul road A$200M; Hancock gas A$41M) and/or impairment reversals. The composition should be checked in the 2026 Annual Report before relying on statutory earnings as recurring.

Management guidance (FY27)

Volume growth in every division: Mining Services 370–390Mt (+9–14%); attributable iron ore 30.0–32.7M wmt; lithium 660–750k dmt SC6 including Bald Hill 100–120k. Growth capex focused on Mt Marion (flotation and underground) and Onslow. Wodgina cost-down from Q2 FY27. Financial guidance cited by third parties (revenue A$7.5–8.5B; underlying EBITDA A$2.8–3.2B; underlying NPAT A$0.9–1.1B) is unconfirmed.

Bull case

1. Deleveraging flywheel: FY26 FCF of A$849M plus ~A$1.0B post-tax POSCO proceeds could take net debt toward ~A$3B, supporting rating upgrades (Fitch trigger: <3.0x sustained, already met at 1.7x) and lower funding costs.

2. Volume-led earnings growth independent of price: Mining Services +9–14%, lithium +18–34% and Onslow beyond nameplate give multiple earnings levers rather than one commodity.

3. Valuation: at ~A$50, EV/EBITDA ~5.6x trailing and below most broker targets (A$70–A$86); the removal of the ASIC overhang lowers the governance discount.

Bear case

1. Commodity reversal: FY25 showed a A$904M statutory loss is possible; lithium prices are volatile and Onslow's lower-grade fines face new seaborne supply.

2. Earnings quality and capex: ~A$239M of FY26 statutory profit is non-underlying, while FY27 capex rises; Market Matters argues the test is converting EBITDA into cash and lower debt.

3. Leadership and governance: no MD handover date, CE Lithium departing, and an unresolved class action; POSCO completion already beyond its original timetable.

Catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)

Analyst verdict

Mineral Resources enters FY27 as a materially de-risked but not yet de-levered business. The FY26 result validated the core thesis that MinRes's integrated services model can build and operate tier-one infrastructure at a structural cost advantage: Onslow Iron reached 35Mtpa three years after FID at a FOB cost of A$52/wmt and delivered roughly A$1 billion of EBITDA in its first full year, while Mining Services posted record volumes at a 31% margin. Lithium, the source of the FY25 collapse, swung back to meaningful profitability on price and record volumes, and the company is now positioned with three operating hard-rock mines into a recovering market. Net debt fell A$1.1 billion to A$4.3 billion, liquidity doubled to A$2.4 billion, and the dividend was reinstated.

Three issues prevent an unqualified view. First, the balance sheet is improved rather than repaired: A$4.3 billion of net debt against a cyclical earnings base, sub-investment-grade ratings and rising FY27 growth capex means a commodity downturn would again test the company. Completion of the long-delayed POSCO transaction is the single most important near-term balance sheet event. Second, earnings quality warrants scrutiny: roughly a quarter of FY26 statutory profit was non-underlying, and Mining Services revenue fell despite record volumes. Third, governance and leadership remain in transition: the founder has no set exit date, has begun selling shares, and the lithium chief is departing — even as the board refresh and the closure of the ASIC investigation materially improve the governance picture.

On balance, at approximately 5–6x trailing EV/EBITDA, the market is pricing MinRes closer to its FY25 stress than its FY26 delivery. If POSCO completes, Wodgina's cost-down arrives in Q2 FY27 and lithium prices hold, the equity has meaningful re-rating potential. Investors should treat it as a high-beta, execution-proven, leverage-sensitive vehicle and size positions accordingly.