ams-OSRAM AG (formerly ams AG)

Data sources and caveats

FY2021–FY2024 income statement data are compiled from a financial-data aggregator (TipRanks, reproducing reported IFRS figures). They are consistent with company-reported revenue for FY2023 (EUR 3.59 bn) and FY2024 (EUR 3.43 bn). FY2025 figures are from the company's Q4/FY2025 release and call materials (Feb 2026), plus the dpa report for the net loss. Adjusted EBITDA for FY2024 is derived from the company's statement that the FY2025 adjusted margin of 18.3% was 1.5 percentage points higher year on year. Figures for FY2021–FY2022 include businesses later classified as discontinued and are not restated for later divestments.

Income statement

FY2024 adjusted EBITDA is derived as 3,428 × 16.8%; FY2025 is derived as 3,323 × 18.3%.

Margins (%)

Revenue CAGR FY2021–FY2025: -9.9% per year (5,040 to 3,323), driven predominantly by divestments (Digital Systems, Clay Paky, Fluence, AMLS), the phase-out of non-core consumer semiconductor products by December 2024, and FX (the weaker USD cost approx. EUR 55 m of revenue in FY2025). On a like-for-like basis, the semiconductor core grew +7% in FY2025.

Per-share data

The FY2025 net loss of EUR 129 m on approx. 99–100 m shares implies roughly EUR -1.3 per share, but this figure is not company-reported. Pre-2024 EPS figures in aggregator databases are not consistently restated for the 2023 rights issue and the 2024 10:1 consolidation, so they are not presented. Dividends per share: nil for FY2021–FY2025; no dividend has been paid since the OSRAM acquisition.

Quarterly bridge — recent eight quarters

Derivations and caveats:

• Q3 2025 revenue (854) is derived as FY 3,323 minus Q1, Q2 and Q4.

• Q2 2025 adjusted EBITDA (146) is derived as 775 × 18.8%; Q4 2025 (161) as 874 × 18.4%.

• Q4 2025 FCF (143) is derived from the FY total of 144 less the Q1–Q3 sum of 1, and excludes the one-off pension-related cash-in.

• Q2 2026 IFRS EBITDA of EUR 115 m (14.3% margin) beat consensus of EUR 88 m (Placera/Infront).

• Q2 2026 EPS was EUR -1.22.

• Adjusted net result was EUR +27 m in Q3 2025 and EUR -72 m in Q1 2026.

Balance sheet

Net debt excludes the Malaysian sale-and-leaseback liabilities (EUR 429 m equivalent at end-Q1 2025; net debt including SLB was approx. EUR 1.9 bn at that date). Net leverage was 2.0x at Q1 2025 against a 4.0x covenant, and pro-forma 2.5x after the Infineon deal per the company's own definition (Feb 2026; the definitions differ, as noted below).

Cash flow

The company defines FCF as operating cash flow including net interest paid, minus capex after grants, plus divestment proceeds. Capex is guided at or below 8% of revenue: in Q2 2026 capex was approx. 8% of revenue, versus "well below 8%" in FY2025. There were no buybacks and no dividends during FY2021–FY2025.

Ratios

Because net income was negative in every year from FY2021 to FY2025, ROE, ROA and ROIC were negative throughout and are not meaningful as valuation anchors. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA was approx. 2.5x at FY2025 (1,518 / 608, derived). Management's covenant-style leverage ratio was 2.0x at Q1 2025. The difference reflects definitional adjustments. Interest burden is the critical ratio. Management targets annual interest below EUR 100 m after deleveraging, and the 2032 refinancing cut annual interest by approx. EUR 40 m from 2027. Current ratio, cash conversion cycle and asset turnover were not computed due to missing balance-sheet detail.

Commentary

Revenue. The FY2021–FY2025 decline reflects portfolio exits rather than franchise erosion. The semiconductor core has grown in line with management's "semiconductor growth model" in 2025 and H1 2026: +13% like-for-like at constant FX in Q2 2026.

Profitability. Profitability inflected in 2024–2025 as "Re-establish the Base" savings were delivered a year early. Adjusted EBITDA margin rose from approx. 16.8% in FY2024 to 18.3% in FY2025. 2026 is a transition year in which stranded costs, deconsolidations, higher precious-metal (gold) input costs and FX compress margins. Q1 2026 headwinds were approx. EUR 50 m per the CFO.

Net result. Below the EBITDA line, the group remains loss-making. The causes are heavy depreciation from the Kulim and Regensburg investment cycle, transformation costs, purchase-price amortisation from OSRAM, and interest costs on 10.5–12.25% coupons. Management guides a positive FY2026 net result in the "high double-digit million euro" range, supported by divestment gains (Q2 2026 fixed-income call). Note the contrast with February 2026 commentary that excluded an unadjusted profit for FY2026; the upgrade reflects the Infineon gain.

Cash. FY2026 FCF is guided above EUR 300 m including divestment proceeds. Management sees "a path to positive FCF in 2027" including net interest and excluding divestments. That is the key inflection to monitor.

Management guidance (4 Aug 2026)

Bull case

1. Deleveraging changes the equity story. EUR 570 m from Infineon, EUR 114 m from Ushio and EUR 40 m from indie, combined with the 7.25% refinancing of 12.25% and 10.5% paper, cut interest by at least EUR 40 m per year from 2027. With "Simplify" adding EUR 200 m of run-rate savings by FY2028, the FY2027 positive-FCF commitment looks achievable, and equity value accretes quickly at approx. 5x EV/EBITDA.

2. The core franchise is growing. Semiconductor core growth of 7% (FY2025) and 13% (Q2 2026, constant FX), alongside more than EUR 5 bn in annual design wins and number-one LED share, supports the mid-to-high single-digit CAGR target.

3. Asymmetric optionality. AI interconnect (development agreement, OCP SRMO, VCSEL and microLED arrays) and AR light engines could re-rate the group toward photonics multiples. The +23% reaction to the September 2026 VCSEL launch shows the market's appetite.

Bear case

1. Earnings quality remains poor. IFRS losses persisted in FY2021–FY2025 and Q2 2026 (EUR -121 m). The positive FY2026 net result depends on one-off divestment gains, and interim FCF was EUR -119 m in Q2 2026.

2. Shrinking scale and structural decline. Revenue fell from EUR 5.0 bn (FY2021) to EUR 3.3 bn (FY2025) and is falling further in FY2026. L&S is in secular decline, and the remaining CSA business depends on a few consumer customers.

3. New-market timelines are long and unproven. No AI interconnect revenue is contracted, the SRMO specification is targeted only for 2027, and the 2024 microLED cancellation shows AR volumes can vanish. Meanwhile, strong incumbents (Coherent, Lumentum, Broadcom) dominate optical interconnects.

Catalysts and monitorables (next 12 months)

Analyst verdict

ams-OSRAM enters late 2026 materially de-risked compared with twelve months earlier, but still not a self-evidently investable compounder. The positives are concrete and verifiable. Management has executed more than EUR 700 m of disposals in under a year, including the EUR 570 m Infineon sale that closed on 1 July. It has refinanced its most punitive 12.25% dollar debt with euro paper at 7.25%. It delivered the "Re-establish the Base" savings a year early. And it has kept the semiconductor core growing at high single to low double digits like-for-like while defending a global number-one LED position. The design-win pipeline of more than EUR 5 bn per year provides unusually good multi-year visibility for an optoelectronics supplier.

Against this, the income statement remains loss-making on an IFRS basis. Free cash flow is still lumpy, and FY2026 FCF depends on divestment proceeds. The group is also shrinking into a narrower portfolio in which a declining lamps business still contributes roughly a third of revenue and a disproportionate share of margin. The 2030 targets, in particular at least 25% semiconductor EBITDA margins, require both "Simplify" savings and successful entry into markets where ams OSRAM has no contracted revenue yet: AI interconnects and AR glasses.

At roughly CHF 18 per share, about 1x EV/Sales and about 5x trailing adjusted EBITDA, the market is pricing in a credible turnaround but only a partial option value for Digital Photonics. The September 2026 spike and the October sell-off illustrate high narrative sensitivity. Our synthesis is a balanced, catalyst-driven stance. The equity case strengthens decisively if the 13 November Q3 print and the FY2026 results confirm the FY2027 positive-FCF path, and if a named AI-photonics or AR customer converts development work into a supply agreement. Until then, deleveraging is the dominant, verifiable driver, and technology optionality should be treated as upside rather than base case.

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Principal sources consulted

ams OSRAM press releases and ad hoc announcements (3 Feb, 6 May, 11 May, 19 May, 10 Jun, 1 Jul, 30 Jul, 4 Aug, 13 Oct 2026); Q4/FY2025, Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 call scripts and presentations; Annual Report 2025 management report; Senior Notes 2029 tender offer memorandum (30 Sep 2026); Linklaters deal note (May 2026); Semiconductor Today, Compound Semiconductor, eeNews Europe, LEDinside, microled-info.com; dpa/Yahoo Finance (Feb 2026); AWP/Vermögenszentrum; Börsen-Zeitung; boerse-express.com; ad-hoc-news.de market data (Sep–Oct 2026; AI-generated market reports used only for price points); TipRanks income-statement aggregator (FY2021–FY2024); Quartr event summaries; Placera/Infront consensus comparison (Q2 2026).