Syrah Resources Limited Overview
Syrah Resources is an ASX-listed industrial minerals and battery-materials company. It is the only Western-listed producer with an integrated natural-graphite supply chain running from mine to battery anode. Its flagship asset is the Balama Graphite Operation in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, one of the world's largest high-grade natural flake graphite deposits. Its downstream asset is the 11.25ktpa Vidalia Active Anode Material (AAM) facility in Louisiana, USA. Syrah's strategic value rests on Western governments' push to reduce dependence on Chinese graphite, which dominates mined supply and battery-grade processing. That value is reflected in loans from the US Department of Energy (DOE) and the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), a proposed DFC equity stake, and the backing of AustralianSuper. Commercially, however, the company remains pre-profit and capital-constrained. It has suffered repeated Balama shutdowns, a delayed Vidalia qualification, and a share price down roughly 80% in 2026.
Company's own description
Syrah describes itself in its ASX releases and annual reports as an Australian Securities Exchange-listed "industrial minerals and technology company" with its flagship Balama Graphite Operation in Mozambique and a downstream Active Anode Material Facility in the United States. Its stated vision is to be the world's leading supplier of superior-quality graphite and anode material products, working closely with customers and the supply chain to add value in battery and industrial markets (Syrah boilerplate, ASX announcements 2025–2026; Listcorp company profile).
The principal activities, as described in the company profile carried on market data services, are:
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sales of natural graphite;
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ongoing development of logistics, sales and marketing arrangements with targeted customers;
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the operation and expansion of the Vidalia AAM facility, including evaluation of further expansion.
The reporting segments are Balama and Vidalia (HotCopper/CNBC company profile, 2026).
Independent characterisation
In practice, Syrah is two businesses at very different stages, linked by a shared balance sheet.
Balama (upstream mining). Balama is an open-pit natural flake graphite mine and concentrator in northern Mozambique. Since 2019 it has operated mostly in "campaign mode": it runs at high utilisation for a period, then idles to match sales orders and manage inventory. It sells two broad product classes:
Fines (small flake): the principal battery-anode feedstock. Fines are spheronised and purified into spherical graphite, then coated to make AAM.
Coarse flake: sold to industrial markets such as refractories, expandable graphite and foils, typically at higher prices.
Historically, most fines went to Chinese anode makers. Syrah's strategy has been to shift sales towards ex-China anode customers, notably BTR's Indonesian plant and Posco Future M in South Korea. Recent quarters showed volatile output: 34kt in Q4 2025, then 2kt in Q2 2026. Revenue depends heavily on production campaigns and Chinese graphite pricing.
Vidalia (downstream processing). Vidalia is a US battery-materials plant that converts Balama natural graphite into coated, purified spherical graphite AAM for lithium-ion battery anodes. Its nameplate capacity is 11.25ktpa. Syrah has a US$165 million Section 48C tax credit allocated towards a proposed expansion to 45ktpa (TipRanks Q4 2024 call summary). Vidalia has produced material mainly for customer qualification. Commercial sales are guided for 2H 2026 and positive operating cash flow from mid-2027, assisted by Section 45X production credits (Quartr Q2 2026 summary).
Business and revenue model
| Dimension | Characterisation |
|---|---|
| Revenue model | 100% product sales (commodity concentrate plus processed battery material). No service, subscription or licensing revenue disclosed. |
| Product mix (current) | Effectively all reported revenue comes from Balama natural graphite. Vidalia revenue to date is limited to qualification-volume sales. |
| Pricing | Balama: negotiated per shipment or quarter against market references, CIF or FOB basis. The Posco offtake is priced quarterly by mutual negotiation (Reuters/Mining.com, Mar 2024). Vidalia: Tesla offtake at a fixed, undisclosed price (2021); Lucid offtake at a floating-price mechanism (Debtwire, citing 24 Feb 2025 release). |
| Value chain position | Mining and concentration (Balama), then spheronisation, purification and coating into AAM (Vidalia), then sale to cell makers and OEMs. Syrah does not make cells. |
| Customer types | Anode material producers (Chinese, Indonesian and Korean); battery cell makers and EV OEMs (Tesla, Lucid); industrial graphite users. |
| End-markets | EV lithium-ion batteries; energy storage systems; industrial (refractories, foundry, expandable graphite, lubricants). |
| Policy linkage | Material dependence on US policy: IRA Section 30D foreign-entity-of-concern rules, Section 45X and 48C credits, AD/CVD trade cases, Section 232. |
Strategy
Stated strategy (themes paraphrased from company disclosures)
Vision: be the world's leading supplier of superior-quality graphite and anode material products for battery and industrial markets.
Integrated ex-China supply chain: management describes Syrah as the only Western producer with an integrated mine-to-anode chain. It also cites an independent Minviro life cycle assessment as evidence that Syrah is the most sustainable source of integrated natural graphite and AAM available at scale (Q2 2026 call; Q2 2026 Sustainability Update).
Balama sales diversification: balance internal consumption through Vidalia with a rising share of ex-China sales, leaving residual sales to China.
Policy advocacy: management says it is very active in highlighting supply concentration and advocating for policy development (Q2 2026 call).
2026 Board priorities (AGM Chair's address): - position Syrah to operate through continuing market and policy uncertainty;
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prudent cost management;
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capital discipline and balance-sheet strength and flexibility;
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governance, leadership and succession.
Strategic initiatives (last 24 months)
| Initiative | Date | Description | Status (Oct 2026) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic Funding Proposals (DFC, DOE, AustralianSuper) | Announced 26 Mar 2026 | Two streams: (1) balance-sheet reset, converting US$31M of DFC debt to equity (~20%), the remaining DFC debt and part of the DOE debt to CLNs, and restructuring AustralianSuper notes; (2) additional liquidity: further US$15M DFC drawdown plus US$68M secondary CLNs (DFC US$30M, AustralianSuper US$38M). No cash interest or principal for three years. | Non-binding. Close slipped from 2H 2026 to H1 2027 (ASX 9 Sep 2026). US$15M DFC disbursement targeted for Oct 2026. |
| A$104M (US$72M) equity raising | Mar–Apr 2026 | Fully underwritten pro-rata accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer at A$0.105. ~417M shares in the institutional tranche; retail ~A$61M | Completed 24 Apr 2026 |
| A$70M equity raising | Aug–Sep 2025 | Institutional placement and entitlement offer to fund restart and liquidity | Completed |
| Vidalia commercialisation | Ongoing | Final customer qualification; commercial sales in 2H 2026; ramp to 80% capacity over ~6 months; positive operating cash flow from mid-2027 | Delayed repeatedly; H1 2026 impairment US$35.2M |
| Vidalia expansion to 45ktpa | 48C credit 2024/25 | US$165M Section 48C tax credit retained | Unfunded; contingent |
| Balama campaign operations and ramp | Ongoing | 2026 guidance 60–80kt; medium-term 200–240ktpa | Curtailed in Q2 2026; next campaign in Q3 2026 |
| Trade-policy action | Dec 2024–Mar 2026 | AD/CVD petition via Syrah Technologies LLC | Commerce affirmative (Feb 2026); ITC negative (Mar 2026). Section 232 process under way; updates expected Q3 2026 |
| Cost programme | 2024–2026 | Campaign-mode operations; Balama fixed costs held at ~US$4M/month when idle; Vidalia run only as needed | Ongoing; no quantified savings target found |
| ESG programmes | Ongoing | IRMA 50 at Balama; Minviro LCA; community development; malaria control (residual spraying) | Ongoing |
Medium-term targets and guidance
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Balama 2026 production: 60–80kt (cut from a higher earlier guidance; Jul 2026).
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Balama medium-term ramp: 200–240ktpa.
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Vidalia: first commercial AAM sales in 2H 2026; ramp to 80% within ~6 months; positive operating cash flow from mid-2027.
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Group target: positive operating cash flow at Balama and corporate level in the medium term (Q2 2026 slides).
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No revenue or EBITDA targets published.
Products & Services
Balama segment
| Product | Description | Key specifications | Target customer | Launch | Pricing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural graphite fines (−100 mesh / small flake) | Flotation concentrate; the main battery-anode feedstock for spheronisation | Q2 2026 campaign: 96% grade (TGC), 95% recovery (Kalkine, Q2 2026) | Ex-China anode makers (BTR Indonesia, Posco Future M); Chinese anode producers; Vidalia (internal) | Commercial since 2018 † | Market-referenced; Posco priced quarterly by negotiation. Q1 2026 weighted average US$630/t; Q2 2026 US$736/t |
| Coarse flake (+100 mesh and larger) | Larger flake fractions | High purity, large flake | Industrial users: refractories, expandable graphite, foils | Commercial since 2018 † | Premium to fines; not separately disclosed |
| Balama vanadium (resource) | Vanadium mineralisation within the Balama deposit | Not in production | — | Development option | — |
| Parameter | Value | Source / date |
|---|---|---|
| Ore Reserves | 108Mt at 16% TGC | Creamer Media project profile |
| Mineral Resources | 1.42bn t at 10% TGC | Creamer Media project profile |
| Earlier JORC reserve (historical) | 81.4Mt at 16.2% TGC | ABN Newswire archive (pre-production) |
| Medium-term ramp target | 200–240ktpa, contingent on policy and markets | Quartr Q2 2026 summary |
| 2026 production guidance | 60–80kt (revised down, Jul 2026) | Quartr Q2 2026 summary |
| Medium-term C1 cost guidance | US$430–480/t FOB Nacala/Pemba at 20kt/month (historic guidance, Oct 2024) | Q3 2024 Quarterly Report |
| Logistics | Road to Nacala/Pemba ports; breakbulk shipments to ex-China customers | Quarterly reports |
Balama asset parameters.
Vidalia segment
| Product | Description | Key specifications | Target customer | Launch | Pricing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural graphite AAM | Coated, purified spherical graphite made from Balama feedstock in Louisiana; fully integrated ex-China supply chain | Capacity 11.25ktpa; product reported to meet or exceed customer specifications (Q2 2026); ~150t produced in Q2 2026 for qualification | EV OEMs and cell makers in North America (Tesla, Lucid); other qualifying customers | Facility commissioned c.2024 †; commercial sales guided 2H 2026 | Tesla: fixed, undisclosed (2021 contract). Lucid: floating price |
| Vidalia Initial/Further Expansion | Proposed capacity growth to 45ktpa total | US$165M Section 48C credit retained | Same | Final investment decision contingent on commercial ramp | — |
Vidalia economics (company-disclosed inputs).
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Syrah's cost estimate assumes Balama feedstock at US$425/t FOB Nacala, plus shipping to Vidalia and maintenance capex (Kalkine, Q2 2026).
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The plant is being run only as far as needed for qualification, development work and preparation for commercial sales.
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A US$8M Section 45X refund was received after Q2 2026.
Competitive comparison (third-party view). Debtwire's analysis cites BTR's Indonesian AAM plant, with construction cost per tonne of capacity at ~30% of Vidalia's. It also notes that AAM prices fell by about one-third, from ~US$6.9/kg (Dec 2021) to ~US$4.6/kg FOB China (Sep 2025). This weighs on the economics of Tesla's fixed-price contract.
Services
None disclosed. Syrah provides customer qualification support and product development work for prospective AAM customers. This is not monetised separately.
Financial Narrative
Basis: USD millions unless stated; fiscal years ending 31 December. Primary aggregator: StockAnalysis (S&P-sourced standardised statements). EBITDA and D&A come from TipRanks. TipRanks labels its figures "AUD", but its 2024 net income (−125.29) matches the USD figures from other sources exactly, so the labels appear to be USD. Treat that table with caution.
Margins and growth (%)
Revenue CAGR (FY2021–FY2025): about +3.6% per year, from US$29.0M to US$33.4M. This masks extreme volatility: a +266% rise in FY2022, then a 69% fall over FY2023–FY2024.
Balance sheet
Additional balance sheet data points.
Debt facilities (principal amounts as disclosed).
Aggregator debt data (AUD basis, InvestSMART): long-term debt A$198.7M (FY2025), A$194.9M (FY2024), A$20.1M (FY2023); net gearing 66.4% (FY2025). The step-up in FY2024 reflects the DOE drawdown being reclassified and the DFC draws.
Working capital: not publicly disclosed in retrieved sources. Restricted cash and lender approvals constrain working capital materially.
Cash flow
InvestSMART data is in AUD and based on fiscal years ending December, though the site labels them "Year to Jun".
Quarterly operating cash flow (USD): −US$27M in Q1 2026; −US$19M in Q2 2026 (Investing.com Q2 2026 transcript).
Capex trend. Investing outflows fell from ~A$203M in FY2023, the peak of the Vidalia build, to ~A$9M in FY2025. Syrah is now in sustaining-capex-only mode.
Commentary on trends, inflections and drivers
FY2021–FY2022: recovery and peak. Balama restarted in 2021 after the COVID suspension. Revenue rose from US$29.0M (FY2021) to a record US$106.2M (FY2022) as Chinese anode demand surged and prices strengthened. FY2022 was the only year in the period with positive gross profit (US$7.2M). In the same year Syrah raised A$250M and closed the US$102M DOE loan to build Vidalia (2022 FY Results release).
FY2023–FY2024: double shock. Revenue fell 55% in FY2023 and a further 34% in FY2024. Three drivers explain the fall:
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China's anode sector moved to overcapacity and destocked, and Chinese spherical graphite production was suspended for periods. This depressed demand for Balama fines (Q3 2024 Quarterly Report).
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Low-cost synthetic graphite from China displaced natural graphite.
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Balama was idle for long stretches, including the whole Sep 2024 quarter, and then disrupted by post-election protests from late 2024.
Fixed costs continued during idle periods, so gross losses widened to US$74.5M in FY2024. The net loss reached a period high of US$125.3M.
FY2025: restart year. Balama was effectively closed until June 2025 (H1 2025 revenue only US$2.0M). It then ramped through 2H 2025, reaching 34kt in Q4 2025, in line with its best prior performance (Q4 2025 call). Full-year revenue recovered slightly to US$33.4M, and the net loss narrowed to US$100.7M.
2026 YTD: renewed deterioration. H1 2026 revenue was US$18.1M, mostly from Q1 production of ~24kt. The H1 net loss nearly doubled to US$107.9M, driven by a US$35.2M Vidalia impairment triggered by the negative ITC ruling (H1 2026 Interim summary). Q2 output collapsed to 2kt because ex-China fines demand was weak and Chinese-linked supply from East Africa competed for Indonesian demand. The structural point is unchanged: Balama needs sustained high utilisation (management cites >50% of capacity) to generate positive margins (Q4 2025 call). Since 2019 it has rarely achieved that for more than a few quarters.
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Segment Overview
| Segment | Contents | Products/services | Key legal entity |
|---|---|---|---|
Balama | Mining, processing, distribution and sale of natural flake graphite from the Balama Graphite Operation, Cabo Delgado, Mozambique; also the Balama vanadium resource | Natural graphite fines (battery feedstock); coarse flake (industrial) | Twigg Exploration and Mining Limitada (borrower under the DFC loan; recipient of the US$15M DFC disbursement) |
Vidalia | Operation of the 11.25ktpa Vidalia AAM facility; evaluation of the Vidalia expansion projects (to 45ktpa) | Natural graphite active anode material (coated, purified spherical graphite) | Syrah Technologies LLC (DOE loan borrower; AD/CVD co-petitioner) |
Corporate / unallocated | Group administration, treasury, Melbourne HQ, Dubai sales hub, Shanghai liaison | — | Syrah Resources Limited |
Revenue by Segment and Segment Margins & Growth (%)
| Segment | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
Group revenue (USD Mn) | 47.71 | 31.52 | 33.38 |
Group revenue YoY growth (%) | -55.1 | -33.9 | 5.9 |
Results by Segment
| Metric | H1 2024 | H1 2025 | H1 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (USD Mn) | 19.04 | 2.01 | 18.06 |
Gross loss (USD Mn) | -24.99 | -33.41 | -32.3 |
Net loss after tax (USD Mn) | -67.11 | -59.79 | -107.89 |
Income Statement and Share Count (M)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (USD Mn) | 29.04 | 106.18 | 47.71 | 31.52 | 33.38 |
Cost of revenue (USD Mn) | 62.96 | 98.95 | 85.72 | 105.98 | 98.91 |
Gross profit (USD Mn) | -33.92 | 7.23 | -38.01 | -74.47 | -65.53 |
SG&A / operating expenses (USD Mn) | 16.70 | 45.48 | 31.06 | 20.83 | 20.93 |
Operating income (USD Mn) | -50.62 | -38.26 | -69.06 | -95.30 | -86.45 |
D&A (USD Mn, TipRanks) | 14.16 | 15.61 | 18.08 | 28.52 | — |
EBITDA (USD Mn, TipRanks) | -49.55 | -19.43 | -84.83 | -123.72 | — |
Pre-tax income (USD Mn) | -54.16 | -29.41 | -82.11 | -124.21 | -99.69 |
Income tax expense (USD Mn) | 2.71 | -2.57 | 3.17 | 1.08 | 0.97 |
Net income (USD Mn) | -56.87 | -26.85 | -85.28 | -125.29 | -100.66 |
Diluted weighted shares (M) | 497 | 646 | 674 | 920 | 1,144 |
EPS basic/diluted, derived (USD) | -0.114 | -0.042 | -0.127 | -0.136 | -0.088 |
Dividends per share (USD) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Margin Analysis (%)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin (%) | -116.8 | 6.8 | -79.7 | -236.3 | -196.3 |
Operating margin (%) | -174.3 | -36.0 | -144.7 | -302.4 | -259.0 |
EBITDA margin (%) | -170.6 | -18.3 | -177.8 | -392.5 | — |
Net margin (%) | -195.8 | -25.3 | -178.7 | -397.5 | -301.6 |
Revenue growth YoY (%) | 169.2 | 265.6 | -55.1 | -33.9 | 5.9 |
Balance Sheet
| Metric | FY2024 |
|---|---|
Total assets (USD Mn) | 692.1 |
Cash and equivalents incl. restricted (USD Mn) | 87.5 |
Issued capital (USD Mn) | 940.1 |
Item by Date
| Date | Item | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
30 Jun 2025 | Total assets | US$671.5M | H1 2025 Interim (FilingReader) |
30 Jun 2025 | Cash | US$42.8M (US$12.2M unrestricted) | H1 2025 Interim |
30 Jun 2025 | Issued capital | US$942.0M | H1 2025 Interim |
31 Dec 2025 | Cash (unrestricted, per Craft) | US$17.6M (definition unclear) | Craft.co (aggregator) |
31 Mar 2026 | Cash | US$52M (US$9M unrestricted); pro forma US$122M incl. raise; pro forma liquidity up to US$178M | Q1 2026 transcript (Investing.com) |
30 Jun 2026 | Cash | US$98.3M, of which US$67.3M restricted | H1 2026 Interim summary (Quartr) |
30 Jun 2026 | Restricted cash breakdown | DOE/DFC loan reserves US$27M; Balama US$23M (subject to DFC approval); Vidalia US$18M (subject to DOE approval); unrestricted US$31M | Q2 2026 slides (Investing.com) |
Goodwill and intangibles | Not material / not disclosed | — | — |
Debt Facilities
| Facility | Lender | Amount | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
DOE loan (Vidalia) | US Department of Energy (ATVM programme) | US$102M closed 2022; ~US$98M outstanding per Debtwire (2025) | In default in 2025 (Balama protest-related cross-default); under forbearance; a portion proposed for conversion to CLNs |
DFC loan (Balama) | US International Development Finance Corporation | US$150M agreement (Q3/Q4 2024); further US$15M disbursement to Twigg targeted for Oct 2026 | In default 2025, forbearance granted; US$31M proposed to convert to equity (~20% stake); remainder to CLNs |
Convertible notes Series 4, 5, 6 | AustralianSuper | — | Conversion price adjusted from A$1.3686 to A$1.1312 after the 2026 raise |
Proposed secondary CLNs | DFC (US$30M) + AustralianSuper (US$38M) | US$68M | Non-binding; financial close H1 2027 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
Operating cash flow (AUD Mn) | -87.5 | -126.5 | -84.2 |
Investing cash flow (AUD Mn) | -203 | -39 | -9 |
Financing cash flow (AUD Mn) | 282 | 170 | 76 |
Free cash flow, OCF + investing proxy (AUD Mn) | -290.5 | -165.5 | -93.2 |
Dividends paid (AUD Mn) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Buybacks (AUD Mn) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Returns & Leverage Ratios (%) and Financial Ratios (x)
| Ratio | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
ROE | Negative | Negative | Negative | Persistent losses; equity eroded by losses and offset by raises |
ROA | ~ -12% | ~ -18% | ~ -15% | Derived from net loss / total assets (~US$670–700M); indicative only |
ROIC | Negative | Negative | Negative | Operating losses on a ~US$600M+ invested base |
Net gearing (InvestSMART) | 59.7% | 47.7% | 66.4% | AUD basis |
Net debt / EBITDA | n/m | n/m | n/m | EBITDA negative |
Interest coverage (InvestSMART, x) | -5.81 | -4.97 | -1.82 | Negative; no operating earnings to cover interest |
Asset turnover | ~0.07x | ~0.05x | ~0.05x | Revenue / total assets; very low, reflecting under-utilised assets |
Markets
| Market | Customers / channel | Trend | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
China | Chinese anode makers (fines); historically the dominant destination | Declining as a share. Syrah's strategy is to make Chinese sales residual. | Posco offtake release (Mar 2024) describes the sales strategy: integrated consumption through Vidalia, a rising ex-China share, and residual sales to China |
Indonesia | BTR Indonesia, a Chinese-owned anode plant serving US-compliant supply chains | Grew in 2025. Now contested by Chinese-linked supply from a Mozambique operation that began fines exports in Q2 2026. | FY2024 results; Q2 2026 CEO commentary (StockAlarm transcript) |
South Korea | Posco Future M: up to 2kt/month in year 1, 2–5kt/month thereafter, over a six-year term | Started early 2025 | Posco offtake (Mar 2024); FY2024 results |
United States | Vidalia AAM: Tesla (8ktpa), Lucid (7ktpa); earlier Balama offtakes with Graphex and Westwater | Pre-commercial; first commercial sales guided 2H 2026 | ASX releases |
Global industrial | Coarse flake buyers | Solid demand in Q4 2025 | Q4 2025 call |
Share Price & Returns
| Reference point | Price (AUD) | Source |
|---|---|---|
16 Oct 2025 (52-week high date) | ~0.41–0.465 (sources differ) | CNBC; StockLight |
2 Jan 2026 (start of year) | 0.34 | Simply Wall St |
19 Jan 2026 | 0.292 | Kalkine |
16 Mar 2026 | 0.175 | Reuters/Mining Weekly |
26 Mar 2026 (pre-raise) | 0.145 | InvestSMART |
Raise price, Mar 2026 | 0.105 | ASX |
1 Jun 2026 (Tesla resolution) | ~0.12 intraday | Capital Brief |
23 Jul 2026 | ~0.11–0.12 | Kalkine; StockLight |
5 Oct 2026 (52-week low date) | ~0.065–0.07 | CNBC; StockLight |
14 Oct 2026 | 0.068 | CNBC |
Return metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
Annual shareholder return, InvestSMART (%) | -68.7 | -67.6 |
Capital Markets
| Metric | Syrah | Comment |
|---|---|---|
Market cap | ~A$155–163M (~US$100–105M) | ~2.3bn shares at A$0.068–0.070 |
P/E | n/m | Loss-making |
EV/EBITDA | n/m | Negative EBITDA |
EV/Sales | n/v | EV depends on restricted cash and debt treatment. Gross debt (DOE ~US$98M, DFC drawn, AustralianSuper notes) plausibly exceeds US$250M, implying EV/Sales well above 5x on FY2025 revenue (estimate). |
P/B | Well below 1x | Book value per share was A$0.33 at FY2025 (InvestSMART) against a price of A$0.068 (~0.2x), before the 2026 raise and H1 impairment |
Peer multiples | n/v | Not compiled in this cycle |
Capital Markets — Number of analysts
| Item | Detail | Source |
|---|---|---|
Number of analysts | ~3–4 | Simply Wall St (Apr 2026); iTiger |
Consensus price target | A$0.19 (after a 36% cut, 22 Apr 2026) | Simply Wall St |
Consensus 2026 revenue | US$106M (Apr 2026, down from US$139M) | Simply Wall St |
Consensus 2026 EPS | −US$0.026 (Apr 2026). Investing.com cites company/consensus EPS of −0.08 (FY2026) and −0.04 (FY2027); sources conflict. | Simply Wall St; Investing.com |
Latest named rating | Jarden: Sell (13 Sep 2026) | TipRanks via CNBC |
Covering brokers (identified) | Jarden, Petra Capital (Andrew Harrington) | Transcripts |
Analyst Conclusions
Management guidance (latest, Jul 2026)
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Balama production in 2026: 60–80kt (H1 actual 25.8kt).
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Balama campaigns timed to contracted sales and inventory buffers; next campaign in Q3 2026.
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Vidalia: first commercial AAM sales in 2H 2026; ~6 months to reach 80% capacity; positive operating cash flow from mid-2027.
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Strategic Funding Proposals: financial close H1 2027; US$15M DFC disbursement targeted for October 2026.
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Medium term: Balama at 200–240ktpa and positive operating cash flow at Balama and corporate level, contingent on market and policy developments.
Consensus expectations
April 2026 consensus implied revenue of ~US$106M for 2026, a 218% increase. This now looks unattainable. H1 revenue was US$18.1M and output guidance fell to 60–80kt; at ~US$600–700/t, that implies Balama revenue of roughly US$40–55M for the year before any Vidalia contribution (analyst estimate). Simply Wall St reports analysts' longer-term revenue growth forecasts of ~60% per year. Those figures rest on a Vidalia ramp that has repeatedly slipped.
Bull case
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US government ownership de-risks survival. A ~20% DFC stake, alongside AustralianSuper's ~49.6%, would make Syrah a de facto strategic asset of US and Australian institutional capital. The funding package's three-year holiday on cash interest and principal would remove near-term refinancing risk.
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Vidalia converts in 2H 2026. Tesla has accepted that Syrah's samples conform (1 Jun 2026), and management says it is at the final stage of qualification. Contracted demand from Tesla (8ktpa) and Lucid (7ktpa) exceeds Vidalia's 11.25ktpa nameplate. With 45X credits (US$8M already refunded), Vidalia could reach positive operating cash flow by mid-2027.
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Asset value far above market value. At ~A$160M market cap, the market values Balama, a resource of more than a billion tonnes, and a newly built US AAM plant at a fraction of sunk capital (issued capital ~US$942M). Any trade-policy or Section 232 action restoring a price premium for ex-China supply would re-rate the equity sharply.
Bear case
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Structural margin deficit. Even at its best recent quarter (Q4 2025), Balama's C1 cost plus freight (US$609/t) exceeded its realised price (US$577/t). Chinese synthetic oversupply and a Chinese-linked African competitor cap pricing.
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Policy has failed when it mattered. The ITC rejected duties, triggering a US$35.2M Vidalia impairment. Demand-side US EV policy has weakened, and the Section 232 outcome is uncertain. Vidalia's capital cost is roughly 3x BTR's Indonesian plant per tonne.
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Dilution and control. The share count more than quadrupled in five years, and the 2026 raise was priced at A$0.105, against a current price of A$0.068. Funding close has slipped to H1 2027, unrestricted cash was only US$31M at mid-2026, and quarterly operating burn is US$19–27M. Further dilutive capital, possibly on lender or major-holder terms, looks likely.
Catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)
| Timing | Catalyst |
|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026 | September 2026 Quarterly: Q3 Balama campaign volumes, cash, Vidalia qualification status |
| Oct 2026 | US$15M DFC disbursement to Twigg |
| 2H 2026 | First commercial Vidalia AAM sale and final Tesla qualification (removing the termination right) |
| Q3 2026 onward | Section 232 updates; any new US trade or tariff action on Chinese graphite |
| Q1 2027 | FY2026 results (Mar 2027) and going-concern assessment; possible further impairment |
| H1 2027 | Binding documents and financial close for the DFC/DOE/AustralianSuper package; shareholder vote; DFC becomes a ~20% holder |
| Ongoing | Balama campaign cadence against 60–80kt guidance; ex-China fines pricing; Mozambique security |
Analyst verdict
Syrah Resources holds strategically important assets inside a commercially fragile company. Balama is a world-scale, high-grade natural graphite deposit. Vidalia is the only operating integrated natural-graphite anode plant in the United States. Together they are exactly the ex-China supply chain that Western governments say they want. That is why the US DFC is prepared to move from lender to roughly 20% shareholder, and why AustralianSuper has kept funding the company until it holds about half the shares.
The financial record, however, is clear and poor. Syrah lost money in each of the last five years: US$100.7M in FY2025 and US$107.9M in H1 2026. Gross margins have been negative in four of five years. Balama has spent more time idle than running since 2019. Even its strong Q4 2025 did not deliver positive cash margins after freight. Vidalia's commercial launch has slipped by about two years, and the ITC's March 2026 decision removed the tariff protection that was meant to make Vidalia competitive against Chinese and Indonesian plants built at a fraction of its cost.
The equity has priced in much of this. At about A$0.07, the shares trade at roughly 0.2x last reported book value and far below replacement cost. For the equity to work, three things must happen in sequence: Vidalia qualifies and sells commercially in 2H 2026, the funding package closes in H1 2027 without further dilution, and ex-China feedstock demand recovers enough for Balama to run continuously. Each has slipped before.
Our assessment is that Syrah is a policy-dependent special situation, not an investable industrial on fundamentals. The most likely path is survival through support from its controlling shareholders, with continued dilution for minorities. Upside depends on US trade policy and Tesla qualification rather than on operating performance. Recommended stance: speculative / high risk. Monitor the 29 Oct 2026 quarterly, Vidalia's first commercial invoice, and the binding documentation for the funding package.
Sources referenced: Syrah Resources ASX announcements (Mar 2024 Equity Raising; Posco Future M offtake, 1 Mar 2024; Q3 2024 Quarterly, 30 Oct 2024; AD/CVD petition, 19 Dec 2024; FY2024 Results, 24 Mar 2025; H1 2025 Interim Report; Chair-Elect appointment, 5 Dec 2025; AD/CVD update, 12 Feb 2026; Equity Raising & Strategic Funding Proposals, 26 Mar 2026; Institutional Offer completion, 27 Mar 2026; Retail Offer results, 22 Apr 2026; AGM results and Chair's address, 22 May 2026; Tesla default resolved, 1 Jun 2026; Q2 2026 Quarterly and Sustainability Update, 23 Jul 2026; Strategic Funding Implementation Update and H1 2026 Interim, 9 Sep 2026; Sept 2026 Quarterly call notice, 5 Oct 2026); AustralianSuper Form 604 notices (Apr 2026); USITC Bulletin 26-021 (12 Mar 2026); Akin Gump AD/CVD alert (Dec 2024); earnings call transcripts (Q4 2025, Q1 2026, Q2 2026 via Investing.com, ROIC.ai, StockAlarm); Reuters/Mining Weekly/Engineering News; Mining.com; Miningmx; Electrive; Debtwire/ION Analytics; Kalkine; Quartr; Simply Wall St; StockAnalysis; TipRanks; InvestSMART; CNBC; StockLight; Listcorp; HotCopper; Revelio Labs; Craft.co; Creamer Media.
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View Subscription PlansExecutive Leadership
Executive Leadership Team
| Name | Title | Tenure | Background |
|---|---|---|---|
Shaun Verner | Managing Director & CEO | Since 3 Feb 2017 | — |
Steve Wells | Chief Financial Officer | — | Presents on quarterly calls (Q2 2026) |
Stefan Ross | Company Secretary | — | Signed AGM results, 22 May 2026 |
Viren Hira | Investor Relations | — | IR contact on ASX releases |
Board of Directors
| Director | Role | Appointed | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
Samantha Hogg | Independent Non-Executive Chair | 5 Dec 2025 (Chair from 1 Jan 2026) | Also NED of Cleanaway, GrainCorp and IGO. Former Deputy Chair of Adbri; past roles at De Grey Mining, ARENA, Hydro Tasmania, Infrastructure Australia, TasRail; chaired Marinus Link and Tasmanian Irrigation. Former CFO of Transurban; earlier at WMC Resources (Creamer Media; 360Mozambique). Elected at the 2026 AGM. |
Shaun Verner | Managing Director | 3 Feb 2017 | Executive director |
José Manuel Caldeira | Non-Executive Director | 22 Jul 2014 | Mozambique-based; longest-serving NED |
Lisa Bahash | Non-Executive Director | 16 Jul 2018 | Automotive/industrial background † |
Sara Watts | Non-Executive Director | 3 Jun 2019 | Re-elected at the 2026 AGM; finance background † |
John Beevers | Non-Executive Director | 22 May 2020 | Mining executive background † |
Robert Edel | Non-Executive Director | 17 Jul 2025 | Nominated by AustralianSuper; commercial lawyer and corporate adviser (AGM Chair's address 2026) |
Major Shareholders
| Holder | Shares | Stake | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
AustralianSuper Pty Ltd | 1,141,045,110 | ~49.6% | Form 604 (24 Apr 2026); ASX release 22 Apr 2026 |
US DFC (proposed) | Via US$31M debt-to-equity conversion | ~20% post-conversion (would become second-largest holder) | ASX 26 Mar 2026; Mining.com. Not yet completed; close H1 2027 |
Other top-10 holders | Not publicly disclosed in retrieved sources | — | Top-20 list in the 2025 Annual Report |
Directors / insiders | Small. For example, on 24 Apr 2026 Sara Watts took up ~157k shares and Robert Edel ~49k shares at A$0.105 in the retail offer | <1% combined (estimate) | InvestSMART director transactions |
Competitive Landscape
Key Competitors
| Competitor | Segment | HQ | Relative positioning vs Syrah |
|---|---|---|---|
BTR New Material Group | AAM (natural and synthetic); Indonesia plant | China | Global AAM leader; vastly larger scale. Its Indonesian AAM plant cost ~30% of Vidalia's per tonne (Debtwire). Also a Balama customer. |
Shanghai Putailai (Zichen) | Synthetic AAM | China | Major synthetic anode producer; drives price deflation |
Shanshan Co. | AAM | China | Major anode producer |
Shangtai Technology | Synthetic AAM | China | Low-cost synthetic capacity |
Chinese-controlled Mozambique graphite operation (privately held, linked to Chinese state entities; unnamed by Syrah) | Natural graphite fines | Mozambique | Direct Balama competitor for ex-China fines into Indonesia since Q2 2026 |
NOVONIX | Synthetic AAM (US) | Australia/US | Fellow AD/CVD petitioner; US synthetic anode developer |
Westwater Resources | Natural graphite AAM (Kellyton, Alabama) | US | Downstream peer; former Balama offtaker |
Nouveau Monde Graphite | Integrated natural graphite (Québec) | Canada | Western integrated mine-to-anode developer |
Talga Group | Integrated graphite anode (Sweden) | Australia/Sweden | European integrated developer |
Graphite One | Integrated (Alaska/Ohio) | US | US integrated developer |
NextSource Materials | Natural graphite (Madagascar) | Canada | African flake producer |
Black Rock Mining / EcoGraf / Renascor | Natural graphite projects | Australia/Tanzania | Development-stage peers |
Peer Comparison FY2025
| Metric | Syrah (FY2025) | BTR New Material | NOVONIX | Westwater Resources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | US$33.4M | n/v | n/v | n/v (pre-revenue developer †) |
Revenue growth | +5.9% | n/v | n/v | n/v |
Gross margin | -196% | n/v | n/v | n/v |
Net margin | -302% | n/v | n/v | n/v |
R&D intensity | — | n/v | n/v | n/v |
“—” = not publicly disclosed.
