Pampa Energia SA

Income statement

Sources: FY2024–FY2025 revenue, operating income, income tax, net income and EPS per ADR from company FY2025 earnings release (6-K, 2 Mar 2026). FY2021–FY2023 and gross profit/EBITDA from stockanalysis.com and TipRanks aggregators (IFRS). FY2021 EPS derived (net income ÷ weighted ADS); TipRanks shows 6.25, which is inconsistent with its own net income and share count — discrepancy flagged. Stockanalysis shows FY2023 operating income of 394 vs TipRanks 424 (difference in classification of other operating items). FY2025 gross profit from Weiss aggregator (624.6). Pampa has not paid cash dividends in this period; management stated no dividends are planned for 2026 (Bloomberg Línea, Mar 2026).

Revenue CAGR FY2021–FY2025: 7.3% (USD).

Adjusted EBITDA (company non-IFRS, incl. affiliates at ownership)

FY2025 per corporate presentation (Mar 2026: "EBITDA … 1,009") and Q4 2025 call (EBITDA surpassed US$1 billion, +8%). FY2024 derived from the 8% growth rate and corroborated by LTM Mar-2025 of US$969 million; treat as derived.

Quarterly trajectory (USD million)

Sources: company releases and call summaries. Q1 2025 adjusted EBITDA derived (Q1 2026 US$325 million = +48% YoY; quarterly sum reconciles to FY2025 US$1,009 million). Q2 2025 capex derived from Q2 2026 "-21% YoY". Q4 2025 capex shown as US$371 million on the call versus US$343 million in Bloomberg Línea — discrepancy flagged. LTM adjusted EBITDA at Q2 2026 ≈ US$1,292 million (derived).

Balance sheet

Source: cmoney.tw aggregator of SEC filings (balance sheet lines); net debt per FY2025 release.

Interim balance sheet: at 30 Jun 2026 gross financial debt US$2.6 billion; cash and financial assets US$1,281 million; net debt US$1,319 million; net leverage 1.4x LTM adjusted EBITDA; average funding cost 7.3% (Q2 26 release; Forbes Argentina). At 31 Mar 2026 total assets were US$7,016 million, cash US$236 million and net debt ~US$1.2 billion.

Cash flow

Q1 2026 net cash used in investing US$203 million; financing US$-53 million (Q1 26 release). FCF: Q3 2025 +US$6 million; Q2 2026 −US$128 million (company). FY2025 capex of US$1.4 billion was a record, roughly half for Rincón de Aranda (Q4 2025 call); an aggregator cites ~US$1.1 billion — basis differs; the company figure is preferred.

Commentary on trends and inflections

Revenue. USD revenue grew at a 7.3% CAGR from FY2021 to FY2025, but the path was uneven: FY2022 benefited from post-COVID commodity prices; FY2023 dipped on lower gas and petrochemical prices; FY2024–FY2025 resumed modest growth as Rincón de Aranda oil began contributing and power remuneration improved. The real inflection is in 2026: H1 2026 sales of US$1,319 million were up 47% on H1 2025 (US$900 million), driven by oil volumes (+502% YoY in Q1, +194% in Q2), the November 2025 WEM spot-pricing framework and B2B PPA sales.

Margins. IFRS gross margin compressed from ~37% to ~31% between FY2022 and FY2025 as D&A rose (US$205 million in FY2021 to US$397 million in FY2025, per stockanalysis) with the capex cycle, and as lower-margin petrochemicals and regulated gas prices weighed. Adjusted EBITDA margin re-expanded to 43–44% in Q3 2025 and Q2 2026.

Net income volatility. Net income is heavily driven by deferred tax effects arising from the gap between peso inflation and devaluation (USD functional currency, peso tax base). FY2024 net income of US$619 million included a US$121 million tax benefit; FY2025 carried a US$204 million charge despite higher pre-tax income. Investors should anchor on adjusted EBITDA and cash flow rather than EPS.

Balance sheet. Leverage has deliberately risen from a historically low base (0.8x at YE2025) to 1.4x by June 2026 to fund Rincón de Aranda; management's earlier guidance was to keep leverage around 1.1–1.3x. Liquidity is strong (US$1.3 billion cash at June 2026) after the US$500 million 2037 reopening, and the maturity wall is long-dated (average life ~8 years).

Management guidance (2026–2027)

Capex ~US$1.0 billion in 2026 falling to ~US$700 million in 2027 (ex-urea); RdA at 28 kbpd by YE2026 and 45 kbpd in 2027; power EBITDA ~US$600 million in 2026 with ~US$100 million upside in 2027; gas plateau 20–22 mcm/d; FLNG Hilli start-up 2027; urea completion YE2029.

Consensus expectations

Q3 2026 consensus EPS ~US$2.22/ADS and revenue ~US$740 million. Implied run-rate: H1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of US$740 million suggests FY2026 comfortably above US$1.4 billion if H2 tracks guidance (analyst inference, not company guidance).

Bull case

1. Oil growth is de-risked and visible. RdA nearly doubles from 23.4 kbpd to 45 kbpd by 2027 with RIGI-backed plateau extension, pushing Oil & Gas well beyond 58% of EBITDA and enabling FCF inflection as capex drops ~30% in 2027.

2. Power is structurally re-rated. Deregulation lifted Q2 2026 power EBITDA 39% YoY; integration with own gas locks in spreads; ~US$600–700 million power EBITDA supports deleveraging.

3. Cheap valuation with SOTP support. ~4.8x EV/EBITDA with TGS and Transener stakes, LNG and urea optionality not fully priced; sovereign and corporate upgrades compress cost of equity.

Bear case

1. Leverage and FCF strain. Net debt rose 65% in six months to US$1.3 billion; urea (US$2.7 billion) plus FLNG/pipeline contributions could keep FCF negative into 2028.

2. Policy reversibility. Earnings gains rest on WEM deregulation and RIGI; an electoral shift could reintroduce price caps or export restrictions.

3. Commodity and contract headwinds. Hedges capping oil upside, Brent around the low-US$60s, and PPA roll-offs from 2028 could flatten EBITDA just as project spending peaks.

Catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)

Analyst verdict

Pampa Energía has executed one of the cleaner strategic pivots in Latin American energy. In eighteen months it converted Rincón de Aranda from a development concept into a 23 kbpd oil asset, lifted group production to a record 107.5 kboe/d, and — helped by Argentina's power-market deregulation — grew quarterly adjusted EBITDA from US$237 million to US$415 million. The integration of its own gas into its own combined cycles is a genuine structural advantage that peers without both businesses cannot replicate, and the infrastructure stakes in TGS and Transener provide a tangible valuation floor.

The investment debate is therefore less about operating quality than about capital intensity and country risk. Pampa is simultaneously funding the completion of RdA, its share of an LNG export chain and the largest urea plant in Latin America. Net debt has already climbed to 1.4x EBITDA, free cash flow is negative, and no dividends are planned. The company's earnings uplift also leans on regulatory reforms whose durability depends on Argentine politics, and its oil hedges limit upside participation.

On balance, the evidence favours a constructive view. At roughly 4.8x EV/LTM adjusted EBITDA and ~14x trailing earnings, the market appears to price Pampa as a cyclical Argentine utility rather than as a company about to add ~20 kbpd of export-priced oil, LNG exposure from 2027 and fertiliser exposure from 2029. The 2027 capex step-down is the key inflection: if RdA reaches 45 kbpd on schedule and power EBITDA holds near US$600–700 million, Pampa should generate meaningful free cash flow and deleverage well before the urea plant's peak spending. The principal risks — policy reversal, Brent weakness and project execution — are real but are the same risks that create the valuation discount. Investors with tolerance for Argentine sovereign volatility have an attractive risk-reward; more conservative holders should wait for evidence of the FCF turn in FY2027 guidance.

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Primary sources: Pampa Energía FY2025 earnings release and reserves report (6-K, 2 Mar 2026); Form 20-F FY2025 (9 Apr 2026); Q1 2026 release (6 May 2026) and call transcript; Q2 2026 release (4 Aug 2026), 6-K interim financial statements and call; Q3–Q4 2025 call transcripts; corporate presentations (Dec 2025, Mar 2026, May 2026, ri.pampa.com); ri.pampa.com governance pages and IR releases (24 Dec 2024; SESA FID). Secondary: Bloomberg Línea, Forbes Argentina, Perfil, EconoJournal, Reporte Minero, LNG Prime, Pulse 2.0, El Litoral, FIX SCR rating report (18 Aug 2026), Genneia F-1 (SEC), Golar LNG statements, Stock Titan, Quartr, MarketBeat, InsiderTrades, GlobalData, Zonebourse, Vista Energy FY2025 results, Central Puerto 6-K filings. Aggregators (stockanalysis.com, TipRanks, Weiss Ratings, cmoney, Google Finance, digrin, Earnings Whispers, GuruFocus, DitchCarbon) used where flagged.