New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited

Unless noted, figures are in USD millions for fiscal years ended September 30. Sources: Forms 20-F for FY2024 and FY2025 (and F-1/A for FY2022–FY2023), cross-checked against S&P Global Market Intelligence data via StockAnalysis.

Income statement

Notes: - The FY2025 operating loss is USD −10,838,756 per the 20-F (gross profit USD 162,650 less operating expenses USD 11,001,406). S&P Global shows −10.82; the filing figure is used.

• FY2021 and FY2025 pre-tax and tax figures are derived from S&P Global pre-tax margins (analyst calculation).

• The FY2025 tax line is an implied benefit of about USD 0.08M.

• EBITDA uses only the depreciation charged within G&A (FY2022 0.201; FY2023 0.187; FY2024 0.179; FY2025 0.036). Any depreciation in cost of revenue or right-of-use amortisation is not separately disclosed in the excerpts reviewed, so EBITDA may be understated.

• Share-based compensation for FY2025 is "approximately US$6.4 million" per the 20-F/A MD&A.

• The 20-F/A states no dividend was approved or declared in FY2024 or FY2025. Pre-IPO distributions are covered in 6.4.

Data conflicts: Yahoo Finance shows TTM EPS of −29.68, which is −3.71 × 8, an apparent double split-adjustment. VCP Scanner shows FY2025 revenue of USD 48.3M and a net loss of USD 2.2M. Both conflict with the audited 20-F and are disregarded.

Margins and growth

Revenue CAGR: FY2021–FY2025 (4-year) −11.4%; FY2022–FY2025 (3-year) −16.3% (analyst calculations).

Interim and trailing data (unaudited)

Sources: 6-K Jul 13, 2026 (H1 FY2026 with H1 FY2025 comparatives); H2 FY2025 = FY2025 audited minus H1 FY2025 (analyst calculation). TTM to Mar 31, 2026 (S&P Global): revenue USD 51.25M, operating income −9.52M, net income −9.13M.

Balance sheet

Source: S&P Global via StockAnalysis (standardised). The FY2025 20-F reports gross accounts receivable of about USD 12.3M with an allowance of about USD 0.5M, and bank overdraft of about USD 0.7M plus bank borrowings of about USD 1.9M at Sep 30, 2025. At Mar 31, 2026: total assets USD 12.11M, liabilities USD 7.23M, equity USD 4.87M, cash USD 0.062M, bank overdraft USD 1.02M (6-K, Jul 13, 2026).

Equity roll-forward and implied pre-IPO distributions (analyst calculation, not separately verified). Retained earnings fell from USD 12.67M (FY2021) to USD 11.37M (FY2022) even though FY2022 net income was USD 6.98M. That implies distributions of about USD 8.3M in FY2022. Retained earnings then fell to USD 5.83M in FY2023 against net income of USD 0.45M, implying about USD 6.0M of distributions in FY2023. In total, roughly USD 14M appears to have been distributed to pre-IPO owners in the two years before the IPO, more than twice the USD 6.0M the IPO raised. FX translation movements could account for a small part of the difference. Additional paid-in capital rose from USD 0.15M (FY2024) to USD 9.91M (FY2025), reflecting IPO proceeds and the roughly USD 6.4M share-based compensation credit.

Ratios (analyst calculations unless noted)

Method notes: - FY2021 ROE, ROA and asset turnover use year-end balances because FY2020 is not available. Other years use averages.

• ROIC = operating income × (1 − 16.5% Hong Kong profits tax) ÷ (equity + total debt − cash). For FY2025 no tax shield is applied.

• Receivable and payable days for FY2024–FY2025 are as reported in the FY2025 20-F. FY2021–FY2023 are analyst calculations on year-end balances.

• There is no inventory, so the cash conversion cycle equals receivable days minus payable days.

• Interest coverage is not computed because interest expense is not separately disclosed in the excerpts reviewed. S&P Global shows TTM interest coverage of −103.9×.

• FY2025 net debt to EBITDA is not meaningful because EBITDA is negative.

Commentary: trends, inflections and drivers

1. Super-normal pandemic profits (FY2021–FY2022). Air-freight capacity shortages under COVID restrictions pushed rates up. The FY2024 20-F explicitly ties the higher 2022 freight rate to strong demand and a significant capacity shortage. NCEW earned gross margins of 14–15% and net income of USD 5.5–7.0M on about USD 72–75M of revenue, with ROE above 40%. Operating cash flow was strong (USD 4.6M and 6.8M). Most of this cash appears to have been distributed to pre-IPO owners (about USD 14M over FY2022–FY2023), not retained.

2. Normalisation shock (FY2023). Revenue halved (−52%) as rates fell back. Air-freight revenue dropped from USD 72.6M to USD 33.2M. Ocean volume rose 65% in CBM, but unit prices fell, so ocean revenue roughly halved. Gross margin fell to 9.7% and net income to USD 0.45M. Receivable days stretched to about 116, and operating cash flow turned negative (−USD 2.5M), funded by new short-term bank debt (USD 0 to 1.87M).

3. Volume recovery without margin (FY2024). Revenue rebounded 44.6% to USD 52.2M on air volumes, but gross margin slipped again to 8.1%. IPO-related professional fees (USD 0.76M, +160%) and an expected-credit-loss charge (USD 0.24M) cut net income to USD 0.22M.

4. Collapse in FY2025. Revenue fell 15.5% to USD 44.1M. Cost of sales fell only 8.4%, as air-freight costs rose relative to selling prices. Gross profit almost disappeared (USD 0.16M). G&A tripled to USD 11.0M, driven mainly by about USD 6.4M of share-based compensation (nil in FY2024) and professional fees of USD 0.97M. Excluding SBC, the FY2025 operating loss was still about USD 4.4M. That is a structural loss given G&A excluding SBC of about USD 4.6M against near-zero gross profit. Almost all of the deterioration occurred in H2 FY2025 (derived H2 gross loss of USD 0.62M; H2 net loss of USD 8.81M).

5. Partial repair (H1 FY2026). Revenue rose 33.5% year on year to USD 28.56M, and the operating loss narrowed to USD 0.53M. Gross profit, however, was flat at USD 0.77M (2.7% margin), well below the historical 8–15%. Liquidity is very tight: cash was USD 62k at March 31, 2026 against an overdraft of USD 1.02M. Equity of USD 4.87M supports a market value of about USD 54M (P/B about 11×).

Management guidance

None issued. Qualitatively, management expects G&A, particularly payroll and consulting fees, to keep rising with expansion. It continues to describe Japan-hub, UK, drone and Silk Way initiatives without financial targets.

Consensus expectations

None available. There is no sell-side coverage.

Bull case

1. Volume recovery is real. H1 FY2026 revenue grew 33.5% to USD 28.56M. The operating loss shrank from USD 1.83M to USD 0.53M, and the net loss from USD 1.87M to USD 0.32M. If the October–January peak in H1 FY2027 repeats this pattern with any margin recovery, breakeven is achievable.

2. High operating leverage. G&A excluding SBC is about USD 4.6M. Returning to even half of the FY2024 gross margin (about 4% on roughly USD 55M revenue) would yield gross profit of about USD 2.2M, and a full return to 8% would yield about USD 4.4M, which covers the cost base.

3. Optionality from partnerships and Japan. Closing the Asiatic deal or turning the Silk Way or JD Logistics UK arrangements into revenue would broaden the lane mix beyond HKG exports into e-commerce and Japan corridors, at a time when HKIA is investing heavily in e-commerce capacity.

Bear case

1. Structural margin erosion. Gross margin has fallen every year from 15.35% (FY2022) to 0.37% (FY2025), and H1 FY2026 was only 2.7%. That points to a loss of pricing power, not a cyclical blip. Block-space commitments create asymmetric downside.

2. Balance-sheet fragility and dilution risk. Cash was USD 62k, the overdraft was USD 1.02M and receivables stretched to 107 days at March 2026. About 90% of debt is short term. Further equity issuance is likely, and the FY2025 share-based compensation (about USD 6.4M) already shows a willingness to issue shares.

3. Governance and valuation. There is a material weakness, an SEC comment letter, a late 20-F, a Rosen investigation, unrelated acquisitions with undisclosed terms, a combined Chair/CEO and about 67% concentrated ownership. P/B of about 11× and P/S of about 1× on a float of about 0.4M shares leave the price exposed to sharp reversals. The stock is already 47.5% below its split-adjusted IPO price.

Catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)

Analyst verdict

New Century Logistics is a small Hong Kong air-freight consolidator whose economics depend on the HKG export cycle. In FY2021–FY2022 it earned about USD 12.5M of net income on roughly USD 147M of cumulative revenue. Most of that cash appears to have been distributed to pre-IPO owners, about USD 14M implied over FY2022–FY2023. Since the December 2024 IPO raised only USD 6.0M, results have deteriorated. FY2025 revenue fell 15.5% to USD 44.1M, gross margin dropped to 0.37%, and the net loss reached USD 10.7M. About USD 6.4M of that loss was share-based compensation, but underlying operating losses were still around USD 4.4M. H1 FY2026 brought a credible volume recovery (+33.5%) and a near-breakeven result. Even so, gross margin of about 2.7% remains well below what is needed to cover a cost base of roughly USD 4.6M a year on a sustained basis.

The strategic narrative has moved from forwarding toward a wide portfolio of MOUs and unrelated subsidiaries in film, money lending and payments. None has disclosed revenue, and the one material acquisition, Asiatic, has stayed at LOI stage for 16 months. Governance signals are weak: a material weakness, an SEC comment letter, a late annual report, a plaintiff-firm investigation, a combined Chair/CEO role and four holders controlling about two-thirds of the shares.

At about USD 54M market value, the shares trade at roughly 11× book value and about 1× sales. That is a premium to profitable global forwarders, which usually trade well below 1× sales, and it is sustained mainly by an extremely thin float rather than by fundamentals. A positive re-rating would require evidence that gross margin is recovering toward 5–8% and that the balance sheet can be financed without heavy dilution. Until the FY2026 20-F shows both, the risk/reward is unfavourable. Verdict: speculative and fundamentally unattractive. Monitor peak-season margins, financing actions and the Asiatic outcome.