SABIC Overview
SABIC is one of the world's largest diversified petrochemical producers. It is the chemicals arm of Saudi Aramco, which holds its 70% controlling stake. SABIC converts advantaged Saudi feedstock (ethane, propane and naphtha) into commodity chemicals, polymers, specialty engineering resins and nitrogen fertilisers, and sells them to customers in more than 140 countries. The group is in the middle of its deepest structural reset in five decades. It has exited steel (Hadeed), shut uncompetitive European crackers, and sold its European petrochemicals and Americas/European engineering-thermoplastics businesses. That reset produced a record SAR 25.78bn net loss in FY2025, driven mainly by non-cash write-downs, while free cash flow rose 17% to SAR 7.2bn. The new strategy rests on four pillars: Gulf-cost-advantaged core assets, a re-separated high-margin Specialties segment, Asian growth (the Fujian complex starting up in Q4 2026 and the Rongsheng PDA), and a USD 3bn-by-2030 transformation program. A conservative balance sheet underpins all of this. In 2026 the company was simultaneously stress-tested by Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption.
Company self-description (paraphrased from latest filings)
In its FY2025 and Q2 2026 earnings releases, SABIC describes itself as one of the world's largest petrochemical manufacturers. It is a public company based in Riyadh, 70% owned by Aramco (via Aramco Downstream Company), with the remaining 30% traded on the Saudi Exchange. It serves customers in more than 140 countries. The Q2 2026 release frames the operating priorities as operational excellence, portfolio optimisation, corporate transformation and selective growth.
What the company does
SABIC is a vertically integrated, feedstock-advantaged chemicals producer organised into three reporting segments from FY2026 onward:
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Petrochemicals (Chemicals plus Polymers), the core of the group.
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Chemicals: olefins (ethylene, propylene), glycols (MEG), methanol, MTBE, aromatics and intermediates.
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Polymers: polyethylene (HDPE, LLDPE, LDPE), polypropylene and polycarbonate.
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The segment generated SAR 42.23bn of H1 2026 gross revenue, about 83% of the group total (Q2 2026 Earnings Release).
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Specialties. Specialty resins, customised compounds and reactive additives. This was re-separated from the Polymers sub-segment in 2026. H1 2026 revenue was SAR 3.62bn (about 7%).
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Agri-Nutrients. Urea, ammonia and other nitrogen fertilisers, held through the separately listed SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company (Tadawul: 2020). H1 2026 revenue was SAR 5.11bn (about 10%).
Business and revenue model
Revenue mix: Close to 100% product sales of physical goods, sold on spot and contract pricing linked to international benchmarks (Asian and European polyolefin, MEG, methanol and urea indices). There is no material subscription or licensing revenue. SABIC does license certain proprietary process technology and catalysts; for example, the 1 mtpa MTBE plant uses proprietary SABIC technology (Q2 2026 release). Licensing revenue is not separately disclosed.
Margin model: A spread business: product price minus feedstock and energy cost. Saudi regulated ethane and gas pricing gives a structural cost advantage over naphtha-based European and Asian producers.
Value chain position: Upstream to midstream. SABIC sits between Aramco (crude, gas and feedstock supply) and converters/OEMs (packaging, automotive, construction, electronics, agriculture). Specialties and compounding move it closer to OEM specification and design-in.
Customer types: - Plastic converters (film, moulding, pipe)
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Fibre and PET producers (MEG)
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Fuel blenders (MTBE)
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Formaldehyde and MTO producers (methanol)
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Automotive, electrical/electronics and healthcare OEMs (Specialties)
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Fertiliser distributors and government tenders (urea)
End-markets: Packaging; consumer goods; building and construction; automotive and transportation (including EV, via the CEER MoU of July 2026); electrical and electronics (including PCB laminates for AI data centres and 5G); healthcare; agriculture; and energy/fuels.
Independent characterisation
SABIC is a cyclical, cost-curve-advantaged commodity producer with a small and growing specialty wedge. Its earnings are highly geared to the global petrochemical cycle, which in 2023–2025 was in a deep downturn caused by Chinese capacity additions and weak demand. A sovereign-linked parent, a net-cash or low-net-debt balance sheet and a long dividend record partly offset that cyclicality. The 2023–2026 portfolio actions convert SABIC from a globally dispersed, partly high-cost asset base into a Gulf-centred export platform with selective Asian equity positions. The trade-off is greater concentration on Middle East logistics, a risk that materialised in 2026 when Hormuz disruption cut Q2 2026 sales volumes.
Strategy
Stated strategic themes (latest releases, paraphrased)
SABIC's management frames strategy around four pillars repeated in every 2026 release:
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Operational excellence. Record safety performance: TRIR 0.07 in 2025, 0.08 in Q2 2026.
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Portfolio optimisation. Exit structurally underperforming assets, reduce cash losses and raise ROCE.
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Corporate transformation. Recurring EBITDA uplift target.
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Selective growth. Disciplined, value-focused capital deployment, with a strong balance sheet and a long-standing dividend record as constraints.
The CEO's Q1 2026 statement described the agenda as portfolio optimisation, corporate transformation and selective growth aimed at better capital allocation and financial resilience (SABIC Q1 2026 PR).
Initiative register (last 24 months)
| Initiative | Type | Detail / target | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate Transformation Program | Cost/efficiency | USD 3bn cumulative recurring annual EBITDA uplift by 2030 | About USD 623m realised in 2025; USD 220m in Q1 2026; USD 547m in H1 2026 | FY2025, Q1 and Q2 2026 releases |
| Portfolio-Optimisation Program (launched 2022) | Divestment / closures | Exit underperforming assets | Hadeed sold; O3 and O6 closed; ETP sold; EP pending; Sabtank/Chemtank combination agreed | Arab News; Q2 2026 release |
| SABIC Fujian Petrochemical Complex | Growth (China) | USD 6.4bn; 51% SABIC | 95.3% complete at end-2025; about 98% at Q1 2026; start-up Q4 2026 | FY2025 / Q1 / Q2 2026 releases |
| Jintang New Materials Project (Rongsheng) | Growth (China) | Potential 30–50% stake in Rongsheng New Materials; dev-cost sharing capped at USD 200m; toward a potential FID | PDA signed 16 Jul 2026 | SABIC PR; Rongsheng filing / FilingReader |
| 1 mtpa MTBE plant | Downstream integration (KSA) | Proprietary technology | Commercial production 2026 | FY2025 / Q2 2026 |
| EO-catalyst plant (Shareek) | Localisation | Catalyst supply security | FID 2025 | FY2025 release |
| China ETP compounding plant | Specialties growth | Wholly owned | FID 2025 | FY2025 release |
| PPE-based specialty polymer expansion | Specialties growth | For AI data-centre and 5G PCBs | Announced 2025 | FY2025 release |
| Specialties segment re-separation | Reporting / strategy | Visibility of high-margin business | Effective 2026 | Q2 2026 release |
| CEER EV MoU | Partnership / localisation | Advanced materials for Saudi EVs | Signed Jul 2026 | Q2 2026 release |
| Sabtank–Chemtank combination | Logistics consolidation | Share exchange to create a national petrochemicals logistics champion | Key terms agreed; awaiting approvals | Q2 2026 release |
| Supply-chain re-routing | Resilience | East-to-west polymer shuttling doubled; Red Sea Express | Q2 2026 | Q2 2026 release/call |
| Innovation pipeline | Commercial innovation | 148 new products in 2025; 32 in H1 2026 | Ongoing | FY2025 / Q2 2026 |
Medium-term targets and guidance
| Target | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 capex (incl. growth capital injections) | USD 3.5–4.0bn | FY2025, Q1 and Q2 2026 releases |
| Transformation EBITDA uplift | USD 3bn per year (cumulative) by 2030 | Q2 2026 release |
| Pro forma margin uplift from ETP exit | About +130–140 bps EBITDA margin | Tadawul filing, Aug 2026 |
| Dividend | No fixed policy in sources reviewed; H1 2026 SAR 1.10/share | Q2 2026 release |
| Carbon neutrality | 2050 (scope 1 and 2) | [NV] SABIC sustainability reporting |
SABIC does not publish revenue or EBITDA guidance.
Products & Services
Pricing for all commodity lines is market-indexed (spot or contract formula). SABIC does not publish list prices.
Petrochemicals — Chemicals
| Product | Description and use | Target customers | Notes and flagship |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ethylene and propylene | Olefin building blocks from ethane, propane and naphtha crackers (Jubail, Yanbu; GCGV Texas JV; Fujian from Q4 2026) | Mainly captive; derivative producers | European olefins (Geleen, Gelsenkirchen; Teesside O6 closed) being sold to AEQUITA |
| Monoethylene glycol (MEG) | Polyester fibre and PET resin feedstock; SABIC is among the world's largest MEG producers [NV on ranking] | PET and fibre producers (Asia-heavy) | Q2 2026 prices rose in all regions on Middle East supply constraints (Q2 2026 release) |
| Methanol | Formaldehyde, MTO, MTBE and acetic acid feedstock | Chemical intermediates, MTO plants in China | Prices rose in Q2 2026 on tighter Middle East supply |
| MTBE | Gasoline octane blending component | Refiners, blenders | New 1 mtpa plant in KSA (started up 2025; commercial production confirmed Q2 2026) using proprietary SABIC technology |
| Aromatics and intermediates (benzene, styrene, butadiene and others) | Polymer and rubber feedstocks | Derivative producers | Product-level disclosure limited [NV] |
| EO catalyst (future) | Ethylene-oxide catalyst plant under the Shareek public-private partnership | Captive / localisation | FID 2025 (FY2025 release) |
Petrochemicals — Polymers
| Product | Description | Target customers | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polyethylene (HDPE, LLDPE, LDPE) | Film, blow/injection moulding, pipe, cable | Packaging and consumer converters | Teesside LDPE remained operational after O6 closure and is part of the EP perimeter being sold (OGJ) |
| Polypropylene | Homopolymer, random and impact copolymers | Automotive, packaging, fibres | Q2 2026 prices elevated on tight supply |
| Polycarbonate | Transparent engineering polymer | Automotive glazing, electronics, construction sheet | Middle East/Asia PC retained (e.g., Sinopec SABIC Tianjin PC line); Americas/Europe PC sold with ETP |
| TRUCIRCLE portfolio | Circular polymers (mechanically/chemically recycled feedstock, certified renewable) | Brand owners with recycled-content targets | Brand launched about 2020 [NV] |
Specialties (re-separated 2026)
| Product family | Description | Target | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| PPE-based specialty polymers and oligomers (NORYL family incl. low-Dk oligomers) | Dielectric resins for high-frequency copper-clad laminates | PCB laminators for AI data-centre and 5G hardware | Capacity expansion announced in 2025 (FY2025 release) |
| PEI resins (ULTEM family) | High-heat, flame-retardant amorphous resin | Aerospace, healthcare, electronics | — |
| Specialty compounds (LNP family) | Customised compounds (conductive, wear-resistant, glass-filled) | Automotive, E&E | New China ETP compounding plant (FID 2025) |
| Reactive additives | Functional additives for formulators | Coatings, composites | Segment definition per Q2 2026 release |
| BLUEHERO | Electrification materials initiative (battery packs, charging, e-motors) | EV OEMs and Tier 1s | [NV] launch 2022; CEER MoU (Jul 2026) aligns |
Agri-Nutrients
| Product | Description | Customers | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Urea (granular, bagged, bulk) | Nitrogen fertiliser | Distributors and importers in Asia, the Americas, Africa | First bagged and solid-bulk west-coast urea shipment completed in Q2 2026 |
| Ammonia | Fertiliser and industrial feedstock; low-carbon ammonia pilots [NV] | Fertiliser and chemical producers | — |
| Other nitrogen and phosphate products | Via affiliates and JVs [NV] | — | — |
Financial Narrative
Basis warning.
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FY2021–FY2023 figures are as originally reported.
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FY2024 appears twice: as originally reported, and as restated in the FY2025 release (continuing operations, excluding the European Petrochemicals and Americas/Europe ETP businesses).
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FY2025 is on the new continuing basis.
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Revenue CAGR is therefore distorted by perimeter changes.
Income statement
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Segment Overview
| Segment | Contents | Representative products | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
Petrochemicals | Chemicals and Polymers businesses | Ethylene, propylene, MEG, methanol, MTBE, PE, PP, PC | Q2 2026 volume 5.43 MMT |
Specialties | Specialty resins, customised compounds, reactive additives | High-performance resins (PEI, PPE-based), compounds, oligomers | Re-separated in 2026 from the Polymers sub-segment; Q2 2026 volume 65 KMT |
Agri-Nutrients | Nitrogen fertilisers via SABIC Agri-Nutrients Co. (Tadawul 2020) | Urea, ammonia | Q2 2026 volume 0.96 MMT |
Corporate / Eliminations | Head office costs and intersegment eliminations | — | Q2 2026 corporate EBITDA SAR -0.13bn |
Segment revenue (SAR Bn, basis noted)
| Segment revenue (SAR Bn, basis noted) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Petrochemicals revenue (2022–23 original basis; 2024–25 restated continuing basis) | 164.85 | 131.26 | 107.25 | 103.94 |
Agri-Nutrients revenue (segment basis) | 18.23 | 10.28 | 10.48 | 12.59 |
Segment EBITDA (SAR Bn)
| Segment EBITDA (SAR Bn) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Petrochemicals EBITDA | 25.08 | 14.62 | 17.08 | 11.54 |
Petrochemicals adjusted EBITDA | — | — | 17.03 | 12.92 |
Agri-Nutrients EBITDA | 11.30 | 4.40 | 3.92 | 4.89 |
Agri-Nutrients adjusted EBITDA | — | — | 3.95 | 4.96 |
Segment EBIT (SAR Bn)
| Segment EBIT (SAR Bn) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Petrochemicals EBIT | 12.45 | 0.20 | 6.40 | 0.33 |
Petrochemicals adjusted EBIT | — | — | 6.74 | 2.81 |
Agri-Nutrients EBIT | 10.46 | 3.52 | 3.02 | 4.04 |
Agri-Nutrients adjusted EBIT | — | — | 3.06 | 4.11 |
Segment margin and contribution (%)
| Segment margin and contribution (%) | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
Petrochemicals EBITDA margin | 15.9 | 11.1 |
Agri-Nutrients EBITDA margin | 37.4 | 38.8 |
Petrochemicals share of segment revenue | 91.1 | 89.2 |
Agri-Nutrients share of segment revenue | 8.9 | 10.8 |
Petrochemicals revenue YoY growth | — | -3.1 |
Agri-Nutrients revenue YoY growth | — | 20.1 |
Results by Segment
| Segment (SAR Bn) | Q2 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | H1 2025 | H1 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Petrochemicals revenue | 25.31 | 21.76 | 20.47 | 49.89 | 42.23 |
Specialties revenue | 1.77 | 1.68 | 1.94 | 3.36 | 3.62 |
Agri-Nutrients revenue | 3.15 | 2.71 | 2.40 | 6.24 | 5.11 |
Group revenue | 30.23 | 26.15 | 24.81 | 59.49 | 50.96 |
Petrochemicals adj. EBITDA | 4.07 | 2.36 | 2.37 | 6.81 | 4.73 |
Specialties adj. EBITDA | 0.30 | 0.44 | 0.38 | 0.59 | 0.82 |
Agri-Nutrients adj. EBITDA | 1.24 | 1.37 | 0.68 | 2.40 | 2.05 |
Petrochemicals adj. EBIT | 1.79 | 0.10 | -0.19 | 2.21 | -0.09 |
Specialties adj. EBIT | 0.17 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.35 | 0.47 |
Agri-Nutrients adj. EBIT | 1.02 | 1.17 | 0.49 | 1.96 | 1.67 |
Income Statement and Per-Share Data
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue, as originally reported (SAR Bn) | 174.88 | 183.13 | 141.54 | 139.98 | 116.53 |
Revenue, FY2025 restated basis (SAR Bn) | — | — | — | 117.74 | 116.53 |
Gross profit (SAR Bn) | — | 41.32 | 23.72 | — | — |
Income from operations / EBIT (SAR Bn) | — | 22.91 | 3.72 | 9.43 | 4.37 |
Adjusted EBIT (SAR Bn) | — | — | — | 9.79 | 6.92 |
EBITDA (SAR Bn) | — | 36.40 | 19.00 | 21.00 | 16.43 |
Adjusted EBITDA (SAR Bn) | — | — | — | 20.98 | 17.88 |
Net income from continuing ops (SAR Bn) | — | 15.79 | 1.30 | 5.09 | -1.53 |
Net income attributable to parent (SAR Bn) | 23.07 | 16.53 | -2.77 | 1.54 | -25.78 |
Adjusted net income (SAR Bn) | — | — | — | 5.88 | 2.07 |
Basic EPS (SAR) | 7.69 | 5.51 | -0.92 | 0.51 | -8.59 |
Adjusted EPS (SAR) | — | — | — | 1.96 | 0.69 |
Diluted EPS (SAR; no material dilution) | 7.69 | 5.51 | -0.92 | 0.51 | -8.59 |
Dividend per share (SAR) [2021–2023 NV] | 4.00 | 4.50 | 4.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
Margin Analysis (%)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin (%) | — | 22.6 | 16.8 | — | — |
EBIT margin (%) (FY2024 restated) | — | 12.5 | 2.6 | 8.0 | 3.8 |
EBITDA margin (%) (FY2024 restated) | — | 19.9 | 13.4 | 17.8 | 14.1 |
Adjusted EBITDA margin (%) | — | — | — | 17.8 | 15.3 |
Net margin (%) (FY2024 on original revenue) | 13.2 | 9.0 | -2.0 | 1.1 | -22.1 |
Financial Analysis
| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | — | 30.23 | 29.08 | 27.95 | 26.15 | 24.81 |
Adjusted EBITDA | — | 5.33 | 5.09 | 3.32 | 4.15 | 3.38 |
EBIT | — | 2.67 | 2.28 | -0.88 | 1.45 | 0.71 |
Net income attributable | -1.21 | -4.07 | 0.44 | -20.94 | 0.01 | -0.83 |
Adjusted net income | 0.90 | 1.20 | 1.37 | -1.40 | 0.82 | -0.38 |
Free cash flow | — | 0.87 | 4.34 | 3.33 | -0.27 | -1.40 |
Income Statement
| Metric (SAR Bn) | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
Net cash (positive) / net debt (negative) | 8.76 | 3.00 | 3.61 |
Net debt / EBITDA (x; negative = net cash) | -0.46 | -0.14 | -0.22 |
Cash Flow
| Metric (SAR Bn) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow (OCF minus capex) | — | — | — | 6.16 | 7.18 |
Dividends declared to SABIC shareholders | — | — | — | 9.00 | 9.00 |
Share buybacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Financial Ratios (x) and Margin Analysis (%)
| Ratio | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Net debt / EBITDA (x) | — | -0.46 | -0.14 | -0.22 |
EBITDA margin (%) | 19.9 | 13.4 | 17.8 | 14.1 |
Data Point Details
| Data point | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
Divested ETP business revenue | About USD 2.5bn per year; 66% Americas, 34% Europe | Mutares / Edison, Aug 2026 |
European operations loss | SAR 1.89bn in Q4 2024 alone (secondary) | portfolio-pplus.com commentary |
Customer reach | More than 140 countries | SABIC releases |
Valuation Snapshot
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
Price, 5 Aug 2026 | 51.00 | MarketScreener |
Price, 30 Jul 2026 | 49.60 | Mubasher / MarketScreener |
Price, late Apr 2026 | 60.85 (up 19% YTD at that time) | AGBI |
1-year change to Aug 2026 | -6.85% | MarketScreener |
3-year change | -40.0% | MarketScreener |
5-year change | -58.9% | MarketScreener |
10-year change | -36.8% | MarketScreener |
Price change from FAB's Mar 2026 rating to Aug 2026 | -10.3% | FAB Securities |
Market Valuation
| Year-end market cap (USD Bn) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Market capitalisation (USD Bn) | 92.79 | 71.39 | 66.67 | 53.73 | 41.71 |
Valuation Snapshot by Multiple
| Multiple | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
EV/EBITDA (FY2025 adjusted) | About 8.4x | — |
EV/Sales (FY2025) | About 1.3x | Same EV / SAR 116.53bn |
P/E (FY2025 adjusted EPS SAR 0.69) | About 74x | Adjusted basis; reported EPS negative, so P/E not meaningful |
P/B | About 1.0x (Mubasher, on Q2 2025 BVPS of SAR 51.29; stale) | — |
Dividend yield (trailing 12m: SAR 1.50 + 1.10) | About 5.1% | Analyst computation |
Analyst Ratings & Targets
| Broker | Date | Rating | Target (SAR) |
|---|---|---|---|
FAB Securities | 14 Aug 2026 | BUY (upgraded from Accumulate) | 65.00 |
Riyad Capital | Aug 2026 | Neutral (target cut) | Not disclosed in snippet |
Consensus (Investing.com) | Feb 2026 | — | Average 63.30 (high 99, low 54) |
Dividend per share (SAR)
| Dividend per share (SAR) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total DPS (SAR) [2021–2023 NV] | 4.00 | 4.50 | 4.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
Credit Ratings
| Agency | SABIC rating / outlook | Flag |
|---|---|---|
Moody's | A1 (last known) | [NV for 2026] |
S&P | A (last known) | [NV for 2026] |
Fitch | A+ (last known) | [NV for 2026] |
Sovereign anchor (KSA, 2026) | Moody's Aa3 stable (affirmed 22 May 2026); S&P A+ stable (Mar 2026); Fitch A+ stable (Jan and Jul 2026) | NDMC / MoF |
Analyst Conclusions
Management guidance
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2026 capex of USD 3.5–4.0bn.
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Continued focus on operational excellence, portfolio optimisation, transformation and selective growth.
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Fujian start-up in Q4 2026.
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Transformation run-rate on track toward USD 3bn by 2030.
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No revenue or earnings guidance (Q2 2026 Earnings Release).
Consensus expectations
Sell-side positioning is split: FAB is at BUY with a SAR 65 target (about 27% upside from SAR 51), while Riyad Capital is Neutral with a lowered target.
Bull case
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Normalisation upside. When Hormuz flows normalise, Saudi feedstock-advantaged producers should regain share (AGBI, May 2026; Fitch expects 2027 rebound). Q2 2026 showed strong pricing (+41% QoQ) with constrained volume, so volume recovery at elevated prices is high-leverage.
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Structural margin uplift. ETP exit (+130–140 bps pro forma), EP exit (removing cash-losing European cracking), USD 2.45bn of transformation EBITDA still to come, and a 22–23% margin Specialties segment growing about 40% at EBITDA.
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Growth plus balance sheet. Fujian (Q4 2026) and a potential Rongsheng stake add Asian growth while net debt sits around 0.2x EBITDA. That leaves capacity to restore dividends.
Bear case
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Cycle, not logistics, is the binding constraint. Even before 2026, FY2025 Petrochemicals EBIT was just SAR 0.33bn. Chinese self-sufficiency may keep spreads depressed for years.
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Cash and dividend squeeze. H1 2026 FCF was SAR -1.67bn against SAR 3.3bn of dividends and USD 3.5–4bn capex, so the company is funding payouts from its balance sheet. Divestments yield little cash because of vendor notes and earn-outs, and a further dividend cut is possible.
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Concentration and execution risk. Exiting Western plants concentrates risk in the Gulf exactly when the chokepoint failed. Fujian and Rongsheng add large China exposure amid trade-policy uncertainty, and related-party structures may not maximise minority-shareholder value.
Catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)
| Catalyst / monitorable | Expected timing |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 results: volume recovery, FCF, dividend signals | Late Oct / early Nov 2026 |
| SABIC Fujian start-up and ramp-up | Q4 2026 |
| Closing of EP sale to AEQUITA | Q4 2026 |
| FY2026 results and H2 2026 dividend | Mar 2027 |
| Rongsheng Jintang FID decision | 2026–2027 |
| Sabtank–Chemtank completion | Subject to approvals |
| Hormuz shipping normalisation | Geopolitical; ongoing |
| Transformation run-rate updates (progress toward USD 3bn) | Quarterly |
| Possible NIGC divestment (unconfirmed) | Unknown |
| Credit rating actions (post-loss, post-divestment) | Ongoing |
Analyst verdict
SABIC in October 2026 is a company in deliberate transition, caught in an external shock. The FY2025 loss of SAR 25.78bn was dramatic but largely an accounting reset: non-cash write-downs on European and American assets that were no longer earning their cost of capital. Underlying cash generation was respectable, with FY2025 free cash flow of SAR 7.2bn, up 17%. The strategic logic is coherent and visible in the numbers. The ETP exit alone adds roughly 130–140 bps of pro forma EBITDA margin, the re-separated Specialties segment earns more than double the Petrochemicals margin, and the transformation programme has delivered USD 547m of recurring EBITDA in H1 2026 alone.
2026 has exposed the flip side of that strategy. Concentrating production in the Gulf made SABIC hostage to the Strait of Hormuz, and Q2 2026 volumes collapsed even as prices spiked. The result was an adjusted net loss, negative free cash flow and a reset dividend of SAR 1.10 for the half-year. Divestment proceeds offer little cushion, because the European sale is vendor-financed and most ETP value is contingent.
The investment case therefore turns on three variables:
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The pace of logistics normalisation.
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Whether Fujian starts up on schedule and quickly earns returns.
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Whether management can rebuild dividend cover without stretching the balance sheet.
The balance sheet, still essentially unlevered, and Aramco parentage sharply limit downside to solvency. Earnings visibility, however, is poor. At about SAR 51, around 1x stated book and about 8x FY2025 adjusted EBITDA as a lower bound, the shares appear to discount a prolonged trough rather than a recovery.
On balance, the risk-reward is modestly positive for patient investors with a 2027 horizon, contingent on Hormuz normalisation. The stock is not a near-term yield story until free cash flow covers the dividend again. The key datapoint to watch is Q3 2026 volume recovery.
Data current to sources published through mid-August 2026. Q3 2026 results had not been released as of 7 October 2026. Items flagged [NV] or n/a should be confirmed against SABIC's FY2025 Integrated Annual Report and audited financial statements before reliance.
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View Subscription PlansExecutive Leadership
Executive Leadership Team
| Name | Title | Tenure | Prior roles | Education |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dr. Faisal Mohammed Alfaqeer | CEO and Executive Board Member | Since 1 Apr 2026 | SVP In-Kingdom Liquids-to-Chemicals Development, Saudi Aramco; CEO, Sadara Chemical Co. (Oct 2017–Nov 2022); Chairman, ARLANXEO; Chairman, Saudi Aramco Mobil Refinery Co. | BSc, KFUPM; MSc and PhD, Materials Science & Engineering, Pennsylvania State University |
Abdulrahman Al-Fageeh (former) | CEO and Executive Board Member | Acting from 28 Sep 2022; CEO 21 Mar 2023 to 1 Apr 2026 (retired) | More than 40 years at SABIC; EVP Petrochemicals, Performance Chemicals and Polymers SBUs | — |
“—” = not publicly disclosed.
Board of Directors
| Name | Role | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Khalid Al-Dabbagh | Chairman | Former Aramco executive [NV on prior role]; quoted as Chairman in Mar 2026 CEO-succession release |
Dr. Faisal Alfaqeer | Executive Board Member (CEO) | Since 2026 |
Ibrahim Al-Buainain | Board member (interim appointment, Mar 2026) | EVP Global Manufacturing, Aramco; filled the seat vacated by Al-Fageeh |
Board & Management Changes
| Date | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|
4 Mar 2026 | Al-Fageeh retirement announced; Alfaqeer appointed CEO; Al-Buainain interim board member | Announced alongside the record FY2025 loss; continuity of the portfolio-optimisation agenda |
1 Apr 2026 | Alfaqeer takes office | Aramco veteran, signalling deeper integration with the parent's liquids-to-chemicals strategy |
28 Sep 2022 | Al-Fageeh becomes acting CEO | Predecessor Yousef Al-Benyan departed [NV: appointed Minister of Education] |
Major Shareholders
| Holder | Stake | Source |
|---|---|---|
Aramco Downstream Company (wholly owned by Saudi Aramco) | 70.0% | Q2 2026 Earnings Release |
Free float (public, Tadawul) | 30.0% | Same |
Other holders of 5% or more | None disclosed | — |
Competitive Landscape
Competitors by Segment
| Segment | Competitors |
|---|---|
Petrochemicals (olefins, PE, PP, MEG) | Dow; LyondellBasell; ExxonMobil Chemical; Sinopec; PetroChina; INEOS; Borouge Group International (ADNOC/OMV); Formosa Plastics; LG Chem; Reliance Industries; Rongsheng/ZPC (also a prospective partner); SIPCHEM, Yansab and Saudi Kayan (KSA peers, partly SABIC-controlled) |
Methanol / MTBE | Methanex; SIPCHEM; Chinese coal-to-methanol producers |
Specialties / engineering resins | Covestro (PC; now ADNOC-controlled [NV]); Asahi Kasei (PPE); Mitsubishi Engineering-Plastics; Celanese; Solvay/Syensqo; DuPont; NexPoint Materials (ex-SABIC ETP, now a direct competitor in the Americas and Europe) |
Agri-Nutrients (urea, ammonia) | Yara; CF Industries; Nutrien; QAFCO; Ma'aden; Fertiglobe (ADNOC) |
Peer Comparison FY2024
| Company | Revenue (latest FY) | Revenue growth | EBITDA / operating margin | R&D intensity | Basis / flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SABIC | SAR 116.5bn (about USD 31.1bn), FY2025 | -1% (restated basis) | Adj. EBITDA 15.3% | — | FY2025 Earnings Release |
Dow | About USD 43.0bn, FY2024 | About -3% | — | About 2% | [NV] FY2024 10-K |
LyondellBasell | About USD 40.3bn, FY2024 | About -2% | — | <1% | [NV] FY2024 10-K |
BASF (group) | About EUR 65.3bn, FY2024 | About -5% | — | About 3% | [NV] FY2024 annual report |
