Nutrien Ltd Overview
Nutrien is the world's largest crop-input company by integrated scope. It combines the world's largest potash capacity with a top-tier North American nitrogen franchise, a smaller phosphate business, and the world's largest agricultural retail network, Nutrien Ag Solutions. Six Saskatchewan potash mines give it about 20% of global potash nameplate capacity (2025 AIF). Its gas-advantaged North American nitrogen plants supply ammonia, urea, ESN® and upgraded solutions to agricultural and industrial buyers. The retail network of about 1,700–1,800 locations across the US, Canada, Australia and South America sells nutrients, crop protection, seed, services and financing to roughly half a million grower accounts, with a growing proprietary-products margin layer. The investment case rests on a cost-advantaged, long-life upstream asset base, earnings that are less volatile than pure-play producers because of retail, and a 2024–2026 "simplify and focus" program. That program is exiting non-core assets (Profertil, Sinofert, Trinidad and New Madrid nitrogen, with Phosphate and Brazil retail under review) to lift free cash flow and shareholder returns.
Company's own description (FY2025 annual report / Q2 2026 MD&A). Nutrien describes itself as a leading global provider of crop inputs and services. It says it operates a world-class network of production, distribution and ag retail facilities positioned to serve farmers efficiently. Its stated vision is to be the leading global agricultural solutions provider, delivering superior shareholder value through safe and sustainable operations. The strategy rests on three priorities: simplify and focus, operational excellence, and disciplined, intentional capital allocation. Management says the strategy is designed to produce low-risk, structural free-cash-flow growth and reliable, growing cash returns to shareholders.
Business model. Nutrien is vertically integrated across the crop-nutrient value chain:
Upstream (Potash, Nitrogen, Phosphate): mining and chemical manufacturing of the three primary crop macronutrients. In 2025 the company sold about 27.5 million tonnes of manufactured fertilizer from plants in Canada, the US and Trinidad (2025 AIF).
Midstream: global sales, freight, transportation and distribution, reported inside each upstream segment. Offshore potash is sold exclusively through Canpotex, the export marketing joint venture Nutrien shares 50/50 with Mosaic.
Downstream (Retail / Nutrien Ag Solutions): direct-to-grower distribution of crop nutrients, crop protection products, seed and merchandise. Retail also provides agronomy services (application, soil sampling, variable-rate prescriptions, crop monitoring by more than 4,200 crop consultants) and financing through Nutrien Financial. It manufactures about 1,700 proprietary products at eight formulation facilities.
Revenue model mix. Nutrien is overwhelmingly a product company. Services and financing are small but higher margin.
Derived from FY2025 Q4 release segment and product-line tables. Retail product sales = 7,285 + 6,105 + 2,128 + 875. Nutrien Financial net = 376 − 93. Upstream third-party = 3,571 + 3,807 + 1,660. No subscription or licensing revenue of significance is disclosed.
Value-chain position. Nutrien is one of very few companies present from mine and plant gate through to the farm gate. That integration lets it capture producer economics in tight markets (upstream generated about 74% of FY2025 segment adjusted EBITDA) and distribution economics in weak markets (Retail EBITDA is comparatively stable at US$1.4–2.3 billion through the cycle).
Customer types.
End-markets served: global grain and oilseed production (the main driver), livestock (Australia), industrial nitrogen (mining, chemicals, diesel exhaust fluid), feed phosphates and industrial phosphoric acid.
Independent characterization. Nutrien is best understood as a cash-generative, cost-advantaged potash franchise and an efficient North American nitrogen producer, attached to a large, lower-margin but steady distribution business. Pure-play peers cannot replicate the integration, but it has historically weighed on valuation through retail capital intensity, Brazil losses and conglomerate complexity. Under CEO Ken Seitz (since 2022), the company has shifted from growth acquisitions (2018–2022) to portfolio pruning, cost-out and capital returns. The FY2025 results (adjusted EBITDA US$6.05 billion, +13%; free cash flow about US$2.0 billion) and H1 2026 results (adjusted EBITDA US$3.54 billion, +6%) suggest that pivot is gaining traction. The open question is whether the Phosphate review and the 30 November 2026 Investor Day produce a structurally simpler potash–nitrogen–retail company.
Strategy
Stated strategy (FY2025 annual report and Q2 2026 MD&A). Three anchors underpin the strategy:
Simplify and focus: exit lower-return and non-core assets and concentrate capital on North American upstream assets and core retail.
Operational excellence: reliability, automation, debottlenecking and cost leadership.
Disciplined, intentional capital allocation: sustain the asset base safely, make targeted low-risk growth investments, and grow dividends and buybacks.
Management's stated goal is low-risk, structural growth in free cash flow.
2024 Investor Day targets (June 2024, for 2026) and status.
Strategic initiatives in the last 24 months.
2026 guidance (as of 5 August 2026).
Medium-term financial targets beyond 2026 are expected at the Investor Day on 30 November 2026 (Toronto).
ESG commitments. The company keeps a sustainability report and climate disclosure, with board oversight moved to the CG&N Committee in August 2025.
Products & Services
Retail (Nutrien Ag Solutions)
| Product line | Description | FY2025 sales (USD Mn) | FY2025 gross margin (USD Mn) | Proprietary share of line margin FY2025 (%) | Target customer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crop nutrients | Dry and liquid N, P, K, micronutrients, blends; proprietary nutritionals and biostimulants | 7,285 | 1,424 | 32 | Row-crop and specialty growers |
| Crop protection | Herbicides, fungicides, insecticides, adjuvants; proprietary formulations | 6,105 | 1,590 | 32 | Growers and custom applicators |
| Seed | Third-party branded seed plus proprietary seed brands | 2,128 | 408 | 34 | Corn, soybean, cotton and canola growers |
| Services and other | Custom application, soil sampling, agronomy, livestock agency (Australia) | 944 | 750 | — | Growers and livestock producers |
| Merchandise | Fencing, animal health, farm supplies, fuel (mainly Australia) | 875 | 148 | 9 | Farm operations |
| Nutrien Financial | Grower credit for US and Australian branches; FY2025 adjusted net interest margin 5.4%; net receivables US$3.1B at year-end 2025 | 376 (gross) | 376 | — | Grower accounts |
| Brand / platform | Category | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Loveland Products | Crop protection, adjuvants, nutritionals | Nutrien's core proprietary formulation brand (US) |
| Dyna-Gro | Seed | Proprietary corn, soybean and cotton seed (US) |
| Proven Seed | Seed | Proprietary canola, soybean and cereal seed (Canada) |
| Agrichem | Nutritionals / biostimulants | Brazilian proprietary nutritionals business |
| ESN® Smart Nitrogen | Controlled-release urea | Polymer-coated urea; reported with Nitrogen ("Urea and ESN®") |
| Nutrien Ag Solutions digital platform | Digital agronomy and e-commerce | Grower portal for ordering, field data and payments; investment priority in 2026 capex |
| Nutrien Financial | Finance | In-house credit for retail customers |
Proprietary products generated US$1,104M of gross margin in FY2025 (24% of Retail gross margin), up from US$1,060M (23%) in FY2024. In H1 2026 the proprietary share reached 30% (US$843M), and crop-protection proprietary margin rose 34% year on year.
Named brands and platforms (from company materials and legacy filings; launch years not consistently disclosed):
About 1,700 proprietary crop nutrient, crop protection and seed products in total (FY2025 annual report). Individual SKU pricing is not disclosed.
Potash
| Product | Specification / use | FY2025 volume (kt) | FY2025 avg. net price (USD/t) | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Granular MOP (KCl) | About 60% K2O; for direct application and blending | Included in 14,253 total | North America 286; offshore 235 | North America direct; offshore via Canpotex |
| Standard / soluble MOP | Finer particle size for compaction, NPK manufacturing and fertigation | Included above | — | Offshore, especially Asia |
| Industrial and feed potash | Chemical, de-icing and feed uses | — | — | Industrial buyers |
Nitrogen
| Product | FY2025 volume (kt) | FY2025 avg. net price (USD/t) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ammonia | 2,420 | 422 | Direct application and industrial; Trinidad exports ended October 2025 |
| Urea and ESN® | 3,099 | 490 | ESN is a premium controlled-release product |
| Solutions, nitrates and sulfates (UAN, AN, AS) | 5,369 | 268 | Fastest-growing category; debottlenecks at Redwater and Geismar |
| Total manufactured | 10,888 | 365 | Fertilizer 6,425 kt; industrial and feed 4,463 kt |
Phosphate
| Product | FY2025 volume (kt) | FY2025 avg. net price (USD/t) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fertilizer (MAP, DAP, liquids) | 1,646 | 677 | Aurora and White Springs |
| Industrial and feed (purified acid, feed phosphates) | 717 | 835 | Higher-value niche; more stable pricing |
| Total manufactured | 2,363 | 725 | P2O5 operating rate 80% in FY2025 |
Pricing model. Upstream products sell at market (spot or short-term contract) referenced to global benchmarks: Brazil and SE Asia CFR potash, NOLA and Tampa ammonia, NOLA urea. Offshore potash revenue is recognized at the Canpotex netback. Retail sells at list and contract prices with seasonal prepayment programs (customer prepayments concentrated in December and January). Price sensitivities from FY2025 guidance: ±US$25/t in potash = ±US$280M EBITDA; urea and ESN ±US$65M; solutions, nitrates and sulfates ±US$135M; ammonia ±US$35M; ±US$1/MMBtu NYMEX gas = ±US$180M.
Financial Narrative
Income statement
FY2021–FY2022 are from the 2022 annual report. FY2023 sales and net earnings are from the FY2023 40-F; FY2023 gross margin is derived (sales 29,056 − freight 974 − COGS 19,608). FY2021 growth is versus FY2020 sales of 20,908. FY2024 is restated and FY2025 is per the FY2025 Q4 release.
FY2022 earnings before tax were US$10,246M and FY2023 were US$1,952M (FY2023 40-F). FY2021 EBIT was US$4,781M (2021 annual report).
FY2024–FY2025 are verified in the FY2025 statement of equity.
Revenue CAGR FY2021–FY2025: −0.7% per year (derived). Revenue is essentially flat across the cycle; the 2022 spike reflects the price shock from the Russia–Ukraine war.
Commentary. The five-year arc is a classic fertilizer cycle. Potash and nitrogen prices spiked in 2022: Potash adjusted EBITDA reached US$5.8B and consolidated net earnings US$7.7B. Normalization in 2023–2024 cut earnings by more than 90% from peak, compounded by impairments (US$774M in 2023; US$530M in 2024), a US$360M FX loss in 2024 (Brazil derivatives and Argentine hyperinflation), and US$151M of asset-retirement charges on non-operating sites. FY2025 marks an inflection:
-
adjusted EBITDA rose 13% on higher potash, urea and UAN prices and record upstream volumes (27.5 Mt);
-
controllable costs fell (selling plus G&A down US$159M);
-
the FX drag disappeared after the Argentine functional currency changed to USD;
-
the US$301M Profertil gain lifted reported net earnings to US$2.30B.
Gross margin recovered to 31%. H1 2026 extended the trend (adjusted EBITDA +6%, diluted EPS US$2.80 vs US$2.52), although Q2 2026 alone was slightly down year on year because of lower nitrogen volumes after the Trinidad shutdown and a sulfur-cost spike in Phosphate.
Balance sheet
Historical cash balances: FY2021 499; FY2022 901; FY2023 941. FY2023 total equity was 25,201.
Interim (30 June 2026): total assets 53,555; cash 921; short-term debt 527; current LTD 1,434; long-term debt 9,427; leases 1,340; equity 25,938; receivables 8,687 (seasonal peak). Long-term debt fair value was US$10,400M against a carrying value of US$10,861M.
Goodwill by unit (FY2025): Retail North America 7,006; Retail Australia 587; Potash 154; Nitrogen 4,389. Retail North America headroom was only US$2.9B. Impairment would be triggered by a 1.2-point rise in the discount rate (base 7.7%), a 1.8-point fall in terminal growth (base 2.3%) or a 12% EBITDA shortfall. This is a material sensitivity.
Cash flow
Cash used for dividends and buybacks was US$2,080M in FY2021 and US$5,551M in FY2022. Note that the company's own free-cash-flow definition may differ from this simple CFO-minus-capex measure.
H1 2026: CFO 1,633 (+12%); capex 816; dividends 528; buybacks 320; total returned 848.
Ratios
ROIC (company-reported): 15% in FY2021 and 26% in FY2022; later years n/d. Cash conversion cycle: n/d (not reported; retail working capital is highly seasonal, and Retail average working capital to sales was 22% in FY2025 vs 20% in FY2024).
Ratio commentary. Leverage improved meaningfully in 2025: net debt to adjusted EBITDA fell from 2.2x to 1.9x and coverage doubled to 5.4x. This was driven by EBITDA recovery and about US$900M of divestiture proceeds rather than absolute debt reduction; financial debt fell US$716M. ROE of 9% is below the cost of equity but recovering. The structural drag on returns is the US$13.8B goodwill and intangibles base from the merger and the retail roll-up.
Unlock Company Financials
Unlock this company profile to view its financial data.
View Subscription PlansFinancial Detail
Segment Overview
| Segment | Contents | Key products / services |
|---|---|---|
Retail (Nutrien Ag Solutions) | About 1,700–1,800 locations in the US, Canada, Australia and South America; 8 formulation plants; Nutrien Financial | Crop nutrients, crop protection, seed, merchandise, application and agronomy services, livestock services (Australia), grower financing, proprietary brands |
Potash | Six Saskatchewan mines; North American sales; offshore sales via Canpotex | Granular and standard muriate of potash (KCl), industrial and feed-grade potash |
Nitrogen | 11 Canadian and US facilities (New Madrid ceased end-2025); Trinidad (shut indefinitely October 2026); Profertil equity stake until December 2025 | Ammonia, urea, ESN® controlled-release urea, UAN solutions, nitrates, ammonium sulfate, industrial nitrogen |
Phosphate | Aurora (North Carolina) and White Springs (Florida) | Fertilizer (MAP, DAP, liquids), industrial and feed phosphates, purified phosphoric acid |
Corporate and Others | Head office, non-core businesses, purchase for resale | Gains and losses on divestitures, share-based compensation, FX |
Segment third-party sales (USD Mn)
| Segment third-party sales (USD Mn) | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
Retail | 19,542 | 17,832 | 17,601 |
Potash | 3,735 | 3,008 | 3,571 |
Nitrogen | 3,804 | 3,327 | 3,807 |
Phosphate | 1,975 | 1,610 | 1,660 |
Corporate and Others | 0 | 195 | 246 |
Consolidated | 29,056 | 25,972 | 26,885 |
Segment net sales (USD Mn)
| Segment net sales (USD Mn) | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
Retail | 19,542 | 17,832 | 17,620 |
Potash | 3,759 | 2,989 | 3,593 |
Nitrogen | 4,207 | 3,576 | 4,187 |
Phosphate | 1,993 | 1,657 | 1,734 |
Segment adjusted EBITDA (USD Mn)
| Segment adjusted EBITDA (USD Mn) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Retail | 1,939 | 2,293 | 1,696 | 1,736 |
Potash | 2,736 | 5,769 | 1,848 | 2,254 |
Nitrogen | 2,308 | 3,931 | 1,880 | 2,147 |
Phosphate | 540 | 594 | 384 | 382 |
Corporate and Others | -1,202 | -417 | -452 | -427 |
Segment EBIT (USD Mn)
| Segment EBIT (USD Mn) | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
Retail | 590 | 1,002 |
Potash | 1,239 | 1,594 |
Nitrogen | 1,096 | 1,531 |
Phosphate | 94 | 97 |
Corporate and Others | -1,162 | -442 |
Eliminations | -1 | -46 |
Consolidated | 1,856 | 3,736 |
Segment Revenue
| Segment | Adj. EBITDA margin on net sales FY2024 (%) | FY2025 (%) | Net sales YoY FY2025 (%) | Adj. EBITDA YoY FY2025 (%) | Share of third-party sales FY2025 (%) | Share of segment adj. EBITDA FY2025 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Retail | 9.5 | 9.9 | -1.2 | 2.4 | 65.5 | 26.6 |
Potash | 61.8 | 62.7 | 20.2 | 22.0 | 13.3 | 34.6 |
Nitrogen | 52.6 | 51.3 | 17.1 | 14.2 | 14.2 | 32.9 |
Phosphate | 23.2 | 22.0 | 4.6 | -0.5 | 6.2 | 5.9 |
Segment Revenue (Half-Yearly)
| Segment | H1 2025 sales | H1 2026 sales | H1 2025 adj. EBITDA | H1 2026 adj. EBITDA | EBITDA change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Retail | 11,049 | 11,910 | 1,195 | 1,239 | 3.7 |
Potash (net sales) | 1,735 | 1,979 | 1,076 | 1,236 | 14.9 |
Nitrogen (net sales) | 2,072 | 2,168 | 1,070 | 1,117 | 4.4 |
Phosphate (net sales) | 756 | 953 | 153 | 80 | -47.7 |
Key Financials and Margin Analysis (%)
| Metric (USD Mn unless stated) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sales | 27,712 | 37,884 | 29,056 | 25,972 | 26,885 |
Sales growth YoY (%) | 32.5 | 36.7 | -23.3 | -10.6 | 3.5 |
Gross margin | 9,409 | 15,424 | 8,474 | 7,530 | 8,347 |
Net earnings | 3,179 | 7,687 | 1,282 | 700 | 2,297 |
Diluted EPS (USD) | 5.52 | 14.18 | 2.53 | 1.36 | 4.66 |
Basic EPS (USD) | 5.53 | 14.22 | 2.53 | 1.36 | 4.66 |
Gross margin (%) | 34.0 | 40.7 | 29.2 | 29.0 | 31.0 |
Net margin (%) | 11.5 | 20.3 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 8.5 |
Adjusted EBITDA (USD Mn)
| Adjusted EBITDA (USD Mn) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA | 7,126 | 12,170 | 5,355 | 6,046 |
Adjusted EBITDA margin (%) | 25.7 | 32.1 | 20.6 | 22.5 |
Adjusted EPS (USD) | 6.23 | 13.19 | 3.47 | 4.56 |
Income Statement and Margin Analysis (%)
| Detailed P&L (USD Mn) | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
Freight, transportation and distribution | 956 | 936 |
Cost of goods sold | 17,486 | 17,602 |
Selling expenses | 3,435 | 3,320 |
General and administrative | 644 | 600 |
Provincial mining taxes | 255 | 372 |
Share-based compensation | 37 | 163 |
Impairment of assets | 530 | 0 |
FX loss net of derivatives | 360 | 9 |
Gain on sale of Profertil | 0 | -301 |
Other expenses | 413 | 448 |
EBIT | 1,856 | 3,736 |
EBIT margin (%) | 7.1 | 13.9 |
Finance costs | 720 | 687 |
Earnings before income taxes | 1,136 | 3,049 |
Income tax expense | 436 | 752 |
Effective tax rate (%) | 38 | 25 |
EBITDA (IFRS-based, unadjusted) | 4,195 | 6,105 |
Depreciation and amortization | 2,339 | 2,369 |
Unlock Company Financials
Unlock this company profile to view its financial data.
View Subscription PlansDividends declared per share (USD)
| Dividends declared per share (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividends per share | 1.84 | 1.92 | 2.12 | 2.16 | 2.18 |
Balance Sheet
| Metric (USD Mn) | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
Total assets | 51,840 | 52,301 |
Cash and cash equivalents | 853 | 701 |
Receivables | 5,390 | 5,675 |
Inventories | 6,148 | 6,977 |
Current assets | 13,792 | 14,749 |
Current liabilities | 12,045 | 11,041 |
Working capital | 1,747 | 3,708 |
Short-term debt | 1,534 | 873 |
Current portion of long-term debt | 1,037 | 513 |
Long-term debt | 8,881 | 9,350 |
Total financial debt (excl. leases) | 11,452 | 10,736 |
Lease liabilities (current + non-current) | 1,355 | 1,283 |
Total debt incl. leases | 12,807 | 12,019 |
Net debt incl. leases | 11,954 | 11,318 |
Goodwill | 12,043 | 12,136 |
Intangible assets | 1,819 | 1,667 |
Goodwill and intangibles | 13,862 | 13,803 |
Property, plant and equipment | 22,604 | 22,747 |
Total shareholders' equity | 24,442 | 25,365 |
Cash Flow
| Metric (USD Mn) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operating activities | 3,886 | 8,110 | 5,066 | 3,535 | 4,007 |
Dividends & Capital Returns
| Metric (USD Mn) | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
Capital expenditures | 2,154 | 2,005 |
Free cash flow (CFO − capex, derived) | 1,381 | 2,002 |
Dividends paid | 1,060 | 1,061 |
Share repurchases | 184 | 551 |
Cash returned (dividends + buybacks) | 1,244 | 1,612 |
Proceeds from sale of investments | 138 | 838 |
Lease principal repayments | 402 | 419 |
Returns & Leverage Ratios (%) and Financial Ratios (x)
| Ratio | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
ROE (attributable earnings / avg. equity, %) | 2.7 | 9.1 |
ROA (net earnings / year-end assets, %) | 1.4 | 4.4 |
Current ratio (x) | 1.15 | 1.34 |
Debt / equity incl. leases (x) | 0.52 | 0.47 |
Net debt / adjusted EBITDA incl. leases (x) | 2.23 | 1.87 |
Interest coverage, EBIT / finance costs (x) | 2.6 | 5.4 |
Asset turnover, sales / year-end assets (x) | 0.50 | 0.51 |
Revenue by Region
| Region / country (USD Mn) | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
United States | 17,656 | 15,899 | 16,326 |
Canada | 3,111 | 2,872 | 2,890 |
Australia | 3,389 | 3,305 | 3,302 |
Canpotex (offshore potash) | 2,076 | 1,658 | 2,267 |
South America incl. Brazil and Argentina (derived) | 1,953 | 1,657 | 1,402 |
Europe | 314 | 317 | 386 |
Other | 557 | 264 | 312 |
Total | 29,056 | 25,972 | 26,885 |
Geographic Revenue
| Region | FY2024 YoY (%) | FY2025 YoY (%) | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
United States | -10.0 | 2.7 | 2024 nutrient price deflation; 2025 recovery in nutrient prices and nitrogen upgrade volumes |
Canada | -7.7 | 0.6 | Stable retail; potash domestic flat |
Australia | -2.5 | -0.1 | Dry conditions in 2025; strong livestock and canola seed in H1 2026 |
Canpotex (offshore potash) | -20.1 | 36.7 | Record offshore volumes (9.6 Mt) and +31% offshore net price (US$235 vs US$180 per tonne) |
South America (derived) | -15.2 | -15.4 | Deliberate Brazil retail rationalization and exits from Argentina, Chile and Uruguay retail |
Europe | 1.0 | 21.8 | Nitrogen and industrial exports |
Potash sales by geography (USD Mn)
| Potash sales by geography (USD Mn) | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
North America manufactured | 1,719 | 1,727 |
Offshore manufactured (Canpotex) | 1,658 | 2,264 |
Canpotex sales mix by market (% of volumes)
| Canpotex sales mix by market (% of volumes) | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
Latin America | 40 | 39 |
Other Asian markets | 28 | 29 |
China | 13 | 11 |
India | 7 | 6 |
Other markets | 12 | 15 |
Retail crop nutrient volumes (kt)
| Retail crop nutrient volumes (kt) | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
North America | 8,547 | 8,502 |
International | 3,715 | 3,358 |
Valuation Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Close, 2 October 2026 | US$70.84 |
Start of 2026 | US$61.72 |
YTD 2026 change | +14.8% |
12-month change | About +19% |
2026 YTD range | US$58.74 – US$85.36 |
1-month change (to 2 October 2026) | About −11.8% |
All-time high | US$117.25 (2022) |
Valuation Multiples
| Multiple | Nutrien | Basis |
|---|---|---|
Market cap (USD Bn) | 33.8 | 477.2M shares |
Enterprise value (USD Bn) | 45.6 | Plus net debt incl. leases of US$11.8B at 30 June 2026 (seasonally favorable) |
P/E (TTM diluted EPS US$4.94) | 14.3x | FY2025 EPS 4.66 − H1 2025 2.52 + H1 2026 2.80 |
EV / adjusted EBITDA (TTM US$6.24B) | 7.3x | 6,046 − 3,338 + 3,535 |
EV / sales (TTM US$28.2B) | 1.6x | 26,885 − 15,538 + 16,858 |
P/B (equity US$25.9B) | 1.3x | 30 June 2026 |
Dividend yield (US$2.20 annualized) | 3.1% | — |
Firm / Source Details
| Firm / source | View | Date |
|---|---|---|
CIBC (Hamir Patel) | Outperformer; target trimmed to US$84 from US$85 | August 2026 |
Morgan Stanley | Upgrade on a "tighter for longer" potash outlook | January 2026 |
Morningstar | Fair value C$103; shares viewed as fairly valued (3-star) | February 2026 |
Dividend per share (USD)
| Dividend per share (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Annual declared | 1.84 | 1.92 | 2.12 | 2.16 | 2.18 |
Credit Ratings
| Agency | Long-term (outlook) | Short-term |
|---|---|---|
Moody's | Baa2 (stable) | P-2 |
S&P | BBB (stable) | A-2 |
Fitch | n/d (not disclosed in company rating table) | — |
Capital Markets Data
| Maturity year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2040 | 2041 | 2043 | 2045 | 2049 | 2050 | 2053 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Principal (USD Mn) | 500 | 800 | 750 | 750 | 500 | 500 | 600 | 600 | 450 | 1,212 | 500 | 401 | 500 | 489 | 750 | 500 | 750 |
Analyst Conclusions
Management guidance (5 August 2026):
-
Retail adjusted EBITDA US$1.75–1.95B
-
Potash volumes 14.2–14.8 Mt (raised)
-
Nitrogen volumes 9.2–9.7 Mt (excluding Trinidad and New Madrid)
-
Phosphate volumes 2.4–2.6 Mt
-
Capex US$1.95–2.05B (lowered)
-
D&A US$2.4–2.5B; finance costs US$0.65–0.75B; tax rate 24–26%
-
Market view: constructive potash (74–77 Mt shipments); tight nitrogen in H2 2026; strained phosphate margins
Morningstar expected slightly higher 2026 adjusted EBITDA than 2025. H1 2026 actuals (+6%) support that view.
Bull case:
-
Potash is in a multi-year tightening phase. Record volumes, low importer inventories and a US$280M EBITDA uplift for every US$25/t price increase give operating leverage on a cost base below US$60/t.
-
Portfolio surgery permanently raises quality. Exiting Trinidad, New Madrid, Profertil and potentially Phosphate and Brazil leaves a higher-margin North American nitrogen business, potash and core retail. That could justify a re-rating from about 7x EV/EBITDA.
-
Capital returns are accelerating. Buybacks ran at roughly 2–3% of shares per year alongside a 3% yield, supported by free cash flow of about US$2B and capex below US$2.05B.
Bear case:
-
The 2026 nitrogen spike is geopolitical (Hormuz) and may reverse, while BHP Jansen adds potash supply later in the decade. That would compress the two segments generating two-thirds of EBITDA.
-
Phosphate losses persist if no buyer emerges, and sulfur and ammonia costs stay elevated. Shutdown and remediation obligations could add to an existing ARO/ERL balance of about US$1.5B.
-
Retail returns remain weak. Goodwill headroom in Retail North America is thin (US$2.9B), Brazil credit risk persists, and working-capital needs absorb cash, keeping ROE near or below 10%.
Analyst verdict. Nutrien enters late 2026 in better operational and financial shape than at any point since the 2022 peak. The FY2025 recovery to US$6.05 billion of adjusted EBITDA was earned rather than lent by prices alone. Record potash volumes, a four-point gain in ammonia operating rate, cost savings above the US$200 million target and capex held near US$2 billion all show disciplined management. H1 2026 extended these gains despite losing Trinidad's volumes and absorbing a sulfur shock in phosphate.
The strategic logic is coherent: concentrate capital on the world's best potash assets and gas-advantaged North American nitrogen, keep retail as a cash-generative distribution moat, and return surplus cash. Leverage near 1.9x net debt to EBITDA, BBB and Baa2 ratings, and a long-dated maturity ladder give the company flexibility through a downturn.
The valuation, at roughly 7x TTM EV/EBITDA and 14x earnings with a 3% yield, does not obviously discount the bull case. It reflects legitimate scepticism about cycle durability, phosphate and Brazil drags, and returns on a heavily goodwill-laden equity base. The stock's 12% pullback in September 2026 shows how sensitive the shares remain to nitrogen spot prices and geopolitical news.
Our assessment is constructive with execution caveats. The decisive variables over the next six months are company-specific: a clean Phosphate exit, a credible resolution for Brazil retail, and Investor Day targets that commit to structural free-cash-flow growth and higher buybacks. Delivery on those three points would make Nutrien a simpler, higher-return business and should narrow the conglomerate discount. A delay, or a phosphate outcome that requires large closure costs, would leave the shares range-bound and tied to the fertilizer cycle. On balance, the risk-reward favors patient holders, with the 30 November 2026 Investor Day as the key near-term catalyst.
Unlock Company Financials
Unlock this company profile to view its financial data.
View Subscription PlansExecutive Leadership
Executive Leadership Team
| Name | Title | Tenure / background | Education | 2025 total compensation (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Ken A. Seitz | President and CEO; director | Interim CEO August 2022; permanent January 2023. Previously EVP and CEO Potash at Nutrien and President and CEO of Canpotex. Chair of the International Fertilizer Association; director of The Fertilizer Institute. Age about 56 | B.Sc. (Agriculture), B.Eng., MBA (University of Saskatchewan); P.Eng.; P.Ag. | 9,437,234 |
Mark Thompson | EVP and Chief Financial Officer | NEO since 2024; leads finance and capital allocation | — | n/d (retrieved excerpt truncated) |
Noralee Bradley | EVP, External Affairs, Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary | NEO | — | — |
Dean Perkins | SVP, Upstream, Nitrogen and Proprietary Product Operations | Spokesperson on Trinidad (October 2026) | — | Not an NEO |
Jeff Holzman | SVP, Investor Relations and FP&A | IR lead | — | Not an NEO |
SVP, Safety, Health, Environment and Security | Newly created senior role | — | — | — |
Directors' Remuneration
| CEO total compensation (USD) | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Ken Seitz | 8,724,785 | 7,479,894 | 8,165,017 | 9,437,234 |
Board of Directors
| Director | Role / committees | Background | Independent |
|---|---|---|---|
Russell K. Girling | Board Chair | Former President and CEO, TC Energy; Chair of Suncor | Yes |
Christopher M. Burley | Audit Chair; CG&N | Former MD and Vice Chairman Energy, Merrill Lynch Canada; Chair of WestJet | Yes |
Maura J. Clark | Safety; HR&C | Former President of Direct Energy Business; ex-CFO Premcor; director of Newmont and Fortis | Yes |
Michael J. Hennigan | Safety Chair; CG&N; Audit | Former CEO and Executive Chair, Marathon Petroleum and MPLX; director of Cigna | Yes |
Miranda C. Hubbs | Audit; CG&N; Safety; HR&C (2025 rotations) | Former EVP, McLean Budden; Lead Director of Imperial Oil; Chair of CIRO | Yes |
Raj S. Kushwaha | Audit; CG&N | MD and Chief Digital Officer, Warburg Pincus | Yes |
Consuelo E. Madere | CG&N Chair; Audit | Former VP Global Vegetables, Monsanto; director of Lindsay Corp. | Yes |
Keith G. Martell | Safety | Former CEO, First Nations Bank of Canada; director of TD Bank | Yes (reclassified from non-independent) |
Aaron W. Regent | HR&C Chair; Audit | Former CEO of Barrick Gold; Chair of Bank of Nova Scotia | Yes |
Ken A. Seitz | President and CEO | See above | No |
Nelson L. C. Silva | HR&C; Safety | Former executive of Petrobras, BG Group and BHP Billiton; Brazil expertise | Yes |
Carolyn M. Tastad | New nominee, 2026 | Former Group President North America and CEO Health Care, Procter & Gamble | Yes |
Board & Management Changes
| Date | Change |
|---|---|
| 2022 | Magro to Schmidt to Seitz CEO transitions |
| 2024 | Mark Thompson becomes CFO (Pedro Farah was CFO earlier) |
| 2025 | New SVP SHE&S hired; board committee refresh and safety realignment |
May 2026 | Carolyn Tastad joins the board |
Competitive Landscape
Key Competitors
| Competitor | Segment(s) competed | Positioning vs Nutrien |
|---|---|---|
The Mosaic Company | Potash, Phosphate | Canpotex partner in potash; much larger phosphate producer (Florida and Brazil) |
Belaruskali (Belarus) | Potash | Large low-cost producer; affected by sanctions and rerouted logistics |
Uralkali (Russia) | Potash | Major low-cost exporter |
K+S AG (Germany / Bethune, Saskatchewan) | Potash | Higher-cost producer; Bethune solution mine competes for Canadian supply |
BHP (Jansen, Saskatchewan) | Potash (future) | Jansen Stage 1 will add significant greenfield supply later in the decade; long-term pricing threat |
ICL Group | Potash, Phosphate, specialty | Dead Sea and Spain potash; specialty phosphates |
CF Industries | Nitrogen | Largest North American nitrogen producer; Nutrien's closest nitrogen peer |
Yara International | Nitrogen, premium NPK, retail-like distribution | European, higher gas cost; strong premium products |
Koch Fertilizer (private) | Nitrogen | Major US nitrogen producer |
OCP Group (Morocco) | Phosphate | World's largest phosphate rock reserves |
Ma'aden (Saudi Arabia) | Phosphate, nitrogen | Low-cost Gulf exporter; Hormuz exposure |
CHS Inc., GROWMARK / FS, Wilbur-Ellis, Helena Agri-Enterprises | Retail (North America) | Co-op and private distributors |
Elders (Australia) | Retail and livestock | Main Australian retail rival |
Peer Comparison FY2025
| Metric | Nutrien (FY2025) | Mosaic (FY2024) | CF Industries (FY2024) | Yara (FY2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (USD Bn) | 26.9 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 13.9 |
Revenue growth (%) | 3.5 | — | — | — |
Adjusted EBITDA margin (%) | 22.5 | — | — | — |
Integrated retail | Yes | Limited (Brazil Fertilizantes) | No | Partial |
Recent Developments
Layoffs and hiring: Trinidad staff were retained on a care-and-maintenance basis at an estimated US$2M per month (local press); restructuring costs were US$82M in H1 2026.
