Senestech Inc.

Basis: Audited 10-K figures. FY2021–FY2022 come from the FY2022 10-K; FY2023 from the FY2023 10-K; FY2024–FY2025 from the FY2025 10-K. FY2021 revenue includes a USD 24K grant (product revenue was USD 576K).

Income statement

Notes: - FY2021 other income includes USD 646K of PPP loan forgiveness (10-K FY2022).

• There is no income tax expense in any year, because a full valuation allowance applies.

• Company-defined Adjusted EBITDA was USD −5.8 million in FY2024 and USD −5.3 million in FY2025 (PR 12 Mar 2026).

Adjusted net loss: was USD −5.6 million in FY2025. It excludes USD 631K of one-time legal expense and USD 135K of non-cash lease expense.

Margins and growth (%)

The company's own rounding of FY2022 growth is 70%.

Revenue CAGR:

• FY2021–FY2025 (4 years): about 38.7%. On product revenue only (USD 576K base), it is about 40.1%.

• FY2022–FY2025 (3 years): about 29.6%.

Per-share data

Source: 10-K FY2025. EPS for FY2021–FY2023 is not shown on a comparable basis. Cumulative reverse splits of about 1-for-2,400 since 2022 (1:20, 1:12, 1:10) make originally reported figures non-comparable. Later filings did not retroactively restate FY2021–FY2022. Basic and diluted EPS are identical in all years because of losses.

Interim and quarterly trend

Sources: - Q1 2025, Q2 2025, Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 come from 10-Qs.

• Q3 2025 revenue, gross margin (62.8%) and net loss (about USD 1.3 million) come from the 8-K of 10 Nov 2025. Q3 2025 gross profit is derived from that margin.

• Q4 2025 figures are derived as FY2025 less 9M 2025. They are approximate.

• Q4 2025 includes an estimated USD 200K revenue disruption from the Amazon transition (PR 12 Mar 2026).

Q2 2026 EPS: USD −0.35, versus USD −0.87 in Q2 2025.

Q1 2026 EPS: USD −0.39 per the 10-Q XBRL. One aggregator reported USD −0.31; the 10-Q figure is preferred.

Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA: USD −1.4 million, an improvement of about 15% QoQ (Quartr summary of the Q2 call).

TTM to 30 June 2026:

• Revenue USD 2,374K (USD 2,221K less H1 2025 of USD 1,110K plus H1 2026 of USD 1,263K).

• Net loss about USD 6,997K.

Balance sheet

30 June 2026 (10-Q Q2 2026):

• Cash: USD 5,080K. No short-term investments remained.

• Total assets: USD 9,420K.

• Total liabilities: USD 3,369K.

• Equity: USD 6,051K.

• Notes payable: USD 176K. These are equipment notes at a weighted-average rate of 10.4%.

• Operating lease liability: USD 2,403K.

• Accumulated deficit: USD 146,375K.

Cash flow

H1 2026 (10-Q Q2 2026):

• Operating cash flow: USD −3,638K, compared with USD −2,707K in H1 2025.

• Capex: nil.

• Treasury maturities provided USD 1,000K.

• ATM proceeds: USD 173K net.

• Cash fell by USD 2,495K.

• After quarter-end (through 5 Aug 2026), a further 120,116 ATM shares were sold for USD 182K gross.

• Remaining ATM capacity at 30 June 2026 was about USD 7.3 million.

Ratios

Ratios that are not meaningful:

ROIC: Invested capital (equity plus debt less cash) is small or negative in most years, and NOPAT is deeply negative. For example, FY2025 invested capital was about USD 1.2 million against an operating loss of USD 6.5 million.

Net debt / EBITDA: Net debt is negative (net cash) and EBITDA is negative.

Interest coverage: Interest expense was only USD 22K in FY2024–FY2025, against operating losses.

Lease-adjusted leverage: Including FY2025 operating leases, debt to equity would be about 0.28x.

Commentary: trends, inflections and drivers

Revenue.

• Revenue grew 3.7x between FY2021 and FY2025, from a very low base.

• The FY2024 inflection (+56%) was entirely Evolve. That launch replaced a ContraPest business whose growth had stalled at about USD 1.0–1.2 million.

• FY2025 growth slowed to 20%. Management attributes about 10 percentage points of the slowdown to the Q4 2025 Amazon transition, which cost about USD 200K. Excluding it, growth would have been about 30% (PR 12 Mar 2026).

• The 2026 trajectory shows a stronger second-quarter step-up: Q2 2026 was +56% QoQ and +23% YoY. H1 2026 growth was only +14% because B2B fell 29%.

Gross margin.

• Gross margin rose from 40.7% in FY2021 to 62.5% in FY2025, then to 73.6% in Q2 2026. This is the clearest positive trend in the dataset.

• Drivers include product mix (Evolve uses a cheap food-grade active ingredient, while ContraPest relies on costly purified triptolide) and the end of development-stage raw-material pricing in Q1 2024.

• From 2026, selling directly on Amazon lets the company capture retail price. Marketplace fees then move into SG&A: USD 76K of retailer and third-party fees in Q2 2026. Investors should therefore watch contribution margin, not gross margin alone.

Operating expenses.

• Total opex fell from USD 10.1 million (FY2022) to USD 7.3 million (FY2024). It then rose to USD 7.9 million in FY2025 and is running at about USD 9.8 million annualized in H1 2026 (USD 4.9 million).

2026 non-recurring items: about USD 780K of leadership-succession and legal costs in H1 2026. Severance was USD 503K per the 10-Q.

• The Q1 2026 press release cites USD 443K of Q1 severance, and the 10-Q cites USD 273K in Q2. These cannot be fully reconciled to the 10-Q's H1 figure of USD 503K. The difference probably reflects classification.

Board compensation: rose by USD 201K in H1 2026, because the board grew and fee rates went up in July 2025.

R&D: has stabilized at about USD 1.7 million a year. A large part is facility and manufacturing overhead classified as R&D (10-Q Q2 2026 breakdown).

Cash burn and funding.

• Free cash flow has been between USD −5.9 million and −8.8 million in every year. Burn per year improved steadily from FY2022 to FY2025, but H1 2026 burn (USD 3.6 million) is above the H1 2025 pace (USD 2.7 million).

• Funding has come almost entirely from dilution: USD 41 million of equity and warrant proceeds over FY2021–FY2025. The cumulative total is USD 117.2 million since inception (10-Q Q2 2026).

• The share count rose about 5x in 2025 alone, from 1.04 million to 5.22 million shares.

Going concern.

• The Q2 2026 10-Q states that cash plus anticipated revenue funds operations only through the end of Q1 2027.

• Because that is less than 12 months, management performed an ASC 205-40 going-concern evaluation. It concluded that its plans, including ATM sales, alleviate substantial doubt.

• This is a material deterioration from the March 2026 guidance of runway through about Q2 2027.

Management guidance

• No formal revenue or earnings guidance.

Runway: current cash plus anticipated revenue funds operations through the end of Q1 2027 (10-Q Q2 2026).

Qualitative expectations: - B2B and ContraPest sales to recover after the sales transition;

• consulting and transition costs to moderate;

• subscriptions and Amazon to deliver growing recurring revenue;

• management sees cash-flow breakeven "coming into view" (August 2026 investor summit).

Consensus expectations

No reliable FY2026 or FY2027 consensus was identified.

Bull case

1. Unit economics have flipped. Gross margin of 73.6% on record Q2 revenue of USD 770K, plus July e-commerce of USD 245K (+19% MoM), suggests a DTC run-rate approaching USD 3 million a year from e-commerce alone. If B2B returns to its 2025 level of about USD 400K per quarter, quarterly revenue of USD 1.0 million or more is plausible within a year.

2. Regulation is moving in SenesTech's favor. EPA's ESA-driven mitigations for 11 rodenticide active ingredients and municipal rat-contraception programs create institutional demand for the only registered fertility-control tools. The NYC, Chicago, Baltimore and Texas evidence supports conversion.

3. The valuation is near cash. At USD 0.82–1.00 per share, EV is near zero and P/B is below 1x. Any credible path to breakeven, a strategic licensing deal, or acquisition interest from a large rodenticide or service player could re-rate the shares sharply.

Bear case

1. The funding gap is existential. H1 2026 cash burn was USD 3.6 million, leaving USD 5.1 million at June 2026 and runway to Q1 2027. ATM issuance at under USD 1 implies heavy dilution. The history of three reverse splits since 2022 and USD 117 million raised for USD 9 million of cumulative product sales argues for scepticism.

2. Growth quality is narrow. H1 2026 revenue grew only 14%. Amazon is 45% of quarterly revenue, B2B fell 29%, and a USD 81K international carryover flattered Q1. Q3 consensus implies roughly zero YoY growth.

3. Moats are thin and leadership is in flux. Evolve's composition is on its label and its patent is pending. ContraPest's data exclusivity lapsed in August 2026. The new CEO's background is consumer packaged goods rather than pest control, and costs in 2026 have risen, not fallen.

Key catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)

Concluding analyst verdict

SenesTech has finally found a product with credible economics after nearly two decades. Evolve has turned a stalled, high-cost ContraPest franchise into a business with gross margins above 70%. Bringing Amazon in-house in 2026 delivered the company's best quarter on record: USD 770K of revenue at a 73.6% gross margin. The strategic logic is sound:

• the regulatory direction favors non-lethal tools;

• municipal and agricultural field data are accumulating;

• a subscription-led DTC model suits a product that must be used continuously to work.

The investment problem is time and money, not science. At TTM revenue of USD 2.4 million and an H1 2026 operating expense run-rate near USD 9.8 million, the company would need roughly a three- to four-fold increase in revenue at current margins to break even. Management itself guides runway only to the end of Q1 2027.

The 2026 cost base was inflated by severance, legal and board expenses. That gives some room for operating leverage as these roll off. However, the B2B franchise is in the middle of a rebuild, and Amazon now dominates the revenue mix. The equity has fallen more than 70% in a year and trades below USD 1.00, which reopens the Nasdaq compliance and reverse-split cycle the company has repeated three times since 2022.

Our synthesis: SenesTech is a high-risk, binary micro-cap. The likeliest near-term path is further dilutive financing at depressed prices. Upside depends on three things:

• B2B and municipal recovery visible in the Q3 and Q4 2026 numbers;

• e-commerce sustaining at least 15% month-on-month momentum through the seasonally softer winter;

• a strategic partnership or licensing deal that brings in non-dilutive capital.

Absent clear evidence of all three by the Q4 2026 report, the risk-reward is dominated by financing risk. Investors should treat the near-cash valuation as a reflection of that risk rather than as a margin of safety.

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End of dossier: Data limitations:

• Geographic revenue, the full institutional top-10 holder list, ESG ratings, patent counts, employee counts before 2025, and current-day market data were not available from primary sources. They are flagged as such above.