Seeing machines Overview
Seeing Machines is an Australian computer-vision and human-factors AI company. For more than two decades it has built software, embedded processing and optics that measure where a vehicle operator is looking and infer cognitive state (fatigue, distraction, impairment). It monetises this through three channels:
Per-vehicle royalties: from automotive OEM programmes delivered via Tier 1 suppliers.
Recurring monitoring subscriptions and hardware: from its Guardian aftermarket fleet system.
Licensing, engineering and partnership fees: across aviation (Collins Aerospace), off-road (Caterpillar) and, since August 2026, robotics.
The company claims more than 50% of current global DMS/OMS production volumes. Its technology is in 8.2 million vehicles following the EU General Safety Regulation's July 2026 camera-based distraction mandate. FY2026 marked an inflection: adjusted revenue rose 45% to US$76.3m and H2 adjusted EBITDA turned positive. The balance sheet remains thin, however, and a US$47.5m-principal Magna convertible note (now due 30 November 2026) dominates the near-term investment case. Strategic shareholder Mitsubishi Electric owns about 19.9%.
What the company does
Company's own description. The latest annual and half-year reports describe the business in terms of its principal activities and its technology:
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Developing, selling and licensing products, services and technology that detect and manage driver fatigue and distraction.
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Entering commercial agreements with partners for development, manufacturing and sale into key target markets.
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Researching and developing its core vision-processing technologies (FY2025 AFR, Principal Activities).
The standard boilerplate in its RNSs portrays the company as a leader in vision-based monitoring that enables machines to see, understand and assist people. Its stated technology portfolio spans AI algorithms, embedded processing and optics. Reliable "driver state" measurement is described as the end-goal of DMS, serving Automotive, Commercial Fleet, Off-road and Aviation. Since mid-2026, company communications reposition the group more broadly as a pioneer of "Human-Centred AI" for machines that understand people and their environments. This framing accompanies the August 2026 Physical AI (robotics) launch (GlobeNewswire, 30 September 2026).
Business model and revenue model
| Revenue type | Segment | Economic character | FY2025 adjusted revenue (USD K) | Share of FY2025 adjusted revenue (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royalties (per-vehicle) | OEM | High-margin, volume-driven, recurring as long as programmes are in production | 14,406 | 27.3 |
| Non-recurring engineering (NRE) | OEM / Aftermarket | Lower-margin development work; a lead indicator of future royalties | 10,721 | 20.3 |
| Licensing (exclusivity / IP licences) | OEM / Aftermarket | High-margin, lumpy, one-off (Magna exclusivity, Collins, Caterpillar) | 6,666 | 12.6 |
| Driver monitoring (subscription) | Aftermarket | High-margin recurring SaaS-like Guardian connections; ~36-month contracts | 13,563 | 25.7 |
| Hardware and installations | OEM / Aftermarket | Lower-margin Guardian hardware sales | 7,413 | 14.0 |
| Total adjusted revenue | — | — | 52,769 | 100.0 |
The Group reports two operating segments: OEM (Automotive plus Aviation) and Aftermarket (Fleet plus Off-Road). It monetises through five revenue types.
Source: FY2025 AFR, Note 4(c). IFRS revenue of US$62.337m additionally includes US$9.568m of net minimum-guarantee royalty revenue recognised upfront under AASB 15.
Mix shift. The model is moving decisively toward royalties. In FY2026, adjusted automotive royalty revenue was US$33.9m, roughly 44% of US$76.3m adjusted revenue. That compares with 27% in FY2025 and about 10% in FY2022 (FY2026 Trading Update; FY2023 AR).
Value-chain position
In automotive, Seeing Machines is a Tier 2 software/IP supplier. It licenses its DMS/OMS perception stack to Tier 1 suppliers, which integrate camera, illumination and compute into a module (steering column, overhead console, or the interior rear-view mirror with Magna). The Tier 1 then sells to the OEM. Seeing Machines earns NRE during development and a per-unit royalty once production starts.
In fleet, it is a vertically integrated solution provider. It sells Guardian hardware directly or through distributors (such as Connect Source and Mitsubishi Electric referral channels) and runs a monitoring service. In off-road it licenses technology to Caterpillar. In aviation it co-develops with Collins Aerospace under an exclusive licence.
Customer types and end-markets
| End-market | Customers / channel | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Passenger automotive | Global OEMs via Tier 1s (Magna, Valeo, Mitsubishi Electric Mobility and unnamed Tier 1s); European, US, Chinese and Japanese OEMs | Core profit engine; >8.2m vehicles on road at June 2026 |
| Commercial fleet (trucking, logistics, bus, mining haulage) | Fleet operators direct and via distributors (HORUX Latam, Connect Source, Mitsubishi Electric America/Europe referrals) | Guardian ARR US$15.0m (FY2026) |
| Autonomous vehicles / robotaxi | Back-up driver monitoring (Guardian BdMS) for AV test fleets; Future Mobility Group | US$5.6m BdMS orders in FY2026 |
| Off-road / heavy equipment | Caterpillar (five-year licence from June 2024) | Licensing + NRE |
| Aviation | Collins Aerospace exclusive licence; simulators and flight deck | Lower contribution in H1 FY2026 |
| Robotics / factory automation | Global industrial technology company (unnamed) proof-of-concept | Development stage (Aug 2026) |
Independent characterisation
Seeing Machines is best understood as a regulation-levered automotive software royalty business with a capital-hungry hardware/services adjunct. Its moat rests on three things:
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Two decades of human-factors data and validated gaze-tracking performance.
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Incumbency in production programmes, where switching mid-lifecycle is rare.
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Deep Tier 1 integration, particularly the rear-view-mirror architecture with Magna.
The economic weaknesses are equally clear:
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Royalty revenue lags production and is paid quarterly in arrears, which creates working-capital strain (receivables and royalties owed reached US$25.3m at June 2026).
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Per-unit pricing is under competitive pressure as DMS becomes mandated and commoditised.
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Guardian hardware has historically been volatile (FY2025 hardware revenue fell 66% on Generation 3 delays).
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The company has never been profitable on an IFRS basis. Accumulated losses were US$264.5m at December 2025.
Strategy
Stated strategy (themes from FY2025 Annual Report, H1 FY2026 report and FY2026 trading update)
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Convert regulation into royalties. Capitalise on the EU GSR (DDAW since 2022/2024; ADDW from 7 July 2026), Euro NCAP DMS scoring, the US NHTSA DMS roadmap, and emerging DMS policy in China, Japan and Australia. Grow royalty revenue and cash generation as programmes scale.
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Sustainable growth and cash discipline. Management's stated priorities have centred on reaching cash-flow break-even (run-rate by calendar end-2025), positive cash flow in H2 FY2026 and beyond, and improving profitability.
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Expand Cabin AI beyond driver monitoring. Occupant monitoring, 3D Cabin Perception Mapping, impairment and intoxication detection, and gaze-plus-exterior sensing fusion.
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Scale Guardian with partners. Mitsubishi Electric referral channels in the Americas and Europe; GSR-driven factory-fit and after-manufacture fitment with commercial vehicle OEMs.
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Autonomous and future mobility. Future Mobility Group built on Guardian BdMS.
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Adjacencies via Human-Centred AI. Robotics and Physical AI, plus adjacent sectors with Mitsubishi (rail, building management and factory automation were named in FY2025).
Strategic initiatives register (last 24 months)
| Date | Initiative | Type | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2024 | Asaphus Vision acquisition | M&A / capability | Berlin AI/ML team (34 FTE) and European HQ |
| H1 FY2025 | Valeo collaboration | Partnership | Joint pursuit of automotive opportunities globally |
| 23 Dec 2024 | Mitsubishi Electric Mobility partnership | Strategic investment + collaboration | £26.2m equity; automotive (Japan primary), aftermarket and adjacent markets |
| Mar 2025 | Strategic reorganisation | Cost programme | ~US$12m annualised savings; new CTO and CSO; monthly adjusted EBITDA loss cut from US$3.0m to US$2.1m in H2 FY2025 |
| 1 Apr 2025 | Airy3D 3D camera | Technology partnership | Cost-effective 3D in-cabin sensing |
| Jun 2025 | Mitsubishi Electric Europe referral; Connect Source distributor renewal; Mitsubishi NA Guardian Gen 3 trial | Channel | Guardian go-to-market |
| Sep 2025 | Impairment detection launch | Product | Addresses US regulatory focus on impaired driving |
| Jan 2026 | Future Mobility Group | New business unit | Autonomous vehicle monitoring |
| Jan 2026 | 3D Cabin Perception Mapping (CES) | Product platform | Cabin, robotics, factory automation |
| Jan 2026 | Accelerated royalty (US$14.1m) | Financing / commercial | Renegotiated guarantee with Tier 1 customer |
| Q1 CY2026 | A$11m receivables funding facility | Financing | Working capital for royalties paid in arrears |
| Feb 2026 | Singer Capital Markets joint broker | Capital markets | Broadened broker coverage |
| H1 CY2026 | Convertible Note refinancing process | Financing | Multiple term sheets; exclusive negotiation; then pivot to Magna extension |
| Aug 2026 | Robotics development contract; Physical AI Platform | New market | Factory-automation proof-of-concept; humanoid and cobot platform |
| Sep 2026 | Magna CLN interim extension | Financing | Maturity to 30 Nov 2026; longer-term extension under negotiation |
ESG / sustainability commitments
A FY2025 Sustainability Report was published alongside the FY2025 Annual Report, and a Modern Slavery Statement 2025 is on the website. Quantified emissions targets were not identified in reviewed documents.
Medium-term financial targets / guidance
| Item | Status |
|---|---|
| FY2026 adjusted EBITDA | –US$2.0m to –US$3.0m (H2 +US$10.7m to +US$11.7m) |
| FY2027 guidance | No quantified guidance. Management expects H2 FY2026 momentum to continue through FY2027 |
| Historic "≥US$125m FY2026 revenue" expectation | Stated by management around FY2023 results (Sharecast). Actual FY2026 adjusted revenue was US$76.3m, a large miss versus that earlier aspiration |
| Prior contracted pipeline | FY2023: won business at initial minimum volumes of US$321m, mostly recognisable by 2028. No updated aggregate figure was found in reviewed 2025–26 documents |
Products & Services
OEM segment — Automotive
| Product / offering | Description & capabilities | Target customer | Launch / latest | Pricing model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DMS/OMS software stack (Driver & Occupant Monitoring System) | Embedded AI that tracks head pose, eyelid and gaze to detect distraction and drowsiness (supports EU DDAW/ADDW and Euro NCAP); occupant monitoring for cabin state | OEMs via Tier 1s | In production since 2017 (first OEM programme); continuously updated; >8.2m vehicles on road at June 2026 | NRE during development, then per-vehicle royalty; minimum-volume guarantees in some contracts. Per-unit price not publicly disclosed |
| Interior rear-view-mirror integrated DMS/OMS | DMS/OMS integrated in the mirror; scalable across vehicle lines with reduced engineering complexity | OEMs via Magna and other Tier 1s | Magna exclusivity Oct 2022–Jun 2025; China ramp with Magna announced Nov 2025; new European OEM mirror award Jul 2026 (SOP 2028, ~US$5m initial lifetime value) | Royalty |
| Single- and dual-camera architectures (steering-column and overhead-console mounts) | Flexible camera placements for DMS/OMS | Japanese and European OEMs | Two Japanese OEM awards, 15 Jun 2026 (SOP from 2028, ~US$11m initial lifetime value) | Royalty |
| 3D in-cabin camera (with Airy3D) | Lower-cost depth sensing for future regulatory requirements | Tier 1s/OEMs | Announced 1 Apr 2025 | — |
| 3D Cabin Perception Mapping | Real-time 3D map of occupants, objects and cabin; foundation for robotics and factory automation | OEMs, future mobility | Debuted CES 2026 (Jan 2026) | — |
| Impairment detection | Detects alcohol and broader non-transient impairment, aligned with the US NHTSA regulatory direction | OEMs | Launched Sep 2025; technical paper series on intoxication from Dec 2025 | — |
| Gaze + exterior sensing fusion (demonstrator) | Combines driver gaze with exterior sensing to warn earlier when a road user enters a collision path | OEMs / ADAS suppliers | Demonstrated at InCabin conference (reported 2 Oct 2026) | — |
| Synthetic-data training pipeline | Computer-generated scenarios for training and validation | Internal / OEM development | Highlighted by Stifel, Oct 2026 | Not applicable |
OEM segment — Aviation
| Product / offering | Description | Customer | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pilot eye-tracking and fatigue monitoring (flight deck and simulators) | Joint development of eye-tracking solutions for aircraft and simulators | Collins Aerospace (exclusive licence); airlines and training centres via Collins | Exclusive licence signed FY2023 (US$10m over three years plus NRE). Company cited an addressable opportunity of more than US$700m over 20 years. H1 FY2026 contribution was lower due to timing and organisational changes at Collins |
Aftermarket segment — Fleet and Off-Road
| Product / offering | Description | Customer | Launch / latest | Pricing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guardian Generation 3 | In-cab camera DMS for commercial vehicles detecting fatigue and distraction; homologated with two UK bus manufacturers for GSR | Trucking, logistics, bus, mining haulage fleets | Full production FY2025; 5,466 units sold FY2025; Q4 FY2026 sales of 3,058 units | Hardware sale plus installation |
| Guardian monitoring service (driver monitoring) | Human-verified 24/7 event review and intervention; recurring connection fees | Fleets | Guardian ARR US$15.0m at June 2026 | Monthly subscription; contracts ~36 months |
| Guardian BdMS (Back-up driver Monitoring System) | Monitors safety drivers in autonomous-vehicle test fleets | Robotaxi/AV developers (North America) | US$1.2m (Jun 2025), US$1.8m (Oct 2025), US$3.8m (May 2026) orders | Hardware plus service |
| Future Mobility Group | Division addressing the autonomous vehicle industry's monitoring needs | AV developers | Established 2 Jan 2026 | Not applicable |
| Caterpillar off-road licence | Seeing Machines technology licensed for Caterpillar's on-highway and heavy-equipment driver safety offering | Caterpillar | Five-year licence from June 2024 | Licence fees plus support/maintenance and NRE |
| Guardian Insights Report | Annual data publication on fatigue/distraction trends | Industry, regulators | 2024/25 edition published Dec 2025 | Free |
Robotics / Physical AI (new)
| Product / offering | Description | Customer | Launch | Pricing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Physical AI Platform (Human-Centred AI) | Dynamic 3D perception map of people, objects and environment treated as a unified scene; lets robots interpret human behaviour, anticipate risk and decide in real time | Humanoid and collaborative robot makers; manufacturing, logistics, healthcare, aged care, mining, warehousing | 17 Aug 2026 | Not publicly disclosed (expected licensing) |
| Human Mesh Recovery (HMR) | Real-time 3D human body reconstruction; core capability of the Physical AI Platform | Robotics developers | Technical paper, 30 Sep 2026 | — |
| Advanced Robotics Development Contract | Robotics proof-of-concept for a factory-automation environment | Unnamed global industrial technology company (factory automation, human–robot interaction) | 12 Aug 2026 | Contract value not publicly disclosed |
Financial Narrative
Basis: IFRS (AASB) audited figures for FY2022–FY2025 from the FY2023 Annual Report and FY2025 Annual Financial Report. FY2026 is the unaudited trading update (adjusted only). EBITDA (IFRS-derived) is calculated as operating loss plus depreciation, amortisation and impairment, an analyst calculation.
Income statement
Notes:
Definitions of EBITDA: Adjusted EBITDA deducts capitalised development costs, so it is materially worse than IFRS EBITDA in high-capitalisation years. FY2024 adjusted EBITDA was –US$38.9m versus IFRS-derived –US$17.9m.
Older Sharecast-reported EBITDA: Sharecast reported company EBITDA losses of US$10.5m (FY2022), US$9.3m (FY2023) and US$17.9m (FY2024) on the earlier definition. The FY2023 and FY2024 figures broadly match the analyst-derived numbers above.
EPS: FY2022–FY2023 EPS is calculated from reported net loss and weighted shares (4,042.9m and 4,156.0m). The FY2023 report displays "(0.004)", a dollar figure.
FY2026 IFRS items: Not yet disclosed (audited results expected by end-November 2026).
H1 FY2026 IFRS: (unaudited): revenue US$22.9m, gross profit US$13.3m (58% margin), operating loss US$18.8m, pre-tax loss US$22.8m, net loss US$22.5m, EPS –0.46 US cents.
Margins (%)
Revenue CAGR
Balance sheet
FY2026 cash is from the trading update. The FY2026 full balance sheet is not yet disclosed. At 31 December 2025 (unaudited):
At 30 June 2026, trade receivables and royalties owed were US$25.3m and the A$11m (US$7.8m) receivables facility was undrawn.
Cash flow
FY2024 operating cash flow benefited from US$25.25m of one-off licensing receipts (Caterpillar, Magna, Collins). FY2025 included US$3.75m of such receipts. H1 FY2026: operating cash flow –US$15.4m and investing –US$2.6m. The company reports positive cash flow in H2 FY2026, helped by the US$14.1m accelerated royalty received in January 2026.
Ratios
ROE and ROA use average balances. ROIC, net debt/EBITDA and interest coverage are not meaningful because EBIT and EBITDA are negative; they are left blank. The cash conversion cycle is not publicly disclosed (payables and inventory days are not reported). DSO is an analyst estimate on year-end trade and other receivables. The H1 FY2026 current ratio was 0.42x after reclassification of the CLN.
Commentary on trends, inflections and drivers
Revenue: growth, a reset, then an inflection.
FY2022→FY2023 (+48%): Growth came from OEM royalties (+91%) and US$11.3m of new exclusivity licence income (Magna mirror and Collins Aerospace).
FY2024 (+17%): Aftermarket hardware peaked at US$18.9m, including the sell-down of Guardian Generation 2 units, and Caterpillar paid US$5.0m in licence fees.
FY2025 (–22% adjusted): Revenue reset as Guardian Gen 3 production delays cut hardware revenue by 66% and licence income rolled off. IFRS revenue (US$62.3m) was flattered by US$10.2m of minimum-guarantee royalty recognised upfront when one programme started production.
FY2026 (+45%): The inflection was entirely back-half weighted (H2 US$52.9m vs H1 US$23.4m). It was driven by EU GSR-led production, with quarterly automotive volumes of 0.51m, 0.58m, 1.28m and 2.11m units.
Margins. Gross margin rose from 45% (FY2022) to 63% (FY2025) and 58% (H1 FY2026). This purely reflects mix: royalties and licences grew while hardware shrank. With adjusted royalties now 44% of revenue, H2 FY2026 gross margin is likely materially higher, but the figure is not yet disclosed.
Costs. Adjusted operating expenses peaked at US$72.3m in FY2024 and fell to US$62.2m in FY2025. They were US$27.7m in H1 FY2026 (–14% YoY) following the March 2025 restructuring, which removed about US$12m of annualised cost. Headcount fell from 455 to 353 (December to December).
Capitalisation policy. Capitalised development fell from US$22.9m (FY2024) to US$17.1m (FY2025) and just US$2.4m in H1 FY2026, while amortisation rose to US$9.3m in FY2025. This flips the earnings-quality picture. Expensed R&D now hits IFRS earnings, which explains why the H1 FY2026 IFRS loss (US$22.5m) widened even as adjusted EBITDA improved by US$4.0m.
Balance sheet. Equity fell from US$73.8m (FY2022) to US$21.2m (December 2025). Intangibles (US$68.4m) are now more than three times book equity. The Magna CLN accretes at an effective 11.8–13.1%, with accrued interest of US$13.7m by June 2025. It is now the dominant liability; undiscounted contractual repayment was US$61.9m on the FY2025 maturity profile.
Cash. Cash fell to US$3.4m in December 2025 and recovered only to US$4.3m in June 2026, despite the US$14.1m accelerated royalty. The working-capital build (receivables and royalties owed of US$25.3m) shows that royalty growth consumes cash before it releases it.
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Segment Overview
| Segment | Contents | Products/services | Channel |
|---|---|---|---|
OEM | Automotive and Aviation business units | DMS/OMS software licences, per-vehicle royalties, NRE, exclusivity licences (Magna, Collins), small hardware | Tier 1 suppliers |
Aftermarket | Fleet and Off-Road business units | Guardian hardware and installation, driver-monitoring subscription, Caterpillar licence/NRE, Guardian BdMS (AV) | Direct and indirect to fleet operators |
Segment revenue (USD Mn)
| Segment revenue (USD Mn) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OEM | 10.5 | 26.7 | 26.5 | 28.0 | — |
Aftermarket | 28.5 | 31.1 | 41.1 | 24.8 | — |
Total adjusted revenue | 39.0 | 57.8 | 67.6 | 52.8 | 76.3 |
Segment share (%)
| Segment share (%) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
OEM | 27.0 | 46.2 | 39.2 | 53.0 |
Aftermarket | 73.0 | 53.8 | 60.8 | 47.0 |
Segment growth (%)
| Segment growth (%) | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
OEM | 154 | -1 | 5 | — |
Aftermarket | 9 | 32 | -40 | — |
Total adjusted | 48 | 17 | -22 | 45 |
Segment adjusted EBITDA (USD Mn)
| Segment adjusted EBITDA (USD Mn) | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
OEM | -19.1 | -15.3 | — |
Aftermarket | -19.8 | -14.7 | — |
Group adjusted EBITDA | -38.9 | -30.1 | -2.5 |
Segment profit (USD Mn)
| Segment profit (USD Mn) | FY2022 | FY2023 |
|---|---|---|
OEM | -9.6 | -0.2 |
Aftermarket | 2.3 | -3.3 |
Unallocated | -11.2 | -12.1 |
Group net loss | -18.6 | -15.5 |
Segment adjusted EBITDA margin (%)
| Segment adjusted EBITDA margin (%) | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
OEM | -71.8 | -54.9 |
Aftermarket | -48.3 | -59.3 |
Group | -57.5 | -56.9 |
OEM revenue line (USD Mn)
| OEM revenue line (USD Mn) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Royalties (adjusted) | 3.96 | 7.58 | 10.63 | 14.41 | 33.90 |
Non-recurring engineering | 5.85 | 6.77 | 9.24 | 9.38 | — |
Licensing | 0.00 | 11.72 | 6.04 | 3.19 | — |
Hardware and installations | 0.71 | 0.64 | 0.61 | 0.98 | — |
Aftermarket revenue line (USD Mn)
| Aftermarket revenue line (USD Mn) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Driver monitoring (subscription) | 9.51 | 11.12 | 12.43 | 13.56 |
Hardware and installations | 14.72 | 14.50 | 18.90 | 6.44 |
Royalties (Caterpillar) | 3.63 | 2.39 | 3.46 | 0.00 |
Licensing | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.00 | 3.48 |
NRE / consulting | 0.62 | 3.07 | 1.30 | 1.34 |
Income Statement and Per-Share Data
| Metric | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue IFRS (USD Mn) | 39.0 | 57.8 | 67.6 | 62.3 | — |
Adjusted revenue (USD Mn) | 39.0 | 57.8 | 67.6 | 52.8 | 76.3 |
Cost of sales (USD Mn) | -21.5 | -28.9 | -36.1 | -23.1 | — |
Gross profit (USD Mn) | 17.5 | 28.9 | 31.5 | 39.2 | — |
Operating loss / EBIT (USD Mn) | -18.5 | -13.7 | -26.9 | -18.7 | — |
D&A (USD Mn) | 2.1 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 12.8 | — |
EBITDA IFRS-derived (USD Mn) | -16.4 | -9.7 | -17.9 | -5.9 | — |
Adjusted EBITDA (USD Mn) | — | — | -38.9 | -30.1 | -2.5 |
Net finance costs (USD Mn) | 0.0 | -1.9 | -5.3 | -7.0 | — |
Pre-tax loss (USD Mn) | -18.5 | -15.6 | -32.2 | -25.8 | — |
Income tax benefit/(expense) (USD Mn) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | — |
Net loss (USD Mn) | -18.6 | -15.5 | -31.3 | -25.3 | — |
EPS basic (US cents) | -0.46 | -0.37 | -0.75 | -0.56 | — |
EPS diluted (US cents) | -0.46 | -0.37 | -0.75 | -0.56 | — |
Dividends per share (US cents) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Margin (%)
| Margin (%) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin (IFRS) | 44.9 | 50.0 | 46.6 | 62.9 | — |
Operating margin (IFRS) | -47.4 | -23.7 | -39.7 | -30.0 | — |
EBITDA margin (IFRS-derived) | -42.1 | -16.8 | -26.5 | -9.5 | — |
Adjusted EBITDA margin (on adjusted revenue) | — | — | -57.5 | -56.9 | -3.3 |
Net margin (IFRS) | -47.6 | -26.9 | -46.2 | -40.5 | — |
Financial Analysis
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
IFRS revenue CAGR FY2022–FY2025 (3 years) | ≈16.9% |
Adjusted revenue CAGR FY2022–FY2026 (4 years) | ≈18.3% |
Balance Sheet
| Metric | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total assets (USD Mn) | 95.0 | 133.1 | 130.3 | 131.3 | — |
Cash & equivalents (USD Mn) | 40.5 | 36.1 | 22.8 | 22.6 | 4.3 |
Trade & other receivables (USD Mn) | 18.6 | 27.0 | 25.3 | 9.1 | — |
Short-term borrowings (USD Mn) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — |
Long-term borrowings — Magna CLN (USD Mn) | 0.0 | 40.3 | 45.7 | 51.3 | — |
Lease liabilities (USD Mn) | 3.7 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 4.3 | — |
Net debt excl. leases (USD Mn) | -40.5 | 4.2 | 22.9 | 28.8 | — |
Total equity (USD Mn) | 73.8 | 66.5 | 37.0 | 43.3 | — |
Goodwill & intangibles (USD Mn) | 23.6 | 45.1 | 61.3 | 71.6 | — |
Of which goodwill (USD Mn) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | — |
Working capital — CA minus CL (USD Mn) | 48.0 | 60.9 | 28.6 | 25.4 | — |
Accumulated losses (USD Mn) | -170.0 | -185.5 | -216.8 | -242.1 | — |
Item At 31 Dec 2025 Details
| Item at 31 Dec 2025 | Value |
|---|---|
Total assets | US$109.5m |
Cash | US$3.4m |
Borrowings | US$54.4m (all current) |
Equity | US$21.2m |
Intangibles | US$68.4m |
Working capital | –US$44.3m (CLN reclassified as current) |
Cash Flow
| Metric | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating cash flow (USD Mn) | -11.5 | -25.0 | 12.1 | -12.3 | — |
Capitalised development (USD Mn) | -18.6 | -23.7 | -22.9 | -17.1 | — |
PP&E + patents/licences capex (USD Mn) | -1.6 | -2.0 | -1.1 | -0.4 | — |
Total capex incl. capitalised R&D (USD Mn) | -20.2 | -25.6 | -24.0 | -17.4 | — |
Free cash flow (OCF minus total capex) (USD Mn) | -31.7 | -50.7 | -11.9 | -29.7 | — |
Adjusted cash flow ex one-off licences (company) (USD Mn) | — | — | -37.2 | -33.5 | — |
Equity issued, net (USD Mn) | 39.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 31.2 | — |
Borrowings drawn, net of costs (USD Mn) | 0.0 | 46.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — |
Dividends paid (USD Mn) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Buybacks (USD Mn) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Returns & Leverage Ratios (%) and Financial Ratios (x)
| Ratio | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
ROE (%) | -29.1 | -22.1 | -60.4 | -63.0 |
ROA (%) | -22.5 | -13.6 | -23.8 | -19.3 |
Current ratio (x) | 3.68 | 3.85 | 1.87 | 2.17 |
Debt/equity (borrowings, x) | 0.00 | 0.61 | 1.24 | 1.19 |
Asset turnover (x) | 0.47 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.48 |
Days sales outstanding (days) | 174 | 171 | 137 | 53 |
Region revenue (USD Mn)
| Region revenue (USD Mn) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Australia | 13.5 | 12.1 | 17.3 | 13.2 |
North America | 15.7 | 31.0 | 34.7 | 19.8 |
Asia-Pacific excl. Australia | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 3.7 |
Europe | 3.1 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 24.0 |
Other | 1.9 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 |
Total | 39.0 | 57.8 | 67.6 | 62.3 |
Region growth (%)
| Region growth (%) | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
Australia | -10 | 43 | -24 |
North America | 97 | 12 | -43 |
Asia-Pacific excl. Australia | -2 | -3 | -20 |
Europe | 81 | 46 | 196 |
Other | 126 | -33 | -42 |
Region share (%)
| Region share (%) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Australia | 34.6 | 21.0 | 25.7 | 21.2 |
North America | 40.3 | 53.7 | 51.3 | 31.7 |
Asia-Pacific excl. Australia | 12.2 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 5.9 |
Europe | 7.9 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 38.5 |
Other | 5.0 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 |
Share Price History
| Date | Price (p) | Context | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
6 Oct 2022 | 6.42 | Magna deal day | MoneyAM |
31 Oct 2024 | 4.32 | FY2024 results | Sharecast |
23 Dec 2024 | 4.84 | Mitsubishi deal (market cap £205m) | AJ Bell / Alliance News |
Late Mar–Apr 2025 | ~1.8–2.4 | Insider purchase prices (cycle low) | Simply Wall St insider data |
1 Jul 2026 | 4.39 | Refinancing update | Sharecast / HL |
11 Aug 2026 | 5.27 | FY2026 trading update (+11%) | Financial News |
17 Aug 2026 | 4.88 | Physical AI launch | Alliance News |
25 Sep 2026 | 4.08 | Post Magna extension | Kalkine |
1 Oct 2026 | 4.40 | Stifel note reference | Proactive |
15 Oct 2026 | 3.72 | Latest close | Yahoo / ADVFN |
Valuation Snapshot
| Multiple | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
Market capitalisation | ≈ £182m | 3.72p × ~4.92bn shares |
P/B | ≈ 6.5x | Market cap ≈ US$240m (indicative; assuming GBP/USD ≈ 1.32) vs Dec 2025 equity US$21.2m |
EV | ≈ US$290–300m | Indicative: market cap ≈ US$240m + CLN ≈ US$55–58m + leases ≈ US$3–4m – cash US$4.3m; FY2026 debt balances not yet disclosed |
EV / Sales | ≈ 3.8–3.9x | On FY2026 adjusted revenue of US$76.3m |
EV / EBITDA | Not meaningful (FY2026); ≈ 13x on annualised H2 FY2026 adjusted EBITDA midpoint (US$11.2m × 2) | Indicative only |
Capital Markets
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
Coverage | ~7 analysts (Simply Wall St) |
FY2026 consensus (pre-update) | Revenue US$79.7m; adjusted EBITDA –US$3.9m (company RNS footnote) |
Stifel | Buy, 10.5p target (2 Oct 2026; analyst Peter McNally) |
Dividends | None ever paid (nil FY2022–FY2025); no dividend policy |
Buybacks | None authorised or executed |
Credit ratings | None (no Moody's, S&P or Fitch ratings) |
Employee share plan | 2010 Executive Share Plan; 86.9m performance rights granted FY2025; 118.9m LTI shares issued Nov 2024 |
Capital Instruments
| Instrument | Amount | Maturity | Terms |
|---|---|---|---|
Magna convertible loan notes (two tranches) | US$47.5m principal; carrying value US$54.4m (Dec 2025); undiscounted contractual ≈ US$61.9m (FY2025 maturity table) | 30 Nov 2026 (interim; original 4 Oct 2026) | 6% and 8% coupons; effective rates 13.14% and 11.84%; conversion 9.95p (adjusted), max 386.4m shares, 9.99% ownership cap |
Receivables funding facility | Up to A$11m (US$7.8m); undrawn at 30 Jun 2026 | — | Working-capital facility |
Lease liabilities | US$4.3m (Jun 2025) | 3–10 year terms | 9–12% rates |
Asaphus deferred consideration | US$4.2m carrying (undiscounted US$4.9m) at Jun 2025 | Multi-year to ~FY2028 | Acquisition-related |
“—” = not publicly disclosed.
Analyst Conclusions
Management guidance
-
There is no quantified FY2027 guidance. Management says it exited FY2026 with strong momentum, especially in automotive royalties, and is focused on sustaining H2 FY2026 performance through FY2027.
-
Near-term corporate priorities are completing the long-term Magna CLN extension and publishing audited FY2026 results by end-November 2026.
Consensus growth expectations
As an indicative framework (analyst, not consensus): a full year at the Q4 FY2026 run-rate of about 2.1m units per quarter implies roughly 8.4m units, versus 4.5m in FY2026. At FY2026's implied average adjusted royalty of about US$7.6 per unit (US$33.9m ÷ 4.49m units, an analyst derivation that ignores mix and timing effects), that would be about US$64m of automotive royalties. Add Guardian ARR of about US$15m plus hardware, NRE and licensing. The result points to FY2027 revenue materially above FY2026, provided pricing and volumes hold.
Bull case
-
Operating leverage is real. A US$29.5m adjusted revenue increase in H2 versus H1 FY2026 produced about a US$25m swing in adjusted EBITDA (–US$13.7m to roughly +US$11.2m). That is near-80% incremental drop-through, consistent with a royalty model.
-
The volume base is locked in by regulation and incumbency. GSR ADDW applies to all new EU registrations from July 2026. The company already has a claimed >50% production share and 8.2m cars on road, plus the US$31m expansion entering production in H2 2026.
-
Optionality is underpriced. Japan (MELMB award plus two OEMs), US impairment regulation, AV BdMS (US$5.6m in orders) and Physical AI come on top of a market cap of only about £182m. A Magna extension rather than dilutive equity would de-risk the equity.
Bear case
-
The balance sheet is the business. Cash was US$4.3m against a US$54m+ CLN. Management rejected the one external package it had, and the conversion price (9.95p) is far above the share price. Any extension may carry higher cost, security or warrants, and the audit (and its going-concern language) is pending.
-
The quality of the "inflection" is debatable. Adjusted revenue strips AASB 15 guarantees, capitalised R&D collapsed (lifting adjusted EBITDA relative to economic R&D spend), and US$14.1m of cash was pulled forward from future royalties. Revenue also fell short of both consensus (US$79.7m) and earlier management aspirations (≥US$125m).
-
Commoditisation and concentration. Two customers drove about 45% of FY2025 revenue. Competitors such as Smart Eye are accelerating, and mandated DMS invites per-unit price compression just as volume arrives.
Key catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)
| Timing | Catalyst / monitorable |
|---|---|
| By 30 Nov 2026 | Long-term Magna CLN extension: term, coupon, conversion price, security, warrants, dilution |
| By end-Nov 2026 | Audited FY2026 results: IFRS revenue (incl. US$10.0m accelerated royalty treatment), net loss, going-concern statement, closing debt, FY2026 R&D capitalisation, CEO LTI outcome and contract status |
| Nov 2026 | Q1 FY2027 KPIs: whether the ~2.1m-unit quarterly production run-rate holds after GSR compliance builds |
| Nov–Dec 2026 | AGM; any Board additions (People, Culture & Remuneration chair vacancy) |
| H2 CY2026 | SOP of the US$31m programme expansion; Guardian unit sales vs FY2026 Q2/Q4 peaks |
| CY2026–27 | Robotics: conversion of the proof-of-concept into licensing; additional Physical AI customers |
| CY2026–27 | Japanese programmes progressing toward 2028 SOP; further MELMB-related awards |
| CY2027 | US NHTSA DMS rulemaking progress; Euro NCAP 2026+ protocol impacts |
| Ongoing | Receivables collection (US$25.3m at Jun 2026) and drawdown of the A$11m facility |
Concluding analyst verdict
Seeing Machines enters FY2027 with the most favourable operating set-up in its 26-year history and one of its most precarious balance sheets.
The operating case is genuine. The EU General Safety Regulation turned driver monitoring into a mandated component on 7 July 2026, and the company's incumbency shows up directly in its numbers:
-
Quarterly production rose from about 0.5m to 2.1m units within a year.
-
Adjusted royalties more than doubled to US$33.9m.
-
The cost base, cut by about US$12m in 2025, allowed H2 FY2026 adjusted EBITDA to turn decisively positive.
With a claimed majority share of current DMS production, 8.2m cars on road and a broadening Tier 1 roster, the royalty annuity looks durable. Programme expansions (US$31m, about US$10m) and Japanese awards extend its duration.
The financial case is less comfortable. Cash was just US$4.3m at June 2026, despite US$14.1m pulled forward from future royalties. The Magna note is now due on 30 November 2026, and the board judged the external refinancing package inferior to an extension. Audited results have slipped by two months. Equity is thin (US$21m at December 2025) relative to capitalised intangibles (US$68m). Earnings quality is clouded by adjusted-revenue treatment and a sharp fall in capitalised development.
Our assessment. The equity is a high-risk, high-convexity special situation. If Magna grants a multi-year extension on non-dilutive terms and Q1 FY2027 confirms the 2m-plus quarterly unit run-rate, the market should begin valuing the company as a cash-generative royalty business. At about 3.8x EV/sales on trailing adjusted revenue, that would leave meaningful upside, which the 10.5p Stifel target reflects. If the extension is costly, secured, or accompanied by warrants or an equity raise, near-term downside is material, since the share price trades well below the 9.95p conversion price.
On balance, the operating trajectory is the stronger signal. Investors, however, should treat the November 2026 refinancing and audited accounts as binary gating events before underwriting the inflection narrative.
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View Subscription PlansExecutive Leadership
Executive Leadership Team
| Name | Title | Tenure | Prior roles | Education |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Paul McGlone | CEO & Executive Director | CEO since 4 Jul 2019 (previously Head of Fleet/Aftermarket) | ~10 years at Brambles, incl. President CHEP Asia Pacific and Group VP Strategy, Planning & Innovation | Not disclosed in reviewed filings |
Martin Ive | CFO; Company Secretary (placeholding since 27 Jun 2025) | CFO since 14 Nov 2022 | Altium (2004–2022), incl. SVP Finance and CFO; Grant Thornton Sydney; UK audit training | BA (Hons) Accounting, Portsmouth; MBA, Macquarie Graduate School of Management; CA ANZ |
John Noble | Chief Technology Officer | Appointed during FY2025 reorganisation | Not disclosed in reviewed filings | — |
Dr Mike Lenné | Chief Safety Officer (previously Chief Science & Innovation Officer) | CSO from FY2025 reorganisation | Human-factors science leadership at Seeing Machines | Doctorate (title) |
Chief Operating Officer | COO | Appointed before/during H1 FY2026 | Name not disclosed in reviewed documents | — |
Sophie Nicoll | Corporate Communications | — | — | — |
“—” = not publicly disclosed.
Board of Directors
| Director | Role | Appointed | Independent | Committees | Background | Shares held (latest disclosed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kate Hill | Non-Executive Chair | NED 13 Dec 2018; Chair 22 Jul 2019 | Yes | Risk, Audit & Finance; People, Culture & Remuneration | 20+ years Deloitte audit partner; first woman on Deloitte Australia Board of Partners; NED of Count, Artrya, MedAdvisor, Hipages; BSc (Hons) Maths & Statistics, Bristol | 5,500,000 (Jun 2025) |
Paul McGlone | CEO & Executive Director | 4 Jul 2019 | No | — | See above | 9,590,882 shares; 12,000,000 options; 25,000,000 rights (Jun 2025) |
John Murray | Non-Executive Director | 1 Dec 2019 | Yes | Chair, Risk, Audit & Finance | Co-founder Technology Venture Partners; ex-Head of Investment Banking, Bank of America Asia; Chair of PainChek; Law (Hons), Edinburgh; CA | 832,291 |
Stephane Vedie | Non-Executive Director | 25 Oct 2023 | Yes | Risk, Audit & Finance; People, Culture & Remuneration | CEO LUXIT Group (Michigan); ex-CEO Varroc Lighting Systems and Magneti Marelli N.A.; 27 years in automotive | 1,789,500 (Jun 2025; bought 619,500 at ~2.3p in May 2025) |
Governance Detail
| Former director | Left | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Gerhard Vorster | 26 Nov 2025 AGM | Chaired People, Culture & Remuneration; ex-Deloitte Chief Strategy Officer APAC |
Michael Brown | 27 Mar 2025 | Lombard Odier nominee; non-independent |
Yong Kang (YK) Ng | Before 1 Jul 2024 | — |
Directors' Remuneration
| Person (USD K) | Salary/fees/bonus/leave | Superannuation | Share-based | Total FY2023 | Total FY2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kate Hill (Chair) | 103 | 11 | 0 | 114 | 109 |
Paul McGlone (CEO) | 505 | 18 | 235 | 758 | 815 |
YK Ng | 61 | 0 | 0 | 61 | 54 |
John Murray | 67 | 7 | 0 | 74 | 68 |
Gerhard Vorster | 67 | 7 | 0 | 74 | 63 |
Michael Brown | 61 | 0 | 0 | 61 | 54 |
Other KMP (aggregate) | 1,723 | 89 | 495 | 2,307 | 2,399 |
Major Shareholders
| Holder | Stake (%) | Date / source |
|---|---|---|
Mitsubishi Electric Mobility Corp. (Mitsubishi Electric Corp.) | ≈19.9 | Dec 2024 (Alliance News); described as largest shareholder by Simply Wall St (2026) |
Lombard Odier Asset Management (Europe) Ltd | 6.75 | TR-1, threshold crossed 17 Apr 2026 (down from 7.86%) |
V S International Venture Pte. Ltd. (V S Industry Berhad) | 3.84 | — |
Federated Hermes / Federated Investors | Notifiable holding | — |
Magna International | Not disclosed (CLN conversion capped at 9.99% beneficial ownership) | FY2025 AFR Note 20 |
Other institutions (aggregate) | ≈23.4 | Simply Wall St (Mar 2026) |
Individual insiders | ≈2.4 | Simply Wall St (Mar 2026) |
General public / retail | ≈50 | Simply Wall St (Mar 2026) |
Competitive Landscape
Competitors by Segment
| Segment | Competitor | Type | Positioning vs Seeing Machines |
|---|---|---|---|
Automotive DMS software | Smart Eye AB (Sweden) | Listed pure-play | Closest peer. Reports 24 OEM customers, about 370 DMS design wins and 125 car models in production (Feb 2026). Also wins mirror-integrated interior sensing programmes |
Automotive DMS software | Cipia (Israel) | Private | Software DMS/OMS for OEMs and aftermarket |
Automotive DMS software | Tobii (Sweden) — Autosense | Listed (diversified) | Interior sensing software |
Automotive DMS software | Jungo Connectivity (Israel) | Private | CoDriver DMS software |
Tier 1 integrated DMS | Valeo (also SM partner) | Tier 1 | Can source in-house or third-party perception |
Tier 1 integrated DMS | Bosch | Tier 1 | Integrated interior monitoring |
Tier 1 integrated DMS | Continental / Aumovio | Tier 1 | Cabin sensing modules |
Tier 1 integrated DMS | Aptiv, Denso, Forvia | Tier 1s | Integrated cabin and ADAS suites |
Fleet / aftermarket DMS | Lytx, Samsara, Netradyne, Nauto | Video telematics | Broader fleet safety platforms; large installed bases |
Off-road / mining fatigue | Hexagon, Optalert and others | Specialist | Mining fatigue and proximity systems |
Robotics perception | Large AI and robotics platform players | Various | Early-stage market; SM a new entrant |
Peer Comparison FY2026
| Metric | Seeing Machines | Smart Eye |
|---|---|---|
Latest FY revenue | US$76.3m adjusted (FY Jun-2026); US$62.3m IFRS (FY Jun-2025) | SEK 403.7m (CY2025) |
Revenue growth | +45% adjusted (FY2026) | +14% reported / +21% organic (CY2025); H1 2026 +47% |
Gross margin | 63% (FY2025 IFRS); 58% (H1 FY2026) | ≈87% (CY2025: SEK 350.6m GP / 403.7m) |
EBITDA | Adjusted –US$2.0m to –US$3.0m (FY2026 guide); H2 positive | +SEK 5m (CY2025) |
R&D intensity | 58% of revenue (FY2025, total R&D incl. capitalised) | — |
DMS automotive footprint |
| 125 car models in production; 24 OEMs |
