NEL ASA

Source for all tables in this section unless noted: S&P Global Market Intelligence and Fiscal.ai standardised data via StockAnalysis.com (updated 15 July 2026), cross-checked against Nel releases. FY2021–FY2022 may include the fuelling business, later discontinued. FY2023 onward reflects continuing operations (alkaline plus PEM). Units: NOK million unless stated.

Income statement

Notes:

• FY2022 impairment includes NOK 296.4m goodwill impairment plus NOK 30.9m other write-downs.

• FY2021 pre-tax loss includes a NOK -1,113m loss on investments, mainly related to the Everfuel stake.

• FY2023 net income includes NOK -289.1m from discontinued operations (fuelling).

• FY2024 includes NOK +13.3m from discontinued operations.

• In 2024 Cavendish Hydrogen shares were distributed in kind. No cash dividend was paid to Nel shareholders, although the cash-flow statement shows NOK 625.4m classified as dividends.

Margins and growth

Revenue CAGR FY2021–FY2025: about 6.3% per year on the S&P basis (753.1 to 963.11). The CAGR overstates continuity because FY2021–FY2022 likely include fuelling. On the continuing-operations basis, revenue fell from NOK 1,350m (FY2023) to NOK 963m (FY2025), a two-year CAGR of about -15.5%.

Trend commentary.

Revenue inflection: Growth peaked in FY2023 (+47.5%) as alkaline project deliveries ramped, then flattened in FY2024. FY2025 revenue collapsed by 30.7%. Management attributed the fall to alkaline-specific problems: contract cancellations (e.g., Statkraft 40 MW, April 2025), a customer bankruptcy, and a lack of new large alkaline orders (Q4 2025 earnings call). TTM revenue to June 2026 fell further to NOK 935m.

Gross margin: Gross margin expanded strongly from 26% (FY2021) to 62.8% (FY2024). Revenue mix and project margin improvements helped. So did accounting effects: cost of revenue excludes significant production overheads and idle-capacity costs, which sit in operating expenses. The high gross margin therefore does not translate into operating profitability.

Operating loss: EBIT losses narrowed from NOK -951m (FY2022) to NOK -389m (FY2024), then widened to NOK -587m in FY2025 as revenue fell against a semi-fixed cost base. TTM EBIT is NOK -602m.

Impairments: FY2025 net loss (NOK -1,265m) was dominated by NOK 799m of impairments. These covered alkaline production assets at Herøya (the atmospheric lines made largely redundant by the PA-Series pivot) and PEM goodwill and technology intangibles. Goodwill fell from NOK 411.8m to NOK 61.4m.

Q2 2026: Q2 2026 EBITDA of NOK -155m included NOK 70m tied to the Iwatani settlement. Adjusted EBITDA (≈NOK -85m) was broadly in line with Q2 2025 (NOK -86m).

Balance sheet

At 30 June 2026: cash NOK 1,328m, total debt NOK 218.5m (all lease liabilities), net cash NOK 1,110m, equity NOK 3,602m, total assets NOK 4,639m, inventory NOK 889.5m (Source: S&P via StockAnalysis; Q2 2026 report).

Commentary.

No financial debt: All "debt" is IFRS 16 lease liabilities; long-term bank debt was nil from FY2024.

Cash burn: Cash fell from NOK 3.39bn (end-2023) to NOK 1.33bn (June 2026), a drop of about NOK 2.06bn in 2.5 years. Part of this was cash transferred with the Cavendish spin-off in 2024 (~NOK 625m), so the underlying burn was lower.

Inventory build: Inventory rose to NOK 919m at end-2025 despite collapsing revenue. Contributing factors include alkaline equipment repossessed from a defaulting customer (January 2025 release) and components for cancelled or delayed projects. This is a key monitorable for future write-downs.

Asset write-down: Total assets fell 21% in FY2025, mainly from impairments.

Cash flow

The FY2024 NOK -625.4m "dividends" line reflects cash leaving the group in connection with the Cavendish Hydrogen spin-off, not a cash dividend to Nel shareholders; this is an analyst interpretation. TTM to June 2026: OCF NOK -305m, capex NOK -130m, FCF NOK -435m.

Commentary.

Equity funding: Nel funded its 2021–2023 expansion with about NOK 4.4bn of new equity. The only raise since then was the Samsung E&A placement (NOK 353m, 2025).

Lower burn, but not by enough: FY2025 FCF burn (NOK -398m) was the lowest in five years thanks to lower capex and working-capital release (receivables down NOK 206m). TTM burn has worsened to NOK -435m.

Capex outlook: PA-Series capex of about NOK 300m before grants is due over 2026–2027. EU Innovation Fund milestone payments (first payment above EUR 10m) partly offset it.

Ratios

Sources: ROE, ROA, ROIC, liquidity, leverage and turnover ratios are from S&P via StockAnalysis. Interest coverage, DIO, DSO, DPO and CCC are analyst calculations from year-end balances (DIO = 365 / inventory turnover; DSO = receivables / revenue × 365; DPO = payables / cost of revenue × 365). Net debt/EBITDA is not meaningful because EBITDA is negative and the company is net cash.

Ratio commentary. Liquidity is ample: the current ratio is about 4x and there is no financial debt. Capital efficiency is very poor. The cash conversion cycle has lengthened dramatically, from about 440 days to about 668 days, driven by inventory accumulation. Combined with an S&P Altman Z-score of 1.44 and a Piotroski F-score of 2, the data point to deteriorating operating fundamentals despite a sound headline balance sheet.

Management guidance

There is no numeric revenue or EBITDA guidance. Qualitative messages from the Q2 2026 report (paraphrased):

• Encouraging commercial momentum, with two significant purchase orders and the PA-Series launch.

• Strategy unchanged despite the CEO transition.

• Cash plus cost-base adjustments allow Nel to fund operations, invest in technology and resume growth when the market recovers.

• PA-Series delivery at scale is expected in 2027, with capex incurred in 2026–2027.

Consensus expectations

The aggregator consensus implies about 16.5% annual revenue growth over three years from a depressed base (S&P via StockAnalysis), with a "Sell" consensus rating.

Bull case

1. PA-Series becomes the cost leader. If the claimed <USD 1,450/kW turnkey cost and 40–60% CAPEX reduction hold up in the field, Nel could win a disproportionate share of the next wave of European FIDs. A 1 GW line costing ~NOK 300m before up-to-60% grant support would be low-cost capacity relative to Nel's NOK ~3.8bn market value.

2. PEM momentum plus defence give a revenue floor. PEM backlog of NOK 990m (Q2 2026) plus ~USD 20m of Q3 naval orders support PEM revenue through 2027–2028. Defence demand is less policy-dependent and repeats.

3. Balance sheet, Samsung and valuation provide downside support. The stock trades near book value (~1.0x P/B, ~2.8x EV/Sales). Net cash of ~NOK 1.1bn covers about 30% of market cap. A strategic owner (Samsung E&A) sits on the register, and its standstill expires around March 2027.

Bear case

1. Cash runway and dilution. At a TTM FCF of NOK -435m plus PA capex, cash of NOK 1.33bn implies roughly 2–3 years of runway before new equity is needed, absent a revenue recovery. Historical precedent (NOK ~4.4bn raised 2021–2023) suggests dilution risk.

2. Alkaline revenue cliff and inventory risk. The alkaline backlog has fallen to NOK 224m, implying alkaline revenue near trough levels until PA orders convert, likely not before 2027. NOK ~0.9bn of inventory with ~664 days DIO carries further write-down risk.

3. Leadership and competition. CEO-less execution of a first-of-kind industrialisation, against bigger competitors (nucera, Siemens Energy) and Chinese price leaders, raises execution and pricing risk. The "Sell" consensus reflects this scepticism.

Catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)

Concluding analyst verdict

Nel ASA enters late 2026 as a company whose strategic logic has improved while its financial profile has deteriorated. The FY2025 reset was severe: revenue down 31% to NOK 963m, a NOK 1.27bn net loss and NOK 799m of impairments. It also cleared away much of the overbuilt atmospheric-alkaline legacy. What remains is a leaner dual-technology OEM with no financial debt and about NOK 1.3bn of cash. It has a credible PEM franchise with a backlog near NOK 1bn and a valuable defence niche. Its pressurised alkaline platform, if the claimed economics hold, could reposition Nel as a cost leader in large-scale electrolysis.

The investment case therefore hinges on three binary questions over the next 12–18 months:

1. Does the PA-Series convert from launch publicity into signed, profitable orders from bankable customers, ideally through Samsung E&A or Saipem?

2. Can the board appoint a CEO with industrialisation credibility before Volldal's departure without strategic drift?

3. Can cash burn be held near NOK 400–450m a year so the runway reaches 2027–2028 PA deliveries without a heavily discounted equity raise?

On current evidence the stock is priced for scepticism: roughly book value, about 2.8x EV/Sales, and a consensus "Sell". That pricing is justified by the absence of guidance, a shrinking alkaline backlog, a lengthening cash cycle and leadership uncertainty.

Our assessment is a Neutral / Hold with a speculative positive skew for long-horizon holders. Downside is cushioned by net cash and a strategic shareholder. Upside requires evidence that the PA-Series cost claims hold up in commercial contracts. The key near-term tests are Q3 2026 order intake, the CEO appointment and the first PA-Series order. Investors should treat any new large alkaline order with skilled-EPC backing as the most important single signal of a fundamental turn.