Nova Eye Medical Limited

All statutory figures in A$, continuing operations. Primary sources: Appendix 4E/Annual Reports FY2022–FY2026, FY results releases. Secondary: InvestSMART/Morningstar, Barchart (data from filings), Stoxray.

Income statement

Notes: - FY2022 revenue A$13.378 million (Stoxray; "just under A$13.4 million" per Biotech Daily); FY2021 revenue A$12.769 million, used for FY2022 growth.

• FY2023 revenue A$17.025 million (Stoxray); InvestSMART shows A$17.5 million, which likely includes other income.

• FY2023 EBITDA is derived from the FY24 release (FY24 loss of A$5.7 million was an A$2.9 million improvement); InvestSMART shows –A$8.71 million.

• Net profit: FY2022 –A$7.496 million, FY2023 –A$15.293 million, FY2024 –A$8.790 million, FY2025 –A$9.059 million (Barchart, from filings); FY2026 –A$4.333 million (Appendix 4E FY2026). FY2023 includes about A$6.1 million of items below "net profit before abnormals" (InvestSMART: –A$9.2 million before, –A$15.3 million after), consistent with impairment.

• EPS from InvestSMART. FY2026 implied basic EPS is about –1.5 A cents (computed: –A$4.333 million ÷ about 285 million shares) pending confirmation from the Annual Report.

• Gross profit in A$ was not captured. Company-reported gross margin was about 83% in FY2022 (Kalkine), 66% in H1 FY2025, 70% in H2 FY2025 and 70% in H1 FY2026.

Margin profile

Computed from 6.1: Sources: H1FY25 report (sales A$12.925 million; EBITDA –A$4.237 million); FY25 presentation (GM 66% to 70%; opex/sales 88% to 70%); H1FY26 report (sales A$16.712 million; EBITDA –A$2.204 million; GM 70%); FY26 Appendix 4E (H2 EBITDA +A$172k). H2 values are derived as full year minus H1.

Revenue CAGR FY2022–FY2026 (A$): about 27% a year (A$13.4 million to A$34.9 million, computed). Company-reported constant-currency growth was 35% (FY24), 23% (FY25) and 26% (FY26). Management describes FY2026 as the fourth consecutive year above 25% in US$ terms.

Trend commentary. The income statement shows a classic medtech operating-leverage inflection. Between FY2023 and FY2026, revenue roughly doubled (+105%) while EBITDA losses shrank from about A$8.6 million to A$2.0 million. Three drivers stand out:

1. The iTrack Advance launch in the USA from April 2023. US sales rose from about US$6.7 million (FY23, derived) to US$18.6 million (FY26).

2. Gross-margin recovery. Supply-chain-driven production cost increases depressed H1 FY2025 margin to 66%. Process improvements, yield gains and "pricing discipline" restored it to 70%.

3. Opex discipline. Opex as a share of sales fell from 88% to 70% across FY2025.

FY2023 was the trough: heavy US launch investment, depressed post-COVID volumes and impairment-type charges drove a –A$15.3 million net loss. The FY2026 net loss of A$4.3 million still reflects depreciation and amortisation (about A$2 million a year historically), interest on the working-capital facility, and share-based payments. Reported A$ growth (19%) lagged constant-currency growth (26%) in FY2026 because the A$ strengthened against the US$.

Balance sheet

Sources: Total assets from Barchart and InvestSMART. FY2025 cash A$5.055 million (Biotech Daily; ASX FY25: A$5.1 million); FY2024 cash derived from "down 18%" (about A$6.2 million). Debt and equity FY2025 from InvestSMART (total debt A$3.017 million, long-term A$2.383 million, equity A$18.967 million). FY2026 net assets A$14.275 million (Appendix 4E FY2026).

Liquidity events in FY2026.

• Cash fell to A$1.2 million at 31 March 2026, with A$2.14 million of unused debt facilities (Q3 FY26 4C).

• Liquidity at 30 June 2026 was about A$3.7–3.75 million of cash plus undrawn facilities (Q4 FY26 4C; FY26 results).

• The company entered an A$2.75 million loan facility with River Street Nominees Pty Ltd, replacing the earlier receivables-backed working-capital facility. That facility had been secured by accounts receivable and tangible assets (Nov 2025 webinar; Appendix 4E FY2026).

• Goodwill and intangibles: the balance-sheet split was not captured in reviewed sources. Intangibles relate to capitalised development and Molteno-related assets.

• Working capital: not separately disclosed in reviewed sources. FY2022 current ratio was about 4.0x (Kalkine).

Commentary. The balance sheet has been eroding steadily since the post-divestiture peak: about A$26 million of cash at 30 June 2020, net of the A$0.29 per share distribution. Equity has been replenished three times with dilutive raises (2023, A$8 million in 2024, A$6.6 million in 2025). FY2026 net assets fell to A$14.3 million from A$19.0 million because no equity was raised and losses continued. The company now funds itself with a small secured loan. With EBITDA at breakeven, the balance sheet is adequate only if growth and margins continue as guided. Any setback would likely force another equity raise at a depressed price.

Cash flow

Sources: Operating cash flow FY2022–FY2024 from Stoxray (–A$4.683 million, –A$6.721 million, –A$7.857 million) and InvestSMART (FY2023 –A$6.82 million; FY2025 –A$6.15 million); ASX FY25 release (A$6.2 million outflow vs A$7.9 million). Financing values are rounded aggregator figures. FY2026 full-year operating cash flow was not captured; quarterly outflows were A$0.798 million (Q1) and A$1.2 million (Q3, affected by advance payments and FX).

Capex and free cash flow. Capex is not separately disclosed in reviewed sources and is small (investing outflow about A$1 million in FY2025). FY2025 free cash flow was about –A$7.2 million (operating –A$6.2 million plus investing –A$1.0 million, derived).

Commentary. Operating cash burn peaked in FY2024 (A$7.9 million) and has fallen every year since. Quarterly burn reached about A$0.8 million by Q4 FY2025 and Q1 FY2026, and Q3 FY2026 was temporarily worse because of supplier prepayments and currency. Management has warned that cash flow lags EBITDA because of working capital, including inventory build for China and receivables growth as US sales scale.

Key ratios

Computed from tables above except current ratio (Kalkine, FY2022). ROIC: Halo Technologies reported –36.4% (FY2024/25 basis). Interest coverage: negative (EBIT negative). Net debt/EBITDA and debt/equity: not meaningful (EBITDA negative through FY2025; net cash position through FY2025, with InvestSMART net gearing of –10.7%). Cash conversion cycle: not publicly disclosed.

Management guidance

FY2027 sales excluding China are guided at US$26–31 million, with positive full-year EBITDA. Management states it has sufficient liquidity (about A$3.75 million of cash and debt facilities at 30 June 2026) to support these targets (FY26 results, 26 Aug 2026). China upside from iTrack Advance sits on top of guidance.

Consensus

Formal consensus is not publicly disclosed. Guidance implies about 10–31% growth on FY26 group sales of US$23.7 million. The low end of guidance would represent the slowest growth in four years.

Bull case

1. Operating leverage is now visible. EBITDA swung from –A$8.6 million (FY23) to +A$0.17 million (H2 FY26) while revenue doubled. At a 70% gross margin and opex/sales trending toward 70% or below, each additional US$1 million of US sales should drop roughly US$0.5–0.7 million to EBITDA. The mid-point of FY27 guidance could therefore deliver meaningful positive EBITDA and self-funding.

2. Long US runway in a growing category. At about 4% of 30,000–35,000 monthly US procedures, doubling share to 8% would roughly double US revenue. Sight Sciences' 2025 stagnation suggests Nova Eye is winning canal-based share.

3. Cheap optionality. Trading near 1x EV/Sales, the market assigns little value to China Advance, drug delivery or 2RT, any of which could re-rate the stock or attract a strategic acquirer.

Bear case

1. Funding fragility. Net assets of A$14.3 million and A$1.2 million cash at March 2026 leave little margin. A quarter of slower US growth, a reimbursement shock or a China stocking reversal could force another dilutive raise at or below A$0.12.

2. Reimbursement and competitive risk. Medicare LCD and fee-schedule changes are binary for a single-procedure company, and rivals have far larger evidence and sales budgets.

3. Structural margin and scale gap. At 70% gross margin versus 86% at Sight Sciences, and with Germany flat, the business may plateau at a sub-scale level. Guidance as low as US$26 million implies decelerating growth.

Catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)

Analyst verdict

Nova Eye Medical has completed the hardest part of its post-Ellex reinvention. Six years after selling its laser business for A$100 million, it has turned a pandemic-battered iTrack franchise of about A$13 million in revenue into a A$34.9 million (US$23.7 million) business. Growth has exceeded 25% for four straight years, gross margin has recovered to about 70%, and the company reached its first EBITDA-positive half in H2 FY2026. The engine is clear and credible: iTrack Advance in the US, sold directly into a large, under-penetrated pool of mild-to-moderate glaucoma surgeries where Nova Eye holds only 3–5% share. The evidence base is improving, and the company appears to be taking share from its closest canal-based competitor, Sight Sciences, whose interventional-glaucoma revenue was flat in 2025.

The equity story is nonetheless constrained by balance-sheet arithmetic. Net assets have shrunk to A$14.3 million, cash dipped to A$1.2 million in March 2026, and liquidity depends on a modest A$2.75 million secured loan plus continued breakeven trading. Shareholders have absorbed three raises since 2023, the latest at A$0.12, and the share price, at about A$0.13, sits roughly where that raise was priced despite a more than 50% increase in revenue since. The market is treating Nova Eye as a funding risk rather than a growth asset.

FY2027 is therefore a "prove-it" year. If the company delivers sales near the mid-point of its US$26–31 million guidance with positive EBITDA and stable US reimbursement, the funding overhang should lift. At about 1x EV/Sales the stock would then look mispriced against peers and potential strategic acquirers. Failure on any of those three fronts would likely mean further dilution. On balance, the risk/reward is asymmetric but highly execution-dependent.

Source index (primary unless noted)

• ASX releases (announcements.asx.com.au): FY24 results (26 Aug 2024); Sept 2024 quarterly (31 Oct 2024); H1 FY25 (26 Feb 2025); FY25 results (27 Aug 2025); Record December quarter (12 Jan 2026); Q2 FY26 4C (29 Jan 2026); H1 FY26 (26 Feb 2026); Guidance upgrade (5 May 2026); FY20 results (28 Aug 2020); March 2023 investor presentation

• ASX releases via InvestorPA, InvestSMART and Webull: NMPA approval (30 Sep 2025); Q1 FY26 4C (31 Oct 2025); Q3 FY26 4C (29 Apr 2026); Q4 FY26 4C (29 Jul 2026); FY26 Appendix 4E and results (26 Aug 2026); AGM notice (3 Sep 2026); Q4 FY25 4C (29 Jul 2025); FY25 Appendix 4E (27 Aug 2025); cleansing notice (7 Feb 2025)

• Q1 FY26 investor webinar transcript (roic.ai, Nov 2025); November 2025 investor presentation (Bell Potter-hosted)

• Sight Sciences Q4/FY2025 results (SEC Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, 2026)

• Secondary: Market Index; InvestSMART financials; Morningstar via Motley Fool; Barchart; Stoxray; EODHD; Halo Technologies; Kalkine (Dec 2022; Jul 2026); Biotech Daily (Jun 2023; Oct 2025); InDaily (May and Nov 2020); Insight News (2020); mivision (2020); NZ Optics (Aug 2020); CRSToday (2020); TipRanks; Moomoo/MT Newswires; IBISWorld; Plunkett Research