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ELI Lilly and Company

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Ticker: LLY.SW

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ELI Lilly and Company - Healthcare showcase

Year Founded & Workforce

1876

50,000 Employees

Industry

Healthcare
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ELI Lilly and Company Overview

Eli Lilly is a research-based, vertically integrated pharmaceutical manufacturer that discovers, develops, manufactures and markets prescription medicines in a single reported business segment: human pharmaceutical products. Its commercial identity has been transformed since 2022 by the incretin class: tirzepatide, a dual GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist, and from April 2026 orforglipron, an orally bioavailable non-peptide GLP-1 agonist. These assets have made Lilly the dominant player in the fastest-growing therapeutic category in pharmaceutical history, and have funded a step-change in capital deployment — more than $50 billion of announced U.S. manufacturing investment since 2020, $13.3 billion of FY2025 R&D spend, and more than a dozen acquisitions in 2026 alone. Around that core the company sustains four other franchises — oncology, immunology, neuroscience and legacy diabetes — and a direct-to-patient platform, LillyDirect. Lilly's central strategic bet is that obesity becomes a chronic-care category of unprecedented scale, and that it can own the supply, the pricing architecture and the next three generations of molecules within it.

Eli Lilly and Company is, as of September 2026, the largest pharmaceutical company in the world by market capitalisation and the fastest-growing large-cap drug manufacturer by revenue. The company crossed the $1 trillion market-capitalisation threshold during 2025 — the first biopharmaceutical company ever to do so — on the strength of a single molecule, tirzepatide, commercialised under two brands (Mounjaro for type 2 diabetes and Zepbound for obesity and obstructive sleep apnoea) that together generated $36.5 billion of revenue in FY2025. In April 2026 the company added the first small-molecule oral GLP-1 receptor agonist approved for obesity, Foundayo (orforglipron), to that franchise.


The company's own characterisation

Lilly describes itself in the FY2025 Form 10-K as a company that discovers, develops, manufactures and markets products in a single business segment — human pharmaceutical products — and states that most of the products it sells today were discovered or developed by its own scientists, with long-term success depending on the ability to continually discover or acquire, develop and commercialise innovative medicines. It manufactures and distributes through facilities in the United States (including Puerto Rico) and in Europe and Asia, and sells in approximately 105 countries.

In its standard corporate boilerplate (Q2 2026 earnings release) Lilly positions itself as "a medicine company turning science into healing," with a 150-year history and scientific focus areas described as redefining diabetes care; treating obesity and curtailing its long-term complications; advancing the fight against Alzheimer's disease; addressing immune system disorders; and transforming difficult-to-treat cancers into manageable diseases.

Independent characterisation

Lilly is best understood today as three overlapping businesses operating under one P&L:

(a) The incretin platform (roughly 74% of FY2025 revenue). Tirzepatide (Mounjaro + Zepbound) alone contributed $36.5 billion in FY2025, growing to a first-half 2026 run-rate of $27.7 billion across the two brands. Adding orforglipron (Foundayo, $98 million in its first partial quarter), legacy insulins, Trulicity and the Boehringer-partnered SGLT2/DPP-4 products, cardiometabolic health accounted for approximately $48.2 billion of FY2025 revenue. This is a volume business with unusually strong operating leverage: gross margin on the incretin portfolio has driven consolidated gross margin from 75.4% in FY2021 to 86.3% (non-GAAP) in Q2 2026, even as realised prices fell 13% year-on-year in that quarter.

(b) The diversified specialty portfolio (roughly 24% of FY2025 revenue). Oncology ($9.4 billion), immunology ($5.2 billion) and neuroscience ($1.4 billion) constitute a conventional branded-pharma business with a normal mix of growth assets (Jaypirca, Ebglyss, Omvoh, Kisunla, Inluriyo) and mature or declining ones (Cyramza, Emgality, Taltz, Olumiant). Management has explicitly flagged this cluster as its diversification hedge: key-product revenue in immunology, oncology and neuroscience grew 121% year-on-year in Q2 2026.

(c) A capital-deployment engine. With $16.8 billion of FY2025 operating cash flow rising to a $28.1 billion trailing-twelve-month figure at June 2026, Lilly has become one of the most acquisitive companies in the sector — at least thirteen acquisitions announced in 2026 through August — and the largest single builder of pharmaceutical manufacturing capacity in U.S. history.

Revenue model and value-chain position

Lilly's revenue is overwhelmingly product revenue. Approximately 93.5% of FY2025 revenue was product sales, with the balance (approximately $4.2 billion) collaboration and other revenue, principally from the Boehringer Ingelheim diabetes alliance, the Incyte relationship on Olumiant, royalty streams and sales-based milestones. There is no subscription revenue; "service" revenue is immaterial. The company occupies an unusually deep position in its value chain for a modern large-cap pharma: it manufactures its own active pharmaceutical ingredients, fills and finishes its own injectable devices, and, since January 2024, sells directly to patients through LillyDirect, bypassing parts of the traditional wholesaler-pharmacy-PBM chain for self-pay volumes.

Customer types and end-markets. The direct customers are wholesalers and distributors (McKesson, Cencora, Cardinal Health in the U.S.), retail and specialty pharmacy chains, hospital systems, government purchasers (Medicare Part D plans, Medicaid programs, the Veterans Health Administration, and from 2026 the TrumpRx platform), managed-care organisations and pharmacy benefit managers, and — increasingly — patients paying cash through LillyDirect and affiliated telehealth partners. End-markets are obesity and metabolic disease, type 2 diabetes, oncology, immunology/inflammation, neurodegeneration and pain.

Strategy

Stated strategy

Lilly's strategy as articulated by management centres on five therapeutic-area priorities, restated in the FY2025 Q4 release: redefining diabetes care; treating obesity and curtailing its most devastating long-term effects; advancing the fight against Alzheimer's disease; providing solutions to debilitating immune system disorders; and transforming the most difficult-to-treat cancers into manageable diseases.

David Ricks framed the 2025 performance in the Q4 release around reach and access: launching Inluriyo, expanding Mounjaro and Kisunla globally, submitting orforglipron for approval, expanding manufacturing capacity, and — "through our U.S. government agreement" — opening new access to obesity medicines, with LillyDirect named as a platform positioning the company "to reach more patients than ever." In the Q2 2026 release he added the forward framing: retatrutide with a complete clinical data package, new manufacturing capacity coming online, and new assets entering the pipeline through business development.

Four strategic pillars are observable in capital allocation:

(1) Own the obesity category end-to-end and across modalities. Injectable (tirzepatide), oral small molecule (orforglipron), next-generation triple agonist (retatrutide), and amylin (eloralintide) — plus combination strategies with existing franchises (the Taltz + Zepbound psoriatic arthritis Phase 3b) and indication expansion beyond weight into OSA, knee osteoarthritis, cardiovascular outcomes and menopause-related weight gain.

(2) Convert the pricing debate into a volume expansion. Rather than defending list prices, Lilly has pre-emptively negotiated with the U.S. government, cut cash-pay prices, and used LillyDirect to capture self-pay demand. Management's explicit thesis, repeated by Ricks at the Foundayo launch, is that fewer than one in ten people who could benefit from GLP-1 therapy currently take one.

(3) Buy the next decade's pipeline while the cash is abundant. At least thirteen acquisitions in 2026 alone, deliberately diversified away from metabolic disease into sleep-wake (Centessa), inflammation (Ventyx), oncology (Ajax, CrossBridge), genetic medicine (Orna, Kelonia, Engage, Adverum), infectious disease (three acquisitions in May 2026), immunology (Merida) and mental health (AtaiBeckley).

(4) Build sovereign-scale manufacturing in the United States. More than $50 billion committed since 2020, of which at least $27 billion announced in November 2025 — explicitly linked to tariff relief and pricing certainty.

Announced strategic initiatives, last 24 months

DateInitiativeDetail
Jan 2024LillyDirect launchDirect-to-patient telehealth and dispensing platform
Dec 2024Share repurchase authorisationUSD 15.0 billion programme authorised
2025 (H1)Manufacturing announcementsFour new U.S. sites announced; three for API including tirzepatide, one for injectables
Oct 2025Capacity expansionNew facilities in Virginia and Texas; expansion of Puerto Rico site
3 Nov 2025European oral manufacturingUSD 3 billion facility to boost oral medicine manufacturing capacity in Europe
6 Nov 2025U.S. government agreementMFN pricing on new medicines; Medicare/Medicaid access to obesity medicines; TrumpRx distribution; in exchange, three years of tariff relief and exemption from future pricing mandates. Medicare beneficiary copay capped at USD 50/month for Zepbound and orforglipron from as early as 1 April 2026
6 Nov 2025Leadership expansionTwo new Executive Committee members; expanded roles "to prepare for next wave of growth"
19 Nov 2025Lilly Gateway Labs PhiladelphiaNew incubator site
Dec 2025Alabama API facilityUSD 6 billion investment
Dec 2025 / Jan 2026NVIDIA Co-Innovation AI LabJoint AI laboratory "to reinvent drug discovery in the age of AI"
Jan 2026Pennsylvania facilityNew injectable medicine and device manufacturing site
Apr 2026Foundayo launchDirect-to-patient-first commercial model via LillyDirect, then retail and telehealth
May 2026Indiana expansionAdditional USD 4.5 billion committed; first dedicated genetic medicine facility opened
May 2026Infectious disease entryThree acquisitions announced to build an infectious disease portfolio
May 2026Access expansion"Foundayo and Zepbound now covered for millions of Americans"
Jun 2026Medicare Part D guidancePatient-facing communications on accessing Foundayo and Zepbound for weight management under Part D
Ongoing2030 sustainability goalsCarbon neutrality in Scope 1 and 2 by 2030; 100% renewable purchased electricity by 2030; zero waste to landfill from routine operations; 100% of plastic waste repurposed

Medium-term financial targets and guidance

Guidance metricFY2026 initial (Feb 2026)FY2026 after Q1 (Apr 2026)FY2026 after Q2 (Aug 2026)
Revenue (USD bn)80.0 to 83.082.0 to 85.085.0 to 87.0
Performance margin (%)46.0 to 47.547.0 to 48.549.0 to 50.5
Tax rate (%)18 to 1918 to 1918 to 19
Non-GAAP EPS (USD)33.50 to 35.0035.50 to 37.0035.50 to 36.50

Guidance assumes approximately 894 million shares outstanding and, at the August revision, FX assumptions of 1.14 (EUR), 153 (JPY) and 7.1 (CNY). Guidance excludes acquired IPR&D incurred after 30 June 2026 and excludes intangible amortisation. Performance margin is defined by Lilly as gross margin less R&D and MS&A expense, divided by revenue. Lilly has not published formal multi-year revenue or margin targets beyond the current fiscal year.

Products & Services

Cardiometabolic Health

Mounjaro (tirzepatide) — injection. A once-weekly dual glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) and GLP-1 receptor agonist, approved by FDA in May 2022 for adults with type 2 diabetes as an adjunct to diet and exercise. Available in single-dose pens across a dose-titration range; in Q4 2025 FDA approved a KwikPen multi-dose presentation for tirzepatide. Target customer: adults with type 2 diabetes, increasingly with cardiovascular comorbidity following the SURPASS-CVOT readout in 2025. FY2025 worldwide revenue $22,965 million (+99%); H1 2026 revenue $18,605 million (+106%). Mounjaro was added to China's National Reimbursement Drug List in Q1 2026, driving 172% ex-U.S. growth in Q2 2026 at materially lower realised prices. Pricing: list price historically approximately $1,000 per month in the U.S. before rebates; under the November 2025 U.S. government agreement, Mounjaro was added to LillyDirect for self-pay patients at 50–60% below prior pricing and made available via TrumpRx.

Zepbound (tirzepatide) — injection. The same molecule marketed for chronic weight management, approved November 2023, with an additional indication for moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnoea in adults with obesity granted December 2024. Marketed as Zepbound in the United States, Canada and Japan; tirzepatide for obesity is marketed under other brands elsewhere. FY2025 revenue $13,542 million (+175%); H1 2026 revenue $9,088 million (+60%). Pricing: single-dose pens at list; multi-dose pen reduced to $299 per month at the lowest dose (up to $449 at higher doses) on LillyDirect following the November 2025 agreement; Medicare beneficiary copay capped at $50 per month from as early as 1 April 2026.

Foundayo (orforglipron) — oral tablet. A once-daily, non-peptide small-molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist, approved by FDA on 1 April 2026 for adults with obesity, or overweight with at least one weight-related comorbidity, in combination with reduced-calorie diet and increased physical activity. It is the first oral GLP-1 that can be taken at any time of day without food or water restrictions, and the first new molecular entity approved under the FDA Commissioner's National Priority Voucher programme. In ATTAIN-1 (n=1,401, 72 weeks) it produced 12.4% mean body-weight reduction versus 2.3% for placebo. Distribution began through LillyDirect on 6 April 2026, followed by retail and telehealth. Pricing: $149 per month self-pay at the lowest dose rising to approximately $299–399 at maintenance doses; as little as $25 per month for eligible commercially insured patients; $50 per month for eligible Medicare Part D beneficiaries from 1 July 2026. Submitted for type 2 diabetes in the U.S. in Q2 2026 and filed in more than 40 countries. First reported revenue: $98 million in Q2 2026.

Trulicity (dulaglutide). Once-weekly GLP-1 receptor agonist for type 2 diabetes, launched 2014. In structural decline as prescribers migrate to tirzepatide: FY2025 revenue $4,276 million versus $7,440 million in FY2022. Added to LillyDirect self-pay at a substantial discount under the November 2025 agreement (TrumpRx price of approximately $389 per month against a $598 list).

Jardiance (empagliflozin) and the Boehringer Ingelheim alliance. SGLT2 inhibitor for type 2 diabetes, heart failure and chronic kidney disease, co-promoted with Boehringer Ingelheim under the 2011 global diabetes alliance. FY2025 revenue $3,432 million. Ex-U.S. Jardiance revenue included a $250 million sales-based milestone in Q2 2026 and benefited from a $300 million one-time collaboration-amendment benefit in Q4 2024. Related alliance brands: Trajenta/Jentadueto (linagliptin; FY2025 $318 million), Glyxambi and Synjardy (fixed-dose combinations), and Basaglar (insulin glargine; FY2025 $626 million).

Insulin portfolio. Humalog (insulin lispro, launched 1996; FY2025 $2,168 million), Lyumjev (ultra-rapid lispro), Humulin (recombinant human insulin; FY2025 $705 million), Rezvoglar (insulin glargine-aglr, an interchangeable biosimilar). Lilly was the first manufacturer to cap patient out-of-pocket insulin costs at $35 per month. This portfolio is in managed decline under pricing pressure.

Retatrutide (pipeline, not yet approved). A triple GIP/GLP-1/glucagon receptor agonist. During Q4 2025 and H1 2026 Lilly completed the Phase 3 programme, reporting weight loss of up to an average of 71.2 lbs, plus substantial benefit in knee osteoarthritis pain and obstructive sleep apnoea. Management stated in August 2026 that the clinical data package is complete to support global registrations in obesity, OSA and knee OA pain, with a U.S. Biologics License Application planned for Q1 2027. This is the single most important pipeline asset for the 2027–2030 revenue trajectory.

Eloralintide (pipeline). A selective amylin receptor agonist that demonstrated meaningful weight loss and favourable tolerability in a Phase 2 study reported November 2025 — Lilly's principal entrant in the amylin class, the field's most credible next competitive front.

Oncology

Verzenio (abemaciclib). CDK4/6 inhibitor for HR+/HER2- breast cancer, including adjuvant early breast cancer. FY2025 revenue $5,723 million (+8%), with U.S. revenue declining 4% in Q4 2025 against 18% ex-U.S. growth. The largest oncology asset and the one facing the nearest-term maturity.

Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib). The first and only non-covalent (reversible) BTK inhibitor, originating from the Loxo Oncology acquisition. FDA granted an expanded indication in December 2025 for adults with relapsed or refractory CLL/SLL previously treated with a covalent BTK inhibitor; the European Commission approved it as monotherapy across all lines of CLL in Q2 2026. Clinical momentum is strong: an 80% reduction in risk of progression or death versus chemoimmunotherapy in treatment-naïve CLL/SLL (December 2025); a positive head-to-head Phase 3 versus ibrutinib (December 2025); and a 45% reduction in progression or death when added to a venetoclax time-limited regimen (June 2026). H1 2026 revenue $357 million (+66%).

Retevmo (selpercatinib). Selective RET kinase inhibitor. In May 2026 Lilly reported an 83% reduction in risk of disease recurrence or death as adjuvant therapy in early-stage RET fusion-positive lung cancer — a potentially label-expanding result.

Inluriyo (imlunestrant). Oral selective estrogen receptor degrader approved by FDA in 2025 for certain adults with ER+, HER2- advanced or metastatic breast cancer; added to Lilly's "Key Products" definition from Q4 2025. Updated data in December 2025 reinforced efficacy as monotherapy and in combination with Verzenio. H1 2026 revenue $110 million.

Cyramza (ramucirumab), Erbitux (cetuximab) and Alimta (pemetrexed) are mature or genericised legacy oncology assets. Tyvyt (sintilimab) is commercialised in China with Innovent Biologics.

Radioligand therapy. Acquired through POINT Biopharma (2023). Lilly recorded an intangible-asset impairment on POINT-acquired assets in Q4 2025, indicating the programme has underperformed original expectations.

Pipeline oncology. Olomorasib (KRAS G12C inhibitor) received FDA Breakthrough Therapy designation in Q2 2026 for previously treated KRAS G12C-mutant advanced pancreatic cancer. Sofetabart mipitecan received Breakthrough Therapy designation in Q4 2025 for platinum-resistant ovarian cancer.

Immunology

Taltz (ixekizumab). IL-17A antagonist for psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis and axial spondyloarthritis, launched 2016. In January 2026 Lilly reported a first-of-its-kind Phase 3b trial in which Taltz and Zepbound used together delivered superior efficacy in adults with active psoriatic arthritis and obesity — a template for incretin-combination lifecycle strategy across the portfolio.

Ebglyss (lebrikizumab-lbkz). IL-13 inhibitor for moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis. FDA approved a one-maintenance-dose-every-eight-weeks regimen in June 2026, a meaningful convenience differentiator against competing biologics. H1 2026 revenue $346 million (+135%).

Omvoh (mirikizumab-mrkz). IL-23p19 antagonist approved for ulcerative colitis and, in 2025, Crohn's disease. In May 2026 Lilly reported it as the first and only IL-23p19 to demonstrate durable disease clearance in ulcerative colitis through four years. H1 2026 revenue $182 million (+62%).

Olumiant (baricitinib). JAK inhibitor licensed from Incyte, for rheumatoid arthritis, alopecia areata and severe COVID-19.

Neuroscience

Kisunla (donanemab-azbt). Anti-amyloid monoclonal antibody for early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease, approved by FDA in July 2024 and by the European Commission in 2025. H1 2026 revenue $291 million against $70 million in H1 2025. Kisunla is the company's principal long-duration neuroscience bet and carries the sector's characteristic reimbursement and infusion-infrastructure constraints.

Emgality (galcanezumab-gnlm). CGRP antibody for migraine prevention and episodic cluster headache. Under the November 2025 U.S. government agreement, Emgality is available via TrumpRx at $299 per pen against a $443 list price.

Diagnostics. Amyvid (florbetapir F 18) received an expanded FDA approval in 2025 for Alzheimer's disease diagnosis; Tauvid (flortaucipir F 18) is a tau PET tracer. Reyvow (lasmiditan) is an acute migraine treatment. Legacy CNS brands (Zyprexa, Cymbalta, Prozac, Strattera) are fully genericised.

Pipeline. Cleminorexton and the wider orexin receptor 2 agonist portfolio acquired with Centessa (excessive daytime sleepiness, narcolepsy type 1 and 2, idiopathic hypersomnia); BPL-003 and the AtaiBeckley psychedelics portfolio for treatment-resistant depression.

Genetic medicine and platforms

VERVE-102. An in vivo PCSK9 base editor acquired with Verve Therapeutics (closed July 2025). In May 2026 Lilly reported that a single dose reduced PCSK9 by up to 88% and LDL-C by up to 62%, with durable effects — supporting a one-time treatment for hypercholesterolaemia. This is a genuinely differentiated platform asset.

Other platform acquisitions (2026). Orna Therapeutics (circular RNA), Kelonia Therapeutics (in vivo gene delivery), Engage Biologics (non-viral DNA delivery), CrossBridge Bio (dual-payload ADCs), Adverum (ocular gene therapy). Lilly opened its first dedicated genetic medicine manufacturing facility in Indiana in May 2026.

Services and digital platforms

LillyDirect. Launched January 2024; a direct-to-patient platform combining telehealth referral, prescription fulfilment and self-pay pricing. It has become strategically central: Foundayo launched exclusively through LillyDirect before retail availability, and the November 2025 government agreement placed Mounjaro, Trulicity and Emgality on the platform at 50–60% discounts. LillyDirect is the company's principal mechanism for participating in the cash-pay segment of the obesity market without disrupting rebated channel economics.

Lilly Gateway Labs. Incubator sites hosting early-stage biotechnology companies; a Philadelphia site was announced in November 2025, joining existing locations.

Lilly Medicine Foundry (Lebanon, Indiana) and the Lilly Seaport Innovation Center (Boston) are, respectively, a combined research-and-manufacturing scale-up facility and a genetic medicines research hub.

NVIDIA Co-Innovation AI Lab. Announced with NVIDIA in Q4 2025/January 2026 to apply large-scale AI to drug discovery; Lilly has separately deployed one of the largest supercomputing installations in the pharmaceutical industry.

Financial Narrative

Income statement: notes and sources

Source: FY2025 Q4 8-K for FY2024–FY2025 reported operating income and all FY2025 line items; S&P Global Market Intelligence standardised data (via stockanalysis.com) for FY2021–FY2023. FY2023 reported operating income derived from disclosed components.

Margins

Revenue CAGR FY2021–FY2025: 23.2%. Net income CAGR over the same period: 38.7%. Diluted EPS CAGR: 39.2%.

Commentary on trends, inflections and drivers

Revenue. The inflection is unambiguous and dates to FY2023. Growth of 0.8% in FY2022 — the trough, caused by the COVID-antibody run-off and Alimta's genericisation masking underlying strength — gave way to 19.6%, then 32.0%, then 44.7%. The driver is one molecule: tirzepatide grew from $483 million in FY2022 to $36.5 billion across two brands in FY2025. The FY2026 trajectory has accelerated further, with Q1 revenue of $19.8 billion (+56%) and Q2 revenue of $23.0 billion (+48%), taking H1 2026 to $42.8 billion (+51%).

Price versus volume. This is the most important dynamic to monitor. In Q4 2025, a 46% volume increase was partially offset by a 5% price decline. In Q2 2026, a 60% volume increase was offset by a 13% price decline — and ex-U.S. realised prices fell 36%, driven by Mounjaro's addition to China's NRDL. U.S. pricing in Q2 2026 fell only 3% as reported, but management disclosed that excluding favourable rebate-and-discount estimate adjustments, U.S. price would have declined approximately 9%. Lilly is deliberately trading price for volume; the strategy is working at the revenue line but the margin of safety narrows if volume growth normalises.

Gross margin. Expansion from 75.4% (FY2021) to 83.0% (FY2025) and 86.3% on a non-GAAP basis in Q2 2026 reflects favourable mix (tirzepatide displacing insulins) and, increasingly, improved cost of production as the new manufacturing base achieves scale. The Q2 2026 gross margin expansion of 130 basis points despite a 13% price decline is the single strongest datapoint in Lilly's favour on operating leverage.

Operating expense discipline. R&D grew 92% between FY2021 and FY2025 in absolute terms but fell from 24.5% to 20.5% of revenue, and to 17% in Q2 2026. Marketing, selling and administrative expense fell from 21.7% to 17.0% of revenue. Management's performance-margin guidance for FY2026 — raised to 49.0–50.5% in August 2026 from 46.0–47.5% at the February guide — captures this leverage.

The FY2023 anomaly. Net income fell 16% in FY2023 despite 19.6% revenue growth. The cause was $4.24 billion of acquired IPR&D charges from the DICE, Versanis, POINT and Sigilon transactions, plus a normalised tax rate (20.1% against 8.3% the prior year). Operating cash flow collapsed to $4.24 billion and free cash flow to $792 million. This year is the clearest illustration of why Lilly's GAAP earnings are a poor guide to underlying performance in heavy business-development years — a point that recurred in Q2 2026, when $3.03 per share of acquired IPR&D charges (from Orna and Ajax) offset an underlying guidance raise of $2.78 per share.

Working capital and the cash conversion cycle. The cash conversion cycle has lengthened from 202 days to 376 days over five years. Days inventory outstanding more than doubled, from 203 to 454 days. This is the balance-sheet signature of a company pre-building inventory and capacity ahead of demand — pre-launch inventories capitalised stood at $808.5 million at June 2025 against $548.1 million at December 2024. It is defensible as strategy but it is a real cash drag: the change in working capital consumed $8.1 billion in FY2025.

Capital intensity. Capex rose from $1.31 billion (FY2021) to $7.84 billion (FY2025), a six-fold increase, with a trailing-twelve-month figure of $9.89 billion at June 2026. Construction in progress reached $13.0 billion at December 2025 — 50% of gross PP&E. This is the largest manufacturing build-out in the industry's history and it has compressed free cash flow conversion: FCF margin was 13.8% in FY2025 against a 31.7% net margin.

Leverage. Total debt tripled from $16.9 billion (FY2021) to $43.9 billion (FY2025) and reached $54.9 billion at June 2026, funding capex and acquisitions. Yet net debt/EBITDA improved from 1.92x (FY2023) to 1.15x (FY2025) because EBITDA grew faster than borrowings. Interest coverage of 46.9x in FY2025 is comfortable. The balance sheet is not the constraint.

Shareholder returns. Dividends per share have compounded at approximately 15% annually for five consecutive years, reaching $6.00 in FY2025 and running at $3.46 for H1 2026. The payout ratio has fallen to 26.1% as earnings outgrew the dividend. Buybacks accelerated to $4.1 billion in FY2025 and $6.2 billion on a trailing-twelve-month basis at June 2026, but remain modest relative to cash generation — capacity and M&A take priority.

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Financial Detail

Income Statement and Per-Share Data

Metric (USD Mn unless stated)FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025

Revenue

28,31828,54134,12445,04365,179

Cost of sales

6,9736,6307,0828,41811,052

Gross profit

21,34521,91227,04236,62554,127

Research and development

6,9317,1919,31310,99113,337

Marketing, selling and administrative

6,1426,0687,4048,59411,094

Operating income (before acquired IPR&D and special charges)

8,2738,65310,32517,04029,696

Acquired IPR&D charges

——4,2403,2802,910

Asset impairment, restructuring and other special charges

1,04824568861484

Operating income (as reported by Lilly)

——6,01712,89926,302

EBITDA (before acquired IPR&D and special charges)

9,82010,17611,85218,80731,693

Income before income taxes

6,1566,8066,55412,68025,731

Income tax expense

5745621,3142,0905,091

Net income

5,5826,2455,24010,59020,640

EPS basic (USD)

6.156.935.8211.7623.00

EPS diluted (USD)

6.126.905.8011.7122.95

Non-GAAP EPS diluted (USD)

———12.9924.21

Dividends declared/paid per share (USD)

3.403.924.525.206.00

Diluted weighted-average shares (M)

912905903904899

Margin (%)

Margin (%)FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025

Gross margin

75.476.879.381.383.0

Gross margin (non-GAAP)

———82.583.8

Operating margin (before IPR&D and specials)

29.230.330.337.845.6

EBITDA margin

34.735.734.741.848.6

Pre-tax margin

21.723.919.228.239.5

Net margin

19.721.915.423.531.7

R&D as % of revenue

24.525.227.324.420.5

MS&A as % of revenue

21.721.321.719.117.0

Effective tax rate (reported)

9.38.320.116.519.8

Balance Sheet and Per-Share Data

Metric (USD Mn)FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025

Total assets

48,80649,49064,00678,715112,476

Cash and cash equivalents

3,8192,0672,8193,2687,268

Cash and investments (incl. short-term)

5,1933,1263,7533,7547,491

Accounts receivable

6,6736,8969,09111,00617,760

Inventory

3,8864,3105,7737,58913,744

Total current assets

18,45218,03525,72732,74055,629

Property, plant and equipment, net

8,98510,14413,93818,15225,935

Construction in progress

2,1782,7995,0848,24513,013

Goodwill

3,8924,0734,9405,7705,898

Other intangible assets

7,6927,2076,9076,1666,521

Goodwill and intangibles combined

11,58411,28011,84711,93612,419

Short-term debt and current maturities

1,5401,5017,0915,2931,857

Long-term debt (incl. long-term leases)

15,38714,87219,37429,49842,008

Total debt

16,92716,37326,46534,79143,865

Net debt

11,73313,24722,71231,03736,374

Total current liabilities

15,05317,13827,29328,37635,228

Total liabilities

39,65138,71453,14364,44385,941

Shareholders' equity

9,15510,77510,86414,27226,535

Working capital

3,400896-1,5664,36420,401

Book value per share (USD)

9.9411.8311.9815.9029.65

Tangible book value

-2,605-630-1,0742,33614,116

Cash Flow

Metric (USD Mn)FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025

Operating cash flow

7,3667,5864,2408,81816,813

Capital expenditures

1,3101,8543,4485,0587,841

Free cash flow

6,0565,7317923,7608,972

Purchases of intangibles / IPR&D

4531,0352,3402,7452,790

Cash acquisitions, net

7473271,044948661

Dividends paid

3,0873,5364,0694,6805,384

Share repurchases

1,2501,5007502,5004,108

Net debt issued (repaid)

501-628,6508,9018,051

Cash interest paid

338324404578633

Cash income tax paid

1,5992,6735,5596,56210,814

Change in working capital

-1,013-1-3,055-5,384-8,093

Returns & Leverage Ratios (%) and Financial Ratios (x)

RatioFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025

Return on equity (net income / closing equity, %)

61.058.048.274.277.8

Return on assets (net income / closing assets, %)

11.412.68.213.518.4

ROIC (NOPAT / debt + equity, %)

28.829.222.129.033.8

Current ratio (x)

1.231.050.941.151.58

Debt / equity (x)

1.851.522.442.441.65

Net debt / EBITDA (x)

1.191.301.921.651.15

Interest coverage (EBIT / cash interest paid, x)

24.526.725.629.546.9

Asset turnover (revenue / closing assets, x)

0.580.580.530.570.58

Days sales outstanding

8688978999

Days inventory outstanding

203237298329454

Days payables outstanding

87106134140178

Cash conversion cycle (days)

202219261278376

Dividend payout ratio (DPS / diluted EPS, %)

55.656.877.944.426.1

Revenue by Region

Region (USD Mn)FY2023FY2024FY2025

United States

—30,38043,480

Europe

—6,92011,560

Japan

—1,8102,130

China

—1,6601,950

Rest of world

—4,2706,060

Total

34,12445,04365,179

Geographic Revenue

RegionFY2024 % of revenueFY2025 % of revenueFY2024→FY2025 growth (%)

United States

67.466.743.1

Europe

15.417.767.0

Japan

4.03.317.5

China

3.73.017.5

Rest of world

9.59.341.8

Revenue by Region and Region Assets & Liabilities

Region (USD Mn)FY2024FY2025

Ireland

3,2054,321

Rest of world (ex-U.S., ex-Ireland)

2,1593,516

Total long-lived assets

18,76526,601

Revenue by Region and Region Margins & Growth (%)

MetricQ4 2025Q2 2026

U.S. revenue (USD Mn)

12,90014,400

U.S. growth (%)

4333

Ex-U.S. revenue (USD Mn)

6,4008,600

Ex-U.S. growth (%)

4380

Valuation Snapshot

MetricValue

Closing price, 14 Sep 2026

USD 1,138.28 (+2.02% on the day)

Pre-market, 15 Sep 2026

USD 1,152.77

Shares outstanding, 30 Jun 2026

891.5 million

Market capitalisation

Approximately USD 1.015 trillion

Net debt, 30 Jun 2026

USD 45,162 million

Enterprise value (approx.)

Approximately USD 1.060 trillion

Analysts covering

38

Consensus rating

Moderate Buy / Outperform; buy-percentage consensus of approximately 81%

Average 12-month price target

Approximately USD 1,229–1,292 (sources differ: USD 1,229.59 and USD 1,270.28 and USD 1,292.18 reported by different aggregators)

Implied upside from 14 Sep 2026 close

Approximately 8% to 14%

Next reported quarter

Q3 2026, indicated for 29 October 2026

Consensus Q3 2026 EPS

USD 9.81

Consensus Q3 2026 revenue

USD 22.38 billion

Valuation Multiples

MultipleCurrent (Sep 2026)FY2025FY2024FY2023FY2022FY2021

P/E (trailing)

38.246.665.6100.055.744.9

P/E (forward)

27.934.335.153.446.331.8

P/Sales

12.714.815.415.412.28.8

P/FCF

55.8107.3184.9661.960.741.4

P/Book (approx.)

30.038.465.483.649.427.8

EV/Sales (TTM, approx.)

13.3—————

EV/EBITDA (TTM, approx.)

25.4—————

Dividend yield (%)

0.610.560.680.791.101.28

Dividend History

Fiscal yearDividend per share (USD)Growth (%)Dividends paid (USD Mn)Payout ratio (%)
20213.4014.93,08755.6
20223.9215.33,53656.8
20234.5215.34,06977.9
20245.2015.04,68044.4
20256.0015.45,38426.1

2026 (H1 actual)

3.4615.3——

Credit Ratings

AgencyLong-term ratingShort-termOutlookAs of

Moody's Ratings

Aa3 (upgraded from A1 in February 2025)

Prime-1

Positive (revised from stable, 12 December 2025)

Dec 2025

S&P Global Ratings

———

S&P rated proposed senior unsecured notes as recently as May 2026

Analyst Conclusions

Management guidance

For FY2026, Lilly guides to revenue of $85.0–87.0 billion, performance margin of 49.0–50.5%, an effective tax rate of 18–19%, and non-GAAP EPS of $35.50–36.50 (excluding acquired IPR&D incurred after 30 June 2026 and intangible amortisation, assuming approximately 894 million shares and FX of 1.14 EUR / 153 JPY / 7.1 CNY). At the midpoint this implies revenue growth of approximately 32% and non-GAAP EPS growth of approximately 49% over FY2025.

H1 2026 revenue of $42.8 billion means the guidance midpoint requires approximately $43.2 billion in H2 — implying H2 growth of roughly 27% against a much harder comparative base. Management has raised revenue guidance at each of the last five reporting events.

No formal multi-year targets have been published.

Consensus expectations

Thirty-eight analysts cover the stock, with approximately 81% rating it a buy and an average twelve-month price target in the $1,229–1,292 range against a $1,138.28 close. Consensus for Q3 2026 sits at $9.81 EPS on $22.38 billion revenue. Forward P/E of 27.9x implies consensus FY2027 EPS of roughly $41.

Bull case

1. The retatrutide optionality is not priced. Lilly has a complete Phase 3 package across obesity, obstructive sleep apnoea and knee osteoarthritis pain, with average weight loss of up to 71.2 lbs, and a BLA planned for Q1 2027. No competitor has an asset with comparable demonstrated efficacy breadth. If retatrutide launches into a category already expanded by Medicare coverage and oral availability, it extends the franchise's growth runway well past 2030 — and the current 27.9x forward multiple embeds no meaningful retatrutide contribution.

2. Operating leverage is still compounding, and faster than expected. Performance margin guidance moved from 46.0–47.5% in February 2026 to 49.0–50.5% in August — a 300 basis point upgrade in six months. Q2 2026 gross margin expanded 130 basis points year-on-year despite a 13% decline in realised prices, and R&D fell to 17% of revenue. Each incremental dollar of revenue is dropping through at a higher rate than management or consensus modelled.

3. Volume elasticity is beating price erosion decisively, and the policy settlement locks that in. Q2 2026 volume growth of 60% overwhelmed a 13% price decline. The November 2025 agreement converted the single largest overhang on the stock — U.S. drug pricing policy — into a structural volume catalyst: Medicare and Medicaid now cover anti-obesity medication for the first time, with a $50 monthly copay cap, and Lilly secured three years of tariff relief and exemption from future pricing mandates in return. With fewer than one in ten eligible patients currently treated, the elasticity trade has years to run.

Bear case

1. The concentration is extreme and the price trajectory is one-way. Tirzepatide is 56% of revenue. Realised prices went from -5% (Q4 2025) to -13% (Q2 2026) company-wide, and -36% outside the United States. Management disclosed that stripping out favourable rebate-estimate adjustments, U.S. price would have fallen approximately 9% in Q2 rather than 3% — meaning the reported figure flatters the underlying trend. Volume growth must remain extraordinary indefinitely simply to hold revenue flat against this price decay, and the volume base is now very large.

2. Cash conversion is deteriorating and capital discipline is unproven at this deal cadence. Free cash flow was $8.97 billion against $20.64 billion of net income in FY2025 — 43% conversion. The cash conversion cycle has lengthened by 174 days in four years, with inventory at 454 days. Meanwhile, at least thirteen acquisitions closed or announced in 2026 have produced $3.36 billion of acquired IPR&D charges in H1 alone and $703 million of integration and accelerated-vesting charges in Q2. The one deal old enough to assess — POINT BioPharma, $1.4 billion in 2023 — was impaired in Q4 2025. Buying thirteen companies in eight months is not a repeatable competence; it is a hypothesis.

3. The diversification that is supposed to de-risk the story is not yet working. Oncology grew 7.1% in FY2025 against 31.5% the prior year, with U.S. Verzenio declining. Neuroscience revenue has fallen 52% since FY2023. Immunology, the best of the three, is a $5.2 billion business against AbbVie's immunology franchise several times that size. If the incretin category matures faster than expected — and oral semaglutide reached the market before Foundayo, taking roughly a third of new-to-brand obesity prescriptions within eight weeks — there is nothing of scale behind it for at least three years.

Catalysts and monitorables, next twelve months

TimingCatalyst / monitorableWhy it matters
29 Oct 2026Q3 2026 resultsConsensus $9.81 EPS / $22.38bn revenue; first quarter with a full Foundayo contribution and a harder comparative
Q4 2026Foundayo prescription trajectory versus oral semaglutideThe decisive competitive datapoint of the next twelve months
Q4 2026 / Q1 2027Orforglipron approvals outside the U.S. (filed in 40+ countries) and U.S. type 2 diabetes decisionDetermines the size of the oral franchise
Q1 2027Retatrutide BLA submissionThe largest single value driver in the pipeline
OngoingRealised price trend, particularly U.S. net price excluding rebate-estimate adjustmentsThe single most important disclosure in each quarterly release
OngoingGross margin and performance margin versus the 49.0–50.5% guideTests whether operating leverage survives the international mix shift
OngoingFree cash flow conversion and days inventory outstandingTests whether the capacity build is converting to cash
Ongoing340B en banc petition and Mosaic Health proceedingsPotentially material financial exposure
OngoingStrive antitrust action (W.D. Tex.)Tests the legality of the telehealth-exclusivity model underpinning LillyDirect
OngoingFurther M&A cadence and acquired IPR&D chargesEach large deal mechanically reduces reported EPS
Mid-2027Implementation milestones under the November 2025 U.S. government agreementTariff relief runs three years from November 2025
OngoingEloralintide Phase 3 initiation and competitor amylin dataThe next competitive front after triple agonists

Analyst verdict

Eli Lilly is the most successful pharmaceutical franchise of the modern era and, simultaneously, the most concentrated large-cap bet in the sector. Both facts follow from the same molecule. Tirzepatide took the company from $28.5 billion of revenue in FY2022 to $65.2 billion in FY2025 and, on current guidance, to $86 billion in FY2026 — a near-tripling in four years, achieved with gross margin expanding 760 basis points and R&D intensity falling 400 basis points. That combination of growth and leverage is, on the evidence of the last five years, without precedent at this scale.

What has changed in the last twelve months is that the bear case has narrowed from "will the pricing environment destroy this?" to "how fast does price fall, and is anything behind the incretins?" The November 2025 agreement with the U.S. government was a genuinely skilful piece of corporate statecraft: Lilly conceded on price ahead of being compelled to, and bought in exchange three years of tariff relief, exemption from future pricing mandates, and — most valuably — the first-ever Medicare and Medicaid coverage of anti-obesity medication. The volume response, visible in 60% Q2 2026 volume growth, has so far overwhelmed the price concession by a factor of roughly four.

The legitimate concerns are cash and concentration. Free cash flow conversion of 43% of net income, a 376-day cash conversion cycle and $13 billion of construction in progress mean that reported earnings substantially overstate distributable cash. And thirteen acquisitions in eight months — however strategically coherent the individual logic in sleep-wake, inflammation, genetic medicine and infectious disease — is a volume of integration work no organisation has executed cleanly, with the POINT BioPharma impairment offering an early cautionary datapoint. Diversification is being bought faster than it can be built, and none of it will contribute revenue before 2028.

At 27.9x forward earnings and roughly 8–14% implied upside to consensus targets, the stock is not obviously mispriced in either direction. The multiple has compressed by more than half since FY2023 even as the share price tripled, which is the mark of a business whose earnings are outrunning its valuation rather than the reverse. The asymmetry that remains is retatrutide: a Q1 2027 BLA on a complete three-indication package, with efficacy that no competitor has matched, into a category whose reimbursement architecture Lilly has just finished rebuilding in its own favour. Constructive, with the recognition that the entire thesis rests on one therapeutic class and one price-versus-volume equation that must continue to resolve favourably every single quarter.


End of dossier. Figures marked "nd" were not verifiable in primary or reliable secondary sources at the time of preparation and have not been estimated.

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Executive Leadership

Executive Leadership Team

NameTitleNotes

David A. Ricks

Chair, President and Chief Executive Officer

CEO since 1 January 2017; born 1967; BSc Purdue University (1990), MBA Kelley School of Business, Indiana University (1996); also a director of Adobe Inc. and a Purdue University trustee

Lucas Montarce

EVP and Chief Financial Officer

Appointed 2024 following Anat Ashkenazi's departure to Alphabet

Daniel M. Skovronsky, M.D., Ph.D.

EVP, Chief Scientific and Product Officer; President, Lilly Research Laboratories

Joined Lilly via the 2010 Avid Radiopharmaceuticals acquisition, which he founded

Anat Hakim

EVP, General Counsel and Secretary

—

Jacob (Jake) Van Naarden

EVP; President, Lilly Oncology and Head of Corporate Business Development

Joined via Loxo Oncology; now leads the acquisition programme

Ilya Yuffa

EVP and President, Lilly USA and Global Customer Capabilities

Age 51; 29 years of Lilly service; in role since 2025, previously President, Lilly International

Patrik Jonsson

EVP and President, Lilly International

Previously President, Lilly Immunology and Lilly USA, and Chief Customer Officer

Kenneth Custer, Ph.D.

EVP and President, Lilly Cardiometabolic Health

—

Adrienne Brown

EVP and President, Lilly Immunology

Appointed to the Executive Committee November 2025

Carole Ho

EVP and President, Lilly Neuroscience

Appointed to the Executive Committee November 2025

Edgardo Hernandez

EVP and President, Manufacturing Operations

—

Melissa S. Seymour

EVP, Global Quality

—

Eric Dozier

EVP and Chief People Officer

—

Diogo Rau

EVP and Chief Information and Digital Officer

Previously Apple

Directors' Remuneration

ExecutiveSalary (USD)Stock awards (USD)Non-equity incentive (USD)Pension/deferred (USD)All other (USD)Total (USD)

David A. Ricks

1,700,00023,325,0006,485,5004,451,636736,20136,698,337

Daniel M. Skovronsky

1,490,38512,000,0003,249,039887,845159,30717,786,576

Anat Hakim

1,000,0006,000,0002,180,000502,948162,5709,845,518

Lucas Montarce

1,000,0005,000,0002,180,000243,31560,0008,483,315

Jake Van Naarden

920,1924,500,0002,006,01987,36772,5197,586,097

Board of Directors

DirectorPrincipal occupationIndependent

David A. Ricks (Chair)

Chair and CEO, Eli Lilly and Company

No

Juan R. Luciano (Lead Independent Director since 2019)

Chair and CEO, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company

Yes

Ralph Alvarez

Operating Partner, Advent International Corporation

Yes

Katherine Baicker, Ph.D.

Provost, University of Chicago; Professor, Harris School of Public Policy

Yes

Carolyn R. Bertozzi, Ph.D.

Professor of Chemistry, Stanford University; HHMI Investigator; Nobel laureate

Yes

J. Erik Fyrwald

CEO, International Flavors & Fragrances Inc.

Yes

Mary Lynne Hedley, Ph.D.

Senior Scientific Fellow, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard

Yes

Jamere Jackson

Chief Financial Officer, AutoZone, Inc.

Yes

Kimberly H. Johnson

Former Chief Operating Officer, T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.

Yes

William G. Kaelin Jr., M.D.

Professor of Medicine, Harvard Medical School; Nobel laureate

Yes

Jon Moeller

Executive Chairman, The Procter & Gamble Company

Yes

Gabrielle Sulzberger

Senior Managing Director, Centerbridge Partners, L.P.

Yes

Major Shareholders

HolderShares (M)Approx. % of shares outstandingNotes

Lilly Endowment Inc.

91.9–92.2

9.8–10.3

Largest single holder; sole voting and dispositive power; independent of company management

The Vanguard Group

80.4–82.0

9.0–9.1

Passive index holdings

BlackRock, Inc.

65.9–66.8

7.3–7.4

Passive index holdings

Capital Research Global Investors

25.1

approx. 2.8

Increased holding 20.9% in one quarter

Competitive Landscape

Peer Comparison FY2025

MetricEli Lilly (FY2025)Novo Nordisk (FY2025)

Revenue (USD Bn, approx.)

65.2

~46

Revenue growth (%)

44.7—

Gross margin (%)

83.0—

Net margin (%)

31.7—

R&D as % of revenue

20.5—

Market capitalisation (Sep 2026, USD Bn)

~1015

—

Recent Developments

--

Company Snapshot

$65,179M

Revenue

50,000

Employees

$1,015,000M

Market Cap

1876

Founded

Indiana, US

Headquarters

SWOT Analysis

Strengths

  • Revenue growth without peer at scale. FY2025 revenue growth of 45% was, per Lilly's own proxy disclosure, triple that of any other top-25 biopharma company; H1 2026 growth was 51%.
  • Gross margin of 86.3% (non-GAAP) in Q2 2026, expanded 130 basis points year-on-year despite a 13% decline in realised prices — evidence that manufacturing scale-up is delivering.
  • Modality breadth in the core category. Marketed dual agonist, marketed oral small-molecule GLP-1 (Foundayo, approved 1 April 2026), Phase-3-complete triple agonist (retatrutide, BLA planned Q1 2027) and Phase 2 amylin agonist (eloralintide).
  • Credit strength enabling aggressive investment. Moody's Aa3 with positive outlook (December 2025); net debt/EBITDA of 1.15x at FY2025; interest coverage of 46.9x.
  • Policy settlement secured. The 6 November 2025 agreement delivers three years of tariff relief and exemption from future pricing mandates, in exchange for MFN commitments — a position no other manufacturer has matched in scope.
  • Manufacturing capacity moat. More than $50 billion committed since 2020 including at least $27 billion announced in November 2025; construction in progress of $13.0 billion at FY2025 equals half of gross PP&E.
  • Governance quality. 91.7% board independence, a separate lead independent director, and 96% prior-year say-on-pay support.

Weaknesses

  • Extreme product concentration. Tirzepatide's $36.5 billion in FY2025 was 56% of total revenue; cardiometabolic health overall was 74%.
  • Cash conversion has deteriorated sharply. The cash conversion cycle lengthened from 202 days (FY2021) to 376 days (FY2025), with days inventory outstanding at 454 days.
  • Free cash flow conversion is poor relative to earnings. FY2025 FCF of $8.97 billion against net income of $20.64 billion — a 43% conversion rate — because capex reached $7.84 billion.
  • Neuroscience is shrinking. Revenue fell from $2,879 million (FY2023) to $1,391 million (FY2025), a 52% decline, notwithstanding the Kisunla launch.
  • Oncology growth has stalled. 7.1% in FY2025 against 31.5% in FY2024, with U.S. Verzenio revenue declining 4% in Q4 2025.
  • Acquisition accounting obscures earnings. Acquired IPR&D charges of $3.03 per share in Q2 2026 alone fully offset a $2.78 underlying guidance raise; the FY2023 earnings decline of 16% on 19.6% revenue growth is the same pattern.
  • Capital-allocation execution risk already evidenced. An intangible-asset impairment was recorded in Q4 2025 on assets acquired through POINT BioPharma, a $1.4 billion 2023 transaction.

Opportunities

  • Under-penetration of the addressable population. Management states fewer than one in ten people who could benefit from GLP-1 therapy currently receive one.
  • Medicare and Medicaid coverage of anti-obesity medication for the first time, with a $50 monthly copay cap from as early as 1 April 2026 and state Medicaid programmes able to expand access.
  • Retatrutide's multi-indication package. Weight loss of up to an average of 71.2 lbs plus benefit in OSA and knee osteoarthritis pain, with a complete data package supporting three simultaneous global registrations.
  • Combination lifecycle management. The Taltz + Zepbound Phase 3b result (January 2026) establishes a template for pairing incretins with existing brands across immunology and beyond.
  • Oral step-down economics. Two trials (December 2025 and May 2026) showed patients maintaining weight loss after switching from injectable incretins to oral therapy — enabling a lower-cost-to-serve maintenance channel.
  • Emerging-market volume. Mounjaro's NRDL listing in China drove 172% ex-U.S. Mounjaro growth in Q2 2026, a template replicable across other volume markets.
  • Genetic medicine optionality. VERVE-102 reduced LDL-C by up to 62% with a single dose, supporting a one-time cardiovascular treatment.

Threats

  • Price erosion is accelerating. Realised prices fell 5% (Q4 2025), then 13% (Q2 2026) company-wide, with ex-U.S. prices down 36%.
  • Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide reached the market first (approved 22 December 2025, launched 5 January 2026) and took roughly one-third of new-to-brand obesity prescriptions within eight weeks.
  • Antitrust exposure from compounders. Strive Compounding Pharmacy filed suit against Lilly and Novo Nordisk on 14 January 2026 (W.D. Tex.), alleging exclusive telehealth agreements foreclosed compounded competition.
  • 340B litigation is going against Lilly. The Second Circuit denied Lilly's petition for panel rehearing in October 2025 and issued an amended opinion reaching the same result; the Mosaic Health antitrust class action was revived by the Second Circuit and remains live.
  • Insulin pricing litigation from consumers, states, counties, tribes, school districts, wholesalers and payers has been accumulating since 2017 with claims spanning consumer protection, fraud, racketeering and antitrust.
  • IRA small-molecule penalty. Lilly itself states in the FY2025 10-K that the nine-year negotiation timeline for NDA-approved medicines "reduces the attractiveness of investment in small molecule innovation" — a direct issue for orforglipron.
  • Political reversibility. The tariff relief obtained in November 2025 runs for three years; the pricing framework depends on the continuity of a specific executive-branch policy posture.
  • Valuation leaves no room for disappointment. At 38.2x trailing and 27.9x forward earnings and 30x book value, the equity discounts continued exceptional execution.

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Key Developments

DateEventSignificance
Apr 2025Lilly sues Strive Pharmacy over compounded tirzepatide productsOpening of a sustained enforcement campaign against mass compounders
Apr 2025Lilly sues Empower Clinic Services over compounded tirzepatideThe most consequential compounding case in the sector
Jul 2025Verve Therapeutics acquisition completedEntry into in vivo base editing
7 Aug 2025Q2 2025 results: revenue $15.56bn (+38%); FY guidance raised to $60–62bnPositive orforglipron obesity data, SURPASS-CVOT and Jaypirca head-to-head data disclosed
Q3 2025FDA approves Inluriyo (imlunestrant) for ER+/HER2- advanced breast cancerFirst new oncology brand in the current cycle
Oct 2025New manufacturing facilities announced in Virginia and Texas; Puerto Rico expansionPart of the >$50bn U.S. build-out
30 Oct 2025Q3 2025 results: revenue +54%; FY guidance raised to $63.0–63.5bn; EPS guidance to $21.80–22.50 reportedFour additional positive orforglipron Phase 3 trials
3 Nov 2025USD 3 billion European oral medicine manufacturing facility announcedEx-U.S. oral capacity for orforglipron
6 Nov 2025Agreement with U.S. government on obesity medicine access and MFN pricing; three years of tariff relief; at least USD 27bn incremental U.S. investmentThe defining policy event of the period; converts pricing risk into volume opportunity and removes tariff exposure
6 Nov 2025Two new Executive Committee members appointed; senior roles expandedOrganisational preparation for the next product wave
6 Nov 2025Eloralintide Phase 2 data: meaningful weight loss, favourable tolerabilityEstablishes Lilly in the amylin class
19 Nov 2025Lilly Gateway Labs Philadelphia announcedEcosystem/incubator expansion
3 Dec 2025FDA approves expanded Jaypirca indication in relapsed/refractory CLL/SLL post-covalent BTK inhibitorBroadens the fastest-growing oncology asset
7 Dec 2025Jaypirca meets primary endpoint in head-to-head Phase 3 versus ibrutinibFirst non-covalent BTK inhibitor to beat a covalent competitor head-to-head
8 Dec 2025Carolyn Bertozzi returns to the board of directorsAdds a Nobel-laureate chemist to the Science and Technology Committee
9 Dec 2025USD 6 billion API facility announced in AlabamaLargest single site announcement of the period
9 Dec 2025Adverum tender offer and acquisition completedOcular gene therapy
9 Dec 2025Jaypirca reduces risk of progression or death by 80% versus chemoimmunotherapy in treatment-naïve CLL/SLLPotential front-line expansion
11 Dec 2025Retatrutide delivers up to 71.2 lbs average weight loss plus osteoarthritis pain relief in first successful Phase 3Establishes the efficacy ceiling for the next generation
12 Dec 2025Updated Inluriyo data reinforce monotherapy and combination efficacyLaunch support
12 Dec 2025Moody's revises outlook to positive at Aa3Credit strengthening amid heavy investment
18 Dec 2025Orforglipron maintains weight loss after switching from injectable incretinsKey commercial-strategy readout: enables step-down from injectable to oral
22 Dec 2025Competitor event: FDA approves Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide (Wegovy pill)Novo takes a three-month head start in oral obesity
7 Jan 2026Agreement to acquire Ventyx BiosciencesOral inflammation
8 Jan 2026Taltz + Zepbound combination delivers superior efficacy in Phase 3b psoriatic arthritis with obesityFirst proof of the incretin-combination lifecycle strategy
14 Jan 2026Strive Compounding Pharmacy files antitrust suit against Lilly and Novo Nordisk (W.D. Tex.)Counter-offensive in the compounding war; alleges exclusive telehealth agreements foreclosed competition
Jan 2026Pennsylvania injectable medicine and device facility selectedContinued U.S. build-out
Jan 2026NVIDIA and Lilly announce Co-Innovation AI LabFlagship AI partnership
4 Feb 2026FY2025 results: revenue $65.179bn (+45%), net income $20.640bn (+95%), diluted EPS $22.95; FY2026 guidance $80–83bn revenue, $33.50–35.00 non-GAAP EPSCompletion of the transformational year
6 Mar / 20 Mar 2026DEF 14A filed; Ricks FY2025 compensation disclosed at $36.7 million (+25.5%)Pay ratio 293:1; bonus paid at 218% of target
Mar 2026Ventyx acquisition completed ($1.1bn net of cash)–
17 Mar 2026HSBC downgrades LLY from Hold to ReduceNotable bearish outlier amid overwhelmingly positive sell-side coverage
31 Mar 2026Agreement to acquire Centessa Pharmaceuticals for up to $7.8bnLargest 2026 transaction; entry into sleep-wake disorders
1 Apr 2026FDA approves Foundayo (orforglipron) — first oral small-molecule GLP-1 for obesity; first NME under the National Priority Voucher programmeThe most important approval since Mounjaro
6 Apr 2026Foundayo shipping begins via LillyDirect at $149/month lowest doseDirect-to-patient-first launch model
Apr 2026Q1 2026 results: revenue $19.8bn (+56%); reported EPS $8.26 (+170%); FY guidance raised to $82–85bnMounjaro +125%, Zepbound +80%
Apr 2026Kelonia Therapeutics acquisition ($3.25bn upfront, up to $7bn)In vivo gene delivery
27 Apr 2026Ajax Therapeutics acquisition (up to $2.3bn) — sixth deal of 2026Myelofibrosis
5 May 2026Omvoh demonstrates durable ulcerative colitis disease clearance through four yearsDifferentiation against IL-23 competitors
6 May 2026Additional $4.5bn committed across Indiana sites; first dedicated genetic medicine facility opened–
12 May 2026Foundayo and lower-dose Zepbound maintain weight loss after switching from higher-dose injectablesReinforces oral step-down strategy
21 May 2026Retatrutide delivers powerful weight loss in pivotal Phase 3 obesity trial–
25 May 2026VERVE-102 reduces PCSK9 by up to 88% and LDL-C by up to 62% with a single doseValidates the base-editing platform
26 May 2026Three acquisitions announced to build an infectious disease portfolio (~$4bn combined)New therapeutic area
28 May 2026Foundayo and Zepbound "now covered for millions of Americans"Formulary access milestone
31 May 2026Retevmo demonstrates 83% reduction in recurrence or death risk as adjuvant therapy in RET fusion-positive early lung cancerPotential label expansion
6 Jun 2026Retatrutide improves weight, A1C, knee OA pain and OSA across the programmeCompletes the multi-indication package
8 Jun 2026Foundayo delivers superior A1C control and weight loss in three pivotal T2D trialsSupports the T2D filing
9 Jun 2026FDA approves Ebglyss for one maintenance dose every eight weeksConvenience differentiation in atopic dermatitis
14 Jun 2026Jaypirca reduces progression or death risk by 45% added to venetoclax time-limited regimen–
16 Jun 20264E Therapeutics acquisition completed–
24 Jun 2026Centessa acquisition completed–
26 Jun 2026CHMP recommends Jaypirca for EU approval in CLL across all linesFollowed by European Commission approval
16 Jul 2026Agreement to acquire AtaiBeckley for $2.8bn plus CVRs to $3.8bnEntry into psychedelics for treatment-resistant depression
5 Aug 2026Q2 2026 results: revenue $22.974bn (+48%), net income $7.095bn (+25%), EPS $7.94; FY2026 revenue guidance raised to $85–87bn; non-GAAP EPS narrowed to $35.50–36.50Underlying raise of $2.78 offset by $3.03 of acquired IPR&D
Aug 2026Merida Biosciences acquisition (~$2.875bn) — thirteenth deal of 2026Autoimmune and allergic disorders
Sep 2026AtaiBeckley acquisition completed–
14 Sep 2026Ilya Yuffa to present at the Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference–

Financial Performance

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Revenue

4 charts
Income Statement: Revenue & Gross Profit: Revenue rose from USD 28,318 Mn in FY2021 to USD 65,179 Mn in FY2025.
ELI Lilly and Company — Income Statement: Revenue & Gross Profit
Series (USD Mn)FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025
Revenue28,31828,54134,12445,04365,179
Cost of sales6,9736,6307,0828,41811,052
Gross profit21,34521,91227,04236,62554,127

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