Westgold Resources Ltd

All figures A$M unless stated. FY22–FY25 statutory figures come from audited annual reports and Appendix 4E documents; FY26 comes from the FY26 Financial Results Summary and Appendix 4E (28 Aug 2026). "Underlying" or "adjusted" figures are company non-IFRS measures that exclude items such as merger costs, stamp duty and losses on asset sales.

Income statement

Notes and sources:

• FY22: FY22 Annual Report (consolidated statement; revenue A$647,576,618; impairment A$175,535,410; NPAT −A$111,119,291; EPS −25.32c). EBITDA of A$209.2M is the company's figure excluding significant items (FY22 results release).

• FY23: Revenue A$654.4M (aggregator, consistent with Appendix 4E); NPAT A$10,003,484 (FY23 Appendix 4E). Gross profit A$74.8M from the aggregator; FY23 EBITDA and EPS are n/d from primary documents reviewed.

• FY24: FY25 Annual Report comparatives (revenue A$716.5M, cost of sales A$559.5M, gross profit A$157.0M, PBT A$137.0M, tax A$41.7M, NPAT A$95.2M, EPS 20.11c/19.79c). Adjusted EBITDA A$271M and EBIT A$134M per FY25 Operating and Financial Review. DPS 2.25c per FY25 release comparative.

• FY25: FY25 Annual Report and Financial Results (28 Aug 2025). Adjusted EBITDA A$498M excludes stamp duty and Karora acquisition costs (A$84.5M acquisition costs in the income statement). Underlying NPAT of A$87M is the FY25 comparative shown in the FY26 release.

• FY26: Underlying-to-statutory reconciliation (FY26 Financial Results Summary): underlying EBITDA A$1,104M, less A$119M loss on asset sales, A$5M loss on assets held for sale and A$1M exploration write-off, plus A$3M impairment reversal of an associate = statutory EBITDA A$982M; statutory EBIT A$651M; statutory NPBT A$643M; tax effect of adjustments +A$85M; statutory NPAT A$443.1M. The FY26 tax line (−A$200M) is calc. as NPBT less NPAT. FY26 statutory EPS is n/d in the summary; Yahoo Finance shows trailing EPS of A$0.47, consistent with A$443M over roughly 943M weighted shares.

Margin analysis

The company reported its FY25 adjusted EBITDA margin as 36% in the FY25 release and 37% in the FY26 release comparative; the calc. is 36.6%. FY26 underlying EBITDA margin reported as 45%.

Revenue CAGR FY22–FY26 (calc.): 39.3% per year (A$647.6M to A$2,441M over four years). Over FY21–FY26 (FY21 revenue A$571.2M) the five-year CAGR is 33.7% (calc.).

Production and unit cost (operating drivers)

Sources: FY22 Results presentation; FY23 June quarter update; FY25 Annual Report; June 2026 Quarterly. FY26 AISC excludes OPA ounces; H1 FY26 AISC including OPA was A$3,225/oz against A$2,871/oz excluding it.

Balance sheet

Notes:

• FY22 cash A$182.7M (FY22 Annual Report); FY22 cash, bullion and liquids A$190M and FY23 A$192M (FNN, 5 Jul 2023).

• FY24 treasury of ~A$264M is implied from the FY25 release statement that treasury rose 38% to A$364M (calc.).

• FY24 and FY25 total assets are segment totals from FY25 Note 31. FY25 segment liabilities total A$512.1M, but this excludes unallocated balances such as deferred tax; the reported FY25 net assets of A$1,969M is the reliable equity figure.

• FY25 debt of ~A$50M is inferred from the FY26 disclosure that Westgold repaid A$50M of outstanding debt during FY26. Short/long-term split n/d. At FY26 the company is debt-free.

• FY26 NTA per share A$2.60 (Appendix 4E). Using ~940M shares, this implies roughly A$2.44 billion of net tangible assets (calc., includes right-of-use assets).

• Goodwill and intangibles: n/d. Mining companies typically carry acquired value in mine properties rather than goodwill.

• Working capital: n/d for FY26.

Cash flow

Other FY26 cash items: A$76M stamp duty on the Karora acquisition, A$50M of debt repaid, non-sustaining capex of A$341M (above guidance because growth projects were accelerated, per June 2026 Quarterly), and A$42M of exploration and resource definition.

Ratios

Notes: Net debt/EBITDA is negative because Westgold holds net cash; it is calc. as (debt − treasury) / underlying EBITDA. Simply Wall St reports a trailing ROE of 18.1% and net margin of 18.2%, consistent with FY26 statutory earnings on average equity. ROIC, current ratio, interest coverage and cash conversion cycle are n/d for FY26 pending the full annual report; interest coverage is not meaningful given nil debt and FY25 finance costs of only A$12.5M.

Trend commentary

FY22 (trough). Record ounces did not translate into profit because cost inflation peaked (management cited an 82% rise in diesel prices), open pits were closed and Big Bell's carrying value was written down. The A$175.5M impairment wiped out equity value but reset the asset base.

FY23 (reset). Revenue was flat at A$654M on lower production (257koz) while hedges capped price upside. H1 FY23 was loss-making (−A$11.1M NPAT), but a second-half cost reduction delivered a small full-year profit of A$10.0M. The safety record improved markedly, with TRIFR down 63%.

FY24 (unhedged leverage). Despite lower production (227koz), revenue rose 9.5% once the last hedges rolled off, and NPAT reached A$95.2M with EPS of 20.1c. This credibility underpinned the scrip value used to buy Karora.

FY25 (scale, noisy earnings). Revenue nearly doubled to A$1,360M on 326koz, but A$84.5M of acquisition costs, a A$22.3M royalty fair-value charge, higher D&A from purchase-price accounting and a 69% effective tax rate cut NPAT to A$34.8M. EBITDA (A$498M) is the cleaner indicator of what the enlarged business earned.

FY26 (inflection). Production up 19% and realised prices up sharply produced A$1,104M underlying EBITDA (45% margin), A$964M OCF and A$602M FCF. Statutory profit was depressed by A$124M of losses on non-core sales (mostly Mt Henry–Selene, where the book value carried from the Karora acquisition exceeded the sale price). The balance sheet moved from small net debt to A$939M of net treasury. The key future driver is cost: FY27 AISC guidance of A$2,980–3,380/oz is 5–19% above FY26 actual, reflecting inflation, royalties, more open-pit mining and lower Southern Goldfields grades.

Management guidance summary

Consensus expectations

Consensus EPS of about A$0.62 for FY27 (Stockopedia, August 2026) implies earnings growth of roughly 30% over FY26 statutory EPS of about A$0.47 (calc.). That forecast predates the September cost guidance and the subsequent fall in the share price and gold price, so downward revisions are possible. The consensus price target of A$7.26 implies about 43% upside from A$5.07 (calc.).

Bull case

1. Valuation dislocation. At about 3.5x EV/FY26 underlying EBITDA (calc.) and roughly 11x trailing earnings, with net cash of about 20% of market capitalisation, the market prices Westgold as if FY26 margins were transitory. Even at FY27's higher AISC midpoint (A$3,180/oz), a A$6,000/oz gold price leaves a margin above A$2,800/oz on more than 400koz.

2. High-return, low-capital growth. CXP (A$22M, ~10-month payback), MXP (~A$100M, ~9 months) and HXP (A$145M) add about 15koz, a substantial Meekatharra uplift and about 60koz respectively, all at brownfields sites. Reserves grew 41% at A$27/oz, supporting a credible path to about 500koz.

3. Fletcher is a free option. A 1.1Moz reserve excluded from the 3YO, with a conceptual ~140kozpa contribution, offers a route to more than 600kozpa that is not in guidance or, arguably, in the share price.

Bear case

1. Cost creep erodes the thesis. FY27 AISC guidance rose 5–19% over FY26 actual, and management itself warned inflation would become more visible. If FY29 AISC targets slip as they did between successive outlooks, the margin expansion story weakens.

2. Execution overload. Three mill expansions, the Beta Hunt ventilation-dependent ramp-up, accelerated underground development and a Big Bell reserve cut all coincide. Westgold missed FY25 production guidance and overspent FY26 non-sustaining capex guidance.

3. Price-taker in a consolidating sector. Unhedged exposure means a gold price correction flows directly to earnings. Meanwhile, Genesis–Vault creates a larger peer that may attract capital ahead of Westgold.

Catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)

Concluding analyst verdict

Westgold enters FY27 as a fundamentally different company from the one that wrote down A$175M in FY22. Under Wayne Bramwell, it has rebuilt operating discipline, doubled its scale through the Karora merger without a capital raising, sold every asset that did not fit its plan, and converted a speculative discovery at Fletcher into a 1.1Moz reserve within two years. FY26 was the payoff: record production of 387koz, A$1.1 billion of underlying EBITDA, A$602M of free cash flow and a A$939M debt-free treasury. On almost any balance-sheet or cash-flow measure, Westgold is now one of the strongest mid-tier producers on the ASX.

The market's response to the September outlook explains why the shares nonetheless trade roughly 38% below their high. Investors had extrapolated FY26 margins, and the guidance showed unit costs rising before falling, with the margin recovery pushed out to FY29 and dependent on simultaneous delivery of three mill expansions and a Beta Hunt ramp-up. Westgold's guidance record is solid but imperfect, with a production miss in FY25 and a capex overrun in FY26.

At about 3.5x EV to trailing underlying EBITDA (calc.), the valuation discounts much of the cost risk, while the balance sheet funds the entire growth plan and a rising capital return. Fletcher and the retained equity stakes provide value that is not in the base case. The thesis depends on three things that are easy to check each quarter: AISC tracking toward the lower half of A$2,980–3,380/oz, Beta Hunt reaching 2.0Mtpa by the end of calendar 2026, and the Cue expansion commissioning on time. Failure on two of those three would weaken the case materially. Overall: constructive, with execution as the key risk.