VIMY RESOURCES LIMITED Overview
Deep Yellow is a pre-revenue, ASX 200 uranium developer. It owns one of the largest uranium resource inventories among ASX-listed companies, which the company has cited at about 409 Mlb U3O8. That inventory spans two Tier-1 jurisdictions: Namibia and Australia.
The flagship asset is the Tumas project in Namibia's Erongo uranium province. Tumas is a fully permitted, shallow, open-pit palaeochannel deposit targeting about 3.6 Mlb U3O8 a year over a mine life now quoted at 30 years.
The second pillar is the former Vimy Mulga Rock project in Western Australia. It holds State Ministerial approval to mine and is being re-engineered as a polymetallic uranium plus critical-minerals operation.
Exploration upside comes from the Alligator River province in the Northern Territory and from Namibian tributary palaeochannels.
The company's stated ambition is multi-mine production of 7–10+ Mlb a year. However, in October 2026 it withdrew its Q4 2026 Final Investment Decision (FID) target for Tumas, citing equity-market conditions. That decision leaves funding, rather than geology, as the central investment question.
What the company does
Deep Yellow explores for, evaluates and develops uranium deposits, with the aim of becoming a producer of uranium oxide concentrate (U3O8, or "yellowcake"). It has no producing operations and no product sales revenue.
Its reported "revenue" consists mainly of:
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interest earned on cash and term deposits
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government grants and tax incentives, chiefly Australian R&D-related refunds
For example, the June 2026 quarterly cash-flow report shows A$1.774 million of interest received and A$2.685 million of grants and tax incentives in that single quarter (Appendix 5B, 28 July 2026).
Business model
The model is a classic mining-developer value chain:
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Acquire or explore prospective tenure.
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Define resources under the JORC 2012 code.
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De-risk through feasibility studies, permitting, engineering and early works.
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Fund construction through a mix of equity, project debt and potentially offtake-linked financing or prepayments.
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Produce and sell U3O8 under long-term contracts to nuclear utilities, with some spot exposure.
Corporate value today is effectively the market's risk-weighted net asset value (NAV) of the development pipeline, plus cash.
Revenue model (prospective)
| Revenue stream | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| U3O8 sales (term contracts with utilities) | Prospective. Contingent on Tumas FID, construction and commissioning. | Utility term contracting is the norm. Deep Yellow has indicated it wants exposure to uranium price upside. |
| U3O8 spot sales | Prospective | Typically a minority of volumes for new producers |
| By-product vanadium (V2O5) from Tumas | Prospective | Tumas studies have historically credited vanadium by-product against costs (2021 PFS cost basis) |
| By-product base metals and rare earths from Mulga Rock | Prospective; under study | The revised Mulga Rock DFS is assessing recovery of copper, zinc, nickel, cobalt and rare earths |
| Interest income | Current | The main income line while cash balances are large |
| Grants and tax incentives | Current | Australian R&D-type refunds |
Product vs service vs subscription vs licensing: 100% prospective product revenue (commodity). There is no service, subscription or licensing revenue.
Value-chain position
Deep Yellow sits at the upstream mining and milling stage of the nuclear fuel cycle, which runs:
mining/milling → conversion → enrichment → fuel fabrication → reactor
It will sell U3O8 to utilities, or to traders and financial buyers such as physical uranium funds. Converters (e.g., Cameco, Orano, ConverDyn) then process the material further. The company has no announced downstream integration.
Customer types and end-markets
| Customer type | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Nuclear utilities | North America, Europe and Asia (Japan, Korea, China, India) | Target customers; no binding offtake disclosed in sources reviewed |
| Uranium traders and financial entities | Physical funds and traders | Potential buyers |
| Strategic or state entities | e.g., Japan's JOGMEC, a historic Nova JV partner | Strategic relationships |
End-market: nuclear power generation. Demand is driven by reactor life extensions, new builds, restarts, small modular reactor (SMR) programmes and data-centre power demand.
Company's own description vs independent characterisation
Company's own framing (paraphrased from releases and presentations, 2025–2026): Deep Yellow describes a "dual-pillar" growth strategy. The two pillars are:
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advanced projects in two Tier-1 uranium jurisdictions (Tumas in Namibia and Mulga Rock in Western Australia)
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a high-quality exploration portfolio in Namibia and the Alligator River province
The stated goal is a geographically diversified, multi-mine producer targeting more than 10 Mlb a year. The September 2026 investor update re-emphasised disciplined execution, prudent risk management and exposure to uranium price upside, with Tumas positioned as the first step.
Independent characterisation: Deep Yellow is a well-capitalised but funding-gated single-project developer in practice.
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Tumas carries almost all near-term value and must be financed at a capital cost of roughly US$474 million (April 2025 estimate).
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Mulga Rock is a real-option second asset whose timing is explicitly sequenced about two years behind Tumas.
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Alligator River is a long-dated exploration option.
The company's three successive FID deferrals (December 2024, April 2025 and October 2026) show that management has prioritised:
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avoiding heavy dilution at depressed equity prices
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retaining price exposure rather than locking in low long-term contract prices
The cost of that approach is schedule slippage and a large share-price de-rating.
Strategy
Stated strategy (themes)
| Theme | Content |
|---|---|
| Dual-pillar growth | Advanced development assets (Tumas, Mulga Rock) plus high-quality exploration (Namibia, Alligator River) |
| Scale ambition | Multi-mine, geographically diversified producer. Company language has cited targets ranging from 7+ Mlb/yr (Tumas plus Mulga Rock) to 10+ Mlb/yr long term. |
| Value discipline | Avoid FID until market conditions support it; preserve exposure to uranium price upside |
| Execution excellence | Leadership with large-project credentials (Field ex-Rio Tinto; Salisbury ex-ERA/Rössing); in-country Namibian leadership and workforce development (Investor update, Sep 2026) |
| Sector consolidation | The Vimy merger was framed as the first step in consolidating the sector (merger release, 2022) |
Initiatives in the last 24 months (Oct 2024–Oct 2026)
| Initiative | Date | Detail | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Staged Tumas development | Apr 2025 | Board approved detailed engineering, early works and financing work, but deferred process-plant construction pending better pricing | Ongoing; plant FID withdrawn Oct 2026 |
| EPCM appointment | Jun 2025 | EPCM contractor with uranium processing expertise appointed | In place |
| Tumas resource and reserve growth | 2024–2026 | Tumas 3 upgrade; reserve base supporting 30-year life of mine (Oct 2026) | Complete / ongoing |
| Mulga Rock polymetallic revised DFS | 2024–2026 | Mini-pilot (2025); trade-off studies; revised geometallurgical model (June 2026 quarter) | Q3 2026 target; completion and publication not confirmed as of 18 Oct 2026 |
| Water security | Aug 2026 | Long-term NamWater supply agreement covering construction, commissioning and operations | Executed |
| Power supply | FY2026 | Power supply agreement executed | Executed |
| Local ownership | Aug 2026 | Oponona agreements under a previously disclosed binding Heads of Agreement; Oponona's costs carried as an interest-free loan | Executed |
| Construction readiness | 2,026 | Bulk earthworks complete; >A$34 million civils and concrete; N$42.1 million local contracts | Ongoing |
| Exploration expansion | 2025–2026 | S-Bend, Tinkas, Alligator River (Cooper Creek JV 50%, King River camp) | Ongoing |
| Leadership renewal | Oct 2025–Feb 2026 | New CEO and board changes | Complete |
| Tumas optimisation and updated economics | Oct 2026 | Comprehensive project update pending | Pending |
Guidance and medium-term targets
| Item | Latest guidance | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Tumas FID | No date (Q4 2026 target withdrawn on 15–16 Oct 2026) | ASX, 16 Oct 2026 |
| Tumas first production | Previously 3Q CY2027 (company's March 2026 timeline, per Zacks). Now indeterminate. | Zacks SCR, Apr 2026 |
| Mulga Rock | First product ~2 years after Tumas commences | Q4 FY2026 update |
| Tumas production rate | ~3.6 Mlb/yr | Company |
| Financial targets (revenue, EBITDA) | None issued | — |
Products & Services
Deep Yellow's "products" are its mineral projects. The single prospective saleable product is U3O8 concentrate, with possible by-products. Each asset is catalogued below.
NAMIBIA
Tumas Project (flagship) — Reptile project area, Erongo Region
| Attribute | Detail | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Ownership | Deep Yellow ~95%; local partner Oponona holds the balance. Oponona's share of historic and future spend is carried as an interest-free loan repayable from future dividends. | Yahoo Finance profile; Motley Fool, 26 Aug 2026 |
| Deposit type | Surficial calcrete-hosted palaeochannel uranium (Tumas 1, 1 East, 2, 3 and Tubas) | Mining Weekly |
| Tenure | Mining Licence ML237, granted Dec 2023. Environmental Clearance Certificates renewed to 2029 (Oct 2026). | Windhoek Observer; Motley Fool, 16 Oct 2026 |
| Mining method | Shallow open pit, simple free-dig/drill-blast; conventional processing | Investor update, Sep 2026 |
| Production target | ~3.6 Mlb U3O8 per year | Company project information |
| Mine life | 30 years (company update, 3 Oct 2026). Earlier quoted as 20+ years and 22.5 years. | Discovery Alert, 16 Oct 2026 |
| Reserves | Proved Reserves of 28.4 Mlb at 287 ppm U3O8 cited as part of a 30-year life-of-mine reserve base. Earlier DFS reserve: 67.3 Mlb. | Simply Wall St (company data); Windhoek Observer |
| Resources | Tumas 3 Mineral Resource of 66.8 Mlb at 300 ppm eU3O8, with Indicated of 60.6 Mlb at 325 ppm (2024 upgrade). Tumas Measured and Indicated of 102.1 Mlb at 268 ppm (Sep 2024). | The Brief; Mining Weekly |
| Initial capex | US$474 million (Apr 2025), up from US$360 million (Dec 2023 DFS review) | FilingReader; Mining Weekly |
| C1 operating cost | US$35.02/lb U3O8, average for the first 20 years (Apr 2025) | FilingReader |
| Economics (Apr 2025) | Post-tax NPV US$577 million and IRR 19% at US$82.50/lb | FilingReader |
| Economics (Dec 2023 DFS review) | Post-tax NPV US$570 million and IRR 27% at US$75/lb; NPV US$878 million and IRR 36.1% at US$90/lb | Mining Weekly |
| By-product | Vanadium (historic study basis) | 2021 PFS |
| Development status (Oct 2026) | Detailed engineering 79% complete (June quarter). Bulk earthworks complete. Civil and concrete works (>A$34 million contracts) underway, with ~170 t of reinforcing steel installed. Four local contracts worth N$42.1 million (~A$3.7 million) awarded. FID target withdrawn. | Quarterly reports; Surestone, 16 Oct 2026 |
| Next step | Optimisation study and updated economic assessment, to be released as a comprehensive project update | ASX, 16 Oct 2026 |
Tumas tributary and regional exploration targets (Namibia)
| Target | Description | Latest status |
|---|---|---|
| S-Bend prospect | Tributary palaeochannel; drilling confirmed uranium extensions (Oct 2025); ground radiometrics commenced in the June 2026 quarter | ASX, 14 Oct 2025; Jun 2026 quarterly |
| Tinkas | Exploration target with significant drilling results reported in FY2026 | FY2026 results summary |
| Omahola | Basement-hosted (alaskite-type) resource of ~125 Mlb at 190 ppm (company brochure figure) | Deep Yellow corporate brochure |
| Aussinanis | Calcrete deposit on MDRL3498 (excluded from the Tumas palaeodrainage total) | Motley Fool, 2024 |
| Nova JV | Exploration JV historically with Toro Energy, JOGMEC and Sixzone; Deep Yellow manager | Historic ASX releases |
| Yellow Dune JV | 85%-owned exploration ground | parqet profile |
AUSTRALIA
Mulga Rock Project (ex-Vimy) — Great Victoria Desert, WA (~290 km by road ENE of Kalgoorlie)
| Attribute | Detail | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Ownership | 100% Deep Yellow (via Vimy) | Company project page |
| Deposits | Mulga Rock East (Ambassador and Princess) and Mulga Rock West (Shogun and Emperor), spread over ~30 km | Company project page |
| Resource | 104.8 Mlb U3O8 (115 Mt at ~415–420 ppm), Measured, Indicated and Inferred. Mulga Rock East is 71.2 Mlb, up from Vimy's 56.7 Mlb; 86% of it is Measured and Indicated. | World Nuclear News; company page |
| Approvals | One of only four WA uranium projects with State Ministerial approval to mine. Granted Mining Lease. Sandhill Dunnart Conservation Plan approved. | Company page; Oct 2023 brochure |
| Original DFS (Vimy, 2018) | ~3.5 Mlb/yr, 15-year life of mine | Company page |
| Revised DFS | Polymetallic concept (uranium plus copper, zinc, nickel, cobalt and rare earths). A three-month resin mini-pilot showed improved recoveries. Completion guided to Q3 2026; work was ongoing at the September 2026 results. | TipRanks; Motley Fool, Jul 2025; FY2026 summary |
| Production sequencing | First product about two years after Tumas commences production | Q4 FY2026 update |
| Recovery assumptions (broker) | Macquarie cited ~85% overall recoveries supporting a longer-life 3.5 Mlb/yr case | Motley Fool, 11 Jul 2025 |
Alligator River Project (ex-Vimy, ex-Cameco) — Arnhem Land, NT
| Attribute | Detail | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Ownership | 100% Deep Yellow (via Vimy), plus a 50% interest in the Cooper Creek JV acquired in the June 2026 quarter | Jun 2026 quarterly |
| Geology | Unconformity-related, high-grade uranium | — |
| Resource | Angularli deposit: ~26 Mlb at 1.29% U3O8 Inferred (Vimy-era figure). Company brochure cites an Alligator River resource of 33 Mlb at 1.09% U3O8. | G2 summary; Deep Yellow brochure |
| Status | Exploration. King River camp established (June 2026 quarter). Significant drilling results reported in FY2026. | Jun 2026 quarterly; FY2026 summary |
| Historic analogue | The former Nabarlek mine (1980–88), 65 km south of Angularli | World Nuclear News |
Relinquished asset
| Asset | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Kingston (Australia) | Relinquished; associated costs expensed in H1 FY2026 | Capital Brief, Mar 2026 |
Pricing model
U3O8 is sold on a mix of term contracts (base-escalated or market-referenced) and spot. Deep Yellow has not publicly disclosed binding offtake terms.
For reference, the long-term uranium price was cited at US$96.50/lb in mid-October 2026 (Discovery Alert, 16 October 2026). That is well above the US$82.50/lb Tumas economic base case from April 2025.
Financial Narrative
Important context: Deep Yellow is pre-revenue. Many conventional metrics are not meaningful, including gross profit, EBITDA margins, net debt/EBITDA, the cash conversion cycle and ROIC on operating assets. They are shown as blank where undisclosed, or discussed qualitatively.
The NSX/JSE short-form notices label some figures "USD".
Income statement (chartable)
Sources:
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FY2024 and FY2025: NSX/JSE short-form annual report notice (26 September 2025). The notice reports a FY2024 operating loss before tax of A$10.64 million and EPS of -1.31c, and FY2025 EPS of 0.74c.
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FY2026: results summary (15 September 2026), which reports NPAT of A$13.3 million vs A$7.2 million in FY2025, and EPS of 1.37c vs 0.74c.
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Dividends: nil for FY2024–FY2026 per annual notices.
Half-year income data (chartable)
Sources: NSX/JSE half-year notices (13 March 2025 and 6 March 2026); Capital Brief (March 2026).
Balance sheet (chartable)
Sources:
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FY2025 cash: Capital Brief (A$217.4 million at 1 July 2025).
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FY2026 cash, at-call deposits and net assets: FY2026 results summary.
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The June 2026 Appendix 5B shows cash and cash equivalents of A$159.976 million.
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FY2026 shares on issue: approximate. The 31 December 2025 figure was 974,154,596; by October 2026 the count was ~974.4 million.
Debt: No unused financing facilities as of 30 June 2026 (Appendix 5B). Financing outflows were limited to lease payments (A$61,000 in the June 2026 quarter). Third-party ratio data show debt-to-equity below 0.01 (TipRanks).
Earlier cash datapoints (not fiscal year-end):
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A$69.4 million at 31 March 2022, before the merger (quarterly report).
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A$227 million at 31 March 2025 (FilingReader).
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A$187.2 million at 31 December 2025.
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A$171.56 million at 31 March 2026.
Cash flow (chartable)
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Entity / Interest Details
| Entity / interest | Jurisdiction | Holds | Ownership |
|---|---|---|---|
Deep Yellow Limited | Australia | Parent; ASX/NSX/OTCQX-listed | — |
Reptile Uranium Namibia (Pty) Ltd | Namibia | Reptile project, including the Tumas deposits; ML237 | 100% subsidiary at project level. Local partner Oponona holds an interest in the Tumas project (Yahoo Finance profile describes Tumas as 95% owned by Deep Yellow). |
Reptile Mineral Resources and Exploration (Pty) Ltd | Namibia | Nova JV manager | Deep Yellow subsidiary |
Nova Joint Venture | Namibia | EPLs 3669/3670 (historic) | Deep Yellow 65% (per parqet profile; historically adjusted by the JOGMEC right-to-equity) |
Yellow Dune Joint Venture | Namibia | Exploration ground (~190 km²) | Deep Yellow 85% (per parqet profile) |
Vimy Resources Limited | Australia | Mulga Rock (WA) and Alligator River (NT) | 100% subsidiary since Aug 2022 |
Cooper Creek JV (Alligator River province) | Australia (NT) | Exploration | 50% acquired in the June 2026 quarter |
Results by Segment
| Metric (AUD Mn; blank = not publicly disclosed) | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
Group net profit after tax | -10.6 | 7.2 | 13.3 |
Per-Share Data
| Metric (AUD Mn unless stated; blank = not disclosed/verified) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sales revenue (U3O8) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Profit/(loss) before tax | — | — | -10.6 | — | — |
Net profit/(loss) after tax | — | — | -10.6 | 7.2 | 13.3 |
EPS basic (A cents) | — | — | -1.31 | 0.74 | 1.37 |
EPS diluted (A cents) | — | — | -1.31 | 0.74 | 1.37 |
Dividends per share (A cents) | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Income Statement and Per-Share Data
| Metric (AUD Mn) | H1FY2024 | H1FY2025 | H1FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
Profit/(loss) before tax | -6.19 | -2.47 | -7.78 |
Revenue (other income) | — | 6.92 | 4.0 |
EPS basic (A cents) | -0.82 | -0.26 | -0.80 |
Net asset value at 31 Dec | 374.7 | 621.0 | 641.3 |
Share Count (M)
| — | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|
Cash and cash equivalents (incl. at-call deposits) | 217.4 | 159.6 |
Total debt (borrowings) | 0 | 0 |
Net debt (negative = net cash; derived) | -217.4 | -159.6 |
Total equity / net assets | 633.2 | 660.8 |
Shares on issue (M) | 972.9 | 974.2 |
Financial Analysis
| — | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
Operating cash flow | — | — | -49.5 |
Equity raised (gross) | 250 | — | 0 |
Dividends paid | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Share buybacks | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Financial Analysis — Operating outflow
| Item | AUD Mn |
|---|---|
Operating outflow | 10.28 |
Investing outflow | 2.93 (incl. 2.76 of exploration and evaluation) |
Financing outflow | 0.061 |
Exploration, evaluation and development payments within operating | 11.151 |
Development expenditure | 11.2 |
Quarters of funding available at current burn | 12 (company estimate) |
Returns & Leverage Ratios (%) and Financial Ratios (x)
| Ratio | FY2025 | FY2026 | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
ROE (derived; NPAT / average equity) | ~1.2% | ~2.1% | Interest-driven, not operational |
Current ratio | ~59.9x (Dec 2024) | ~30.2x (TTM) | TipRanks; reflects a cash-heavy balance sheet |
Debt/equity | <0.01 | <0.01 | Leases only |
Geographic Revenue
| Indicator | Detail | Source |
|---|---|---|
Namibia operating spend FY2023 | ~N$167 million (~A$12.8 million total group spend in Namibia, incl. ~A$11.4 million operating costs) | 2023 Sustainability Report (via Windhoek Observer) |
Namibia local wages FY2023 | ~N$18 million | Same |
Tumas development spend | A$11.2 million in the June 2026 quarter alone; plus >A$34 million of civil and concrete contracts | Jun 2026 quarterly; Aug 2026 update |
Australia | Mulga Rock revised DFS and pilot work; Alligator River drilling and camp establishment | Quarterly reports |
Share Price History
| Date | Price (AUD) | Context | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
11 Mar 2024 | 1.225 | Placement price | Placement release |
19 Dec 2024 | ~1.055 | After the FID deferral | Motley Fool |
14 Oct 2025 | 2.07 | Pre-CEO exit | InvestSMART |
Jan 2026 | 2.97 | 52-week high | ad-hoc-news |
9 Feb 2026 | 2.38 | — | FNArena |
1 Jul 2026 | 1.43 | Market cap ~A$1.40 billion | InvestSMART |
28 Jul 2026 | 1.345 | June quarterly release | InvestSMART |
30 Sep 2026 | ~1.20 | ~-26% for September | MarketScreener |
16 Oct 2026 | 0.82 | Post FID withdrawal; 52-week low A$0.813 | ad-hoc-news / HotCopper |
Share Price & Returns
| Period | Return | Source |
|---|---|---|
1 week to ~16 Oct 2026 | ~-25% | TradingView |
1 month | ~-37% | TradingView |
1 year | ~-66% | TradingView |
From 52-week high | ~-72% | ad-hoc-news |
Valuation Multiples
| Multiple | Deep Yellow | Basis |
|---|---|---|
Market cap | ~A$799 million | ad-hoc-news |
Enterprise value (derived) | ~A$640 million | Market cap less A$159.6 million cash at 30 Jun 2026; no debt. Actual cash today is lower. |
P/E | ~60x (trailing; interest-driven earnings) | ad-hoc-news |
P/B (derived) | ~1.2x | Market cap / A$660.8 million net assets |
EV per resource lb (derived) | ~A$1.6/lb | EV ~A$640 million / ~409 Mlb company-cited resource |
Analyst Ratings & Targets
| Broker | Rating | Target (AUD) | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Canaccord Genuity | Speculative Buy | 2.90 | 6 Oct 2026 | Discovery Alert |
Macquarie | Buy / Outperform | 1.95 | 14 Oct 2026 | ad-hoc-news |
Jefferies | Underperform | 2.20 | Mar 2026 | Stock Track |
Consensus | Average ~A$1.89; range A$1.19–2.90 | — | Oct 2026 | Yahoo Finance |
Capital Markets
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
Dividend policy | No dividends paid (nil FY2024–FY2026); none expected pre-production |
Buybacks | None authorised |
Credit ratings (Moody's / S&P / Fitch) | Not rated |
Debt maturity profile | No borrowings; lease liabilities only |
Balance Sheet
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
Gross equity raised (AUD Mn) | 250 | 0 | 0 |
Analyst Conclusions
Management guidance (as of 18 October 2026)
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Tumas FID: no date. The Q4 2026 target was withdrawn because equity-market conditions do not support it.
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Current civils and concrete works at Tumas are fully funded from existing cash.
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A comprehensive project update, including the optimisation study and updated economic assessment, is to be released.
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Mulga Rock will follow about two years after Tumas production starts. Release of the revised DFS is pending.
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No revenue or earnings guidance has been issued.
Consensus expectations
Earlier consensus (Simply Wall St, 2024–2025 vintage) projected a first profit of about A$35–64 million in FY2027 on the assumption that Tumas would be producing. That assumption is now invalid given the FID withdrawal, and consensus will likely shift production revenue to FY2029 or later.
Bull case
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Price-capital disconnect should close. Long-term uranium at US$96.50/lb sits well above the US$82.50/lb deck on which Tumas showed a post-tax NPV of US$577 million. Updated economics at current prices should lift NPV materially and support debt sizing.
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Deep asset discount. At an EV of about A$640 million (derived), the market values a fully permitted, 30-year, 3.6 Mlb/yr project, plus a 104.8 Mlb approved WA project and Alligator River, at well below book value of A$660.8 million plus cash backing.
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Strategic capital catalysts. Soul Patts (~11.8%), thematic funds and potential utility or state partners make a partner-led or prepayment-backed funding solution plausible. That would reduce dilution risk.
Bear case
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Dilution arithmetic is severe. Raising even part of a ~A$750 million capex bill at A$0.82 would heavily dilute holders. Deferring instead burns cash: about A$57 million in FY2026, with construction spend continuing.
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Credibility deficit. Multiple FID deferrals, capex inflation of 32% and an IRR fall from 27% to 19% suggest further cost or schedule risk. A leadership team new to the asset must rebuild market trust.
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Tenure and execution risk. An unresolved ML237 challenge, related impairments, and a greenfield construction start in a market where producer peers have faced ramp-up difficulties.
Catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)
| Catalyst | Expected timing | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Comprehensive Tumas project update (optimisation and economics) | Near term (date not given) | Resets NPV, capex and C1; basis for financing |
| September 2026 quarterly report (with cash balance) | Late Oct 2026 | Confirms runway after civils spend |
| 2026 AGM | Nov–Dec 2026 | Board, remuneration votes, strategy commentary |
| Funding announcements (debt mandates, offtake, strategic equity) | Unscheduled | The key unlock for an FID |
| Mulga Rock revised DFS release | Overdue vs Q3 2026 guidance | Second-pillar value; critical-minerals credits |
| ML237 litigation developments | Unscheduled | Tenure certainty for lenders |
| Exploration results (S-Bend, Tinkas, Alligator River) | Ongoing | Life-of-mine extension; option value |
| Uranium term price and utility contracting | Continuous | Drives economics and lender appetite |
| Half-year results (H1 FY2027) | ~Mar 2027 | Burn rate and impairments |
Analyst verdict
The Vimy Resources investment case now lives entirely inside Deep Yellow. The question that matters is no longer resource quality but capital access.
Operationally, Deep Yellow has done much of what a developer should. Tumas is fully permitted and its environmental certificates run to 2029. Bulk earthworks are finished and engineering is roughly 80% complete. Water and power agreements are signed, local ownership is resolved, and civils contracts are being executed and paid for from cash. The asset base is genuinely large: a 30-year Tumas plan, an approved 104.8 Mlb Mulga Rock project, and Alligator River exploration optionality. The balance sheet is debt-free, with about A$160 million at June 2026.
Yet the October 2026 withdrawal of the FID target is a candid admission. At an A$0.82 share price, roughly two-thirds below a year earlier, the equity component of a US$474 million build cannot be raised without unacceptable dilution. Management's choice is rational. It continues low-regret civils, refreshes the economics at a uranium price well above the 2025 study deck, and avoids locking in value destruction. But it extends a pattern of slippage that has already cost credibility, and it consumes cash.
Our synthesis: Deep Yellow trades as an option on a funding solution. With EV near book value and broker targets clustered between A$1.19 and A$2.90, the asymmetry is positive if the forthcoming project update demonstrates materially improved economics and a credible, partly non-dilutive financing structure follows. Such a structure could include project debt, an offtake prepayment or a strategic or utility equity partner, with the Soul Patts block a potential anchor. Absent that, the stock risks a dilutive recapitalisation at depressed levels.
Stance: Speculative; high risk, high leverage to the uranium cycle. Position size should reflect binary funding risk. The next project update and the September-quarter cash disclosure are the decisive near-term monitorables.
SOURCE LIST (primary and secondary references used)
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ASX / NSX (JSE SENS) releases: 14 Jan 2026 CEO commencement; 2 Dec 2025 CEO appointment; 20 Oct 2025 leadership transition; 2 Feb 2026 director resignation; 20 Feb 2025 legal proceedings; Form 604 notices (Sprott, 9 Jan 2026; VanEck, 12 Feb and 24 Jun 2026); half-year report notice, 6 Mar 2026; Appendix 2A, 9 Oct 2026; June 2026 quarterly and Appendix 5B, 28 Jul 2026.
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Deep Yellow website and project pages (Mulga Rock); corporate brochures (2023–2024); 2017 Annual Report; historic ASX releases (2009, 2017, 2021, 2022).
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Motley Fool Australia (Jul, Aug and Oct 2026); Capital Brief; FilingReader; Discovery Alert (16 Oct 2026); Surestone (16 Oct 2026); Market Matters; Quartr event summaries (FY2026 results, Q4 FY2026 update, Sep 2026 investor update).
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Zacks SCR research (Jul 2022, Dec 2025, Apr 2026); Macquarie, Canaccord and Jefferies views as reported by media.
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Market data: ad-hoc-news (15–16 Oct 2026), HotCopper, TradingView, Google Finance, Yahoo Finance, MarketScreener, InvestSMART, FNArena, TipRanks, Simply Wall St, parqet.
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View Subscription PlansExecutive Leadership
Executive Leadership Team
| Name | Title | Tenure | Background | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Greg Field | Managing Director and CEO | Since 2 Feb 2026 (appointed 2 Dec 2025) | Qualified mining engineer with ~29 years' experience. Former Managing Director – Project Development at Rio Tinto. Delivered projects across diamonds, copper, aluminium and lithium. Began his career in South Africa; familiar with Namibia; worked in WA including at Argyle Diamonds. | ASX, 2 Dec 2025; Mining Weekly; Engineering News |
Craig Barnes | Chief Financial Officer | CFO; Acting CEO from 20 Oct 2025 to 2 Feb 2026 | Experienced mining finance executive | ASX releases |
Jim Morgan | Head of Project Delivery | Appointment announced 30 Sep (year shown as 2025 in the source listing) | Project delivery | Simply Wall St announcement feed |
John Borshoff (former) | MD and CEO | 2016 to 20 Oct 2025; adviser until end Nov 2025 | Five-decade uranium career; founder and former CEO of Paladin Energy | ASX, 20 Oct 2025 |
Board of Directors
| Name | Role | Notes | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
Chris Salisbury | Non-Executive Chair | Former Rio Tinto executive; former Chief Executive of Energy Resources of Australia and MD of Rössing Uranium. Temporary Executive Chair from Oct 2025 to Feb 2026, receiving a temporary exertion fee of A$6,875 per month. | ASX, 20 Oct 2025 |
Greg Field | Managing Director | Executive | ASX |
Gillian Swaby (former) | Executive Director | Joined 2005; resigned 2 Feb 2026; consulted to end Feb 2026 | ASX, 2 Feb 2026 |
Mervyn Greene (former) | Non-Executive Director | Retired 23 Nov 2023 after 17 years, including six as Chair | ASX, 24 Oct 2023 |
Directors' Remuneration
| Executive | Fixed remuneration | STI | LTI | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Greg Field | — | Eligible; paid 50% cash / 50% performance rights | Performance rights under the Deep Yellow Limited Awards Plan | ASX, 2 Dec 2025 (executive services agreement summary) |
Related-party payments | A$323,000 in the June 2026 quarter (directors' fees and associated payments) | — | — | Appendix 5B |
Major Shareholders
| Holder | Shares / stake | Date of latest notice | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
Washington H. Soul Pattinson (with Paradice Investment Management and Lexband/Macmillan Super Fund via a cooperation deed) | 114,619,544 shares, 11.778% | 18 Nov 2025 | FilingReader / ASX Form 603 |
Sprott Inc. | 91,538,980 shares (~9.4%, derived) | 19 Dec 2025 | NSX Form 604 notice |
VanEck Associates Corp. | 76,619,327 shares (~7.9%, derived), down from 78,730,546 in Feb 2026 | 19 Jun 2026 | NSX Form 604 notices |
State Street (SSgA entities) | — | Various | TipRanks announcement summaries |
Further change in substantial holding | — | 1 Jul 2026 | InvestSMART announcement list |
Competitive Landscape
Key Competitors
| Competitor | Listing | Key asset(s) | Stage | Relevance to Deep Yellow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Paladin Energy | ASX/TSX: PDN | Langer Heinrich (Namibia); Patterson Lake South (Canada, via Fission) | Producer | Same Erongo province; competes for capital, labour and offtake |
Bannerman Energy | ASX: BMN | Etango (Namibia) | Developer | Closest Namibian greenfield peer |
Swakop Uranium (CGN) | Private / state-owned (China) | Husab (Namibia) | Producer | Regional major |
Rössing Uranium (CNNC majority) | Private / state-owned | Rössing (Namibia) | Producer | Regional major; Salisbury formerly its MD |
Boss Energy | ASX: BOE | Honeymoon (South Australia) | Producer (ISR) | ASX uranium producer peer |
Lotus Resources | ASX: LOT | Kayelekera (Malawi) | Restart/producer | ASX peer |
Toro Energy | ASX: TOE | Wiluna (WA) | Developer | WA uranium peer to Mulga Rock |
Alligator Energy | ASX: AGE | Samphire (SA) and Alligator River tenure (NT) | Developer/explorer | NT province peer |
Cameco | NYSE/TSX: CCJ | Athabasca (Canada); historic Alligator River vendor | Major producer | Price setter; potential partner or offtaker |
Kazatomprom | LSE/AIX: KAP | Kazakhstan ISR | Largest producer | Global supply swing factor |
NexGen Energy | NYSE/TSX/ASX: NXE | Rook I / Arrow (Canada) | Developer | Competes for developer capital globally |
Denison Mines | NYSE/TSX: DNN | Wheeler River (Canada) | Developer | Competes for developer capital |
Peer Comparison FY2026
| Metric | Deep Yellow | Paladin | Bannerman | Boss Energy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | Nil (pre-production) | — | Nil | — |
Growth | Pipeline-driven | Ramp-up | Pipeline-driven | Ramp-up |
Flagship capex | US$474 million (Tumas, Apr 2025) | Restart completed | — | Built |
Jurisdiction | Namibia + Australia | Namibia + Canada | Namibia | Australia |
