TotalEnergies SE

Note: TotalEnergies reports an IFRS income statement by nature; it does not report gross profit or operating income as such. Proxies are used and labelled. FY2025 figures are from the unaudited consolidated accounts published 11 Feb 2026; audited figures are in the URD 2025 / Form 20-F (2026).

Income statement

Table 6a — Core P&L (USD M)

Sources: FY2022 results (2022, 2021 comparatives) [V]; FY2023 results [V]; FY2025 results (2025, 2024) [V]. FY2021 sales/revenues [R — consistent with FY2022 20-F comparatives]. FY2023 adjusted EBITDA as originally reported; later comparatives may differ marginally.

Revenue CAGR FY2021–FY2025: −0.3% p.a. (computed; revenue tracks commodity prices: Brent averaged ~$71/b in 2021, ~$101/b in 2022, ~$82/b in 2023, $80.8/b in 2024 and $69.1/b in 2025 [V for 2024–2025; R for 2021–2023]).

Table 6b — Margins (% of revenues from sales) [computed]

Table 6c — Additional P&L lines (USD M) [V, FY2024–FY2025]

Pre-tax income FY2022: $43,286 M; FY2023: $34,811 M (consolidated net income plus income taxes; computed from [V] FY2023 accounts).

Table 6d — Per-share data

Sources: FY2023 adjusted EPS per TipRanks summary of FY2023 results [V, secondary]; FY2024–FY2025 [V]. FY2023 share count [R, approximate]. IFRS diluted EPS: FY2024 $6.69; FY2025 $5.78 [V]. IFRS basic EPS: FY2024 $6.74; FY2025 $5.84 [V].

Table 6e — Dividend per share (EUR, ordinary, by fiscal year)

FY2023 €3.01 (+7.1%) [V]; FY2025 €3.40 (+5.6% vs FY2024, implying €3.22) [V]; FY2021–FY2022 [R]. FY2026 interim dividends set at €0.90 (+5.9%) [V].

Commentary. The five-year arc is a commodity super-cycle followed by normalisation. FY2022 was exceptional (adjusted net income $36.2 bn, adjusted EBITDA $71.6 bn) on the post-invasion spike in oil, gas and refining margins, but IFRS profit was depressed by ~$15 bn of Russia-related charges including the Novatek deconsolidation [V]. FY2023 saw IFRS net income rise 4% (no Russia charges) while adjusted income fell 36% [V]. FY2024–FY2025 show steady erosion of adjusted earnings (−21% then −15%) as Brent fell from ~$81 to ~$69/b; the key inflection is that cash flow fell only 7% in FY2025 against a 14–15% oil-price decline, because 3.9% accretive production growth offset roughly $5/b of the $11/b price decline [V]. EBITDA margin has been remarkably stable at ~22–23% outside 2022, testifying to the integrated model's hedging effect. FY2025 IFRS results were weighed by $1.16 bn of impairments (notably offshore wind) and $0.6 bn of negative inventory effects [V].

2026 inflection. The Middle East conflict that began 28 Feb 2026 pushed Brent to an average of $81.1/b in Q1 and $103.8/b in Q2 2026 [V]. H1 2026 IFRS net income reached $11.2 bn (+72% y/y) and adjusted net income $11.4 bn (Q1 $5.39 bn; Q2 $6.03 bn) [V]. Q2 2026 revenues from sales were $57,097 M vs $44,676 M a year earlier; adjusted EBITDA $13.2 bn (+36%) [V].

Balance sheet

Table 6f — Balance-sheet items (USD M) [V, FY2024–FY2025]

Table 6g — Net debt and gearing, five years

Sources: FY2022 and Q1 2023 Form 6-K gearing tables (FY2021–FY2022) [V]; FY2023 gearing 5.0% and net debt "~$6 bn" per FY2023 release and Shareholders' Newsletter #73 [V, net debt rounded]; FY2023 equity from FY2025 statement of changes in equity opening balance [V]; FY2024–FY2025 [V]. FY2021 gearing computed (company-reported value ~15%).

Gearing including leases: 13.8% (FY2024) → 19.7% (FY2025) [V]. 2026 trajectory: 15.5% at 31 Mar 2026 (working-capital build on higher prices) → 13% at 30 Jun 2026 with net debt $19.71 bn → guided below 10% by end-2026 [V].

Commentary. The balance sheet re-levered in 2025 (net debt nearly doubled to $20.2 bn) as the company sustained $7.5 bn of buybacks and $8.1 bn of dividends while CFFO fell, and as it funded acquisitions (VSB, Malaysian blocks, Moho) [V]. Goodwill and intangibles rose $3.1 bn. The 2026 price windfall, divestments ($1.39 bn in Q2 2026 alone [V]) and working-capital release are rapidly reversing this, enabling the shift of policy toward deleveraging below 10% gearing.

Cash flow

Table 6h — Cash-flow metrics (USD M)

Sources: FY2022 CFFO and net investments [V, 2023 Form 6-K]; FY2023 CFFO $35.9 bn and investments $16.8 bn, buybacks $9 bn [V, rounded]; FY2024–FY2025 [V]; FY2022 buybacks $7.0 bn [R]. FY2021: net investments $13,307 M [V]; CFFO and buybacks (~$1.5 bn [R]) not fully verified, hence omitted from the chartable table.

Table 6i — IFRS cash-flow detail (USD M) [V]

Commentary. FY2025 net investments of $17.1 bn included 37% for new oil & gas projects and ~$3.5 bn in low-carbon energies (nearly $3 bn in electricity) [V]. The FY2025 payout of 55% exceeded the >40% policy floor, which is why net debt rose. In 2026 the company guided net investments of ~$15 bn (H1: $7.9 bn) [V] and buybacks of $0.75 bn (Q1), $1.5 bn (Q2), $1.5 bn (Q3) and $2.5 bn (Q4) — $6.25 bn in total [V].

Ratios

Table 6j — Returns and leverage

ROACE FY2022 computed from company ANOI ($38,212 M) and capital employed (Q1 2023 Form 6-K) [V inputs]; FY2023 ~19% per Shareholders' Newsletter #73 [V]; FY2024–FY2025 [V]. ROACE is used as the ROIC proxy.

Table 6k — Further ratios (FY2024–FY2025) [computed from V data]

Commentary. Returns have compressed with prices but remain best-in-class among majors on the company's ROACE metric. The negative cash conversion cycle reflects the classic oil-trading structure (large payables to crude suppliers, partners and host governments) and makes working capital a significant source/use of cash when prices move — visible in the $2–3 bn Q1 2026 working-capital build that was guided in advance [V]. Interest coverage remains strong; leverage ratios are well within A+/Aa3 tolerances.

Price sensitivities (2026, company guidance) [V]: ±$10/b liquids → ±$2.3 bn ANOI / ±$2.8 bn CFFO; ±$2/Mbtu TTF → ±$0.4 bn; ±$1/b European refining margin → ±$0.3 bn ANOI / ±$0.4 bn CFFO; ±$0.10/€ → ∓$0.1 bn ANOI.

Management guidance (latest) [V]: ~$15 bn net investments in 2026; oil & gas growth >3% per year 2025–2030; power >60 TWh in 2026 and 100–120 TWh by 2030; Integrated Power FCF balanced in 2026 and positive in 2027; gearing <10% by end-2026; dividend growth >5% per year to 2030; shareholder return ≥40% of cash flow; Q3 2026 refinery utilisation 80–85%; Middle East impact 5–10% of production.

Bull case

1. Visible FCF growth: Management's ~$10 bn FCF uplift to 2030 at constant prices, from projects already under execution, underwrites >5% dividend growth plus buybacks [V].

2. Price upside with low breakeven: ~$25/b breakeven and $2.8 bn CFFO per $10/b liquids [V] give strong leverage to the elevated 2026 price environment, while Middle East barrels carry lower-than-average cash margins (15% of volume, ~10% of upstream cash flow) [V].

3. Power re-rating optionality: If Integrated Power hits 12% ROACE by 2030 with TTEP's contracted flexible margins, the market may value it closer to utility multiples [V targets].

Bear case

1. Geopolitical concentration: MENA was ~34% of 2025 production [V]; prolonged Hormuz disruption or asset damage (as at SATORP) could impair growth targets.

2. Commodity mean reversion: When Brent fell to $69/b in 2025, gearing rose to 14.7% and adjusted NI fell 15% [V]; a reversal from 2026 levels would compress buybacks.

3. Legal/ESG drag: Greenwashing and vigilance rulings [V] could constrain marketing, raise compliance costs and harden investor exclusion lists.

Key catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)

• Q3 2026 results (29 Oct 2026) [V]; Q4/FY2026 results (10 Feb 2027) [V]; AGM (21 May 2027) [V].

• Papua LNG FID (targeted by end-2026) [V]; Mozambique LNG construction progress [V].

• Restart pace of Qatar, Iraq and UAE offshore production; SATORP return to nominal [V].

• Delivery of gearing <10% and the Q1 2027 buyback ($2–2.5 bn) [V].

• Appeals in the greenwashing and vigilance cases [V].

• Start-ups: NFE (Qatar), Costa Azul, Tilenga, TFT II, Ratawi [V].

Analyst verdict.

TotalEnergies enters the final quarter of 2026 in a stronger position than at any point since the 2022 windfall, but for different reasons. Then, profits were inflated by an extraordinary European gas and refining shock and dented by Russia write-downs. Now, the company is combining an elevated oil-price environment with a structurally better portfolio: new low-cost barrels from Brazil, the US Gulf, Libya and Argentina offset the loss of roughly 210 kboe/d of Middle East output in Q2 2026, and the EPH transaction has given Integrated Power a flexible-generation backbone that should make its cash flows less volatile and its 12% ROACE target more credible.

The September 2026 capital framework is the key analytical anchor. Committing to dividend growth of more than 5% per year through 2030, a minimum 40% cash-flow payout and gearing below 10% is a deliberately conservative trio; it signals confidence that the $10 bn FCF uplift is largely de-risked, while keeping buybacks as the flexible variable. At an estimated ~11x trailing earnings and ~5x EV/EBITDA with a ~4.5% dividend yield (our computations), the valuation does not appear to price in that growth fully, though the comparison base is flattered by 2026 prices.

The principal risks are concentrated rather than diffuse: the Middle East (a third of production), Mozambique security, and French climate litigation that is beginning to produce real legal consequences. Governance is also a watchpoint — the combined Chair/CEO role and raised age limits tie the equity story closely to Patrick Pouyanné.

On balance, the evidence supports a constructive view: TotalEnergies remains the European major with the most coherent and consistently executed strategy, best-in-class returns and a credible pathway to growing distributions. The investment case is most sensitive to Middle East normalisation, the oil price path through 2027, and evidence that Power can earn its cost of capital.