Vantage Corp

Data availability: Audited income statements and cash flows are available for FY2024–FY2026 from the FY2026 results release and 20-F [S1], [S2]. Audited balance sheets in sources reviewed cover March 31, 2025 and March 31, 2026. FY2023 revenue and net income are taken from a data aggregator [S24] and could not be cross-checked against the F-1 financial statements. FY2022 figures are not publicly disclosed (the F-1 presented two fiscal years as permitted for emerging growth companies [S6]). A five-year table is therefore not possible. Tables below show all years available.

Income statement

Source: FY2026 results release and 20-F [S1], [S2]. FY2024 and FY2025 share counts are retroactively presented for 28,000,000 pre-IPO shares. FY2026 net loss attributable to Vantage Corp shareholders, on a comprehensive basis, was USD -1.387M after USD 0.071M attributed to non-controlling interests [S1].

Margins

Derived from [S1]. The FY2026 effective tax rate is negative because tax expense was recorded on a pre-tax loss.

Extended history (revenue and net income)

Sources: FY2024–FY2026 from [S1]. FY2023 net income per [S24]; FY2023 revenue derived from the -16.62% FY2024 growth rate reported by [S24]. FY2023 cash is the FY2024 opening balance in [S1]. The FY2023 growth cell is entered as 0 only as a chart placeholder; FY2022 revenue is not publicly disclosed, so FY2023 growth cannot be calculated.

Revenue CAGR (derived): FY2024–FY2026: -5.6% per year. FY2023–FY2026 (using the aggregator-derived FY2023 base): approximately -9.4% per year.

Half-year progression

H1 figures from [S3]; H2 figures derived as full-year [S1] minus H1 [S3].

Important comparability note: Interim gross margins are not comparable with annual gross margins. The H1 FY2026 interim statement presents cost of revenue "exclusive of depreciation and amortization" at USD 3.60M (gross margin 57.8%), and H1 FY2025 at USD 3.27M (gross margin 68.6%) [S3]. Full-year cost of revenue was USD 10.43M in FY2026 and USD 10.04M in FY2025 [S1]. The implied H2 cost of revenue (about USD 6.8M in each year) is far above H1, suggesting cost classification differs between interim and audited annual statements (for example, year-end recognition of broker compensation). The company did not explain the difference in sources reviewed. Analysts should rely on annual gross margins.

Balance sheet

Source: FY2026 consolidated balance sheets [S1]. Net debt and working capital derived.

Commentary: The company has no bank debt. Its "debt-like" obligations are (a) USD 5.05M of dividends payable (USD 3.55M current, USD 1.50M non-current) that pre-date FY2026 and (b) deferred acquisition consideration, which is the second installment due on the first anniversary of each acquisition's completion [S8] and appears to sit within accruals (the 20-F cash flow shows USD 0.305M of interest expense on deferred consideration [S1]). The holders of the dividend payable were not identified in sources reviewed.

Equity was negative at March 31, 2025 because pre-IPO dividends exceeded retained earnings. IPO proceeds (USD 11.32M net of issuance costs, booked as share issuance proceeds and additional paid-in capital) restored positive equity [S1]. At September 30, 2025, total assets were USD 20.68M and equity USD 12.51M [S3], so equity declined by USD 2.57M in H2 FY2026 through losses, buybacks and dividend-related movements.

Goodwill and intangibles of USD 4.15M represent 47% of attributable equity (derived), and tangible book value attributable to shareholders is approximately USD 4.67M (derived).

Cash flow

Source: consolidated statements of cash flows [S1]. Free cash flow derived as operating cash flow minus capex.

Commentary: Cash conversion has been weak and erratic. In FY2024, net income of USD 4.95M produced negative operating cash flow because of a USD 5.04M reduction in accruals. In FY2026, a USD -1.32M net loss became USD -4.45M operating cash outflow, driven by a USD 1.85M increase in prepaid and other current assets and a USD 1.18M increase in receivables [S1]. Across FY2024–FY2026, cumulative net income was USD 7.48M while cumulative free cash flow was USD -3.10M (derived). Over the same period the company paid USD 15.74M in dividends, mostly in FY2025 before the IPO (derived from [S1]). IPO proceeds have effectively funded the FY2026 operating outflow, acquisitions, dividends and buybacks.

Per-share data

Derived from [S1]. The FY2024 book value cell is a placeholder because the FY2024 balance sheet was not in sources reviewed. Declared dividends per share were not publicly disclosed in sources reviewed. One aggregator shows different per-share dividend figures (0.03, 0.07 and 0.37 for FY2023–FY2025) [S30-alt: roic.ai, see S29 note]; the discrepancy likely reflects declared versus paid timing and is unresolved.

Ratios

All derived from [S1].

Ratios not meaningful or not computable:

ROE: FY2025 not meaningful because year-end equity was negative. FY2026 ROE on year-end total equity was -13.2% (derived).

ROIC: Not meaningful given negative FY2026 operating income and the negative FY2025 equity base.

Debt/equity: Zero bank debt. Lease liabilities to total equity were 0.10x at FY2026 (derived).

Net debt/EBITDA: Not meaningful (net cash position and negative FY2026 EBITDA).

FY2024 interest coverage: about 630x (derived).

Cash conversion cycle: The company holds no inventory, so the cycle reduces to receivable days less payable days. The lengthening from 72 to 106 days is a meaningful deterioration, partly attributable to consolidating acquired businesses near year-end.

Trend analysis

Revenue: Revenue has declined every year since FY2023, cumulatively by roughly 26% (derived). Management attributes FY2026 weakness to softer freight markets, lower transaction volumes and trade uncertainty, partly offset by time-charter commissions [S1]. H1 FY2026 specifically cited tariffs, July 2025 sanctions and lower DPP revenue [S3]. Importantly, management reports that fixture volume rose while revenue fell [S1], implying lower revenue per fixture (lower freight rates or smaller deal sizes). The CFO specifically noted weakness in larger-quantum deals [S1]. Revenue per head fell to about USD 140,000 in H1 FY2026 from about USD 197,000 a year earlier, according to the earnings call [S20].

Gross margin: Gross margin fell 4.7 points in FY2026, attributed to higher employee compensation and commission expense from increased headcount [S1]. Headcount growth ahead of revenue is the core margin issue.

Operating expenses: Opex nearly doubled (USD 4.20M to USD 8.24M), with G&A up 120%. Drivers cited were acquired-business expenses, USD 0.083M of acquisition transaction costs, and public-company costs [S1]. G&A alone (USD 6.16M) exceeded FY2026 gross profit (USD 7.41M) less selling expense (derived).

Inflection: FY2026 marks the transition from a highly profitable private partnership-style broker (24.8% net margin in FY2024) to a loss-making listed company. The H2 FY2026 loss of USD 2.79M (derived) is the key data point: it includes the first quarter of consolidation of the acquired businesses, which were expected to contribute about USD 3.5M of annual revenue at a 22.3% net margin based on their fiscal 2024 results [S8]. The FY2026 20-F cautions that historical performance of the acquired businesses may not be indicative of future results [S2].

Management guidance

No quantitative guidance. Qualitatively, management expects H1 FY2027 (April–September 2026) to reflect the full impact of Strait of Hormuz restrictions, while reporting that fixture volumes in recent months have been stable to slightly higher year over year [S1]. The CFO stated results may remain affected until restrictions and the broader geopolitical environment normalize [S1]. Management targets OpsWiz monetization by the end of 2026 [S1], which began with the Felcor contract [S11].

Consensus expectations

None (no analyst coverage) [S29].

Bull case

1. Operating leverage on recovery: Fixture volume has held up while revenue per fixture fell [S1]. If freight values and deal sizes recover as Gulf trade normalizes, revenue can rebound against a cost base already enlarged for scale. FY2024's 29.2% operating margin [S1] demonstrates the model's earning power at about USD 20M of revenue.

2. Cheap asset base: At about USD 11.7M EV (derived), the market values the company at roughly 0.66x FY2026 sales and below the USD 14.95M raised at IPO, despite net cash, no bank debt, and acquired businesses expected to generate about USD 3.5M of revenue at a 22.3% margin [S8].

3. Optionality from OpsWiz and China: A first external software customer [S11] and a China petrochemical platform described as relatively insulated [S1] provide diversification that a pure spot broker lacks.

Bear case

1. Structural cost problem: Opex nearly doubled to USD 8.24M while revenue fell [S1]. The H2 FY2026 loss of USD 2.79M (derived) includes the acquired businesses, yet the loss widened, which suggests acquisitions have not yet offset public-company and integration costs.

2. Cash erosion and listing risk: Operating cash flow was USD -4.45M in FY2026 [S1]. With deferred acquisition payments due around early 2027 and no visible earnings recovery, cash could fall materially. A sub-USD 1 share price and proposed NYSE American hard delisting triggers [S2] create real listing risk if the price or market cap falls further.

3. Minority shareholder disadvantage: Founders control 95.19% of votes [S2], and the share price history (USD 7.66 to under USD 1 within weeks, with no business change disclosed [S15]) shows the stock trades on float dynamics rather than fundamentals. Minorities have little influence over capital allocation, including further acquisitions.

Key catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)

Analyst verdict

Vantage Corp is a small but genuine tanker shipbroker whose public-market story has diverged sharply from its operating history. Before listing, the business was a lean, founder-run partnership that converted roughly USD 20 million of commissions into net margins above 20%. Since listing in June 2025, three things have happened at once: tanker trade has been disrupted by tariffs, sanctions and Strait of Hormuz restrictions; the company has added public-company costs and a larger headcount; and it has spent part of its IPO proceeds on three Asian acquisitions, buybacks and pre-IPO dividend settlements. The result is a business that is smaller in revenue, larger in cost, and loss-making, with FY2026 operating cash outflow of USD 4.45 million.

The positives are real but modest. The balance sheet is free of bank debt, management reports resilient fixture volumes, time-charter commissions grew, and OpsWiz has a first paying customer. The China acquisitions were priced at a low multiple of historical earnings. At an enterprise value near USD 12–17 million, the market is pricing the company close to its cash and tangible assets, which provides some valuation support.

However, three issues dominate the investment case. First, there is no evidence yet that the enlarged platform can return to profitability; the second half of FY2026 was worse than the first. Second, disclosure is thin: revenue by desk, full-year geography, acquired-business contribution, compensation and customer concentration are unavailable in sources reviewed. Third, minority investors have negligible governance influence, and the share price has shown extreme volatility unrelated to disclosed fundamentals.

On balance, Vantage is a speculative recovery situation. The most important near-term evidence will be the H1 FY2027 results: specifically the acquired businesses' contribution, cost discipline, and the cash balance ahead of the deferred acquisition payments.