OLIN Corporation. Overview
Olin is a vertically integrated North American chlor-alkali producer with three businesses: commodity chlorine chemistry, epoxy, and ammunition. It runs among the world's largest electrochemical-unit (ECU) capacity bases, chiefly at Freeport (Texas), Plaquemine (Louisiana), and McIntosh (Alabama). From that base it sells caustic soda, chlorine derivatives, and ethylene dichloride (EDC) and vinyl chloride monomer (VCM). It also feeds chlorine internally into one of the world's most integrated epoxy chains.
Separately, its Winchester segment is one of the leading U.S. ammunition makers. Winchester operates the government-owned Lake City Army Ammunition Plant, which supplies most of the U.S. Army's small-calibre ammunition.
After a record 2021–2022 super-cycle, earnings fell sharply. FY2025 adjusted EBITDA was $651.8M against $873.9M in FY2024. Causes included weak global chlor-vinyl and epoxy demand, subsidised Asian epoxy imports, and commercial ammunition destocking. Leverage rose to about 5x net debt/EBITDA by mid-2026.
Management under CEO Ken Lane, in post since March 2024, has responded with a "value-first" commercial posture, the "Beyond250" structural cost programme, and now a transformational merger with Huntsman. The merger is intended to pair Olin's upstream chlorine molecules with Huntsman's downstream polyurethane and advanced-materials formulations.
Company's own description (paraphrased from the FY2025 10-K, Item 1)
| Segment | Share of FY2025 sales | Products described in the 10-K |
|---|---|---|
| Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls (CAPV) | 54% | Chlorine, caustic soda, EDC, VCM, methyl chloride, methylene chloride, chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, perchloroethylene, hydrochloric acid, hydrogen, bleach, and potassium hydroxide |
| Epoxy | 20% | Aromatics (acetone, phenol), allyl chloride, epichlorohydrin, liquid and solid epoxy resins, and formulated solutions (converted resins, additives) |
| Winchester | 26% | Sporting ammunition, reloading components, small-calibre military ammunition and components, industrial cartridges, and clay targets, plus contracted U.S. military project revenue |
Olin describes itself as a leading vertically integrated global manufacturer and distributor of chemical products and a leading U.S. ammunition manufacturer. All three segments are capital-intensive manufacturing businesses.
Business model and revenue model
Olin's revenue is almost entirely product revenue. There is no meaningful subscription or licensing income. The main exception is contracted U.S. military project revenue at Winchester, which is recognised over time on construction and modernisation work at Lake City.
CAPV economics: Chlorine and caustic soda are co-produced in fixed ratio as one "ECU" (about 1 tonne chlorine to about 1.1 tonnes caustic soda). Profitability depends on the combined ECU value, which in turn depends on:
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caustic soda pricing (alumina, pulp and paper, water treatment, and chemicals demand), and
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the value of chlorine outlets (EDC/VCM for PVC, chlorinated organics, epoxy, bleach, and hydrochloric acid).
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Olin's "value-first" strategy, introduced under former CEO Scott Sutton in 2020–2021 and continued by Ken Lane, keeps ECU operating rates matched to demand rather than chasing volume. The aim is to protect price.
Epoxy economics: Margins depend on the spread between epoxy resin prices and benzene, propylene, and chlorine input costs. The segment has been structurally challenged by Asian (notably Chinese) export pricing since 2023.
Winchester economics: The business is a mix of:
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cyclical, sentiment-driven commercial ammunition (sold to retailers, mass merchants, and distributors), and
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contracted, stable military ammunition and Lake City project revenue.
Value-chain position
Olin sits upstream. It converts salt, electricity, ethylene, benzene, and propylene into commodity and intermediate chemicals. Its formulated epoxy solutions and Winchester branded ammunition are the only meaningful downstream activities.
The Huntsman merger is explicitly designed to move the combined company downstream. Olin's chlorine and caustic would feed Huntsman's MDI/polyurethane, formulations, and advanced-materials chains (Olin/Huntsman merger release, 16 June 2026).
Customer types and end-markets
| Segment | Customer types | Principal end-markets |
|---|---|---|
| CAPV | Industrial chemical producers, PVC makers (VCM/EDC buyers such as Shintech), pulp and paper, alumina refiners, water-treatment utilities, bleach distributors | Construction (PVC), water treatment, pulp and paper, alumina, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, food processing, energy |
| Epoxy | Coatings formulators, composites makers, electronics laminators, wind-blade makers, civil engineering contractors | Protective and marine coatings, wind energy, electrical laminates, automotive, construction, adhesives |
| Winchester | Mass merchants, sporting goods retailers, distributors, U.S. Army and DoD, international militaries, law enforcement, industrial users | Hunting, recreational shooting, personal defence, military, law enforcement, construction (powder-actuated tool loads) |
Independent characterisation
Olin is best understood as a levered, high-fixed-cost commodity chemicals platform with an embedded defence and consumer franchise.
Cost advantage: Its key competitive advantage is position on the North American cost curve: advantaged ethane-based ethylene, low-cost power contracts, and scale. This advantage remained intact through 2025.
Product mix: Its product mix has been the problem. The chain is long on EDC, an export commodity, and long on epoxy, a market Asian capacity has commoditised.
Winchester's role: Winchester was the stabiliser in 2023–2024, earning about $238–256M of segment income. It became a drag in 2025 (segment income $67.7M) as commercial demand normalised and copper and propellant costs spiked.
Investment thesis: The thesis now hinges on three things: the cycle trough in chlor-vinyls and epoxy, Beyond250 self-help, and Huntsman merger execution.
Strategy
Stated strategic themes
The following are paraphrased from the FY2025 10-K, earnings calls, and the December 2024 Investor Day.
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"Value first" commercial approach. Operate the ECU asset base to protect price and margin rather than chase volume. Matching chlorine production to the highest-value derivatives remains the core CAPV philosophy.
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Optimise the core. Structural cost reduction through Beyond250. This includes right-sizing CAPV and Epoxy manufacturing, removing remnant costs from earlier asset closures, embedding a performance-driven culture, and continuous improvement.
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Broaden chlorine derivative optionality and grow vinyls participation. Reduce spot exposure to the merchant EDC market (the rationale for exiting BWA). Olin has also signalled a longer-term strategic assessment of the PVC market (Q4 2024 call).
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Epoxy self-help. Cut cash costs (down about 19% over three years per the Q4 2025 call), close uncompetitive capacity (Guarujá), restructure European supply (Stade), and grow formulated solutions.
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Winchester. Grow domestic and international military and Lake City project revenue. Defend commercial share against imports; management said imports met about 12% of U.S. demand in 2025 (Q4 2025 call). Run a parallel efficiency programme with a target of about $30M.
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Transformational combination with Huntsman (2026). Create a vertically integrated North American chemicals platform, pairing upstream chlor-alkali with downstream polyurethanes, formulations, and advanced materials.
Strategic initiatives register (last 24 months)
| Initiative | Announced | Scope | Targets / status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beyond250 structural cost programme | December 2024 Investor Day | Company-wide structural cost reduction | Target: more than $250M by 2028. Delivered $44M in 2025. Plans $100–120M of incremental savings in 2026; Q2 2026 call reiterated about $100M for 2026 and expects to exceed $250M by 2028. Includes about $80M Epoxy (2028), about $30M Winchester, and the CAPV remainder. |
| Stade, Germany key supplier contract | 2025 (effective 1 January 2026) | Restructured European epoxy cost base | Delivers more than half of the $80M Epoxy 2028 target. Credited for Epoxy's return to positive adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026. |
| Guarujá, Brazil epoxy plant closure | Q4 2025 | Exit of a subscale South American resin plant | Closed January 2026; about $10M annual benefit; $9.6M charge |
| BWA joint venture exit | 18 September 2025 | Unwind of the Mitsui EDC/caustic trading JV | Completed year-end 2025; non-equity collaboration with Mitsui continues |
| AMMO, Inc. asset acquisition | April 2025 | Brass shellcase capacity for Winchester | $55.8M cash; integrated into Winchester |
| Section 45V clean hydrogen credit | 2,025 | Monetisation of hydrogen co-product | About $32M credit recognised in CAPV (9M 2025 10-Q context); refund supports a near "cash-free" tax year in 2026 |
| Formulated solutions growth | Ongoing | Higher-value epoxy systems | Sales growth reported in every 2025 quarterly release |
| Short-term incentive redesign | 2,026 | Ties bonuses to site-level safety, reliability, and cost | Q2 2026 call |
| Huntsman merger of equals | 16 June 2026 | All-stock combination; renaming to OlinHuntsman | More than $400M of identified synergies and integration benefits. More than $300M is cost synergies, mostly within 24 months and all by end of year three; about $100M of raw-material benefits start in 2031 (per ChemXplore summary). Close targeted for H1 2027. |
Management guidance and medium-term targets
| Quarter | Adjusted EBITDA guidance | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $160–200M | $191.3M |
| Q3 2026 | $160–200M (30 July 2026) | Pending; includes about $20M residual VCM outage impact |
FY2026 modelling items (Q4 2025 release / call):
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capital spending about $200M,
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D&A about $475M,
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interest expense $180–185M.
Quarterly guidance:
Medium-term: structural savings of more than $250M by 2028. No formal post-merger EBITDA or EPS targets for OlinHuntsman were found beyond the synergy figures. The release states the combination should improve cash generation through the cycle.
Sustainability commitments
Olin publishes an annual sustainability report with greenhouse gas reduction targets.
Products & Services
Unless otherwise stated, product lists come from the FY2025 10-K, Item 1. Olin generally does not disclose list pricing. Prices are negotiated, contract- or index-linked for CAPV and Epoxy, and sold through wholesale price lists or government contract pricing for Winchester. "Launch" is shown only where disclosed.
Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls
| Product | Description and capabilities | Target customers / uses | Pricing model | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chlorine | Co-product of brine electrolysis; mostly consumed captively or by pipeline/railcar customers | EDC/VCM, chlorinated organics, epoxy (epichlorohydrin), water treatment, pharmaceuticals | Contract; ECU-based | Olin is among the world's largest chlorine producers (company positioning) |
| Caustic soda (sodium hydroxide) | Membrane- and diaphragm-cell grades; liquid and solid forms; exported by vessel | Alumina, pulp and paper, water treatment, chemicals, soaps, textiles | Index-linked contract and export spot | Q2 2026 export pricing strengthened on Middle East supply disruption |
| Ethylene dichloride (EDC) | Chlorine plus ethylene; largely an export commodity to merchant PVC producers | PVC producers worldwide | Spot/export-heavy; reduced under the post-BWA strategy | Olin is a top global merchant EDC supplier |
| Vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) | Cracked from EDC at Freeport; supplied under long-term contract | PVC producers, notably Shintech | Long-term supply contract | Subject of the Shintech dispute; Freeport VCM outage in May 2026 |
| Methyl chloride | Chlorinated methane | Silicones, agricultural chemicals | Contract | Part of the chlorinated organics portfolio |
| Methylene chloride | Chlorinated methane solvent | Pharmaceutical processing, chemical intermediates | Contract | Subject to U.S. EPA TSCA use restrictions |
| Chloroform | Chlorinated methane | HFC/HFO refrigerant feedstock, PTFE | Contract | — |
| Carbon tetrachloride | Chlorinated methane | HFO refrigerant and feedstock uses | Contract | — |
| Perchloroethylene | Chlorinated ethylene | Refrigerant feedstock (HFC-125), dry cleaning, degreasing | Contract | Subject to TSCA rulemaking |
| Trichloroethylene and vinylidene chloride | Chlorinated organics (listed in some descriptions) | Refrigerant intermediates, barrier resins | Contract | Not re-verified as current FY2025 products |
| Hydrochloric acid | Aqueous HCl by-product and merchant product | Oil and gas well stimulation, steel pickling, food processing, water treatment | Regional merchant | — |
| Hydrogen | Electrolysis co-product | Fuel, merchant hydrogen | Contract | Eligible for the IRA Section 45V clean hydrogen production credit, recognised in 2025 |
| Bleach (sodium hypochlorite) | Industrial-strength bleach, regionally produced and distributed | Water and wastewater treatment, pool, industrial sanitation | Regional contract | Built out through K.A. Steel and regional bleach plants |
| Potassium hydroxide (KOH) | Electrolysis of potassium chloride | Fertilisers, batteries, soaps, de-icers | Contract | — |
Epoxy
| Product family | Description and capabilities | Target customers / uses | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aromatics: cumene, phenol, acetone | Upstream precursors for bisphenol A (BPA) | Internal BPA production; merchant acetone and phenol | Integrated at Freeport and Stade |
| Bisphenol A (BPA) | Phenol plus acetone | Liquid epoxy resin feedstock; polycarbonate | Part of the "aromatics" chain |
| Allylics: allyl chloride, epichlorohydrin (ECH), glycerin | Chlorine-based epoxy building blocks; ECH is the key epoxide | Internal liquid epoxy resin (LER) production; merchant ECH | ECH integration is Olin's epoxy cost advantage |
| Liquid epoxy resins (LER) | Base-grade epoxy resins | Coatings, composites, adhesives, civil engineering | Most exposed to Asian import competition |
| Solid epoxy resins (SER) | Higher-molecular-weight resins | Powder coatings, can and coil coatings | — |
| Formulated solutions | Converted epoxy resins, curing agents, additives, and systems | Wind-blade composites, electrical laminates, protective coatings, flooring, automotive | Management's stated growth vector; sales grew in 2025 (Q4 2025 release) |
| Legacy Dow epoxy brand | D.E.R.™ / D.E.N.™ | Coatings and composites customers | Brand naming is not re-verified as current; Olin markets under the "Olin Epoxy" banner |
Winchester
| Product line | Description and capabilities | Target customers | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rimfire ammunition | .22 LR, .17 HMR, and similar | Recreational shooters, small-game hunters | Mass-merchant and retail channel |
| Centerfire pistol ammunition | Defence, target, and law enforcement loads | Consumers, law enforcement | Includes premium defensive lines (product names not re-verified) |
| Centerfire rifle ammunition | Hunting and target loads | Hunters, sport shooters | Premium hunting lines (product names not re-verified) |
| Shotshells | Lead and non-toxic (steel and bismuth) loads for upland, waterfowl, target, and defence | Hunters, clay shooters | Includes target loads such as AA (not re-verified) |
| Reloading components | Primers, brass, bullets | Handloaders | Brass capability expanded via the Manitowoc acquisition (2025) |
| Small-calibre military ammunition | 5.56mm, 7.62mm, .50 calibre, and next-generation 6.8mm (NGSW) | U.S. Army, DoD, allied militaries | Produced at Lake City and East Alton (Lake City operated since 2020) |
| Military project revenue | Contracted construction and modernisation at Lake City, including new production capability | U.S. Army | Recognised over time; a material growth line in FY2024–FY2026 |
| Law enforcement ammunition | Duty and training loads | Federal, state, and local agencies | — |
| Industrial cartridges | Powder-actuated tool loads and gauge loads | Construction (fastening), power and cement industries | Stable industrial niche |
| Clay targets | White Flyer brand; trap, skeet, and sporting clays | Gun clubs, ranges, retailers | Acquired in Q4 2023 |
| Brass shellcases | High-volume cartridge-case production | Internal and merchant | From AMMO, Inc. assets, Manitowoc, Wisconsin, April 2025 ($55.8M) |
Financial Narrative
Sources: 10-K filings for FY2021–FY2025, via StockAnalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence) and reconciled to 10-K and 8-K figures where available. EBITDA is derived as operating income plus D&A. Company-reported adjusted EBITDA is shown separately.
Income statement
Notes:
- FY2021 and FY2025 pre-tax income are derived from reported pre-tax margins. FY2022–FY2024 pre-tax figures are 10-K reported.
Company-reported adjusted EBITDA: FY2024 $873.9M; FY2025 $651.8M (FY2025 DEF 14A pay-versus-performance table; Q4 2025 release).
Margins (%)
Revenue CAGR FY2021–FY2025: −6.6% per year (derived: 6,781 ÷ 8,911, over four years).
Balance sheet
Notes:
- Short-term debt is current debt plus current lease liabilities. Long-term debt is long-term debt plus long-term lease liabilities.
Company-defined net debt: excludes leases. It was about $2.66B at year-end 2025, with a net debt/adjusted EBITDA ratio of 4.1x (Q4 2025 release). At 30 June 2026 it was about $2.85B (Q2 2026 release).
Tangible book value is negative: $(759)M at FY2025, because goodwill and intangibles exceed equity.
Cash flow
Capital return and acquisition detail:
Cumulative capital returned, FY2021–FY2025: $3.33B. That splits into buybacks of $2.68B and dividends of $0.53B.
FY2023 acquisitions: include White Flyer.
FY2025 acquisitions: are the AMMO, Inc. assets.
Ratios (derived from the 10-K data above)
Method notes:
- ROIC is operating income × (1 − 21% notional tax) ÷ (total debt + equity).
Interest coverage: FY2024 interest expense was $184.5M (FY2025 10-K segment note), giving EBIT/interest of about 1.9x. Guidance for 2026 interest expense is $180–185M, which implies EBIT/interest below 1x on FY2025 operating income.
Quarterly bridge: 2025–2026 (8-K releases; some figures derived)
Notes:
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Q3 2025 sales and adjusted EBITDA are derived as residuals from the full-year totals.
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Q4 2025 net income and EPS are derived to reconcile to the 10-K: the original release figure of $(85.7)M / $(0.75) less the after-tax Shintech charge.
Trailing twelve months to Q2 2026: sales about $6,703M; adjusted EBITDA about $567.6M (derived).
Commentary on trends, inflections, and drivers
Revenue. Revenue peaked at $9.38B in FY2022, when caustic soda prices hit record levels and epoxy demand was still elevated after the pandemic. FY2023 sales fell 27%:
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CAPV fell from $5.09B to $4.00B as caustic and EDC pricing normalised.
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Epoxy halved, from $2.69B to $1.33B, as Chinese exports flooded Europe and North America.
FY2024 declined a further 4%. FY2025 grew 3.7% on Epoxy volumes and Winchester military mix, but at sharply lower margins.
Margins. Gross margin compressed from 25.7% to 7.4% over four years. Four drivers stand out:
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Lower EDC pricing. EDC is the marginal chlorine sink.
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Persistent Epoxy losses, cumulatively $(219.5)M in segment losses over FY2023–FY2025.
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Winchester commodity cost inflation. Management flagged copper rising from about $4 to over $5.50 per pound in mid-2025 (Q2 2025 call), plus propellant cost increases.
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Unplanned outages: the 2023 VCM turnaround, Hurricane Beryl in 2024, and the 2026 VCM outage. These amplify fixed-cost deleverage in a high-fixed-cost asset base.
Earnings quality. FY2025 net loss of $(100.5)M includes three non-recurring items:
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the $75M Shintech charge,
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restructuring charges (including the $9.6M Guarujá closure), and
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an offsetting 45V hydrogen credit benefit.
Underlying FY2025 earnings power was about breakeven.
Cash generation is resilient relative to earnings. Free cash flow stayed positive in every year: $247.9M in FY2025. Working capital release helped in FY2025, with $158.1M from inventory and receivables. Q4 2025 alone produced $321.2M of operating cash flow.
H1 2026 operating cash flow was weaker, with Q1 2026 at $(48.6)M. TTM free cash flow fell to about $100.6M by Q2 2026. Management guided 2026 as a "cash-free tax year" due to the 45V refund (Q4 2025 call).
Capital allocation inflection. Buybacks fell from $1.35B (FY2022) to $50.5M (FY2025) and to $0 in Q1 2026. The $0.80 annual dividend (about $91M per year) has been maintained, but it now exceeds TTM free cash flow. Remaining repurchase authorisation was $1.9B at year-end 2025 (FY2025 10-K).
Leverage. Net debt/EBITDA rose from about 1.1x (FY2022) to about 4.5x (FY2025, derived; company basis 4.1x). The company reported 5.1x at Q1 2026 (Q1 2026 release). Leverage is now the key balance-sheet constraint and a strategic rationale for the all-stock Huntsman combination.
Book value erosion. Equity fell from $2.65B to $1.71B (Q2 2026) because buybacks and losses exceeded retained earnings. Tangible book value is negative.
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Revenue by Segment
| Segment | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
CAPV sales (USD Mn) | 3,995.1 | 3,630.2 | 3,684.4 |
Epoxy sales (USD Mn) | 1,329.2 | 1,226.3 | 1,371.8 |
Winchester sales (USD Mn) | 1,508.7 | 1,683.6 | 1,724.4 |
Total sales (USD Mn) | 6,833.0 | 6,540.1 | 6,780.6 |
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View Subscription PlansResults by Segment
| Segment | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
CAPV segment income (USD Mn) | 664.2 | 296.4 | 181.1 |
Epoxy segment income (USD Mn) | -31.0 | -85.0 | -103.5 |
Winchester segment income (USD Mn) | 255.6 | 237.9 | 67.7 |
Segment Margins & Growth (%)
| Segment | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
CAPV margin (%) | 16.6 | 8.2 | 4.9 |
Epoxy margin (%) | -2.3 | -6.9 | -7.5 |
Winchester margin (%) | 16.9 | 14.1 | 3.9 |
Segment Revenue
| Segment | FY2024 YoY growth (%) | FY2025 YoY growth (%) | FY2025 share of total sales (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
CAPV | -9.1 | 1.5 | 54.3 |
Epoxy | -7.7 | 11.9 | 20.2 |
Winchester | 11.6 | 2.4 | 25.4 |
Segment Revenue (FY2025 adjusted EBITDA margin (%, derived)–FY2025 adjusted EBITDA (USD Mn))
| Segment | FY2025 adjusted EBITDA (USD Mn) | FY2025 adjusted EBITDA margin (%, derived) |
|---|---|---|
CAPV | 679.7 | 18.4 |
Epoxy | -51.8 | -3.8 |
Winchester | 101.9 | 5.9 |
Total company (after corporate costs) | 651.8 | 9.6 |
Product Lines
| Product line | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Caustic soda (USD Mn) | 1,869 | 2,389 | 1,790 | 1,527 | 1,632 |
Chlorine, chlorine derivatives and other (USD Mn) | 2,272 | 2,696 | 2,205 | 2,103 | 2,052 |
Aromatics and allylics (USD Mn) | 1,451 | 1,339 | 525.1 | 512.2 | 564.7 |
Epoxy resins and formulated solutions (USD Mn) | 1,736 | 1,352 | 804.1 | 714.1 | 807.1 |
Winchester commercial (USD Mn) | 1,104 | 1,079 | 806.5 | 836.6 | 636.4 |
Winchester military and law enforcement (USD Mn) | 479.7 | 521.6 | 702.2 | 847 | 1,088 |
Revenue by Segment (Quarterly)
| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CAPV sales (USD Mn) | 924.5 | 979.5 | 924.0 | 856.4 | 756.9 | 819.5 |
Epoxy sales (USD Mn) | 331.7 | 331.2 | 349.6 | 359.3 | 355.6 | 422.1 |
Winchester sales (USD Mn) | 388.0 | 447.6 | 439.8 | 449.4 | 470.5 | 500.3 |
CAPV segment income (USD Mn) | 78.3 | 64.9 | 127.6 | -89.7 | -44.5 | 53.4 |
Epoxy segment income (USD Mn) | -28.4 | -23.7 | -32.2 | -19.2 | -2.9 | 16.0 |
Winchester segment income (USD Mn) | 22.8 | 25.0 | 19.3 | 0.6 | 15.2 | 28.1 |
Segment Overview
| Segment | Segment leadership |
|---|---|
CAPV | Deon Carter, President, Olin Chlor Alkali Products & Vinyls (named in the September 2025 BWA release) |
Income Statement and Per-Share Data
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (USD Mn) | 8,911 | 9,376 | 6,833 | 6,540 | 6,781 |
Gross profit (USD Mn) | 2,292 | 2,181 | 1,159 | 737.5 | 500.5 |
Operating income (USD Mn) | 1,911 | 1,829 | 776.7 | 355.8 | 133.3 |
Depreciation and amortisation (USD Mn) | 582.5 | 598.8 | 533.4 | 518.1 | 521.6 |
EBITDA, derived (USD Mn) | 2,493.5 | 2,427.8 | 1,310.1 | 873.9 | 654.9 |
Pre-tax income (USD Mn) | 1,539 | 1,676 | 559.3 | 141.7 | -161.4 |
Net income attributable to Olin (USD Mn) | 1,297 | 1,327 | 460.2 | 108.6 | -100.5 |
EPS basic (USD) | 8.15 | 9.16 | 3.66 | 0.92 | -0.88 |
EPS diluted (USD) | 7.96 | 8.94 | 3.57 | 0.91 | -0.88 |
Dividends per share (USD) | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
Margin Analysis (%)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin (%) | 25.7 | 23.3 | 17.0 | 11.3 | 7.4 |
Operating margin (%) | 21.4 | 19.5 | 11.4 | 5.4 | 2.0 |
EBITDA margin, derived (%) | 28.0 | 25.9 | 19.2 | 13.4 | 9.7 |
Pre-tax margin (%) | 17.3 | 17.9 | 8.2 | 2.2 | -2.4 |
Net margin (%) | 14.6 | 14.2 | 6.7 | 1.7 | -1.5 |
Balance Sheet and Share Count (M)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total assets (USD Mn) | 8,518 | 8,044 | 7,713 | 7,579 | 7,326 |
Cash and equivalents (USD Mn) | 180.5 | 194 | 170.3 | 175.6 | 167.6 |
Short-term debt incl. current lease (USD Mn) | 277.9 | 81.5 | 148.1 | 193.8 | 169.4 |
Long-term debt incl. LT leases (USD Mn) | 2,879.9 | 2,863.4 | 2,874.1 | 2,956.2 | 2,970.5 |
Total debt incl. leases (USD Mn) | 3,158 | 2,945 | 3,023 | 3,150 | 3,140 |
Net debt incl. leases (USD Mn) | 2,978 | 2,751 | 2,852 | 2,975 | 2,972 |
Total shareholders' equity (USD Mn) | 2,652 | 2,544 | 2,268 | 2,055 | 1,871 |
Goodwill (USD Mn) | 1,421 | 1,421 | 1,424 | 1,424 | 1,428 |
Other intangibles (USD Mn) | 1,394 | 1,322 | 1,308 | 1,254 | 1,170 |
Working capital (USD Mn) | 566.2 | 595 | 445 | 447.6 | 341.6 |
Shares outstanding, year-end (M) | 156.8 | 132.3 | 120.2 | 115.7 | 113.6 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating cash flow (USD Mn) | 1,741 | 1,922 | 974.3 | 503.2 | 474.2 |
Capital expenditures (USD Mn) | 200.6 | 236.9 | 236 | 195.1 | 226.3 |
Free cash flow (USD Mn) | 1,540 | 1,685 | 738.3 | 308.1 | 247.9 |
Dividends paid (USD Mn) | 127.8 | 116.2 | 101 | 94.2 | 91.6 |
Share repurchases (USD Mn) | 251.9 | 1,351 | 711.3 | 310.8 | 50.5 |
Net debt issued / (repaid) (USD Mn) | -1,103 | -201.1 | 85.9 | 169.7 | -11.2 |
Cash taxes paid (USD Mn) | 169.6 | 356.6 | 111.7 | 105.7 | 167.1 |
Cash acquisitions (USD Mn) | 0 | 0 | 63.9 | 0 | 55.8 |
Returns & Leverage Ratios (%) and Financial Ratios (x)
| Ratio | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ROE, on year-end equity (%) | 48.9 | 52.2 | 20.3 | 5.3 | -5.4 |
ROA, on year-end assets (%) | 15.2 | 16.5 | 6.0 | 1.4 | -1.4 |
ROIC, approximate (%) | 26.0 | 26.3 | 11.6 | 5.4 | 2.1 |
Current ratio (x) | 1.34 | 1.38 | 1.29 | 1.27 | 1.21 |
Debt / equity (x) | 1.19 | 1.16 | 1.33 | 1.53 | 1.68 |
Net debt / EBITDA, derived (x) | 1.19 | 1.13 | 2.18 | 3.40 | 4.54 |
Asset turnover (x) | 1.05 | 1.17 | 0.89 | 0.86 | 0.93 |
Days sales outstanding (days) | 42.6 | 33.2 | 42.2 | 51.0 | 41.0 |
Days inventory outstanding (days) | 47.9 | 47.8 | 55.2 | 51.8 | 45.6 |
Days payables outstanding (days) | 46.7 | 42.5 | 49.9 | 54.2 | 46.8 |
Cash conversion cycle (days) | 43.8 | 38.5 | 47.5 | 48.6 | 39.8 |
Income Statement and Per-Share Data (Quarterly)
| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sales (USD Mn) | 1,644.2 | 1,758.3 | 1,713.4 | 1,665.1 | 1,583.0 | 1,741.9 |
Adjusted EBITDA (USD Mn) | 185.6 | 176.1 | 222.4 | 67.7 | 86.2 | 191.3 |
Net income as reported (USD Mn) | 1.4 | -1.3 | 42.8 | -143.4 | -83.0 | -13.3 |
Diluted EPS (USD) | 0.01 | -0.01 | 0.37 | -1.26 | -0.73 | -0.12 |
Revenue by Region
| Region | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
United States (USD Mn) | 5,270 | 5,720 | 4,599.4 | 4,657.4 | 4,585.9 |
Europe (USD Mn) | 1,680 | 1,550 | 603.7 | 592.3 | 647.4 |
Other foreign (USD Mn) | 1,960 | 2,110 | 1,629.9 | 1,290.4 | 1,547.5 |
Geographic Revenue
| Region | FY2024 YoY (%) | FY2025 YoY (%) | FY2025 share of sales (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
United States | 1.3 | -1.5 | 67.6 |
Europe | -1.9 | 9.3 | 9.5 |
Other foreign | -20.8 | 19.9 | 22.8 |
Revenue by Region (FY2023–FY2025)
| Segment × region | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
CAPV – United States (USD Mn) | 2,700.0 | 2,561.4 | 2,529.1 |
CAPV – Europe (USD Mn) | 207.9 | 184.1 | 160.0 |
CAPV – Other foreign (USD Mn) | 1,087.2 | 884.7 | 995.3 |
Epoxy – United States (USD Mn) | 562.8 | 606.8 | 559.8 |
Epoxy – Europe (USD Mn) | 338.5 | 312.5 | 391.5 |
Epoxy – Other foreign (USD Mn) | 427.9 | 307.0 | 420.5 |
Winchester – United States (USD Mn) | 1,336.6 | 1,489.2 | 1,497.0 |
Winchester – Europe (USD Mn) | 57.3 | 95.7 | 95.9 |
Winchester – Other foreign (USD Mn) | 114.8 | 98.7 | 131.7 |
Region Overview
| Region | Prior year (USD Mn) | Latest year (USD Mn) |
|---|---|---|
United States | 2,132.8 | 1,992.2 |
Foreign | 195.6 | 204.7 |
Share Price & Returns
| Reference point | OLN price (USD) | Source |
|---|---|---|
Year-end 2021 | about 51.6 | Derived from 1.55% dividend yield and $0.80 dividend |
Year-end 2022 | about 48.2 | Derived from 1.66% yield |
Year-end 2023 | about 50.0 | Derived from 1.60% yield |
30 September 2024 | 47.05 | 13F-implied quarter-end price |
Year-end 2024 | about 32.0 | 13F-implied quarter-end price |
30 September 2025 | 24.20 | 13F-implied quarter-end price |
Year-end 2025 | about 20.96 | 13F-implied quarter-end price |
31 March 2026 | 24.35 | 13F-implied quarter-end price |
5 October 2026 | 16.03 | StockAnalysis.com |
Period (to early October 2026) | Approximate share price return (%) | — |
1 year (from 30 September 2025) | -34 | — |
2 years (from 30 September 2024) | -66 | — |
From year-end 2023 (about 2.75 years) | -68 | — |
From year-end 2021 (about 4.75 years) | -69 | — |
Valuation Multiples
| Multiple | OLN | Basis |
|---|---|---|
Market cap (USD Bn) | about 1.83 | $16.03 × 114.0M shares |
Enterprise value (USD Bn) | about 4.7 | Market cap + company net debt about $2.85B (excludes NCI and pension) |
P/E (TTM) | n/m | TTM net loss $(196.9)M |
Forward P/E | about 90x | StockAnalysis, 5 October 2026 |
EV / TTM adjusted EBITDA | about 8.3x | TTM adjusted EBITDA about $568M (derived) |
EV / Sales (TTM) | about 0.70x | TTM sales $6,703M |
P/S | about 0.27x | StockAnalysis |
P/B | about 1.07x | Equity $1,711M (Q2 2026) |
P/FCF (TTM) | about 18x | StockAnalysis |
Dividend yield | about 5.0% | $0.80 ÷ $16.03 |
Firm Details
| Firm | Rating | Price target (USD) | Date / context |
|---|---|---|---|
BofA Securities | Underperform (double downgrade) | — | Mid-2026; growth and merger concerns |
Deutsche Bank | Hold | 20 (from 30) | 25 August 2026 |
Goldman Sachs (Duffy Fischer) | Neutral | 20 (from 24) | 2026 |
RBC Capital | Sector Perform | 20 (from 24) | 2026 |
UBS | Neutral | 21 (from 23) | Early August 2026 |
Wells Fargo | Equal Weight (downgraded from Overweight) | 20 (from 25) | August 2026 |
Mizuho (Eldain Rodriguez) | Neutral | 24 (from 23); later cut to 23 (from 26) | 2026 (sequence per StockAnalysis feed) |
JPMorgan | Neutral | 25 (from 26) | 2026 |
BMO Capital | Market Perform | 30 | June 2026 (merger announcement) |
Capital Markets
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
Remaining authorisation | About $1.9B (31 December 2025), under the 2022 programme plus earlier programmes |
FY2025 repurchases | $50.5M |
Share count trend | Down from 156.8M (FY2021) to 114.0M (Q2 2026), −27% |
Total debt incl. leases | $3,408M (30 June 2026); long-term debt $3,029M |
Liquidity | About $1.0B at year-end 2025 (cash $167.6M plus revolver); about $1.3B at 30 September 2025 |
2025 refinancing | $2,755M of long-term debt issued and $2,766M repaid (cash flow statement) |
2026 credit facility | Credit facility amendment or refinancing disclosed as a subsequent event in the FY2025 10-K |
Credit Ratings
| Agency | Long-term rating | Outlook | Date of last verified action |
|---|---|---|---|
Fitch Ratings | BBB- | Stable | Affirmed 14 March 2024 |
Moody's | Ba1 | Stable | Affirmed 24 June 2024 |
S&P Global | BB+ | Stable (revised from Positive) | Affirmed 8 August 2024 |
Analyst Conclusions
Management guidance
Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA: $160–200M (30 July 2026).
-
Chemicals results comparable to Q2 2026.
-
Reduced VCM operating rates and weaker EDC pricing offset by stronger caustic soda volumes.
-
About $20M residual VCM outage impact, with full rates resuming late in the quarter.
FY2026 modelling: - capex about $200M,
-
D&A about $475M,
-
interest $180–185M,
-
near cash-free tax year (45V refund),
-
Beyond250 incremental savings about $100–120M.
H1 2026 actual adjusted EBITDA: $277.5M. If Q3 lands at the midpoint and Q4 shows seasonal softness, implied FY2026 adjusted EBITDA is roughly $580–680M (analyst range, not company guidance).
Consensus expectations
The StockAnalysis forward P/E of about 90x implies consensus forward EPS of only about $0.18, consistent with trough earnings expectations.
Bull case
-
Self-help plus cycle. Beyond250 adds $100–120M in 2026 and more than $250M by 2028, on top of trough EBITDA of about $570–650M. Any ECU recovery toward FY2023 levels (derived EBITDA of $1.31B) would bring leverage back toward about 2x without equity issuance.
-
Huntsman integration value. More than $300M of cost synergies within about 24 months, capitalised at even 6x, is worth about $1.8B. That roughly equals Olin's entire current market cap. The combined company gains chlorine optionality and a downstream earnings mix.
-
Epoxy and Winchester inflection is already visible. Q2 2026 Epoxy segment income was $16.0M versus a $(23.7)M loss. Winchester sales rose 12% to $500.3M. Military and law enforcement revenue reached $1.09B (FY2025).
Bear case
-
Leverage and trough duration. At 5.1x net debt/EBITDA (Q1 2026) and $180–185M of annual interest, a prolonged chlor-vinyl downturn erodes equity value. Equity has already fallen from $2.65B to $1.71B, and the dividend exceeds TTM free cash flow.
-
Execution and reliability. Three major outage episodes in four years (2023 VCM, 2024 Beryl, 2026 VCM), plus $111M of litigation charges in 2025–2026, undermine confidence that a larger, more complex OlinHuntsman can be run reliably.
-
Merger risk and structural headwinds. The fixed exchange ratio, regulatory timing (H1 2027), HQ relocation, and the cultural integration of two founder-legacy companies coincide with structural Asian epoxy and PVC overcapacity. Sell-side downgrades (BofA, Wells Fargo) reflect this.
Key catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)
| Timing | Catalyst / monitorable |
|---|---|
| Late October 2026 | Q3 2026 results against the $160–200M guide; VCM restart confirmation |
| Q4 2026 – Q1 2027 | Regulatory approvals for the Huntsman merger (HSR and international antitrust) |
| January–February 2027 | FY2026 results; FY2027 guidance; Beyond250 progress (target $100–120M in 2026) |
| H1 2027 | Merger close, renaming to OlinHuntsman, and first combined synergy reporting |
| Ongoing | Caustic soda and EDC export pricing; epoxy pricing in Europe and Asia; copper and propellant costs |
| Ongoing | Lake City project revenue and military orders; commercial ammunition retail sell-through |
| Ongoing | Credit rating agency actions; dividend policy of the combined company |
| Ongoing | Shintech appeal or post-trial outcome; any further legacy litigation charges |
Analyst verdict
Olin enters late 2026 at a cyclical and strategic crossroads. Its core asset, a cost-advantaged North American chlor-alkali base, remains intact. CAPV produced about $680M of adjusted EBITDA in FY2025 despite trough EDC pricing and a $75M litigation charge.
However, the group's earnings power has collapsed from about $2.4B of EBITDA (FY2022) to roughly $570–650M. The causes are a combination of cyclical (chlor-vinyls), structural (Asian epoxy overcapacity), and self-inflicted (outages, litigation) factors. Leverage has climbed to about 5x, equity has eroded, and the dividend is not covered by trailing free cash flow.
Management's response is coherent and partly evidenced:
-
Beyond250 is delivering.
-
Epoxy has swung to segment profit on cost resets rather than market recovery.
-
Winchester's military pivot is cushioning commercial weakness.
-
Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $191.3M landed at the top of guidance despite a $40M outage hit.
The Huntsman merger is the defining variable. Strategically, it addresses Olin's chronic problem: too many chlorine molecules sold as low-value merchant EDC. Routing them into Huntsman's MDI and formulations chain could raise through-cycle value capture. The more than $300M cost synergy figure is material relative to a market cap of about $1.8B. The all-stock structure avoids adding debt. Shareholder approval (about 97%) was emphatic.
The counterweights are significant. Integration of two complex, cyclical businesses during a downturn is hard. Regulatory timing extends to H1 2027. The combined company's leverage and rating trajectory are not yet clear. Sell-side sentiment has turned cautious, with price targets clustered around $20–24 against a share price of about $16.
Net assessment: At about 0.7x EV/sales and about 1.1x book, OLN is priced for a prolonged trough. The stock offers asymmetric upside if three things happen together:
-
ECU pricing normalises even partially,
-
Beyond250 hits $250M or more, and
-
merger synergies are delivered on schedule.
Downside is anchored by asset replacement value and positive free cash flow, but leverage leaves little margin for further operational missteps.
Stance: Neutral with positive skew. Key proof points are Q3–Q4 2026 operating reliability and regulatory clearance of the Huntsman combination.
End of dossier. All figures are USD and fiscal-year based (FY = calendar year) unless otherwise stated.
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View Subscription PlansExecutive Leadership
Executive Leadership Team
| Name | Title | Tenure | Prior roles / background | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Kenneth (Ken) T. Lane | President and CEO; Director | Since 18 March 2024 | — | Designated CEO of OlinHuntsman on merger close. |
Todd A. Slater | Senior Vice President and CFO | — | Long-tenured Olin finance executive | Designated Chief Integration Officer of OlinHuntsman, reporting to the CEO |
Deon Carter | President, Chlor Alkali Products & Vinyls | — | — | Sold 6,500 shares on 25 February 2026 at about $23.73 (insider filing via Simply Wall St) |
Inchan Hwang | Vice President, Deputy General Counsel and Secretary | — | — | Signatory on the 30 July 2026 8-K |
Steve Keenan | Director, Investor Relations | — | — | IR contact on all 2026 releases |
Directors' Remuneration
| Item | FY2025 (USD) |
|---|---|
Ken Lane — Summary Compensation Table total | 9,798,424 |
Ken Lane — compensation actually paid (CAP) | 3,488,594 |
Average SCT total, other NEOs | 2,996,762 |
Average CAP, other NEOs | 2,059,328 |
Board of Directors
| Director | Role / committee notes | Background |
|---|---|---|
William H. Weideman | Independent Chairman since 16 February 2024 (Lead Director from April 2021) | Former Dow EVP and CFO (2010–2015); joined the Olin board in 2015 as a Dow designee. |
Kenneth T. Lane | Director; President and CEO | See above |
Beverley A. Babcock | Independent director | Global finance, accounting, and treasury expertise; also a director of Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies (Wabtec) and the Forté Foundation |
C. Robert Bunch | Independent director | Governance and executive leadership; formerly a director of Pioneer Drilling (2004–2008) |
Matthew S. Darnall | Independent director | Investment banking, M&A, and capital structure expertise |
Earl L. Shipp | Independent director | Chemical industry manufacturing and operations expertise |
Edward M. Daly | Independent director (since 4 March 2025) | Former U.S. Army Materiel Command leader; West Point graduate; MBA (Gonzaga); U.S. Army War College. Relevant to Winchester and Lake City oversight. |
Board & Management Changes
| Date | Change |
|---|---|
1 December 2023 | CEO transition plan announced: Scott Sutton (CEO since 2020) to step down |
16 February 2024 | Sutton steps down as Executive Chairman; Weideman becomes Chairman |
18 March 2024 | Ken Lane appointed President, CEO, and Director |
4 March 2025 | Edward M. Daly joins the board |
| 2026 | Board reduced from nine nominees (2025 proxy) to eight nominees (2026 proxy) |
16 June 2026 | Post-merger leadership slate announced (Lane CEO; Huntsman Chairman; Lister CFO; Slater Chief Integration Officer) |
Major Shareholders
| Rank | Holder | Shares (M) | Stake (%) | Source / date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hotchkis and Wiley Capital Management | 15.08 | 13.2 | 13F, 31 March 2026 |
| 2 | BlackRock, Inc. (all entities) | 11.5 | 10.1 | 13F, Q1 2026 (BlackRock Institutional Trust alone: 9.67M, 8.5%) |
| 3 | The Vanguard Group (all entities) | about 11.3 | about 9.9 | 13F, Q4 2025. Vanguard restructured its filings in 2026; Vanguard Capital Management filed a 13G for 5.89M shares (5.17%) on 30 April 2026. |
| 4 | Dimensional Fund Advisors | 5.63 | 4.9 | 13F, 31 March 2026 |
| 5 | Lazard Asset Management | 5.19 | 4.6 | 13F, 31 March 2026 |
| 6 | Fuller & Thaler Asset Management | 5.0 | 4.4 | 13F, Q1 2026 |
| 7 | Aristotle Capital Management | 5.01 | 4.4 | Simply Wall St (date not specified) |
| 8 | State Street | 4.74 | 4.2 | 13F, Q4 2025 |
| 9 | Pzena Investment Management | 4.51 | 4.0 | 13F, Q4 2025 |
| 10 | Yacktman Asset Management | 3.92 | 3.4 | 13F, Q4 2025 |
Competitive Landscape
Competitors by Segment
| Segment | Competitor | Positioning versus Olin |
|---|---|---|
CAPV | Westlake Corporation (NYSE: WLK) | Largest integrated North American chlor-vinyl and PVC producer; more downstream (PVC, building products) than Olin |
CAPV | — | Major U.S. chlor-alkali, caustic, and VCM/PVC producer; low-cost Gulf Coast assets |
CAPV | Shin-Etsu Chemical / Shintech | World's largest PVC producer; Olin's VCM customer and litigation counterparty; building its own integration |
CAPV | Formosa Plastics USA | Integrated chlor-vinyls at Point Comfort, Texas, and Baton Rouge |
CAPV | Orbia (Vestolit), INEOS Inovyn, Covestro (chlor-alkali for captive use) | Global and European chlor-vinyl competitors in caustic and EDC export markets |
Epoxy | Westlake Epoxy (ex-Hexion epoxy, acquired 2022) | Closest Western integrated epoxy peer |
Epoxy | Nan Ya Plastics (Taiwan), Kukdo Chemical (Korea), Chang Chun (Taiwan), Chinese producers (various) | Low-cost Asian LER exporters driving global price pressure |
Epoxy | Huntsman Advanced Materials, Aditya Birla Chemicals (Advanced Materials) | Formulated epoxy systems competitors; Huntsman becomes a merger partner |
Winchester | CSG / The Kinetic Group (Federal, Remington, CCI, Speer; acquired from Vista Outdoor in 2024) | Largest U.S. commercial ammunition competitor |
Winchester | Hornady (private), Sierra, Sellier & Bellot (CSG), Fiocchi (CSG) | Premium and imported commercial ammunition; imports met about 12% of U.S. demand in 2025 |
Winchester | General Dynamics OTS, Nammo, Northrop Grumman | Military small- and medium-calibre ammunition competitors |
Peer Comparison FY2025
| Company | Revenue (USD Bn) | Revenue growth (%) | Operating / EBITDA margin | Source caveats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Olin (FY2025) | 6.78 | +3.7 | Operating 2.0%; adjusted EBITDA 9.6% | 10-K |
Westlake (FY2024) | about 12.1 | — | — | — |
Huntsman (FY2025, derived) | about 5.7 | — | — | Derived from combined $12.5B less Olin $6.78B |
OxyChem (FY2024) | about 4.9 (approximate) | — | — | — |
