Woodside Energy Group Limited

Income statement

Sources: FY2025 and FY2024 from FY2025 results release (24 Feb 2026) and associated press coverage; FY2021–FY2023 from respective Annual Reports (prior filings; re-verify). EPS FY2023–FY2025 derived as NPAT ÷ ~1,899m shares and flagged as approximate. FY2024 unit cost derived from the 4% reduction to $7.8/boe reported for FY2025. Net margins derived. Operating income and pre-tax income: n/d in this research (Woodside reports "profit before tax" in its 20-F; re-verify).

Revenue CAGR (FY2021–FY2025): approx. 16.9% (derived: (12,984/6,962)^(1/4) − 1). This headline CAGR is flattered by the June 2022 merger, which roughly doubled production; on an organic basis revenue has declined since the FY2022 commodity-price peak.

Commentary. The five-year arc has three phases. FY2021→FY2022 was transformational: the BHP Petroleum merger (seven months consolidated) and the post-Ukraine-invasion energy price spike lifted revenue 142% and NPAT to a record $6.5bn. FY2023 saw revenue fall 17% on lower realised prices and NPAT collapse to $1.66bn because of impairments and one-offs (underlying NPAT $3.3bn). FY2024–FY2025 shows a business with stable EBITDA (~$9.3bn) as volume growth — notably Sangomar from June 2024 and record 198.8 MMboe in FY2025 — offset falling realised prices ($63.4/boe to $60.2/boe). The FY2025 NPAT decline of 24% versus a much smaller 8% underlying decline reflects non-recurring items in FY2024 (asset sale gains). Cost discipline is evident: unit production cost fell 4% to $7.8/boe in FY2025.

Half-year 2026 performance (latest reported)

Sources: Half-Year Report 2026 (ASX, 25 Aug 2026); H1 2025 report; Investing.com summary of H1 2026 slides; FNArena note on H1 2025 (EBITDA and OCF). H1 2025 realised price derived as $74 less the $12 increase disclosed. H1 2025 interim dividend 53c (prior filing; re-verify).

H1 2026 combined a 13% revenue increase with a 13% production decline. The volume decline reflected the planned major Pluto turnaround in May 2026 (to tie in Scarborough) and cyclone impacts; the price increase reflected elevated commodity prices amid geopolitical supply disruption. Reported NPAT rose 27% to $1.67bn.

Balance sheet

Sources: FY2025 results (gearing 18.2%, liquidity $9.3bn). Mid-year data point: FNArena reported net debt of ~$8.7bn and gearing of 19.5% at 30 June 2025. Woodside's stated gearing target range is 15–25% (prior disclosure; re-verify).

Commentary. Gearing has risen from a low base post-merger as Woodside funds Scarborough, Trion, Louisiana LNG and Beaumont concurrently, yet remains within the target range. The balance sheet has been supported by sell-downs (Scarborough to JERA and LNG Japan; Louisiana LNG to Stonepeak and Williams) and capital-market access (oversubscribed US$3.5bn bond issue in 2025).

Cash flow: notes and sources

Sources: FY2025 results (FCF $1.9bn; full-year dividend value $2.1bn). Woodside has returned approximately $11bn in dividends since merger completion (June 2022) per FY2025 results. No buyback programme has been active in the period reviewed (re-verify).

Ratios

Payout ratio: FY2025 stated at 80% (top of the 50–80% range); FY2023 and FY2024 at 80% (prior disclosures; re-verify). Cash conversion cycle is not a meaningful metric for this business model and is not disclosed.

Management guidance

Consensus growth expectations: not publicly disclosed in this research.

Bull case

1. Scarborough inflection: first cargo in Q4 2026 adds a long-life, low-CO2 LNG stream and ends the heaviest phase of Australian capex, enabling FCF to scale materially from the $1.9bn of FY2025.

2. Proven execution and cost discipline: Sangomar delivered on time with ~99% reliability, and unit costs fell to $7.8/boe — supporting credibility for Trion and Louisiana LNG.

3. Price leverage with hedging floor: H1 2026 realised prices of $74/boe show upside sensitivity, while the 80% payout converts it to dividends.

Bear case

1. Execution and disruption risk: the Greenpeace boarding on 17–18 October 2026 paused pre-commissioning at a critical moment; any slip in first LNG would hit 2027 volumes.

2. Reserve replacement: proved reserves fell to 1,882.1 MMboe and 8.9-year life; growth depends on contested projects (Browse) and capital-heavy US LNG.

3. New-energy disappointment: Beaumont is running below capacity with lower-carbon output delayed to 2027, weakening the transition narrative.

Catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)

• Q3 2026 report (21 Oct 2026) and status of Scarborough after the protest

• Capital Markets Day (5 Nov 2026): capital allocation framework, targets under Westcott

• First Scarborough LNG cargo (Q4 2026)

• Calypso sale completion (by end-2026)

• FY2026 results (Feb 2027): dividend, 2027 guidance, reserves update

• Louisiana LNG progress and possible further sell-downs/offtake

• Beaumont feedstock resolution

• Browse approvals and WA domestic gas policy

Analyst verdict

Woodside enters late 2026 at the hinge between two distinct corporate phases. For four years after the 2022 BHP Petroleum merger it has been a company asking shareholders to fund concurrent megaprojects while trusting management's execution — and on the evidence, that trust has largely been rewarded. Sangomar has outperformed, unit costs have fallen, EBITDA has held near $9.3bn through a softer price environment, and the dividend has been maintained at the top of the payout range, returning around $11bn since the merger. Gearing of roughly 18% at end-2025 is within target despite peak capital intensity.

The next twelve months should, if delivered, convert that narrative into hard cash flow. Scarborough is 98% complete and the critical path to first LNG now runs through commissioning rather than construction. The immediate threat is not engineering but social licence: the Greenpeace occupation of the platform underlines that Woodside's Australian growth carries a protest and litigation premium that peers operating elsewhere do not bear. A short pause is noise; a multi-week delay pushing first cargo into 2027 would be a genuine, if recoverable, setback.

Beyond Scarborough, the investment case is more contingent. Louisiana LNG is well-funded thanks to Stonepeak and Williams, but its returns depend on 2029-onward LNG pricing in a market facing record supply additions. Beaumont is underperforming. Proved reserves are falling, and Browse — the most obvious long-term backfill — is politically contested.

Our synthesis: Woodside is a high-quality, cash-returning LNG operator approaching a free-cash-flow inflection, with execution credibility earned through Sangomar and Scarborough. The key tests are near-term: first Scarborough LNG, a credible capital-discipline framework at the 5 November Capital Markets Day under its new CEO, and evidence that portfolio pruning (Calypso) signals sharper returns focus rather than retrenchment. Delivery on these would support a constructive view; slippage would expose the reserve-life and policy risks that remain the stock's structural discount.

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Principal sources

• Woodside, Full-Year 2025 Results release and Annual Report 2025 (ASX, 24 Feb 2026)

• Woodside, 2025 Full-Year Results news story, woodside.com

• Woodside, Half-Year Report for period ended 30 June 2026 (ASX, 25 Aug 2026) and H1 2026 results briefing presentation/transcript

• Woodside ASX announcement / SEC Form 6-K, "Liz Westcott Appointed Woodside CEO" (18 Mar 2026)

• Woodside / Business Wire, "Woodside Rationalises Global Portfolio With Calypso Divestment" (6 Aug 2026)

• Woodside / ASX, "Woodside to Divest Greater Angostura Assets to Perenco" (28 Mar 2025)

• Reuters via Mining Weekly; Rigzone; World Oil; Oil & Gas Journal; Bloomberg (CEO appointment, Mar 2026)

• Bloomberg; Investing.com; Energy Connects (Scarborough protest pause, 18 Oct 2026)

• ABC News analysis on Browse (14 Oct 2026)

• Petroleum Australia; Offshore Technology; Energy-pedia; KeyFacts Energy; MarketBeat (FY2025 results coverage)

• Investing.com and Discovery Alert (H1 2026 coverage); FNArena (H1 2025 broker notes)

• P&GJ (Q4 2025 project status); Natural Gas World and S&P Global (Scarborough FID and approvals history)