Resolute Mining Limited

Sources: FY2022 Appendix 4E (FY2022 and FY2021 comparatives); FY2024 Appendix 4E (FY2023 comparatives); FY2025 Appendix 4E (FY2025 and audited FY2024 comparatives); TipRanks/S&P standardised data where noted. FY2021 figures are as presented in the FY2022 report and reflect Bibiani's classification as a discontinued operation.

Income statement

Notes:

FY2021 D&A: comes from TipRanks/S&P.

FY2024 audit adjustment: The unaudited FY2024 4E reported PBT US$27.4m, NPAT −US$13.3m, attributable −US$21.5m, EBITDA US$320.4m and income tax US$40.7m. The audited comparatives in the FY2025 4E show PBT US$19.1m, NPAT −US$26.0m, attributable −US$28.3m, EBITDA US$319.5m and income tax US$45.1m. The audited figures are used here.

FY2025 EBITDA: The Q4 2025 call cited about US$383m against US$391.6m in the 4E.

Dividends: No dividend was declared for FY2022, FY2024 or FY2025 per the respective 4Es. For FY2021 and FY2023, no dividend is disclosed in the filings reviewed. Dividends were paid only to non-controlling interests (US$6.9m cash in FY2024).

Operating income: IFRS operating income is not a reported line, so the S&P standardised series is shown. Because the company's EBITDA definition excludes certain indirect-tax and settlement items, EBITDA minus D&A overstates operating profit, especially in FY2024.

Margin profile and growth

All values derived. Revenue CAGR FY2021–FY2025 (derived) is 12.0% a year.

Operating drivers

Notes: FY2024 group poured is derived from Syama 215,934 oz plus Mako 123,935 oz. FY2023 production is about 332 koz (derived from FY2024 growth rates) but is not shown in the chartable row. Group AISC for FY2024 is per Miningmx. FY2025 sold ounces were 18.7 koz below poured ounces because 31,242 oz of bullion was held at year-end, valued at US$134.6m.

Commentary — income statement. Over five years, the P&L moved from distress to strong profitability, but almost entirely because of price, not volume. Gold poured fell from a peak of about 354 koz (FY2022) to about 277 koz (FY2025), a 22% decline. Over the same period the realised price rose 84% from US$1,819/oz to US$3,338/oz. FY2021 was the trough: a US$367.5m statutory loss driven by impairments and the Bibiani write-down and disposal (S&P records "other expenses" of −US$311m). FY2022 was a recapitalisation year (US$110m placement). FY2023 was the first clean statutory profit (attributable US$65.6m). FY2024 should have been a breakout year, with EBITDA nearly doubling to US$319.5m, but it was wiped out at the statutory line by the Mali Protocol, which cut PBT to US$19.1m and left an attributable loss. FY2025 is the inflection. PBT of US$211.9m was 11x FY2024, and the gross margin from operations reached 35%, the highest in the period. Mako's stockpile economics and lower Syama operating costs offset a 23% fall in ounces sold. The effective tax rate in FY2025 was about 40% (derived), elevated by Mako's lapsed exoneration and Malian taxes.

Balance sheet

Notes:

• A negative net-debt value means net cash.

FY2021: total assets and equity are restated per the FY2022 4E (derecognition of a US$6.9m Syama tax asset).

FY2022 borrowings: are balance-sheet totals (US$95.6m current plus US$29.5m non-current); the narrative states US$125.6m.

FY2023 borrowings: are the US$25.2m term loan plus the US$46.2m overdraft.

FY2024 audit adjustment: The FY2024 4E (unaudited) shows total assets US$833.7m, equity US$492.1m and overdraft US$34.8m. Audited FY2025 comparatives are used here.

FY2025 net cash reconciliation: The components (62.6 + 68.2 + 134.6 − 57.8) sum to about US$207.6m against the reported US$209.1m. The difference is unexplained in the 4E.

Goodwill and intangibles: are not separately disclosed in the sources reviewed. The balance sheet is dominated by mine properties and PP&E. Following the Doropo acquisition, deferred consideration payable to AngloGold Ashanti was US$136.8m at 31 Dec 2025 (US$75.3m current, US$61.5m non-current). This is debt-like but excluded from company net cash.

Commentary — balance sheet. Resolute has gone from a geared balance sheet (FY2021 net debt US$228.8m, 1.8x EBITDA) to a strong net-cash position. Net cash was US$209.1m at FY2025 and US$317.4m at 30 Jun 2026. It funded the US$159.9m Mali settlement in FY2024 without raising equity. Three nuances matter:

1. Bullion is a material component. About US$135m at FY2025 and US$47m at Q2 2026 was held as unsold bullion, so the cash balance is partly timing-dependent.

2. Debt-like items sit outside "net cash". These are the AngloGold deferred consideration (US$136.8m) and recoverable VAT balances in Mali and Senegal. The company described VAT recovery as a source of cash leakage, with US$66m of VAT outflows in FY2025.

3. Working capital is thin. It was about US$4m at FY2025, so liquidity depends on overdraft facilities (about US$100m available in Mali and Senegal) and new Côte d'Ivoire bank lines.

Cash flow

Notes:

FY2024 OCF: is US$113.1m unaudited and US$115.0m audited, and includes the US$159.9m Mali settlement payments.

FY2024 capex: of US$104.8m is from the audited breakdown (PP&E 72.7, development 23.7, evaluation 8.4); the unaudited derivation was US$102.9m.

FY2025 capex: splits as PP&E 70.0, development 18.6 and evaluation/exploration 30.4.

Non-statutory OCF: Management's call cites a "pre-capex, pre-working-capital" FY2025 operating cash flow of about US$314m. The statutory figure is US$226.6m.

Buybacks: None were disclosed in the filings reviewed.

H1 2026 interim snapshot (HY2026 report, released 20 Aug 2026)

H1 2025 EBITDA is derived from the reported +42% growth rate. Investor commentary also cites H1 2026 EBITDA of US$331m and net operating cash flow of US$197–226m, versus the HY report figures used here.

Commentary — cash flow. Free cash flow was negligible or negative through FY2021–FY2024 (cumulative about US$63m over four years). It then reached US$107.6m in FY2025 and accelerated in H1 2026, when OCF alone was US$277.6m. The step-change creates real funding capacity for Doropo. The sustainability of FCF is now the key question, given the following pressures:

• FY2026 capex guidance of US$310–360m, roughly 3x FY2025, including US$170–190m for Doropo.

• Syama volumes cut to 150–160 koz.

• AISC rising to US$2,250–2,350/oz.

At a US$4,000/oz gold price, the guided group margin is about US$1,700/oz on about 215 koz. That implies roughly US$365m of AISC-level margin before growth capex, tax and minority distributions, which suggests FY2026 FCF after growth capex will be modest. Q3 2026 results, due late October 2026, will be the first test.

Ratio analysis

All ratios are derived from the tables above. ROIC is not computed, because a consistent invested-capital series (including deferred consideration and NCI) is not available from the sources reviewed. The cash conversion cycle is not meaningful for a spot-sale bullion producer and is not disclosed.

Ratio commentary. ROE turned firmly positive in FY2025 (15.7%) and is tracking higher in H1 2026 (annualised attributable profit of about US$256m against FY2025 attributable equity of US$701.8m implies more than 30%, derived). The balance sheet is effectively unlevered. Interest cover is very high because finance costs are trivial (US$6.0m in FY2025). Asset turnover fell in FY2025 because the Doropo/ABC acquisition (deferred consideration and capitalised project value) expanded the asset base by about US$330m before any revenue contribution. This dilution of returns will deepen through 2028 as Doropo capex is capitalised.

Management guidance (current)

Consensus expectations

Published consensus is thin. FNArena shows FY2026 EPS of about 20.8 Australian cents (P/E about 5.2x), and Ord Minnett forecasts FY2026 EPS of 24.5 Australian cents and FY2027 EPS of 18.7 Australian cents, implying earnings fall in FY2027 as production stays flat and capex rises. No consensus dividend is expected. Many targets predate the September guidance cut and are likely to drift lower.

Bull case

1. Deep value against assets. Resolute trades at about 0.6x P/NAV, US$98/oz EV/resource and about 2.9x TTM EV/EBITDA. Net cash of US$317m covers about 19% of market capitalisation. Doropo alone carries a post-tax NPV of US$2.5bn at US$4,000/oz, above the group's EV of about US$1.4bn.

2. A visible, funded growth path. Doropo is permitted, financed through local banks and existing cash, and about 60% committed. Delivery would lift the group toward more than 450–500 koz by 2029 at lower blended AISC (Doropo LOM AISC US$1,472/oz), diluting Mali to about 40% of production value.

3. Syama has bottomed. The SSCP, the on-site emulsion plant (Nov 2026), the new contractor and the September production recovery to about 15 koz/month point to Q4 2026 output of 45–50 koz and a FY2027 rebound toward 200 koz-plus.

Bear case

1. Mali is uninvestable at the margin. The company was forced into a US$160m settlement and its executives were detained. Security incidents keep breaking supply chains, and three guidance cuts in 12 months suggest systemic rather than transient problems. Syama AISC above US$2,300/oz leaves thin margins if gold retreats.

2. The cash-flow bridge to 2028 is fragile. FY2026 capex of US$310–360m plus Doropo's remaining capex, AngloGold deferred payments (about US$125m by late 2027) and VAT leakage will absorb most operating cash at lower volumes. Any gold-price correction or Doropo overrun could force equity issuance.

3. No capital returns and a concentrated register. Peers pay dividends; Resolute does not. A single holder at about 20% creates overhang and governance uncertainty, and the stock may remain a perpetual "discount" story.

Catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)

Analyst verdict

Resolute Mining is a company caught between two narratives, and its share price oscillates between them. The first is a high-margin, unhedged gold producer with a fortress balance sheet. It earned US$162.6m of NPAT in H1 2026 alone, sits on US$317m of net cash, and is building a world-class, high-return mine in a stable jurisdiction. The second is a Mali-dependent operator that has cut guidance three times in a year, carries the sector's highest AISC among its regional comparables, and has lived through the worst sovereign-risk episode of any ASX gold miner in recent memory.

The evidence suggests both narratives are true. The investment question is which one dominates by 2028. Doropo is the swing factor. It is permitted, funded and on schedule as of September 2026, and at current gold prices its NPV alone exceeds the group's enterprise value. If it is delivered on time in H2 2028, Resolute transforms into a diversified producer of about 450–500 koz with Mali below half of production value. In that scenario, today's 0.6x P/NAV is very likely too low.

The near-term path is unforgiving, however. Syama must prove it can deliver 45–50 koz in Q4 2026 and recover toward 200 koz in FY2027 while the SSCP ramps up. FY2026–FY2027 free cash flow will be largely absorbed by capex, deferred consideration and VAT leakage, so the gold price is effectively the company's funding source. Governance optionality from Helikon's 20% stake adds a wildcard.

On balance, Resolute screens as a high-risk, high-reward value proposition. Re-rating requires two to three quarters of clean execution at Syama and Doropo milestones being met. Until then, a persistent discount to peers is likely to remain warranted.