VinFast Auto Ltd.

Income statement

Sources: FY2023–FY2025 from S1 (audited, U.S. GAAP; FY2023 as adjusted for VinES); FY2021–FY2022 from S12 aggregations of S3 (FY2022 restated for VinES). Operating loss and EBITDA for FY2021–FY2022 are AK derivations from line items.

FY2025 in USD (at VND25,121): revenue US$3,589.8m; gross loss US$1,628.5m; operating loss US$2,949.5m; net loss US$3,964.1m; net loss attributable US$3,956.2m; EPS ≈ −US$1.69 [S1; EPS AK].

Company-defined adjusted EBITDA for FY2025 was −US$2.38bn, against −US$1.80bn in FY2024 [S14]. This differs from the simple EBITDA above because of company adjustments.

Preliminary versus audited FY2025. The 16 Mar 2026 release showed:

• revenue of VND90,427.6bn;

• operating loss of VND71.60tn;

• net loss of VND97.24tn;

• gross margin of −42.5% [S4][S11].

The audited 20-F shows VND90,178.6bn, VND74,094.2bn, VND99,582.8bn and −45.4% respectively [S1]. The audit therefore added ≈VND2.3tn to the net loss.

Margins and growth (%) [AK]

Revenue CAGR (VND): FY2021–FY2025 = 54.0%; FY2023–FY2025 = 79.8% [AK].

Operating volumes

Sources: S2, S4, S22. The FY2022 EV figure is AK-derived from the reported +374% growth in 2023.

Quarterly trajectory

Sources: Q2 FY2025 revenue [S22]; Q4 FY2025 and FY2025 deliveries [S4]; Q1 FY2026 [S5]. Q1 FY2025 revenue is AK-derived from the reported 41.7% YoY growth in Q1 FY2026. Q3 FY2025 revenue is AK-derived from the reported 117.7% QoQ growth in Q4. Quarterly EV deliveries reconcile to the FY total of 196,919. Q4 FY2025 gross margin is per S5 (−46.4%). The Q4 call quoted −40% on a different basis [S4].

Q1 FY2026 key points [S5]:

• revenue US$920.7m (+41.7%);

• cost of sales US$1,598.1m;

• gross loss US$677.4m;

• gross margin −73.6%, depressed by a US$192m free-charging revenue deduction, revenue deferrals (≈12% of revenue) and net-realizable-value write-downs (≈14%);

• management-adjusted gross margin −22.5%;

• net loss margin −121.6% (net loss ≈US$1.12bn [S11]);

• EBITDA loss US$783m;

• EPS −US$0.48, against a consensus of −US$0.31.

Q2 FY2026 results are scheduled for 19 Oct 2026 [S8].

Balance sheet

Sources: FY2024–FY2025 from S1 (audited).

FY2025 in USD:

• total assets US$7,269.7m;

• cash US$292.7m;

• interest-bearing debt US$3,270.7m;

• total deficit −US$3,678.0m;

• working-capital deficit US$3,157.5m [S1].

Debt service due in 2026 was VND34,615.9bn (US$1,378.0m). By currency, debt was 46.7% USD, 47.9% VND, 1.7% IDR and 3.7% INR. Floating-rate debt was 64.9% (VND53,354.5bn) [S1].

Post-divestment balance sheet (pro forma, not yet reported). Approximately US$2.5bn of loans and US$831m of lease liabilities sat in VFTP and are expected to leave VinFast's consolidated balance sheet. That is ≈US$3.3bn [S10]. Of the ≈US$530m consideration, ≈US$400m was reported as earmarked for debt repayment and ≈US$125m for R&D, brand and operations [S10]. The first post-transaction balance sheet will be the 30 Jun 2026 balance sheet in the Q2 release on 19 Oct 2026.

Cash flow

Sources: FY2023–FY2025 from S1.

FY2025 in USD: OCF −US$1,769.9m; capex −US$914.7m (the company release cites US$922m at a different rate); FCF −US$2,684.6m [S1][S4].

Notable non-cash items, FY2025 [S1]:

• VND40,000bn of preference shares issued against related-party borrowings;

• VND23,400bn of Novatech licensing payables netted against Novatech receivables;

• VND7,308.7bn of interest payable converted to debt.

Commentary: trends, inflections and drivers

Revenue. Revenue doubled in both FY2023 and FY2025, with a 58% gain in FY2024. Growth came almost entirely from Vietnamese volume: EV deliveries rose from 34,855 to 196,919 in two years. Within that, low-priced VF 3/VF 5 and fleet sales (Green range, GSM) dominated. Mix effects therefore restrained ASP and gross margin even as volume surged. Revenue fell in FY2022 because ICE vehicles were discontinued before EV volume arrived.

Gross margin. The gross margin is improving but structurally negative. It moved from −93.7% (FY2022) to −49.2% (FY2023), then dipped to −57.4% in FY2024. The FY2024 dip was caused by the VND5,900bn free-charging deduction booked against revenue in Q4 2024 [S2]. FY2025 recovered to −45.4%. Inventory write-downs (VND7,076bn in FY2025), warranty provisions (VND17,875bn in FY2025, up from VND4,046bn) and impairments (VND8,742bn, including a US$235.6m charge on the North Carolina plant in Q4 2025 [S16]) remain heavy. Q1 FY2026 deteriorated to −73.6% because of accounting for the extended free-charging programme.

Operating expenses. R&D fell from VND21.2tn (FY2022) to VND9.9tn (FY2025). This reflects completion of the first-generation platforms and, from August 2025, the transfer of R&D assets to Novatech with an IP lease-back. The lease-back converts capitalized and expensed R&D into licensing costs [S11]. Administrative expense rose 60% in FY2025 to VND14.3tn, which merits scrutiny in the 20-F notes.

Below the line. Finance costs reached VND22.3tn in FY2025, equal to 25% of revenue. Losses on fair-value instruments (VND3.0tn) add further. Interest is now the second-largest drain after the gross loss.

Cash and funding. VinFast burned US$2.7bn of free cash in FY2025. It was funded by US$2.5bn of deemed owner contributions (founder grants, Novatech proceeds) and net borrowings. Between 2017 and 31 Dec 2025, Vingroup, its affiliates and external lenders deployed approximately US$17.0bn [S1].

Inflection to watch. Q2 FY2026 will show the first effects of the VFTP deconsolidation. These are expected to be:

• lower debt and lease liabilities;

• a gain or loss on disposal;

• removal of plant depreciation;

• a new contract-manufacturing cost line;

• higher corporate income tax at VFTP, which loses VinFast's 10% preferential rate and moves to the standard 20% rate [S10] — a cost likely to be passed through in transfer pricing.

Management guidance (FY2026):

• ≥300,000 EV deliveries;

• two-wheelers ≥2.5× FY2025;

• capex of US$300–400m per quarter;

• EBITDA breakeven targeted for 2027;

• North Carolina SOP in 2028 [S4][S5][S9][S16].

Delivery-tracking check. H1 FY2026 EV deliveries were 128,662, so H2 requires ≈171,000 — about 33% more per quarter than Q2's 70,085 [AK]. Vietnam alone delivered 41,942 units in July–August 2026 [S8]. The target therefore requires Q4 seasonality comparable to Q4 FY2025 (86,557) and contributions from the VF 2 ramp, the new VF 8 and international markets. It is achievable but stretching.

Consensus expectations. Consensus expects continued large losses per share (−US$0.33 for Q2) and revenue of ≈US$1.15–1.25bn per quarter, implying FY2026 revenue growth of roughly 30–40% [S19, AK]. Medium-term consensus models built on Simply Wall St data assume ≈40%+ annual revenue growth and eventual positive margins [S19]; we regard these as low-conviction given thin coverage.

Bull case

1. Volume compounding at scale. Deliveries doubled in FY2025 and grew 78% in H1 FY2026. Gross margin improved from −93.7% to −45.4% in three years. The management-adjusted Q1 FY2026 gross margin of −22.5% suggests underlying cost progress beneath accounting noise [S1][S5][S8].

2. Balance-sheet repair via the asset-light pivot. About US$3.3bn of debt and leases deconsolidated, capex obligations shifted to VFTP, and Novatech plus the founder grants contributed ≈US$2.7bn of non-debt funding in 2024–25 [S1][S10].

3. Emerging-Asia optionality. #1 BEV brand in the Philippines, #4 in India and #8 in Indonesia, with local plants. GSM's planned purchase of ≈1m EVs and 4m e-scooters gives a demand floor [S5][S9].

Bear case

1. Uneconomic core business. VinFast spent VND1.45 in cost of sales for each VND1 of revenue in FY2025. Free cash burn was US$2.7bn, and net losses keep rising in absolute terms (VND60tn → VND77tn → VND100tn) [S1].

2. Related-party opacity. VFTP was sold at book value against a far lower independent valuation, to a founder-linked group that now builds VinFast's Vietnamese vehicles. Combined with 27% related-party EV deliveries, material weaknesses and family succession, assessing arm's-length economics is difficult [S1][S10][S9].

3. Funding cliff and dilution. The founder grant runs to end-2026 and the Vingroup loan window to Nov 2026. Going-concern doubt persists, and the float is ≈2% with a 130m-share resale registration. Any interruption in ecosystem support is existential [S1].

Key catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)

Analyst verdict

VinFast is best understood as a founder-financed national industrial project with a Nasdaq quote attached, not as a stand-alone automaker.

Operating record. It has proven that it can sell cars at scale in Vietnam: about 197,000 EVs in 2025, roughly 36% of the domestic market, and a credible beach-head in the Philippines, India and Indonesia.

Economics. It has not proven that it can do so profitably. Each unit still destroys value at the gross line. Finance costs alone consumed a quarter of FY2025 revenue. The audited statements carry a going-concern warning and two material weaknesses.

Restructuring. The mid-2026 asset-light restructuring is the decisive pivot. Optically it removes about US$3.3bn of debt and leases and most future capex. Economically it relocates those burdens to a founder-linked manufacturer whose pricing to VinFast will determine whether the reported margin improvement is real or merely reallocated. The October 2026 Q2 release, the first with the new structure, is therefore the single most important data point for the thesis.

Governance. With about 98% founder-affiliated ownership, a related-party-heavy transaction history and the founder's 33-year-old son now holding both the Chair and CEO roles, minority investors have limited protection. Valuation is untethered from fundamentals: EV/Sales is roughly 3.4–3.7x for a company with deeply negative gross margins, against Rivian at positive gross margin.

Balance of the case. The bull case is coherent: volume momentum, emerging-Asia positioning, the GSM demand floor and Vuong's demonstrated willingness to fund. It rests, however, on the continued capacity and intent of the Vuong ecosystem rather than on VinFast's own cash generation.

Stance. We view VFS as a high-risk, event-driven security. Positioning should be contingent on three tests:

1. post-divestment gross-margin disclosure showing sustained improvement excluding programme effects;

2. extension of founder and Vingroup funding beyond 2026;

3. evidence that international volumes can scale without related-party offtake.

Absent these, the default expectation is continued dilution-funded losses.

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Prepared from public sources available as of 13 Oct 2026.