Sunrun Overview
Sunrun is the largest residential solar and battery storage provider in the United States and, increasingly, something structurally different from an installer: a distributed independent power producer. Its economic engine is not the sale of hardware but the origination of 20–25 year residential energy subscriptions, which it finances through tax equity, asset-backed securitisation and warehouse debt, and retains on balance sheet as long-lived contracted cash flows. As of mid-2026 it serves over 1.1 million customers across 22 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, and operates 4.6 GWh of networked battery capacity — the largest aggregated residential storage fleet in the country. The strategic question is no longer whether Sunrun survives the policy shift, but whether its fleet can be monetised as grid capacity and, more speculatively, as distributed compute.
The company's own characterisation
Sunrun describes itself in its FY2025 annual report and current investor materials as "America's largest provider of residential battery storage, solar, and home-to-grid power plants." Its self-description continues: "As the pioneer of home energy systems offered through a no-upfront-cost subscription model, Sunrun empowers customers nationwide with greater energy control, security, and independence. Sunrun supports the grid by providing on-demand dispatchable power that helps prevent blackouts and lower energy costs. Our long-term customer relationships generate recurring revenue and unlock additional value through ongoing product innovation and grid services." The company states it was formed in 2007 and pioneered residential solar service, and that it has sold its solar service in 22 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico.
The S&P Global Market Intelligence business description characterises the company as one that "designs, develops, installs, sells, owns, and maintains residential solar energy systems in the United States," which additionally "sells solar energy systems and products, such as panels and racking; and solar leads generated to customers," "offers battery storage along with solar energy systems; and sells services to commercial developers through multi-family and new homes," and "operates distributed electricity power plants."
Independent characterisation
Sunrun is best understood as three businesses stacked on one another, with the third only now emerging.
Business one — the origination and installation engine. Sunrun acquires residential customers through direct sales (in-house sales representatives, canvassing, retail partnerships, digital and mass media, referral) and through an affiliate/dealer channel of third-party sales and installation partners. It designs the system, procures modules, inverters and batteries from third-party suppliers, secures permits and utility interconnection, and installs. This is a working-capital-hungry, labour-intensive, geographically fragmented operation. It is not where the value accrues; it is the cost of acquiring the asset.
Business two — the balance-sheet business. For the majority of installations, Sunrun does not sell the system. It retains ownership and enters a Customer Agreement — either a lease (fixed monthly payment for the system) or a power purchase agreement (payment per kilowatt-hour generated) — typically for 20 to 25 years, with renewal options. It then leverages the contracted customer payment stream through non-recourse asset-backed securitisations and a senior revolving warehouse facility. The economic output of this business is the spread between the all-in cost to build and finance a system and the present value of the contracted subscription payments — what Sunrun calls Net Subscriber Value. This is a specialty-finance business wearing an installer's clothes, and it is the reason the balance sheet carries $15.2 billion of debt against a $2.4 billion equity market capitalisation.
Business three — the fleet monetisation layer. Because Sunrun owns and controls the batteries it installs, it can aggregate them and dispatch them. It markets these as "distributed power plants" (DPP), deliberately avoiding the more common "virtual power plant" terminology. As of 30 June 2026 the networked fleet stood at 4.6 GWh across programmes with utilities and grid operators. Management guides to approximately $40 million of GAAP gross revenue from this activity in 2026 with over $10 million of operating margin, and states the deployed asset base represents over $500 million in grid services present value. In July 2026 the company extended the same logic to a genuinely novel adjacency — placing AI inference compute nodes inside customer homes powered by existing solar and storage.
Revenue model and mix
Customer agreements: recurring lease and PPA payments from the retained subscription fleet. This is the annuity. It has grown every single year without exception and is the only line that has never declined.
Incentives: SREC sales, performance-based incentives, state and utility rebates, and grid services revenue. Small and roughly flat.
Energy systems: sales of complete solar and storage systems, including to third parties and, materially from FY2025, sales of systems built by Sunrun to third-party owners. This line is extraordinarily volatile.
Products: sales of components (panels, racking, inverters) and solar sales leads to third parties, largely a legacy of the AEE Solar distribution business and the affiliate ecosystem. In structural decline.
Value chain position, customers, end markets
Sunrun sits in the midstream-to-downstream position: it does not manufacture modules, inverters or cells, sourcing from suppliers including Canadian Solar, JinkoSolar and Silfab (modules), Enphase and SolarEdge (inverter architectures), and Tesla (Powerwall) and LG Energy Solution (batteries). Its proprietary assets are customer acquisition capability, installation and O&M scale, financing structures, the installed asset base, and the software layer that dispatches the fleet.
Customers are overwhelmingly residential homeowners in high-electricity-cost, high-outage-risk states — California, Texas, Puerto Rico, Arizona, Florida, New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada and others. Secondary end-markets are new-home builders and multi-family developers (systems sold or leased at construction), utilities and grid operators (capacity and demand-response contracts), and, from 2026, enterprise compute buyers and hyperscalers.
Strategy
Stated strategy — themes from management
Powell's FY2025 framing: "Sunrun is delivering innovative, storage-first energy offerings that protect American families from rising utility costs and an increasingly unreliable power grid. As we continue to scale our network of over one million customers, we are building a distributed power plant that we believe is critical in meeting the nation's urgent demand for more power. We are executing on this vital mission from a position of financial strength — generating strong margins and structurally generating cash."
Abajian's FY2025 framing: "We exceeded the midpoint of our Cash Generation guidance for the year and are on track for another strong year in 2026. Our disciplined margin management allowed us to generate strong Upfront Net Subscriber Values, representing a 7% margin for the full-year, a 6 percentage point improvement compared to the prior year. We have continued to strengthen our balance sheet, paying down $148 million of recourse debt while increasing our unrestricted cash balance by $248 million in the year."
Powell has additionally described Sunrun as "the largest Residential Independent Power Producer," positioning the company to meet power demand faster than the traditional grid can deliver — a deliberate reframing away from "solar installer" and toward "generation asset owner."
Four strategic pillars are discernible:
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Storage-first. Prioritise battery attachment over solar megawatt volume. Attachment rate rose from 60% (Q3 2024) to 70% (Q3 2025) to 71% (Q4 2025) to a record 74% (Q2 2026).
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Margin over volume. Accept lower installation share in exchange for higher Unit Contracted Subscriber Value and positive Cash Generation. Explicitly deprioritise the low-margin affiliate channel in favour of higher-margin direct sales.
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Fleet monetisation. Convert the installed battery base into a dispatchable capacity resource sold to utilities, grid operators and — via the Renew Home/Tesla structure — hyperscalers.
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Adjacency expansion. Distributed AI compute as a second, higher-margin revenue stream layered on the same physical footprint.
Strategic initiatives announced in the last 24 months
| Date | Initiative | Detail and strategic intent |
|---|---|---|
| Through 2024–25 | Storage-first repositioning | Deliberate mix shift; attachment rate up 14 points over eight quarters |
| Through 2025 | Distributed power plant scaling | Enrolment up fivefold to >100,000 customers; 18 programmes; 425 MW peak; ~18 GWh dispatched in the year |
| Dec 2025 | Working capital facility extension | Maturity extended one year to March 2028 — liquidity runway |
| Through 2025 | Recourse deleveraging | $148 million of recourse debt repaid in FY2025; a further $188 million reduced over the twelve months to June 2026, leaving $637 million of recourse debt against $712 million of unrestricted cash at Q2 2026 |
| 2025–2026 | Equipment safe harbor programme | Net investments in equipment to preserve ITC eligibility ahead of PFE restrictions; $22 million net in Q2 2026, $50–100 million guided for FY2026 |
| H1 2026 | Direct sales build-out | Over 1,500 sales representatives added year to date, replacing affiliate origination |
| 24 Jun 2026 | Renew Home / Tesla alliance | Non-binding LOI to aggregate >16 GW of flexible capacity: ~7.8 GW from Sunrun and Tesla residential batteries plus >9.0 GW of Renew Home thermostat demand response. Positioned as the largest VPP in the US, capable of supporting the equivalent of 17 large data centres at peak — targeting the "speed-to-power" bottleneck facing data centre developers stuck in interconnection queues |
| 8 Jul 2026 | Distributed AI compute pilot | Compute nodes in homes with Sunrun solar and storage; Sunrun coordinates sale of inference capacity to enterprise buyers while gathering operational data under varied conditions and rate structures |
| Ongoing | ABS programme execution | ~$1.5 billion of non-recourse asset-level debt raised in the first half of 2026, including a $267 million August 2026 securitisation priced at a 200bp spread — the tightest in approximately eighteen months |
Management's medium-term targets and guidance
| Metric | FY2026 guidance (initial, Feb 2026) | FY2026 guidance (revised, 5 Aug 2026) | Medium-term target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Generation (USD M) | 250 to 450 | 200 to 375 | not guided |
| Equipment safe harbor investment (USD M) | not guided | 50 to 100 | not guided |
| Aggregate Subscriber Value (USD B) | 4.8 to 5.2 | 4.6 to 4.9 | not guided |
| Distributed power plant GAAP gross revenue (USD M) | not guided | ~40 | "materially" above the 2026 baseline |
| Distributed power plant operating margin (USD M) | not guided | >10 | not guided |
| Dispatchable capacity (GWh) | not guided | 4.6 achieved at 30 Jun 2026 | >10 by end-2028 |
| Grid services present value (USD M) | not guided | >500 | not guided |
Explicit reasons given for the August 2026 downgrade: reduced affiliate channel volumes; a delayed ramp in direct sales activities; and modestly higher cost of capital driven by higher base interest rates, notwithstanding tighter securitisation spreads.
Products & Services
Sunrun does not maintain a conventional branded product catalogue in the manner of a hardware manufacturer. Its offerings are financing structures, service plans and system configurations built from third-party hardware. The catalogue below is organised by commercial construct.
Subscription offerings (Customer Agreements) — the core
Sunrun Monthly Lease. Fixed monthly payment for use of a Sunrun-owned solar system, typically over a 20–25 year term with renewal options. Sunrun retains ownership, claims the ITC and depreciation, and bears O&M, monitoring, insurance and repair obligations for the life of the agreement. Target customer: creditworthy homeowners in high-retail-rate utility territories who want bill savings without capital outlay. Pricing model: fixed monthly payment, frequently with a contractual annual escalator. Zero upfront cost is the headline proposition.
Sunrun Power Purchase Agreement (PPA). The customer pays a per-kilowatt-hour rate for electricity generated by the Sunrun-owned system rather than a fixed monthly fee. Same ownership, incentive and O&M structure as the lease. Target customer: homeowners in jurisdictions where PPA structures are permitted and where per-kWh economics are more favourable than a fixed lease. This is the original 2007 innovation.
Full-Amount (Prepaid) Lease. The customer prepays the lease in a single upfront payment for the full term. Sunrun retains ownership and the tax attributes. Target customer: cash-rich homeowners seeking maximum lifetime savings — and, post-25D, an important structure because it delivers a purchase-like experience while preserving Sunrun's 48E eligibility.
Storage offerings
| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storage attachment rate (%) | 70 | 71 | 74 |
| Cumulative systems installed (thousands) | 217 | 237 | — |
| Networked storage capacity (GWh) | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.6 |
Sunrun home battery storage (successor to the Brightbox brand). Solar-plus-storage systems combining rooftop PV with residential batteries, offered under the same lease/PPA structures. Launched originally as Brightbox in Hawaii in 2016. Batteries sourced principally from Tesla (Powerwall) with LG Energy Solution supplying alternative units historically. Capabilities: whole-home or partial-home backup, time-of-use arbitrage, self-consumption optimisation, and — critically — grid dispatch under Sunrun's control.
The storage attachment rate is the single most-watched operating metric at the company:
Storage-only offerings. Battery systems sold or leased to customers with existing solar. Terms not separately disclosed.
Grid services / Distributed Power Plants (DPP)
| Metric | FY2025 | H1 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Networked storage capacity (GWh) | 4.0 | 4.6 |
| DPP-enrolled customers (thousands) | 100 | — |
| Number of programmes | 18 | — |
| Peak dispatch capability (MW) | 425 | — |
| Energy dispatched in year (GWh) | 18 | — |
Sunrun aggregates its networked battery fleet and contracts dispatch capacity to utilities and system operators. It uses the term "distributed power plant" in preference to "virtual power plant," which management regards as passively connoted.
Disclosed operating parameters:
Named programme counterparties disclosed by management include NRG and Tesla in Texas, and a 425 MW dispatch capability referenced against California programmes including PG&E territory. Management guides to approximately $40 million of GAAP gross revenue in 2026 from this activity with over $10 million of operating margin, against a stated $500 million of grid services present value embedded in the deployed asset base. Target: over 10 GWh of dispatchable capacity online by end-2028, more than double the current fleet.
Distributed AI compute (pilot, launched 8 July 2026)
The newest and least proven offering. Sunrun places physical AI inference compute nodes in homes already equipped with Sunrun solar and battery storage, behind the meter, and coordinates the sale of inference capacity to enterprise compute buyers. The pilot follows a proof of concept that the company states demonstrated revenue generation and demand.
Stated strategic logic: a traditional data centre requires years to permit, build and interconnect, whereas Sunrun's distributed model can add inference capacity in a fraction of that time using energy infrastructure that already exists across a base of more than 1.1 million homes. Behind-the-meter placement is presented as mitigating exposure to rising utility rates, congested grids and interconnection queues. Homeowner economics have been characterised in third-party commentary as potentially "hundreds of dollars per month," though Sunrun has not itself published a homeowner revenue-share figure, and pilot scale has been characterised externally as on the order of 1.25 MW — a figure Sunrun has not confirmed.
Revenue model: not publicly disclosed. Contracted counterparties: not publicly disclosed. Management explicitly describes it as distinct from, though complementary to, the Renew Home/Tesla capacity agreement.
Component and channel offerings
Equipment distribution. Sale of panels, racking, inverters and balance-of-system components to third-party installers — the legacy of the 2013 AEE Solar acquisition. SnapNrack racking, acquired via Mainstream Energy in 2014, is the principal proprietary hardware brand. In structural decline; products revenue fell to $259.65 million in FY2025 from $424.47 million in FY2022.
Solar sales leads. Sunrun generates and sells qualified leads to third parties. Volumes and pricing not disclosed.
New homes and multi-family. Systems sold or leased to residential developers at construction. Not separately quantified in disclosure.
Pricing metrics disclosed at the unit level (Q2 2026)
| Metric | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|
| Unit Contracted Subscriber Value (USD) | ~55,000 |
| Upfront proceeds per subscriber (USD) | ~52,000 |
| Advance rate against contracted value (%) | 94 |
| Unit Contracted Subscriber Value YoY change (%) | +10 |
Financial Narrative
All figures in USD millions unless stated. Fiscal years end 31 December. Primary source: Sunrun Forms 10-K FY2021–FY2025 as compiled by Fiscal.ai (via StockAnalysis, last updated 5 August 2026) and S&P Global Market Intelligence. TTM = twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Income statement: notes and sources
Pre-tax income and consolidated net loss are derived from disclosed pretax and profit margins applied to revenue; they are approximations of the as-filed lines and should be treated as indicative. EBITDA is not a measure Sunrun discloses on an annual basis; S&P Global calculates TTM EBITDA to June 2026 of $840.61 million, which is not comparable to the annual series.
Margins
TTM to June 2026: gross margin 35.29%, operating margin +2.66%, pre-tax margin −26.39%, FCF margin −63.62%. The TTM operating margin turning positive is the first such crossing in the company's public history.
Balance sheet
The most important line on this table is "Net property, plant & equipment," which rose from $9.5 billion to $16.9 billion over five years. This is not factories. It is the installed fleet of customer-sited solar and storage systems — "energy systems, net" — the contracted asset base against which all the debt is raised. At 31 March 2026 energy systems, net stood at approximately $17.0 billion against total assets of $22.8 billion, i.e. roughly three-quarters of the balance sheet.
Cash flow
FY2025 marked the seventh consecutive quarter of positive Cash Generation and the fourth consecutive quarter of positive net change in cash and restricted cash. Management states $428 million of Cash Generation has been produced over the trailing two years. Note also that the Q2 2026 GAAP figure — net cash used in operating activities of −$186 million — sits alongside +$23 million of Cash Generation in the same quarter. The gap between the two is the entire non-GAAP debate around this issuer.
Ratios
Current-period ratios (TTM / as at 12 August 2026): current ratio 1.42; quick ratio 0.63; debt/equity 2.93; debt/EBITDA 18.12x; interest coverage 0.09x; ROE −19.86%; ROA +0.26%; ROIC +0.30%; ROCE +0.42%; WACC (S&P estimate) 6.88%; asset turnover 0.16x; revenue per employee $383,664. Altman Z-Score 0.1; Piotroski F-Score 5.
Cash conversion cycle: not meaningfully computable and not disclosed. Sunrun's receivables are 20-year contracted subscription streams, not trade receivables, and a conventional CCC is not an informative metric for this business model. Multi-year ROE, ROA and ROIC series are not published on a consistent basis by the company and have not been reconstructed here; only the current-period S&P Global figures above are cited.
Commentary — trends, inflections and drivers
FY2021–FY2022: the growth-at-any-cost phase. Revenue nearly doubled off the Vivint Solar integration base. Gross margins were thin (15.2%, then 12.9%) because the reported cost line includes the depreciation of retained systems against a revenue line that only captures one year of a 25-year contract — an accounting mismatch inherent to the model. FY2022 showed positive net income to common of $173.4 million purely because HLBV allocated a large share of losses to noncontrolling interests, not because the business was profitable.
FY2023–FY2024: the rate shock and the write-off. The Federal Reserve tightening cycle attacked Sunrun on both sides. On the cost side, the discount rate applied to 25-year contracted cash flows rose, compressing Net Subscriber Value. On the demand side, monthly payments in loan and lease products rose relative to utility rates. Revenue fell in both years. Gross margin bottomed at 7.2% in FY2023. Goodwill — the entire $4.28 billion carried from the Vivint Solar transaction — was written down in FY2023 and eliminated in FY2024.
FY2025: the inflection. Gross margin nearly doubled to 30.3%. Operating loss narrowed from $3,695 million to $126 million (or, on the pre-impairment convention, to a far smaller number). Net income to common turned positive at $450 million. Cash Generation of $377 million exceeded the guidance midpoint. Recourse debt was cut $148 million and unrestricted cash rose $248 million. Upfront Net Subscriber Value margin reached 7%, a six-percentage-point improvement. Three drivers: (i) the storage-first mix shift, which raised unit values; (ii) disciplined margin management and pricing power in a consolidating market; (iii) the FY2025 energy systems revenue surge from third-party system sales and the pre-25D-deadline pull-forward.
H1 2026: the transition tax. Revenue continues to grow strongly (+53% in Q2 to $870.0 million) and unit economics continue to improve (Unit Contracted Subscriber Value ~$55,000, +10% YoY; record 74% storage attachment). But volume is falling hard: subscriber additions −25% in Q1 and −31% in Q2 to 19,793, with ASV −24% to $1.2 billion. The affiliate channel has effectively evaporated, down over 70% YoY in Q2, part deliberate and part the consequence of Freedom Forever's Chapter 11. The direct sales replacement — over 1,500 salespeople added year to date — is ramping more slowly than planned because, per management, new representatives take time to learn a sophisticated storage-first product. Meanwhile higher base interest rates have made all-in cost of capital modestly higher than budgeted, notwithstanding a $267 million August 2026 securitisation pricing at a 200 basis point spread, the tightest in roughly eighteen months. The guidance cut on 5 August 2026 is the arithmetic consequence of these three items.
The honest summary: margins are healing and volumes are breaking. Whether Sunrun ends 2026 as a smaller, more profitable company or a company that has lost the scale required to keep its financing machine cheap is the central unresolved question.
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View Subscription PlansFinancial Detail
Revenue by Segment
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Customer agreements revenue (USD Mn) | 725.22 | 872.30 | 1,077.00 | 1,388.00 | 1,708.00 |
Incentives revenue (USD Mn) | 101.34 | 110.75 | 109.61 | 116.82 | 110.52 |
Energy systems revenue (USD Mn) | 471.28 | 913.90 | 656.41 | 204.78 | 878.34 |
Products revenue (USD Mn) | 312.11 | 424.47 | 416.70 | 327.72 | 259.65 |
Total revenue (USD Mn) | 1,610.00 | 2,321.00 | 2,260.00 | 2,038.00 | 2,957.00 |
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View Subscription PlansRevenue by Segment (%)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Customer agreements (% of revenue) | 45.0 | 37.6 | 47.7 | 68.1 | 57.8 |
Incentives (% of revenue) | 6.3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.7 |
Energy systems (% of revenue) | 29.3 | 39.4 | 29.0 | 10.0 | 29.7 |
Products (% of revenue) | 19.4 | 18.3 | 18.4 | 16.1 | 8.8 |
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View Subscription PlansSegment Margins & Growth (%)
| Metric | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Customer agreements YoY (%) | 20.3 | 23.5 | 28.9 | 23.1 |
Incentives YoY (%) | 9.3 | -1.0 | 6.6 | -5.4 |
Energy systems YoY (%) | 93.9 | -28.2 | -68.8 | 328.9 |
Products YoY (%) | 36.0 | -1.8 | -21.4 | -20.8 |
Total revenue YoY (%) | 44.2 | -2.6 | -9.8 | 45.1 |
Income Statement and Margin Analysis (%)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (USD Mn) | 1,610 | 2,321 | 2,260 | 2,038 | 2,957 |
Revenue growth (%) | 74.6 | 44.2 | -2.7 | -9.8 | 45.1 |
Gross profit (USD Mn) | 244.48 | 298.71 | 163.06 | 328.55 | 897.3 |
Operating income (USD Mn) | -666.19 | -662.19 | -1,979 | -3,695 | -126.13 |
Pre-tax income (USD Mn) | -971.3 | -847.2 | -2,695.7 | -4,382.7 | -1,176.3 |
Consolidated net loss (USD Mn) | -980.5 | -849.5 | -2,683.1 | -4,355.8 | -1,009.2 |
Net income to common stockholders (USD Mn) | -79.42 | 173.38 | -1,604 | -2,846 | 449.95 |
EPS diluted (USD) | -0.39 | 0.80 | -7.41 | -12.81 | 1.71 |
Dividends per share (USD) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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View Subscription PlansMargin Analysis (%)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin (%) | 15.19 | 12.87 | 7.22 | 16.12 | 30.34 |
Operating margin (%) | -41.38 | -28.53 | -87.56 | -181.34 | -4.27 |
Pre-tax margin (%) | -60.33 | -36.50 | -119.28 | -215.05 | -39.78 |
Consolidated net margin (%) | -60.90 | -36.60 | -118.72 | -213.73 | -34.13 |
Free cash flow margin (%) | -155.49 | -123.19 | -151.73 | -170.15 | -98.81 |
Balance Sheet and Per-Share Data
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash & equivalents (USD Mn) | 850.28 | 952.88 | 987.69 | 947.27 | 1,237 |
Accounts receivable (USD Mn) | 146.04 | 214.26 | 172.00 | 170.71 | 262.63 |
Inventory (USD Mn) | 506.82 | 783.90 | 459.75 | 402.08 | 501.29 |
Total current assets (USD Mn) | 1,548 | 2,098 | 1,882 | 1,723 | 2,156 |
Net property, plant & equipment (USD Mn) | 9,517 | 11,056 | 13,178 | 15,153 | 16,894 |
Goodwill (USD Mn) | 4,280 | 4,280 | 3,122 | 0 | 0 |
Other intangible assets (USD Mn) | 12.89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets (USD Mn) | 16,483 | 19,269 | 20,450 | 19,898 | 22,611 |
Total current liabilities (USD Mn) | 1,012 | 1,155 | 1,488 | 1,334 | 1,303 |
Short-term debt (USD Mn) | 190.19 | 157.81 | 547.87 | 231.67 | 269.51 |
Long-term debt (USD Mn) | 6,313 | 8,241 | 10,124 | 12,670 | 14,421 |
Total debt (USD Mn) | 6,525 | 8,428 | 10,763 | 12,994 | 14,752 |
Net debt (USD Mn) | 5,675 | 7,475 | 9,775 | 12,046 | 13,515 |
Total liabilities (USD Mn) | 8,911 | 11,090 | 13,536 | 15,734 | 17,627 |
Common shareholders' equity (USD Mn) | 6,255 | 6,708 | 5,230 | 2,554 | 3,132 |
Noncontrolling interests (USD Mn) | 1,318 | 1,471 | 1,684 | 1,610 | 1,851 |
Total equity incl. NCI (USD Mn) | 7,573 | 8,179 | 6,914 | 4,164 | 4,984 |
Working capital (USD Mn) | 536 | 943 | 394 | 389 | 853 |
Book value per share (USD) | 30.49 | 30.61 | 24.14 | 11.49 | 11.84 |
Tangible book value per share (USD) | 9.56 | 11.08 | 9.73 | 11.49 | 11.84 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating cash flow (USD Mn) | -817.19 | -848.79 | -820.74 | -766.15 | -421.44 |
Capital expenditures (USD Mn) | -1,686 | -2,011 | -2,608 | -2,701 | -2,500 |
Free cash flow (USD Mn) | -2,503 | -2,860 | -3,429 | -3,467 | -2,922 |
Dividends paid (USD Mn) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Share buybacks (USD Mn) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cash Flow (FY2025–FY2026 guidance)
| Metric | FY2025 | Q2 2026 | FY2026 guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
Cash Generation (USD Mn) | 377 | 23 | 200 to 375 |
Cash Generation ex-safe harbor (USD Mn) | — | 45 | 250 to 475 |
Net change in cash and restricted cash (USD Mn) | 290 | — | not guided |
“—” = not publicly disclosed.
Financial Ratios (x)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current ratio (x) | 1.53 | 1.82 | 1.26 | 1.29 | 1.65 |
Debt/equity (total equity) (x) | 0.86 | 1.03 | 1.56 | 3.12 | 2.96 |
Net debt/common equity (x) | 0.91 | 1.11 | 1.87 | 4.72 | 4.32 |
Asset turnover (x) | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.13 |
Inventory turnover (x) | — | — | — | — | 3.94 |
“—” = not publicly disclosed.
Geographic Revenue
| Metric | Disclosure |
|---|---|
Countries of operation | 1 (United States, including Puerto Rico as a US territory) |
US states served | 22, plus the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico |
Customers served | Over 1.1 million (as at mid-2026); over 1,100,000 as at 31 December 2025 per the 2026 proxy |
Region Margins & Growth (%) and Operating Metrics (count)
| Metric | FY2025 | Q2 2026 | FY2026 guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
Affiliate channel volume YoY change (%) | — | -70 | worse than -60 |
Direct sales representatives added YTD (count) | — | 1,500 | — |
Storage attachment rate (%) | 71 | 74 | — |
“—” = not publicly disclosed.
Capital Markets Data (USD) and Capital Markets Data
| Metric | Value (as at 12 August 2026 unless stated) |
|---|---|
Share price (USD) | 9.82 |
Market capitalisation (USD Bn) | 2.37 |
Enterprise value (USD Bn) | 16.87 |
Shares outstanding (M) | 240.85 |
Float (M) | 231.44 |
52-week price change (%) | -15.69 |
50-day moving average (USD) | 12.03 |
200-day moving average (USD) | 15.38 |
Relative Strength Index | 40.10 |
Beta (5Y) | 2.39 |
Average volume, 20 days | 9,697,373 |
Short interest (M shares) | 65.92 |
Short % of shares outstanding | 27.37 |
Short % of float | 28.48 |
Short ratio (days to cover) | 5.37 |
Valuation Multiples (x)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P/E trailing (x) | not meaningful | 30.03 | not meaningful | not meaningful | 10.76 | 6.62 |
P/E forward (x) | 183.34 | 239.34 | 121.14 | 121.14 | 30.19 | 8.99 |
P/S (x) | 4.44 | 2.22 | 1.91 | 1.02 | 1.45 | 0.71 |
Valuation Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Consensus rating | Buy |
Analyst count | 22 |
Average price target (USD) | 16.66 |
Implied upside (%) | 69.65 |
Revenue growth forecast, 3Y (%) | 7.29 |
EPS growth forecast, 3Y (%) | -12.78 |
Total debt at 30 Jun 2026 (USD Mn) | 15,206 |
Current portion of long-term debt at 30 Jun 2026 (USD Mn) | 513.4 |
Long-term debt at 30 Jun 2026 (USD Mn) | 14,645 |
Recourse debt at 30 Jun 2026 (USD Mn) | 637 |
Unrestricted cash at 30 Jun 2026 (USD Mn) | 712 |
Recourse debt reduction, twelve months to Jun 2026 (USD Mn) | 188 |
Unused non-recourse warehouse commitments (USD Mn) |
|
Working capital facility maturity | March 2028 (extended December 2025) |
Analyst Conclusions
Management guidance summary
| Metric | FY2026 guidance (5 Aug 2026) | Prior guidance | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Generation (USD M) | 200 to 375 | 250 to 450 | Reduced |
| Equipment safe harbor investment (USD M) | 50 to 100 | not previously specified | New |
| Aggregate Subscriber Value (USD B) | 4.6 to 4.9 | 4.8 to 5.2 | Reduced |
| Distributed power plant GAAP gross revenue (USD M) | ~40 | not previously guided | New baseline |
| Distributed power plant operating margin (USD M) | >10 | not previously guided | New |
| Dispatchable capacity target (GWh, by end-2028) | >10 | not previously guided | New |
Consensus: revenue growth of 7.29% over three years; EPS growth of −12.78% over three years; average price target $16.66 from 22 analysts with a "Buy" consensus.
Bull case
1. The market is valuing the origination business and ignoring the asset base. Net Earning Assets reached $9.0 billion at 30 June 2026, up from $7.6 billion a year earlier, of which $3.7 billion is contracted. The equity market capitalisation is $2.37 billion. The shares trade at 0.69x book value. If one believes the contracted cash flows are collectible — and residential subscription payments have proven durable across two rate cycles — the equity is trading at a substantial discount to the runoff value of assets already in the ground, with the origination business, the 4.6 GWh fleet, and both new-business options thrown in free.
2. Policy has eliminated the competition, not the company. Section 25D's termination on 31 December 2025 destroyed the loan-and-cash customer-owned model and took Freedom Forever — 6.1% of the market — into Chapter 11. Section 48E survives for third-party ownership. Sunrun's model was already 100% aligned with the surviving structure; Powell's statement that "we are not seeing similar impacts from changes to the 25D tax credit" is corroborated by Wood Mackenzie's finding that Sunrun's Q4 2025 share compression reflected the pull-forward distortion rather than operational weakness. Into a market Wood Mackenzie projects falling 18% in 2026, the largest TPO platform should take share from a shrinking, consolidating field.
3. The unit economics and margin trajectory are unambiguously improving. Gross margin went 7.22% → 16.12% → 30.34% → 35.29% (TTM). Storage attachment went 60% → 74%. Unit Contracted Subscriber Value reached ~$55,000, up 10% year on year. Upfront Net Subscriber Value margin improved six percentage points to 7%. The TTM operating margin turned positive at +2.66% — the first positive reading in the company's public history. Recourse debt is now net-cash-covered. A company generating $377 million of Cash Generation, seven consecutive positive quarters, and $428 million cumulatively over two years is not the company implied by an Altman Z-Score of 0.1.
Bear case
1. Volume is collapsing faster than margin is expanding. Subscriber additions fell 25% in Q1 2026 and 31% in Q2 to 19,793. Aggregate Subscriber Value fell 24%; Net Subscriber Value fell 44%. The affiliate channel — over 70% down year on year — is gone and was not fully replaced by 1,500 new direct sales representatives who, on management's own account, are ramping slower than planned. Higher unit values on rapidly falling units is not a growth business; it is a harvest. And a business that stops originating is a runoff vehicle whose financing costs eventually rise as issuance scale falls.
2. The entire model rests on a federal tax credit that expires in 2027, under rules that are not yet written. Section 48E runs through 2027. Section 25D proved that Congress will terminate a credit outright with no phase-down. The Prohibited Foreign Entity regime remains half-defined: Notice 2026-15 provided only interim safe harbors, comprehensive regulations are pending, Sunrun's own filing states it cannot predict what they will provide, and management has already flagged ITC transfer pricing pressure if guidance is delayed. The company is spending $50–100 million on equipment safe harbor in 2026 precisely because it cannot rely on the rules. A single adverse regulation could compress Net Subscriber Value below the cost of origination.
3. The leverage leaves no room for error, and management just missed its own numbers within six months. Total debt of $15.23 billion; interest coverage of 0.09x; free cash flow of −$2.9 billion in FY2025; shares outstanding up 20.29% in a year. Guidance issued on 26 February 2026 was cut on 5 August 2026 — a 22% reduction at the midpoint of Cash Generation — with cost of capital cited as one of three causes. The market's reaction (−4.9% in session, −13.35% after hours) and the 27.37% short interest reflect a well-founded scepticism that a business whose margin is a rate spread can be forecast a year out. If base rates stay elevated, the spread compresses further; if origination keeps falling, the fixed-cost base and the financing machine both lose leverage.
Catalysts and monitorables — next 12 months
| Timing | Item | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | Closing of the ~$267M securitisation | Spread confirmation at 200bp; the release did not give a closing date |
| Q3 2026 (Nov) | Q3 2026 results | Whether subscriber additions inflect off the −31% trough; whether the direct sales cohort productivity ramps |
| Ongoing | Treasury/IRS comprehensive PFE regulations | The single largest binary regulatory event. Favourable guidance would improve ITC transfer pricing; unfavourable or delayed guidance pressures it |
| H2 2026 | Conversion of the Renew Home/Tesla non-binding LOI into a definitive agreement with disclosed commercial terms | The 16 GW figure is currently a press release, not a contract |
| H2 2026–2027 | Distributed AI compute pilot outcomes: named counterparties, contracted revenue, homeowner economics, unit scale | Would validate or kill a genuinely new business category |
| FY2026 close | Cash Generation delivery within the revised $200–375M range | Guidance credibility after one cut |
| Through 2027 | Progress toward >10 GWh dispatchable by end-2028 from 4.6 GWh | The grid-services thesis in physical terms |
| Ongoing | Storage attachment rate trajectory beyond 74% | Direct driver of unit value |
| Ongoing | Recourse debt and unrestricted cash balance | Solvency headroom at the parent |
| 2,027 | Section 48E expiry and any legislative extension | Existential for the model as currently constituted |
| Ongoing | Short interest at 27%+ of shares outstanding | Both a squeeze catalyst and a signal |
| Q1 2027 | Wood Mackenzie 2026 share data | Whether Sunrun gained share into a contracting market as the bull case requires |
Analyst verdict
Sunrun in August 2026 is two companies trading as one, and the market is pricing only the worse of them.
The first company is a subscription asset owner with $9.0 billion of Net Earning Assets, $3.7 billion of it contracted, a customer agreements revenue line that has compounded at 23.9% for five consecutive years without a down year, gross margins that have more than quadrupled since FY2023, seven straight quarters of positive Cash Generation totalling $428 million over two years, and $637 million of recourse debt fully covered by $712 million of unrestricted cash. At 0.69x book and 6.6x trailing earnings, that company is priced for impairment that its own financing markets — pricing paper at the tightest spread in eighteen months — do not appear to believe in.
The second company is an origination machine that has just lost 31% of its quarterly volume, watched its affiliate channel fall over 70%, missed its own six-month-old guidance by 22% at the midpoint, diluted shareholders 20% in a year, and depends on a tax credit that expires in 2027 under rules Treasury has not finished writing. That company deserves the 27% short interest it carries.
The reconciliation is that both are true, and the resolution is empirical rather than analytical. Everything turns on whether the direct sales channel replaces affiliate origination before the fixed-cost base and financing scale erode — a question Q3 and Q4 2026 will answer, not a spreadsheet.
Verdict: a high-variance asset-value situation, not a growth investment. The downside is real and the leverage is unforgiving, but the balance sheet discount is large enough, and the recourse position clean enough, that a return to origination growth plus any resolution of PFE guidance would likely re-rate the equity violently upward — which is precisely why 27% of the shares are borrowed. The grid services and distributed compute options are free; they should be valued at zero and treated as upside, not underwriting.
SOURCES
Primary — SEC filings and company disclosure: Sunrun Inc. Form 10-K FY2025 (filed 26 Feb 2026, Accession 0001628280-26-012289, period ended 31 Dec 2025); Form 10-K FY2024 (filed 27 Feb 2025); Form 10-K FY2022 (filed 22 Feb 2023); Form 10-K FY2015; Form 10-Q Q1 2026 (period ended 31 Mar 2026); Form 10-Q Q2 2026 (period ended 30 Jun 2026); DEF 14A filed 15 Apr 2026 (run-20260415); DEF 14A filed 29 Apr 2024 (run-20240429); Form 8-K, 2026 Annual Meeting results (29 May 2026); Forms ABS-15G (27 Jul 2026); Forms 144 (Jun–Jul 2026); Vivint Solar, Inc. Forms 425 and 8-K (Jul–Sep 2020).
Company press releases and investor materials: "Sunrun Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results" (5 Aug 2026); "Sunrun Launches Distributed AI Data Center Pilot Backed By Existing Home Energy Generation" (8 Jul 2026); "Sunrun, Renew Home, and Tesla Team Up to Deliver More Than 16 Gigawatts of Fast, Flexible Power for Data Centers and Large Loads" (24 Jun 2026); "Sunrun Named to the Fortune 1000 2026 List" (3 Jun 2026); "Sunrun Earns Four 2026 Buyer's Choice Awards from ConsumerAffairs" (19 May 2026); "Sunrun Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results" (26 Feb 2026); "Sunrun Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results" (6 Nov 2025); Sunrun investor relations site and Executive Management page.
Market and financial data: S&P Global Market Intelligence (company profile, statistics, ownership, employee count, as at Jul–Aug 2026); Fiscal.ai via StockAnalysis.com (income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, margins, valuation, last updated 5 Aug 2026); Yahoo Finance (income statement, holders).
Industry research: Wood Mackenzie, "US distributed solar installers, developers and equipment suppliers navigate unprecedented change in 2025" (Mar 2026) and US PV Leaderboard; Wood Mackenzie / SEIA, Q4 2025 Solar Market Insight; Market Data Forecast, US Residential Solar Market report (2026); Technavio, US Residential Solar Market 2026–2030.
Secondary press and transcripts: Utility Dive / Prometheus Institute, "Sunrun saw steep sales drop in Q1 with end of solar tax credit, tariffs" (8–9 May 2026); pv magazine USA, "Sunrun touts record storage attachment rate, positive cash flow in 2025 earnings report" (27 Feb 2026); Investing.com Q2 2026 earnings call transcript and slides commentary (5 Aug 2026); Yahoo Finance Q2 2026 earnings call highlights; StockTitan Q2 2026 and DEF 14A summaries; IndexBox (Aug 2026); AFL-CIO Executive Paywatch (FY2024 CEO compensation); Salary.com (FY2025 NEO compensation, sourced from DEF 14A); Simply Wall St (management changes).
Ownership sources (conflicting): TradingKey (Q1 2026); WallStreetZen (Jun 2026); Tickergate (Apr 2026); MatrixBCG (Mar 2025); StockAnalysis/S&P Global (Aug 2026).
ITEMS EXPLICITLY NOT PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
geographic revenue disaggregation; facility-level footprint including regional offices, warehouses and depots; R&D expense in absolute terms or as a percentage of revenue, for any year; patent portfolio size and recent grants; named research labs or centres; corporate credit ratings from Moody's, S&P or Fitch; the debt maturity ladder by tranche and year; MSCI, Sustainalytics and CDP ESG ratings; quantified emissions targets and progress; workforce and leadership diversity metrics; the three-year employee headcount trend on a consistent basis; ages, tenures and educational backgrounds for executive officers other than Powell, Abajian and Barak; compensation for named executive officers other than Powell and Abajian; the CEO pay ratio multiple; individual board committee memberships and the current board chair designation; material litigation and regulatory proceedings for 2023–2026; multi-year ROE, ROA and ROIC series; cash conversion cycle; distributed AI compute pilot counterparties, revenue model, contracted scale and homeowner economics; and definitive commercial terms of the Renew Home/Tesla arrangement, which remains a non-binding letter of intent.
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View Subscription PlansExecutive Leadership
Executive Leadership Team
| Name | Title | Since | Prior background |
|---|---|---|---|
Mary Powell | Chief Executive Officer & Director | CEO since August 2021; director since February 2018 | President & CEO, Green Mountain Power (2008–2019), the utility serving 75% of Vermont's residential and business customers; joined GMP 1998; earlier executive roles in banking and service in state government. Currently a director of CGI Inc. (TSX: GIB.A; NYSE: GIB) and a Trustee of EDF Action. Former director, Hawaiian Electric Industries (2019–2021) and Énergir (2019–2023). Named to the 2024 TIME100 Climate list and Forbes' 50 Sustainability Leaders 2024; Utility Dive 2019 Utility Executive of the Year; Rachel Carson Award recipient. |
Danny Abajian | Chief Financial Officer; Principal Financial Officer | CFO since May 2022 | Internal promotion. SVP Project Finance April 2020–June 2022; VP February 2016–April 2020; Senior Director August 2013–February 2016; Director July 2010–August 2013. Previously investment banker: associate at Barclays Capital, analyst/associate at BNP Paribas (2005–2010). B.S. finance and international business, NYU Stern. |
Paul S. Dickson | President & Chief Revenue Officer | — | — |
Patrick Kent | Chief Operating Officer | — | — |
Jeanna Steele | Chief Legal and People Officer | Chief Legal Officer since May 2018; expanded role December 2021 | Oversees legal, people strategy, organisational development, health and safety, responsible business practices and environmental sustainability. J.D. |
Maria Barak | Chief Accounting Officer; Principal Accounting Officer | 6 February 2025 | VP, Corporate Controller March 2023–February 2025; joined Sunrun August 2017 as Director of Accounting, Strategic Partnerships. Previously independent accounting professional; began career at Deloitte & Touche. CPA; M.B.A., UC Berkeley Haas; B.A. |
Rachit Srivastava | Chief Technology Officer | — | — |
Chance Allred | Chief Experience and Direct Sales Officer | — | — |
Patrick Jobin | SVP Finance & Investor Relations | Pre-2020 | Sunrun IR lead since at least the 2020 Vivint Solar transaction |
“—” = not publicly disclosed.
Directors' Remuneration
| Metric | Mary Powell (CEO) | Danny Abajian (CFO) |
|---|---|---|
Salary (USD) | 850,000 | 504,000 |
Bonus / non-equity incentive (USD) | 1,698,300 | 570,629 |
Stock awards (USD) | 5,767,490 | 3,932,382 |
Option awards (USD) | 0 | 0 |
All other compensation (USD) | 15,342 | 12,840 |
Total (USD) | 8,331,132 | 5,019,851 |
Major Shareholders
| Source | Institutional ownership | Insider ownership | Largest holder |
|---|---|---|---|
S&P Global via StockAnalysis (Aug 2026) | 106.48% | 2.25% | not stated |
WallStreetZen (Jun 2026) | 106.95% | 67.45% | Tiger Global Management, 52.88M shares, 22.17% |
TradingKey (2026 Q1) | 122.95%, 941 institutions, 293.30M shares | not stated | BlackRock Institutional Trust 13.73% |
MatrixBCG (as at 30 Mar 2025) | not stated | ~40.36% | BlackRock 18.00% (41,126,474 shares) |
Tickergate (Apr 2026) | 17.37% | 3.04% | BlackRock 18.83% |
Major Shareholders by Holder
| Holder | Reported stake | Source and date |
|---|---|---|
Tiger Global Management LLC | 52.88M shares, 22.17% | WallStreetZen, Jun 2026 |
BlackRock (aggregate entities) | 13.73%–18.83% | TradingKey Q1 2026 / Tickergate Apr 2026 |
Goldman Sachs & Company, Inc. | 7.03% | TradingKey Q1 2026 |
The Vanguard Group (aggregate entities) | 9.63%–10.50% | TradingKey Q1 2026 / Tickergate Apr 2026 |
Greenvale Capital LLP | 4.49%–6.63% | TradingKey Q1 2026 / MatrixBCG Mar 2025 |
Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. LLC | 5.05% | MatrixBCG, Mar 2025 |
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | 4.35% | MatrixBCG, Mar 2025 |
D. E. Shaw & Co., L.P. | disclosed as a top holder, stake not stated | TradingKey |
State Street Corporation | disclosed as a top holder, stake not stated | multiple |
Competitive Landscape
Key Competitors
| Competitor | Positioning | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Freedom Forever LLC | Formerly #2 US installer, 6.1% 2025 share | Filed Chapter 11 in 2026. Loan/customer-owned model destroyed by 25D termination. Was also a Sunrun affiliate counterparty |
Tesla (Tesla Energy) | Solar + Solar Roof + Powerwall | Increasingly a technology and hardware supplier rather than a full-service installer; simultaneously Sunrun's battery supplier and its capacity-aggregation partner. The most strategically ambiguous relationship in the sector |
Palmetto Clean Technology | LightReach TPO platform | Raised over $1.2bn in capital announced January 2025 to fund 2024–25 LightReach plans. A direct and well-capitalised TPO competitor |
Trinity Solar | Northeast regional, 30+ years, family-owned, New Jersey HQ | Deep regional utility interconnection and state incentive expertise |
Momentum Solar | Regional, high volume, all four financing options | Competitive pricing in core markets; mixed customer review profile |
Sunnova Energy International | TPO-focused dealer-network model | Structurally the closest public comparable to Sunrun's financing model |
Elevation / Elevation Capital | Home performance and solar | — |
Powur PBC | Virtual/distributed sales platform | Asset-light origination model |
SunPower Corp. | Legacy premium brand | Brand and asset position materially changed following its financial difficulties; residual competitive relevance |
Semper Solaris, Solar Optimum, Project Solar, others | Regional and price-transparent challengers | Fragmented long tail |
Peer Comparison FY2025
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Sunrun US residential solar share (%) | 13.6 | 12.7 | 15.3 | 10.8 |
Freedom Forever share (%) | — | 6.1 | — | 3.9 |
“—” = not publicly disclosed.
Competitor Detail
| Metric | Sunrun (RUN) |
|---|---|
Business model | Residential TPO asset owner + installer |
TTM revenue (USD Bn) | 3.48 |
FY2025 revenue growth (%) | 45.1 |
TTM gross margin (%) | 35.29 |
TTM operating margin (%) | 2.66 |
Price/sales (x) | 0.71 |
Total debt (USD Bn) | 15.23 |
Recent Developments
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