SiriusPoint Ltd.

Income statement

Sources and notes: Total revenues and total assets are from an aggregator (Investing.com) and are consistent with filed totals where cross-checked (FY2023 total assets $12,871.5m confirmed in Q1 2024 10-Q; FY2024 ~$12.5bn confirmed in 2025 proxy). Net income available to SiriusPoint from Schedule II of the FY2023 and FY2025 10-Ks. FY2023 and FY2024 common figures derived by deducting ~$16m of Series B preference dividends (the same derivation reproduces the reported FY2025 $444m). FY2024 operating EPS derived from the reported 49% increase to $2.55. SiriusPoint has not paid a common dividend (one data vendor shows a 0.55% yield — discrepancy; primary sources show no common dividend, and management said in Q1 2026 that buybacks are the main capital-return avenue with dividends a possible future discussion).

Not applicable for insurers: gross profit, EBITDA, EBITDA margin, gross margin. The closest analogues are underwriting income and operating income.

Margins and growth

Total revenue CAGR FY2021–FY2025: ~8.8% (derived). GWP grew 16.1% in 2025 (NWP +19%).

Balance sheet: notes and sources

Notes: FY2025 common equity "increased by $532m to $2.3bn" (Q4 2025 call), implying ~$1.77bn at FY2024 (the 2025 proxy rounds FY2024 common equity to $1.7bn and total capital to $2.6bn — minor rounding discrepancy). Working capital is not a meaningful insurer metric.

Cash flow and capital return

FY2024 repurchase reflects GAAP accounting of the CM Bermuda transaction (54.8m shares, $776.5m including $483m paid at the February 2025 closing). FY2025: 500,000 shares from Loeb at $14.00. 2026 YTD: $295m of capital returned, comprising ~$200m preference redemption and $95m of common buybacks (Q2 2026 release). Capex is immaterial for an insurer.

Ratios

ROIC, current ratio, interest coverage, asset turnover and cash conversion cycle are not standard insurer disclosures; not computed. BSCR 218% was the pro forma figure after the CM Bermuda payments (Q3 2024); 242% at Q1 2026.

2026 quarterly snapshot

Q2 2026 tangible BVPS: $17.98. H1 2026 net income +44% YoY; operating EPS +17%.

Commentary on trends, inflections and drivers

2021–2022: the investment-volatility era. The merged company inherited Third Point Re's large allocation to Third Point-managed funds. Related-party fund results swung from +$304.0m (2021) to –$210.5m (2022), driving total investment results from +$312.5m to –$322.7m and a 2022 net loss of $386.8m (FY2022 10-K). Underwriting was also weak, and the stock fell to $4.07 in August 2022.

2023: inflection. Under new management, investments were repositioned into high-grade fixed income (AFS debt income rose from $35.1m in 2022 to $181.6m in 2023), a 2023 LPT added a one-off $102m benefit, and net income reached $354.8m with operating ROE of 12.8%.

2024: clean-up year. Underlying earnings improved (operating ROE 14.6%; attritional combined ratio improved 2.7 points) but GAAP income fell to $199.9m because of the Enstar LPT, MGA investment write-downs (other long-term investment losses of $72.2m) and CM Bermuda repurchase accounting.

2025: harvest. GWP +16%, core underwriting income +7% to $214m, operating EPS +49% to $2.55 and operating ROE 16.2% — above target — despite $74.4m of cat losses (mainly California wildfires). The Armada sale ($250m) produced a large Q4 GAAP gain (Q4 ROE 44.9%) and diluted BVPS rose 28%.

2026 YTD: normalising. Q1 delivered the best core combined ratio in six quarters (88.9%) and the Arcadian gain; Q2 showed slower earned-premium growth (business-mix shift and aggregate reinsurance cost) and a 91.4% core combined ratio. GAAP ROE has normalised toward the 12–15% target as one-off gains roll off.

Management guidance

2026 GWP growth of 5–10%; through-the-cycle operating ROE of 12–15%; up to $174m of 2026 buybacks; consolidated MGA net services fee income of ~$35–40m; earned-premium growth expected to accelerate in H2 2026 and 2027 as longer-duration business earns through.

Consensus expectations

Forward P/E of ~8.8x on the $25 share price implies consensus forward EPS of roughly $2.85 (derived), i.e., mid-teens growth over 2025 operating EPS of $2.55.

Bull case

1. Re-rating to peer multiples: at ~1.3x book with a 14–16% operating ROE and newly A-rated paper, SiriusPoint trades at a discount to A-rated peers; each 0.2x of P/B re-rating is worth ~$4 per share.

2. Lower-volatility earnings mix: A&H, Surety and IMG fees now dominate growth, and cat is ~5% of mix — supports more stable book-value compounding (diluted BVPS +28% in 2025, +8% ex-AOCI in H1 2026).

3. Capital return capacity: $1.06bn of liquidity, 242% BSCR and leverage near 23% fund ongoing buybacks below intrinsic value plus selective IMG bolt-ons.

Bear case

1. Peak-cycle earnings: reinsurance pricing is softening; 2025–H1 2026 returns benefited from benign cat and MGA gains, and Q2 2026 operating ROE (13.8%) already sits mid-range.

2. Casualty and delegated-authority risk: a 32% casualty book written heavily through MGAs is exposed to social inflation and partner-quality issues; prior LPTs show reserving has needed repair before.

3. Sub-scale with a returns gap: Q1 2026 operating ROE of 15.3% trails RenRe (22%) and Hamilton (24.1%); earned-premium drag and new-unit build costs could pressure margins.

Catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)

• Q3 2026 results (~29 Oct 2026): cat losses from the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season; core CR versus 90–92% band.

• 1 January 2027 reinsurance renewals: pricing and SiriusPoint's further Reinsurance pull-back.

• World Nomads closing and IMG integration; services income trajectory.

• Buyback execution against the $174m commitment; any new authorisation or initiation of a dividend.

• Reserve development, especially casualty.

• COO-led transformation and technology investment disclosures.

• FY2026 results (Feb 2027) and any updated targets.

Concluding analyst verdict

SiriusPoint has accomplished what few post-merger reinsurers manage: a genuine strategic and financial reset inside four years. The evidence is quantitative, not rhetorical. Operating ROE has risen three years running to 16.2%; the core combined ratio has held in a narrow ~89–93% band since mid-2023; diluted book value per share rose 28% in 2025; leverage is at an all-time low; and the company now carries A-range ratings from all three principal agencies. The governance overhang that defined the stock in 2021–2024 — a state-linked controlling shareholder and a founder-investor in open conflict with management — has been removed, and the MGA portfolio has been monetised at attractive multiples while preserving premium flow through long-term capacity deals.

The investment debate therefore shifts from "survival and clean-up" to "quality and durability of earnings through a softening cycle." Here the picture is more nuanced. Management's deliberate shrinkage of Reinsurance is sensible, but it puts the growth burden on Insurance & Services, where a casualty-heavy, MGA-sourced book demands rigorous oversight. The Q2 2026 combined ratio uptick and earned-premium drag are modest but worth watching, and returns still trail the sector's best performers.

On balance, the risk-reward appears favourable. At roughly 1.3x diluted book (ex-AOCI) and under 10x 2025 operating earnings, the shares discount a mid-teens ROE business with excess capital, an under-recognised fee platform (IMG and assistance assets carried near $110m), and a buyback that is accretive at current prices. The key risks are cyclical (pricing, catastrophes) and reserve-related rather than structural. We regard SiriusPoint as a credible compounder in transition: investors who accept moderate cycle risk are paid via book-value growth and buybacks, with upside from a multiple re-rating if the company proves it can sustain 12–15%+ operating ROE through the 2027 renewal season. Verdict: constructive / accumulate on weakness, contingent on Q3 2026 cat performance and January 2027 renewal discipline.