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Starbucks Corporation

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Starbucks Corporation - Food & Beverages showcase

Year Founded & Workforce

1971

381,000 Employees

Industry

Food & Beverages
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Starbucks Corporation Overview

Starbucks is the world's largest specialty coffee company and, by a wide margin, the dominant global operator of branded coffeehouses. It vertically integrates green-coffee sourcing, proprietary roasting and a 41,000-store retail estate spanning 89 markets, monetised through three channels: directly operated coffeehouses, a licensed store network run by regional partners, and a consumer-packaged-goods and foodservice franchise operated principally through the Global Coffee Alliance with Nestlé. The economic engine is North America, which generated 74% of fiscal 2025 revenue. Following two years of comparable-sales erosion, the company is executing a comprehensive operational reset — "Back to Starbucks" — under chairman and chief executive Brian Niccol, appointed September 2024. That reset has produced four consecutive quarters of comparable-sales growth through Q3 fiscal 2026 and two consecutive quarters of margin expansion, alongside a decisive shift in capital structure: the April 2026 divestiture of a controlling interest in Starbucks China converts the company's second-largest market to an asset-light licensing relationship.


The company's own characterisation

In its fiscal 2025 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Starbucks describes itself as the premier roaster, marketer and retailer of specialty coffee worldwide, operating in 89 markets. It purchases and roasts high-quality coffees, which it sells alongside handcrafted coffee, tea and other beverages together with food through company-operated stores (which the company calls "coffeehouses"). It also sells coffee and tea products and licenses its trademarks through other channels — licensed stores, and grocery and foodservice via the Global Coffee Alliance with Nestlé S.A. Beyond the flagship Starbucks Coffee brand, the company markets goods and services under the Teavana, Ethos and Starbucks Reserve marks.

The company states that its primary objective is to sustain Starbucks' standing as one of the most recognised and respected brands globally, and that continuous investment in brand and operations will deliver long-term revenue and income growth. That includes expanding the global store base in both mature markets such as the United States and higher-growth markets, and optimising the mix of company-operated and licensed stores. It emphasises beverage, equipment, process and technology innovation, including its digital platform.

Independent characterisation

Starbucks is best understood as three economically distinct businesses sharing one brand and one supply chain:

(a) A capital-intensive, high-fixed-cost retail operator. Company-operated stores generated 82.7% of fiscal 2025 net revenue ($30,744.8m of $37,184.4m). This business carries the full weight of store labour, occupancy and depreciation. In fiscal 2025 store operating expenses reached 55.5% of company-operated store revenue, up from 51.4% in fiscal 2024 — a 410-basis-point deterioration that is the single most important line item in understanding the fiscal 2025 profit collapse. Almost all of the 21,514 company-operated stores at fiscal 2025 year-end were leased, which is why operating lease liabilities of $10.5bn sit alongside $16.1bn of financial debt on the balance sheet.

(b) A royalty-and-wholesale licensing business. Licensed stores produced 11.7% of fiscal 2025 revenue ($4,350.4m). Under this model Starbucks earns a margin on branded product and equipment sold to the licensee plus a royalty on the licensee's retail sales; the licensee bears operating costs and capital expenditure. Licensed stores carry lower gross margin but structurally higher operating margin than company-operated stores. This is the model Starbucks is now deliberately migrating toward: the April 2026 conversion of roughly 7,991 China company-operated stores to licensed status was the largest single such shift in the company's history.

(c) A consumer-packaged-goods and foodservice franchise. "Other" revenue — 5.6% of fiscal 2025 revenue ($2,089.2m) — is recorded largely in Channel Development and comprises packaged coffee, tea and ready-to-drink sales outside the store estate plus Nestlé royalties. This is by far the highest-margin part of the enterprise: Channel Development operating margin was 47.3% in fiscal 2025 and 52.1% in Q3 fiscal 2026. It is also the least capital-intensive, since Nestlé controls distribution and, in some cases, roasting and packaging of Starbucks packaged products outside Starbucks stores.

Revenue model composition

Revenue stream (USD Mn)FY2023FY2024FY2025
Company-operated stores29,55229,765.930,744.8
Licensed stores4,5174,505.14,350.4
Other (CPG, foodservice, royalties)1,9061,905.22,089.2
Total net revenues35,975.636,176.237,184.4
Consolidated revenue by product type (USD Mn)FY2023FY2024FY2025
Beverage21,684.821,883.922,539.9
Food6,585.16,749.27,049.9
Other7,705.77,543.17,594.6
Total35,975.636,176.237,184.4

(FY2024 and FY2025 from the Q4 FY2025 earnings release, 29 October 2025; FY2023 components derived from the FY2023 Form 10-K and shown as approximate.)

(FY2025 Form 10-K, segment note.)

Within company-operated stores specifically, the retail sales mix in fiscal 2025 was 73% beverages, 23% food and 4% other, versus 74%/23%/3% in fiscal 2024 and 74%/22%/4% in fiscal 2023 (FY2025 Form 10-K). The food attach rate has been a deliberate management lever; Q3 fiscal 2026 ticket growth of 3.5% in North America was attributed in part to food attach and beverage modification.

Value chain position

Starbucks occupies an unusually long stretch of the coffee value chain for a retailer. It controls substantially all green-coffee purchasing, roasting, packaging and global distribution for its own operations, operates ten farmer support centres (including one in Yunnan Province, China) staffed with agronomists, and owns most of its roasting plants while leasing the majority of warehousing and distribution facilities. Upstream, it does not own coffee farms at scale; it purchases from producers, trading companies and exporters using fixed-price and price-to-be-fixed commitments, hedged with forwards, futures and collars. Downstream in the CPG channel it has ceded distribution to Nestlé in exchange for an upfront payment and an ongoing royalty stream — an asset-light structure that materially improves returns but reduces control.

Customer types and end-markets

Retail consumers: the overwhelming majority of revenue, transacting in-store, via drive-thru, mobile order-and-pay, and third-party delivery. Starbucks Rewards had 34.2m 90-day-active U.S. members at fiscal 2025 year-end and 35.5m at January 2026, and the programme drove nearly 60% of U.S. company-operated revenue in fiscal 2025 (2026 Investor Day, 29 January 2026).

Licensee operators: regional master licensees and franchisees who buy product, equipment and supplies from Starbucks and remit royalties. Concentration among a small number of large regional licensees is explicitly flagged as a risk factor.

Grocery, club and convenience retail: served through Nestlé under the Global Coffee Alliance.

Foodservice accounts: offices, hotels, universities, hospitals, airlines and airports.

Joint-venture partners: the North American Coffee Partnership with PepsiCo for ready-to-drink, and from April 2026 the Boyu Capital joint venture in China in which Starbucks retains 40%.

No single customer accounts for 10% or more of revenues (FY2025 Form 10-K).

Strategy

Stated strategy — "Back to Starbucks"

The strategy was announced in Q4 fiscal 2024, immediately after Mr Niccol's arrival, with the stated goal of bringing new and existing customers back to the stores and returning the business to growth. As articulated in the FY2025 Form 10-K and the 2026 proxy statement, its pillars are:

  1. Supporting green apron partners — the operating-model and labour-investment pillar.

  2. Enhancing the customer experience — service standards, throughput and craft.

  3. Reestablishing the community coffeehouse — the "third place" positioning, seating, ambience and physical uplift.

  4. Strengthening the brand — product development, marketing, in-store and digital experience.

The proxy frames four aspirations: offer the best job in retail; be the world's greatest customer service company; be the community coffeehouse; and be visible, relevant, growing and loved everywhere. Management explicitly characterises the reset as an opportunity to reassess capital allocation priorities, efficiency efforts and store growth.

Announced strategic initiatives, last 24 months

Operating model.

  • Green Apron Service — described by the company as its largest-ever investment in operating standards and customer service. Rolled out to all U.S. company-operated coffeehouses by mid-August 2025 and fully live across North America company-operated stores by January 2026.

  • Assistant store manager role expanded across North America company-operated stores, announced at Leadership Experience 2025 (Q3 fiscal 2025), with expansion to Canada planned. Store managers formally retitled "Coffeehouse Leader" with a distinguishing cross-back apron.

  • Smart Queue order sequencing across café, mobile, drive-thru and delivery.

  • Green Dot Assist generative-AI barista assistant, piloted in approximately 50 stores with wider rollout targeted for autumn 2026.

  • Revamped point-of-sale to reduce training time and drink remakes.

  • Peak throughput improved to under four minutes on average across café and drive-thru by Q1 fiscal 2026.

Portfolio and estate.

  • September 2025 restructuring plan: approximately $1bn in total charges, roughly 90% North America, comprising approximately $150m of employee separation costs and approximately $850m of closure and related costs; 627 stores closed in Q4 fiscal 2025.

  • More than 1,000 coffeehouse renovations ("uplifts") over the following twelve months at approximately $150,000 per location; more than 25,000 additional U.S. café seats targeted by end of fiscal 2026.

  • New stand-alone store prototype for fiscal 2026 with approximately 32 seats and a drive-thru, with construction costs reduced approximately 30%.

  • Retirement of mobile-pick-up-only formats.

Menu and brand.

  • Protein Cold Foam (15g protein, no added sugar) and protein lattes.

  • Starbucks 1971 bold dark roast.

  • Reimagined artisanal baked case.

  • "Starting Five" test-market approach for menu innovation, modelled on Taco Bell and Chick-fil-A practice.

  • Spring 2026 introductions: ube, coconut, pistachio, lavender and sugar-free caramel; dedicated matcha menu; premium customisable chai; Energy Refreshers.

  • Marketing pivot away from promotions and discounting toward brand-led, culture-led work.

Loyalty and digital.

  • Reimagined Starbucks Rewards launched 10 March 2026 with Green, Gold and Reserve tiers; faster Star earning as spending rises; free monthly customisations; non-expiring Stars for Gold and Reserve; exclusive experiences and merchandise; and linkage with selected external loyalty programmes.

Partner investment.

  • U.S. coffeehouse partner pay and benefits worth on average approximately $30 per hour in total value (2026 proxy).

  • Paid parental leave increased to up to 18 weeks for benefits-eligible U.S. coffeehouse birth parents and up to 12 weeks for non-birth parents.

  • More than 230,000 partners received a Bean Stock grant in fiscal 2025.

  • 85% of partners achieving their preferred hours; record-low hourly partner turnover reported in fiscal 2025.

  • Starbucks College Achievement Plan: nearly 20,000 cumulative graduates as of May 2026, with 100% upfront tuition coverage for a first bachelor's degree through Arizona State University's online programme.

  • Goal to fill 90% of retail leadership roles internally.

Structural and portfolio transactions.

  • China joint venture with Boyu Capital, announced 3 November 2025 and closed April 2026.

  • Acquisition of 23.5 Degrees Topco Limited, a U.K. licensed partner, in Q1 fiscal 2025.

  • $1.3bn debt tender offers in May 2026 funded from China proceeds.

  • Reported exploration of options for the Japan business, including a stake sale or IPO (June 2026, unconfirmed).

Cost programme. On the Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings call, management described a plan to identify approximately $2bn of costs over two years spanning the entire profit and loss account, covering general and administrative expense, procurement and technology-enabled efficiency.

Sustainability commitments. Retention of the 2030 "resource positive" targets (50% reductions in carbon, water and waste against a 2019 baseline) and a net-zero-by-2050 ambition.

Management's medium-term targets

Guidance metricFiscal 2026 target
Q4 U.S. comparable store sales growth6.5% or greater
Full-year U.S. comparable store sales growthSlightly greater than 6.0%
Full-year global comparable store sales growthNearing 6.0%
Consolidated net revenue growthFlat to slight growth
Non-GAAP consolidated operating marginGreater than 11.0%
Non-GAAP EPS$2.55 to $2.65
Net new coffeehouses globallyApproximately 600 to 650
Fiscal 2028 framework metricTarget
Consolidated net revenue growth5% or greater
Global and U.S. comparable store sales growth3% or greater
Revenue contribution from new stores2% to 3%
Net new stores globally, company-operated and licensedOver 2000
Net new U.S. company-operated storesApproximately 400
Non-GAAP consolidated operating margin13.5% to 15.0%
Non-GAAP EPS (USD)3.35 to 4.00

Fiscal 2026 guidance, as raised on 29 July 2026:

Guidance reflects China as a joint-venture licensee in the second half of fiscal 2026 and as company-operated in the first half. The implied GAAP EPS range is $2.14 to $2.24. Guidance has been raised twice: from an initial $2.15–$2.40 non-GAAP EPS range with comparable-sales growth of 3% or greater (January 2026), to $2.25–$2.45 with comps of 5% or greater (April 2026), to the present range.

Long-term aspirations beyond fiscal 2028. Up to 5,000 additional U.S. coffeehouse opportunities, potentially doubling as average unit volumes rise; doubling the international footprint over time toward approximately 40,000 locations outside the United States, including 15,000 to 20,000 in China; and international coffeehouses growing at roughly twice the rate of North America. Management characterises the international business as an asset-light growth driver that raises consolidated margins.

Products & Services

North America and International segments — beverage platforms

Espresso platform. The core of the business. Latte, cappuccino, macchiato, flat white, americano, cortado, mocha, and their iced variants, built on the proprietary Mastrena espresso system. Target customer: the daily morning ritual customer, whom management describes as the morning loyalist. Pricing is market-by-market and not centrally disclosed. The next-generation proprietary Mastrena 3 machine was highlighted at the 2026 Investor Day as an unlock for throughput and craft consistency.

Brewed coffee platform. Pike Place Roast (introduced 2008 as the everyday house blend), Blonde Roast (2012), Dark Roast, decaf variants, and single-origin offerings including Starbucks Reserve micro-lots. In fiscal 2026 the company introduced Starbucks 1971, a new bold dark roast positioned as a coffee-authority statement, in U.S. company-operated coffeehouses.

Cold coffee platform. Cold Brew (2015), Nitro Cold Brew (2016), Vanilla Sweet Cream Cold Brew, Iced Shaken Espresso. Cold beverages have been the structural growth driver of the U.S. business for a decade and continue to be identified by management as a growth priority.

Frappuccino blended beverages. Introduced 1995 following the Coffee Connection acquisition; coffee and crème variants; the platform anchoring afternoon and youth occasions and the basis of the separate bottled ready-to-drink line.

Refreshers platform. Fruit-forward, green-coffee-extract-based cold beverages (Strawberry Açaí, Mango Dragonfruit, Summer Berry and seasonal variants). At the 2026 Investor Day the company announced an Energy Refreshers extension — a direct competitive response to the energy-drink incursion into the afternoon daypart.

Tea platform — Teavana. Brewed hot and iced teas, chai tea latte, matcha tea latte, London Fog. A dedicated matcha menu began rolling out in early 2026, and a premium customisable chai recipe allowing adjustment of sweetness and spice was introduced in spring 2026.

Protein-forward platform. Protein Cold Foam launched in late Q4 fiscal 2025, delivering 15 grams of protein with no added sugar, with protein lattes following. Management has signalled protein-forward breakfast items as the next extension. This is the clearest example of Starbucks building a platform against a macro consumer trend (GLP-1-era protein prioritisation) rather than a seasonal flavour.

Customisation and modifiers. Syrups, sauces, cold foams, alternative milks (oat, almond, soy, coconut). Beverage modification is now explicitly cited as a ticket driver — Q3 fiscal 2026 North America ticket growth of 3.5% was attributed partly to modification and food attach. New and expanded flavour lines announced for 2026 include ube, coconut, pistachio, lavender and sugar-free caramel, several intended to become year-round.

Food portfolio

Bakery: croissants, muffins, loaves, cookies, scones; a reimagined artisanal baked case was announced for rollout across U.S. company-operated coffeehouses in fiscal 2026, together with new globally inspired bakery and food items.

Hot breakfast: breakfast sandwiches, wraps and Sous Vide Egg Bites (a high-attach, high-margin platform).

Lunch and snacking: sandwiches, protein boxes, packaged snacks.

  • Food represented 23% of company-operated store sales mix in fiscal 2025, up from 22% in fiscal 2023 — modest but steady mix gain.

Premium and experiential formats

Starbucks Reserve: small-lot, rare-coffee brand sold through dedicated bars within selected stores and through Reserve Roasteries.

Starbucks Reserve Roastery: immersive multi-storey retail-theatre formats (Seattle 2014, Shanghai 2017, Milan 2018, New York 2018, Tokyo 2019, Chicago 2019). Reported within Siren Retail; four Siren Retail stores remained in North America and five internationally at fiscal 2025 year-end.

Princi: Italian bakery brand integrated into Roastery locations.

Flagship formats: the September 2025 Real Madrid Santiago Bernabéu Stadium opening in Madrid exemplifies destination-flagship strategy.

Channel Development portfolio

Packaged coffee: whole bean and ground, distributed by Nestlé under the Global Coffee Alliance.

Single-serve: Starbucks K-Cup pods, Starbucks by Nespresso capsules (Original and Vertuo).

VIA Instant: microground instant coffee, launched 2009.

Ready-to-drink: bottled Frappuccino, Starbucks Doubleshot, canned Nitro Cold Brew, Starbucks Baya Energy. Produced and distributed in North America through the North American Coffee Partnership joint venture with PepsiCo, and internationally through Nestlé and other partners.

At-home creamers and foodservice: refrigerated creamers under the Starbucks brand; foodservice products for offices, hotels, universities, healthcare and airlines.

  • Starbucks remains a market leader in both the total U.S. at-home coffee and ready-to-drink categories (2026 proxy statement, fiscal 2025 business highlights).

Other brands

Ethos Water: bottled water brand acquired 2005, with a per-bottle contribution supporting global water programmes.

Teavana: retained as a beverage and packaged-tea brand following closure of standalone Teavana retail.

Digital, loyalty and payments platforms

Starbucks Card: stored-value card launched 2001, available in company-operated and most licensed stores in North America, China, Japan and many other markets, plus online, via the mobile app and through third-party retailers. The stored-value card liability and current portion of deferred revenue stood at $1,840.6m at fiscal 2025 year-end and $1,818.1m at 28 June 2026, with a further $5,632.5m of long-term deferred revenue (predominantly the unamortised Nestlé upfront payment).

Starbucks Rewards: in nearly all markets, registered card holders are auto-enrolled. The programme was fundamentally restructured effective 10 March 2026 into three tiers: Green (1 Star per $1), Gold (1.2 Stars per $1) and Reserve (1.7 Stars per $1). Redemption tiers run 25 Stars (a drink customisation, up to roughly $1 value), 100 Stars (brewed coffee, tea, bakery item or packaged snack, up to roughly $6), 200 Stars (handcrafted beverage or hot breakfast item, up to roughly $10), 300 Stars (sandwich, protein box or packaged coffee, up to roughly $16) and 400 Stars (select merchandise, up to roughly $20). Stars do not expire for Gold and Reserve members. Members may link Starbucks Rewards with selected external loyalty programmes.

Mobile Order & Pay: advance ordering for pick-up in participating markets; a principal driver of throughput complexity and the reason for the Smart Queue investment.

Smart Queue: order-sequencing technology that intelligently orders café, mobile, drive-thru and delivery tickets to balance channels.

Green Dot Assist: a generative-AI assistant giving baristas real-time shift guidance, standards and troubleshooting. Piloted in approximately 50 stores from 2025 with a broader rollout targeted for autumn 2026.

Green Apron Service model: not a product but the foundational operating system: standardised routines, staffing and sequencing, fully deployed across the U.S. company-operated portfolio by Q4 fiscal 2025 and across North America company-operated coffeehouses by the 2026 Investor Day. Peak throughput improved to under four minutes on average across café and drive-thru in Q1 fiscal 2026.

Starbucks Digital Solutions: a licensed-market digital platform in which Starbucks acts as data controller, referenced in the FY2025 risk factors.

Point-of-sale: a revamped POS designed to cut training time and drink remakes.

Store formats

Traditional café, drive-thru, kiosk, university and hospital licensed formats, airport licensed stores, and a new stand-alone prototype for fiscal 2026 featuring approximately 32 seats plus a drive-thru, with new-store construction cost reduced by roughly 30%. Management has been retiring mobile-pick-up-only formats as inconsistent with the third-place positioning. Coffeehouse "uplift" renovations at roughly $150,000 per location are restoring seating; the company expected to add more than 25,000 U.S. café seats by the end of fiscal 2026.

Equipment portfolio

Mastrena II and Mastrena 3 superautomatic espresso machines; Clover and Clover Vertica brewing systems; the Siren System cold-beverage assembly platform. Equipment is also sold to licensees, forming part of licensed-store revenue.

Financial Narrative

Currency and units: All figures USD millions except per-share data and ratios. Fiscal years end on the Sunday closest to 30 September. Fiscal 2021 comprised 53 weeks; fiscal 2022 through fiscal 2025 comprised 52 weeks each.

Income statement

Notes. Starbucks does not present a gross profit subtotal; the gross profit and gross margin rows use the S&P Global Market Intelligence standardisation, which nets product and distribution costs, store operating expenses, other operating expenses and depreciation against revenue. Yahoo Finance's standardisation produces a modestly different fiscal 2025 figure of approximately $8.47bn against S&P's $8.57bn — the discrepancy reflects differing treatment of depreciation and equity-method income, not a disagreement about the underlying filings. EBITDA is author-computed as GAAP operating income plus the income-statement depreciation and amortisation expense line ($1,441.7m FY2021; $1,447.9m FY2022; $1,362.6m FY2023; $1,512.6m FY2024; $1,684.7m FY2025) and therefore excludes amortisation recorded elsewhere; the cash-flow-statement D&A figures are higher ($1,450.3m FY2023; $1,592.4m FY2024; $1,771.5m FY2025). Non-GAAP operating margin and non-GAAP EPS for FY2021–FY2023 are as reported in those years' releases and are shown for completeness; FY2024 GAAP and non-GAAP EPS were identical. Weighted average diluted share counts for FY2021–FY2023 are drawn from those years' filings and are approximate.

Revenue CAGR. Four-year compound annual growth from fiscal 2021 to fiscal 2025 is 6.4%. The two-year CAGR from fiscal 2023 to fiscal 2025 is 1.7%. The deceleration is the entire investment debate: the business grew revenue at a double-digit clip through the post-pandemic recovery, then hit a wall in fiscal 2024 as U.S. transactions rolled over.

Balance sheet

Notes. FY2024 and FY2025 balance-sheet lines are taken directly from the consolidated balance sheets in the Q4 FY2025 earnings release. FY2021–FY2023 lines are S&P-standardised and may differ marginally from the as-filed presentation (for example, the as-filed FY2023 current portion of long-term debt was $1,818.6m plus $33.5m of short-term borrowings). Net financial debt is author-computed as total borrowings less cash and short-term investments and excludes operating lease liabilities.

On negative equity. Starbucks has operated with a shareholders' deficit since fiscal 2018. This is not distress; it is the arithmetic legacy of returning more than $30bn to shareholders via buybacks and dividends over a decade against an asset base largely funded by leases and deferred revenue. It does, however, render ROE and debt-to-equity meaningless, and it is why the Altman Z-Score of 3.04 and interest coverage are the more informative solvency reads.

Cash flow

Notes. FY2023–FY2025 figures are from the consolidated statements of cash flows in the Q4 FY2025 earnings release. FY2021–FY2022 dividend, buyback and stock-compensation figures are drawn from those years' Form 10-K filings and should be re-checked against the source documents. Share repurchases were suspended from March 2020 and resumed in Q1 fiscal 2022, when 31.1 million shares were repurchased for $3.5bn; the programme was suspended again in April 2022. No shares were repurchased in fiscal 2025.

Three quarters into fiscal 2026, operating cash flow was $3,604.1m against $3,365.7m in the prior-year period, capital expenditure had fallen sharply to $887.8m from $1,849.5m, and the company received $2,544.2m of net proceeds from the China divestiture. Financing outflows of $4,944.2m included $2,815.9m of long-term debt repayment and $2,118.0m of dividends.

Ratio analysis

Notes. Return on equity and debt-to-equity are shown as zero because equity is negative and the ratios are not meaningful. ROIC is author-computed as GAAP operating income tax-effected at the effective tax rate, divided by invested capital defined as total borrowings plus operating lease liabilities plus total equity/(deficit). S&P Global Market Intelligence reports a trailing-twelve-month ROIC of 13.67% as of August 2026 on its own definition. Interest expense for FY2023–FY2025 is as filed ($550.1m, $562.0m, $542.6m); FY2021–FY2022 interest expense is taken from those years' 10-Ks and is approximate. The cash conversion cycle is author-computed using product and distribution costs as the cost base, which overstates days inventory relative to a full cost-of-sales base; it also excludes the substantial negative working capital funded by stored-value card float and deferred revenue.

Commentary on trends, inflections and drivers

Revenue. The fiscal 2021–2023 period reflects post-pandemic recovery combined with aggressive pricing. Fiscal 2024 marks the inflection: revenue growth collapsed to 0.6% as global comparable store sales declined and U.S. transactions fell sharply — the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 saw global comps down 7% on an 8% transaction decline. Fiscal 2025 revenue growth of 2.8% was almost entirely unit-driven: net new company-operated openings plus the 23.5 Degrees acquisition and Global Coffee Alliance growth, partially offset by a 1% global comparable-sales decline and licensed-store weakness. The fiscal 2026 pattern is the mirror image — comparable sales are up 4.0%, 6.2% and 7.9% in Q1, Q2 and Q3 respectively, yet consolidated revenue is guided flat to slightly up because the China conversion removes roughly $800m of quarterly company-operated revenue and replaces it with a much smaller licensing stream.

Margin. The fiscal 2025 GAAP operating margin of 7.9% is the lowest in the company's modern history and represents a 710-basis-point contraction. The decomposition is unambiguous: restructuring and impairments of $892.0m (240bp), deleverage on flat traffic, deliberate labour reinvestment, and commodity inflation led by green coffee. Store operating expenses rose 11.6% against revenue growth of 2.8%. Adjusting out restructuring, litigation settlements and transaction costs, non-GAAP operating margin was 9.9% — still a 510-basis-point contraction. The critical point for forward modelling is that the labour investment was intentional and largely permanent, whereas the restructuring charge was not. Q3 fiscal 2026 already demonstrates the recovery mechanics: GAAP margin of 10.5% (up 60bp) and non-GAAP margin of 14.4% (up 430bp), assisted by sales leverage, lapping of the one-off Leadership Experience 2025 cost, lower inflation and tariff refunds.

Earnings. GAAP EPS fell 50.8% in fiscal 2025 to $1.63; non-GAAP EPS fell 35.6% to $2.13. The Q3 fiscal 2026 GAAP EPS of $0.91 is flattered by a $536.3m net gain on the China divestiture ($0.47 per share); non-GAAP EPS of $0.85 was up 70% year over year and is the cleaner read.

Cash flow and capital intensity. Capital expenditure peaked at $2,777.5m in fiscal 2024 — 7.7% of revenue — as the prior management team pursued aggressive store development. Fiscal 2025 capex fell to $2,305.5m, and the fiscal 2026 nine-month run rate of $887.8m represents a dramatic reduction that partly reflects the cessation of China capital deployment and partly a disciplined shift toward lower-cost renovations at roughly $150,000 per store and a new-build prototype with construction costs down roughly 30%. Free cash flow of $2,442m in fiscal 2025 did not cover the $2,771.4m dividend — a coverage gap that management closed in fiscal 2026 through the China proceeds and capex discipline rather than through a dividend cut.

Leverage. Net financial debt to EBITDA rose from 1.27x in fiscal 2021 to 2.73x in fiscal 2025 on collapsing EBITDA rather than rising debt. The $2.5bn of China proceeds were deployed in part to retire approximately $1.3bn of notes via the May 2026 tender offers, taking long-term debt from $14,575.9m at fiscal 2025 year-end to $11,780.2m at 28 June 2026 — a material and deliberate deleveraging.

Working capital. Inventories rose $408.4m in fiscal 2025, a direct function of green-coffee price inflation and forward buying. The stored-value card and deferred revenue balances — $1,840.6m current and $5,772.6m long-term at fiscal 2025 year-end — represent negative-cost funding that materially understates the true working-capital efficiency of the business when measured on a conventional cash conversion cycle.

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Financial Detail

Income Statement and Margin Analysis (%)

MetricFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025

Net revenues (USD Mn)

29,060.632,250.335,975.636,176.237,184.4

Revenue growth (%)

23.611.011.60.62.8

Gross profit, S&P-standardised (USD Mn)

8,4358,3859,8699,7328,570

Gross margin (%)

29.026.027.426.923.1

Operating income, GAAP (USD Mn)

4,872.14,617.85,870.85,408.82,936.6

Operating margin, GAAP (%)

16.814.316.315.07.9

Non-GAAP operating margin (%)

16.815.116.515.09.9

EBITDA, author-computed (USD Mn)

6,313.86,065.77,233.46,921.44,621.3

EBITDA margin (%)

21.718.820.119.112.4

Pre-tax income (USD Mn)

5,356.04,230.15,401.94,969.62,507.3

Effective tax rate (%)

21.622.423.624.325.9

Net earnings attributable to Starbucks (USD Mn)

4,199.33,281.64,124.53,760.91,856.4

Net margin (%)

14.510.211.510.45.0

EPS basic (USD)

3.582.863.603.321.64

EPS diluted (USD)

3.542.833.583.311.63

Non-GAAP EPS (USD)

3.542.833.583.312.13

Dividends declared per share (USD)

1.842.002.162.322.45

Weighted average diluted shares (M)

1,186.31,160.51,152.01,137.31,139.8

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Balance Sheet

MetricFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025

Total assets (USD Mn)

31,392.627,978.429,445.531,339.332,019.7

Cash and cash equivalents (USD Mn)

6,455.72,818.43,551.53,286.23,219.8

Short-term investments (USD Mn)

162.2364.5401.5257.0247.2

Inventories (USD Mn)

1,603.52,176.61,806.41,777.32,185.6

Accounts receivable, net (USD Mn)

940.01,176.01,184.01,213.81,277.5

Property, plant and equipment, net (USD Mn)

6,369.56,560.97,387.78,665.58,493.5

Operating lease right-of-use asset (USD Mn)

8,194.08,015.68,412.69,286.29,315.7

Goodwill (USD Mn)

3,677.03,283.73,218.33,315.73,368.9

Other intangible assets (USD Mn)

349.9155.9120.5100.9166.8

Short-term debt and current portion of long-term debt (USD Mn)

998.91,935.91,852.11,248.91,498.9

Long-term debt (USD Mn)

13,616.913,153.613,589.014,319.514,575.9

Total borrowings excluding leases (USD Mn)

14,615.815,089.515,441.115,568.416,074.8

Operating lease liabilities, total (USD Mn)

8,989.08,761.09,200.010,234.710,536.7

Net financial debt (USD Mn)

7,997.911,906.611,488.112,025.212,607.8

Total shareholders' deficit including NCI (USD Mn)

-5,314.5-8,699.0-7,987.8-7,441.6-8,089.2

Working capital (USD Mn)

1,605-2,133-2,042-2,223-2,828

Cash Flow and Margin Analysis (%)

MetricFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025

Net cash from operating activities (USD Mn)

5,989.24,397.46,008.76,095.64,747.5

Capital expenditure (USD Mn)

1,470.01,841.32,333.62,777.52,305.5

Free cash flow (USD Mn)

4,519.22,556.13,675.13,318.12,442.0

Free cash flow margin (%)

15.67.910.29.26.6

Cash dividends paid (USD Mn)

2,119.62,263.12,431.82,585.02,771.4

Share repurchases (USD Mn)

04,013.5984.41,266.70

Acquisitions, net of cash acquired (USD Mn)

0000177.1

Stock-based compensation (USD Mn)

319.1297.4302.7308.3318.3

Returns & Leverage Ratios (%) and Financial Ratios (x)

RatioFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025

Return on equity (%)

00000

Return on assets, ending basis (%)

13.411.714.012.05.8

Return on invested capital, author-computed (%)

20.923.626.922.311.7

Current ratio (x)

1.200.770.780.750.72

Debt to equity (x)

00000

Net financial debt to EBITDA (x)

1.271.961.591.742.73

Interest coverage, EBIT over interest expense (x)

10.49.610.79.65.4

Asset turnover (x)

0.931.151.221.151.16

Cash conversion cycle (days)

28.239.320.418.122.9

Dividend payout ratio on GAAP EPS (%)

52.070.760.370.1150.3

Net revenues by geography (USD Mn)

Net revenues by geography (USD Mn)FY2023FY2024FY2025

United States

26,398.326,707.427,124.7

China

3,081.53,008.23,160.8

Other countries

6,495.86,460.66,898.9

Total

35,975.636,176.237,184.4

Geographic growth rate (%)

Geographic growth rate (%)FY2024FY2025

United States

1.21.6

China

-2.45.1

Other countries

-0.56.8

Total

0.62.8

Geographic share of total revenue (%)

Geographic share of total revenue (%)FY2023FY2024FY2025

United States

73.473.872.9

China

8.68.38.5

Other countries

18.117.918.6

Net long-lived assets (USD Mn)

Net long-lived assets (USD Mn)FY2024FY2025

United States

15,878.415,952.7

China

4,514.24,276.8

Other countries

4,099.34,407.9

Total

24,491.924,637.4

Geographic Revenue

Company-operated stores by marketFY2024FY2025

United States

10,15810,047

Canada

997967

China

7,5948,009

Japan

1,8091,883

United Kingdom

378524

All other international

7175

Siren Retail, North America and International

119

Total company-operated

21,01821,514

Geographic Revenue by Licensed Stores by Market

Licensed stores by marketFY2024FY2025

United States

6,7776,813

Canada

486480

Korea

1,9802,077

Latin America

1,7051,813

United Kingdom

976900

Turkey

722762

Taiwan

571592

Indonesia

603597

Thailand

513550

Philippines

479520

All other international

4,3694,372

Total licensed

19,18119,476

Valuation Snapshot

MetricValue

Closing price, 14 August 2026 (USD)

107.69

Market capitalisation (USD Bn)

122.75

Enterprise value (USD Bn)

141.59

52-week price change (%)

14.35

50-day moving average (USD)

103.46

200-day moving average (USD)

95.95

Beta, five-year

0.97

Average volume, 20 days (shares)

7,657,791

Relative Strength Index

58.53

Consensus Rating Details

Consensus ratingBuy

Number of analysts

36

Average price target (USD)

112.23

Implied upside from 14 August 2026 close (%)

4.22

Three-year revenue growth forecast (%)

3.00

Three-year EPS growth forecast (%)

20.41

Total return (%)

Total return (%)1-year5-year10-year

Starbucks

12.972.9783.70

S&P 500

00257.40

Valuation Multiples

MultipleCurrentFY2025FY2024FY2023FY2022FY2021

P/E, trailing (x)

61.8651.0629.3425.3529.4631.71

P/E, forward (x)

36.5333.8125.4623.2726.9230.27

P/Sales (x)

3.202.553.052.913.004.58

P/Free cash flow (x)

33.7038.8233.2528.4537.8329.46

EV/Sales (x)

3.6900000

EV/EBITDA (x)

25.0900000

EV/EBIT (x)

35.6200000

Price/Book (x)

000000

PEG (x)

1.8600000

Dividend metric

Dividend metricValue

Current quarterly dividend per share (USD)

0.62

Annualised dividend per share (USD)

2.48

Dividend yield (%)

2.30

Consecutive quarterly payouts through Q3 FY2026

65

Dividend CAGR over the payout history (%)

17

Consecutive annual increases

15

Payout ratio on trailing GAAP EPS (%)

142.45

Fiscal 2025 dividends paid (USD Mn)

2,771.4

Dividends declared per share (USD)

Dividends declared per share (USD)FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025

Annual dividend

1.842.002.162.322.45

Credit Ratings

AgencyRatingOutlook / status

Moody's Ratings

Baa1 senior unsecured; Prime-2 commercial paper

Outlook moved from stable to negative on 30 April 2025 with ratings affirmed; Baa1 placed on review for downgrade in November 2025 following the China joint venture announcement, with Prime-2 affirmed.

S&P Global Ratings

BBB+

Investment grade; third-party commentary in mid-2026 describes the BBB+/Baa1 pairing as stable, but this has not been confirmed against a primary agency release

Note Series Details

Note seriesPrincipal accepted for purchase (USD Mn)Principal remaining outstanding (USD Mn)

4.500% Senior Notes due 2028

273.5476.5

4.000% Senior Notes due 2028

0.0750.0

4.800% Senior Notes due 2030

321.8178.2

5.000% Senior Notes due 2034

110.40

5.400% Senior Notes due 2035

410.20

4.500% Senior Notes due 2048

200.0800.0

Analyst Conclusions

Management guidance

For fiscal 2026, management guides to full-year U.S. comparable store sales growth slightly greater than 6.0% and global comparable store sales growth nearing 6.0%, with Q4 U.S. comps at 6.5% or greater; consolidated net revenues flat to slightly up; non-GAAP consolidated operating margin greater than 11.0%; non-GAAP EPS of $2.55 to $2.65; and approximately 600 to 650 net new coffeehouses globally. GAAP EPS is projected at $2.14 to $2.24, bridged to non-GAAP by $0.48 of restructuring and impairments, $0.07 of transaction costs, $0.04 of transformation costs, a $(0.47) net divestiture gain, $0.24 of tax impact from changes in indefinite reinvestment assertions, and $0.05 of tax effect on the adjustments.

Through fiscal 2028, management targets consolidated net revenue growth of 5% or greater, comparable sales of 3% or greater, over 2,000 net new stores globally including approximately 400 net new U.S. company-operated units, non-GAAP operating margin of 13.5% to 15.0%, and non-GAAP EPS of $3.35 to $4.00.

Consensus expectations

Thirty-six covering analysts hold a consensus Buy rating with an average target of $112.23, implying 4.2% upside. Consensus models three-year revenue growth of 3.0% and three-year EPS growth of 20.4% — an explicit margin-recovery thesis rather than a growth thesis.

Bull case

1. The margin bridge is arithmetically large and mechanically credible. Non-GAAP operating margin was 9.9% in fiscal 2025 and is guided above 11.0% for fiscal 2026, with a fiscal 2028 target of 13.5–15.0%. Q3 fiscal 2026 already delivered 14.4%. Roughly 200bp of the fiscal 2025 contraction was non-recurring (restructuring, the Leadership Experience 2025 one-off), and the remainder is being recovered through sales leverage on 6–8% comps. Every 100bp of margin on roughly $37bn of revenue is approximately $370m of operating income, or roughly $0.24 of EPS. The gap from 9.9% to the 14.25% framework midpoint is worth roughly $1.05 of EPS on the current revenue base before any volume growth — which is the entire consensus EPS growth expectation.

2. The China restructuring converts a capital sink into a royalty stream and a call option. Starbucks removed approximately $4.3bn of long-lived assets and roughly 8,000 stores of operating complexity from its balance sheet, received $2,544.2m of net proceeds, recognised a $536.3m gain, retired approximately $1.3bn of debt, retained a 40% equity interest, and continues to own the brand and collect licensing economics on a business the partners aspire to grow from 8,000 to 20,000 locations. The International segment margin expanded 550bp in a single quarter as a direct result. If Boyu executes, Starbucks captures the upside with none of the capital and none of the price war.

3. The operating model change is real and measurable, not narrative. Peak throughput fell to under four minutes on average; U.S. transactions turned positive for the first time in eight quarters in Q1 fiscal 2026 and grew 4.2% in Q3; hourly partner turnover reached record lows; 85% of partners achieved preferred hours. These are leading indicators of durable traffic, and traffic-led comps are worth more than price-led comps because they compound through attach and frequency rather than exhausting price elasticity.

Bear case

1. Consensus and price already embed the framework. At 36.5x forward earnings with an average price target implying 4.2% upside, the market is paying today for margins that do not exist until fiscal 2028. Any slippage — a comp deceleration, a coffee cost spike, a failed daypart initiative — removes the valuation support. The stock has delivered a 2.97% five-year total return; it is not cheap on any measure of realised performance.

2. The labour cost base is permanent while the offsets are not. Store operating expenses rose to 55.5% of company-operated store revenue in fiscal 2025 from 51.4%, and management describes the partner investment as foundational. Meanwhile the fiscal 2026 margin recovery is partly assisted by items that will not repeat: IEEPA tariff refunds that largely offset three quarters of tariffs, the lapping of Leadership Experience 2025, and China deconsolidation. Strip those out and the underlying North America margin recovery is narrower than the headline suggests — North America's nine-month fiscal 2026 operating income is still down 10.3% year over year on 5.4% revenue growth.

3. The comparisons get very hard, and the loyalty relaunch is an unforced risk. Fiscal 2027 laps comps of roughly 6%, a tariff refund benefit, and a China gain. Simultaneously, the March 2026 Rewards restructure reduced base-tier earning rates and generated widely reported consumer backlash — in a programme that drives nearly 60% of U.S. company-operated revenue. Frequency among the base tier is the single most important unmodelled variable in the fiscal 2027 forecast. Add Luckin's U.S. entry, McDonald's beverage expansion, and Dutch Bros compounding at 28% revenue growth with a 2,029-by-2029 unit target, and the traffic gains of fiscal 2026 are not obviously defensible.

Catalysts and monitorables — next twelve months

Catalyst / monitorableTimingWhy it matters
Q4 and full fiscal year 2026 resultsLate October / early November 2026Tests the Q4 U.S. comp guide of 6.5% or greater and the non-GAAP EPS range of $2.55–2.65; first clean read on the post-China revenue base
Fiscal 2027 guidanceWith Q4 FY2026 resultsThe critical test: whether management can guide to continued margin expansion while lapping tariff refunds, the China gain and 6% comps
Starbucks Rewards frequency dataQuarterly from Q4 FY2026Whether the tier restructure has suppressed base-tier visit frequency; management commentary and any disclosed member counts
Moody's resolution of the Baa1 reviewOngoingA downgrade to Baa2 would raise borrowing costs; a return to stable would validate the deleveraging
Share repurchase resumptionAny quarterLeverage has fallen materially; a restart would be the clearest signal that management considers the reinvestment cycle complete
Japan strategic review outcomeUnspecifiedA ¥400–500bn transaction would extend the asset-light conversion and provide further deleveraging or buyback capacity — currently unconfirmed
Green Dot Assist broad rolloutAutumn 2026Labour productivity is the principal remaining margin lever within management's control
Boyu joint venture unit growth and equity-income contributionQuarterlyValidates or undermines the $13bn total China valuation assertion
Green coffee "C" price and tariff policyContinuousThe largest exogenous input-cost variable; IEEPA refunds will not repeat
Afternoon daypart initiatives (Energy Refreshers, protein platform, premium chai)Through FY2027The only genuinely incremental demand pool management has identified
U.S. labour relations and Fair Workweek-style regulationContinuousCost and reputational exposure; approximately 6% of U.S. company-operated stores unionised
Fiscal 2028 framework reaffirmation or revisionInvestor communications through FY2027The framework is the valuation anchor; any softening would be materially negative

Analyst verdict

Starbucks in August 2026 is a company that has successfully separated two problems it had conflated. The first was operational: a store estate that had been optimised for mobile-order throughput at the expense of the experience customers actually valued, staffed too thinly to deliver either. That problem has been addressed with unusual decisiveness — Green Apron Service, assistant store managers, 627 closures, more than 1,000 renovations, 25,000 additional seats, and a construction cost base cut by roughly 30%. The evidence is in the data, not the rhetoric: four consecutive quarters of comparable-sales growth, transaction-led, with peak throughput under four minutes.

The second problem was structural: a China business competing on price against a competitor with ten times the unit count and a fundamentally different cost model. Management did not attempt to win that fight. It sold 60% at approximately $4bn enterprise value, retained the brand economics and a 40% interest, took $2.5bn of cash, and retired $1.3bn of debt. This is the more consequential decision, and it is the correct one.

What remains unresolved is whether the margin recovery is worth the price being paid for it. The fiscal 2028 framework of 13.5–15.0% non-GAAP operating margin and $3.35–4.00 non-GAAP EPS is credible but not conservative, and at 36.5x forward earnings with a consensus target only 4.2% above spot, the equity offers little compensation for execution risk. The permanent labour investment, the non-repeating tariff refund, the loyalty relaunch backlash, and a fiscal 2027 comparison base built on 6%-plus comps together constitute a meaningfully harder second act than the first.

The verdict is that Starbucks has become a materially better-run business and a materially less attractive entry point simultaneously. The turnaround is real; the option value on it has largely been exercised by the market. Own it for the fiscal 2028 framework, size it for the fiscal 2027 comparison.


Prepared from publicly available sources as at 16 August 2026.

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Executive Leadership

Executive Leadership Team

NameAge (FY2025 10-K)TitleAppointedSelected prior roles

Brian Niccol

51

Chairman and chief executive officer

September 2024

CEO and later chairman of Chipotle Mexican Grill (2018–2024); CEO of Taco Bell (2015–2018), previously its president and chief marketing and innovation officer; leadership roles at Pizza Hut (2005–2011); began career in brand management at Procter & Gamble

Cathy R. Smith

62

Executive vice president, chief financial officer

March 2025

EVP, CFO and treasurer of Nordstrom (2023–2025); chief financial and administrative officer of Bright Health Group (2020–2023); CFO of Target (2015–2020); CFO of Express Scripts (2014–2015); CFO of Walmart International (2010–2014); CFO of GameStop (2009–2010)

Mike Grams

55

Executive vice president, chief operating officer

June 2025 (joined February 2025 as EVP, North America chief coffeehouse officer)

Nearly thirty years at Taco Bell Corp., including president and chief operating officer (2020–2024), global COO and general manager North America (2017–2020)

Brady Brewer

52

Chief executive officer, Starbucks International

April 2024

Joined Starbucks 2001; EVP and chief marketing officer (2020–2024); SVP digital customer experience (2019–2020); COO Starbucks Japan (2016–2019); SVP marketing and product, China and Asia Pacific (2014–2016)

Sara Kelly

46

Executive vice president, chief partner officer

2022

Joined Starbucks 2001; SVP talent and partner experience (2021–2022); VP partner resources (2014–2021)

Pilar Ramos

53

Executive vice president, chief legal officer

November 2025

EVP, general counsel and corporate secretary of TelevisaUnivision (2021–2025); various roles at Mastercard 2003–2021 including EVP and general counsel, North America (2015–2021)

Anand Varadarajan

—

Chief technology officer

January 2026

—

Tressie Lieberman

—

Global chief brand officer

—

Presented at the 2026 Investor Day on brand, innovation and loyalty

“—” = not publicly disclosed.

Directors' Remuneration

ExecutiveYearSalary (USD)Bonus (USD)Stock awards (USD)Non-equity incentive (USD)All other (USD)Total (USD)

Brian Niccol, chairman and CEO

20251,599,9985,000,00019,881,5851,971,0002,540,19030,992,773

Brian Niccol

202461,5385,000,00090,291,77230,295418,07195,801,676

Cathy Smith, EVP and CFO

2025462,4982,500,00012,459,305328,69715,52315,766,023

Brady Brewer, CEO Starbucks International

2025775,00809,647,346424,313101,14410,947,811

Mike Grams, EVP and COO

2025457,692500,0007,286,612307,442114,8788,666,624

Sara Kelly, EVP and chief partner officer

2025664,42408,255,917364,298123,1679,407,806

Rachel Ruggeri, former EVP and CFO

2025494,31204,366,85201,921,5526,782,716

Val Bauduin, interim CFO

2025524,99201,263,902165,30929,3971,983,600

Board of Directors

DirectorAgeDirector sincePrincipal occupationCommittees

Brian Niccol

522024

Chairman and CEO, Starbucks Corporation

—

Jørgen Vig Knudstorp

572017

Deputy Chair, LEGO Foundation; former CEO, LEGO Group

None (lead independent director)

Ritch Allison

582019

Former CEO and director, Domino's Pizza

Compensation (chair), Audit

Andy Campion

542019

Chairman and CEO, Unrivaled Sports; former COO and CFO, Nike

Audit (chair), Compensation

Beth Ford

612023

President and CEO, Land O'Lakes

Nominating/Governance (chair)

Marissa Mayer

502025

Co-founder and CEO, Dazzle AI; former CEO, Yahoo!

Nominating/Governance

Neal Mohan

522024

CEO, YouTube

Compensation

Dambisa Moyo

572025

Co-principal, Versaca Investments; member of the House of Lords

Audit, Nominating/Governance

Daniel Servitje

662024

Executive Chair, Grupo Bimbo

Audit, Nominating/Governance

Mike Sievert

562024

Vice Chairman and former CEO, T-Mobile US

Compensation

Wei Zhang

552023

Former Senior Advisor and President, Alibaba Pictures Group

Audit, Nominating/Governance

Major Shareholders

HolderShares held (M)Approximate stake (%)

Capital Research and Management Company (aggregate)

121.310.7

The Vanguard Group

112.19.9

BlackRock, Inc.

78.26.9

State Street Global Advisors

47.04.1

Geode Capital Management

25.72.3

FMR LLC (Fidelity)

21.91.9

Wellington Management Group

19.41.7

Morgan Stanley

18.41.6

Wells Fargo & Company

17.11.5

JP Morgan Asset Management

17.01.5

Competitive Landscape

Peer Comparison FY2025

MetricStarbucks FY2025Dutch Bros FY2025Luckin CoffeeMcDonald's 2025

Revenue (USD Mn)

37,1841,63700

Revenue growth (%)

2.827.935.30.0

Operating margin, GAAP (%)

7.90.06.00.0

Net income (USD Mn)

1,85611700

Comparable/same-store sales growth (%)

-1.05.60.00.0

Store count

40,9901,14030,8880

R&D intensity (%)

0000

Recent Developments

--

Company Snapshot

$14,867M

Revenue

381,000

Employees

$107,369M

Market Cap

1971

Founded

Washington, US

Headquarters

SWOT Analysis

Strengths

  • Unmatched retail density. 41,304 stores across 89 markets at 28 June 2026, with 16,933 in the United States alone — a footprint that no branded coffeehouse competitor outside China approaches.
  • A loyalty programme that is effectively the business. 35.5m 90-day-active U.S. members driving nearly 60% of U.S. company-operated revenue in fiscal 2025 (2026 Investor Day).
  • A demonstrably high-return, asset-light CPG franchise. Channel Development delivered a 47.3% operating margin on $1,871.7m of fiscal 2025 revenue and 52.1% in Q3 fiscal 2026, with $249.6m of fiscal 2025 equity-method income from the PepsiCo joint venture.
  • Proven ability to restore throughput. Peak throughput improved to under four minutes on average across café and drive-thru by Q1 fiscal 2026 following the Green Apron Service rollout.
  • Balance-sheet flexibility despite negative book equity. $3,449.8m of cash at 28 June 2026, an Altman Z-Score of 3.04, and the capacity to retire approximately $1.3bn of notes from China proceeds in a single May 2026 tender.
  • Employer proposition supporting execution. Record-low hourly partner turnover in fiscal 2025, 85% of partners achieving preferred hours, and nearly 20,000 cumulative degree graduates through the ASU partnership.
  • Fifteen consecutive years of dividend increases with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 17.5%, maintained without interruption through the fiscal 2025 earnings trough.

Weaknesses

  • Structural margin impairment. GAAP operating margin fell from 15.0% in fiscal 2024 to 7.9% in fiscal 2025 — a 710-basis-point contraction. Non-GAAP margin of 9.9% shows roughly 200bp of that was non-recurring.
  • Store operating expenses at 55.5% of company-operated store revenue in fiscal 2025, against 51.4% a year earlier. Much of this labour reinvestment is permanent.
  • Dividend not covered by free cash flow in fiscal 2025 — $2,771.4m paid against $2,442m of free cash flow.
  • Persistent shareholders' deficit of $8,089.2m at fiscal 2025 year-end, rendering ROE and gearing measures unusable and limiting financial-policy optionality.
  • Excessive historical estate build. 627 stores closed in one quarter because they lacked either a viable physical environment or a path to financial performance — a direct admission of prior siting and format errors.
  • North America dependence. 74% of fiscal 2025 revenue and, at 11.5%, a segment margin that fell 830bp year over year.
  • Licensed-store softness in North America. Segment licensed-store revenue fell 6.3% in fiscal 2025 to $2,575.6m on reduced franchisee foot traffic.
  • Loyalty relaunch execution. The March 2026 tier restructure reduced base-tier earn rates and produced widely reported negative consumer sentiment.

Opportunities

  • Fiscal 2028 margin recovery of 360–510 basis points to the guided 13.5–15.0% non-GAAP band, against 9.9% in fiscal 2025 — the single largest value driver in the story.
  • U.S. unit growth runway of up to 5,000 additional coffeehouses, potentially doubling as average unit volumes rise (2026 Investor Day), including approximately 400 net new U.S. company-operated openings in fiscal 2028 alone.
  • International doubling toward approximately 40,000 non-U.S. locations, with 15,000–20,000 in China under the Boyu structure — growth that now accrues largely as royalty rather than as consolidated store revenue.
  • Afternoon daypart creation. Management has explicitly identified an unowned afternoon occasion and is building Energy Refreshers, protein platforms and premium chai against it.
  • The $2bn cost programme over two years described on the Q1 fiscal 2026 call, spanning G&A, procurement and technology-enabled efficiency.
  • Japan monetisation. A reported ¥400–500bn ($2.5–3.1bn) stake sale or IPO would extend the asset-light conversion; approximately 2,100 stores, mostly directly operated (unconfirmed, Bloomberg, June 2026).
  • Capital return restart. No shares were repurchased in fiscal 2025 or in the first three quarters of fiscal 2026. With leverage falling and free cash flow recovering, resumption is a live catalyst.

Threats

  • Luckin Coffee's scale in China (30,888 stores at end-2025) and its U.S. entry — the company has already opened locations in New York.
  • Green coffee inflation, which the company states has risen steadily over five years with significant increases in the last two, and which it has limited ability to pass to licensees.
  • Tariff exposure. The IEEPA refunds received in Q3 fiscal 2026 offset tariffs incurred across the first three quarters — a one-off that will not repeat, creating a fiscal 2027 comparison headwind.
  • Union organising and labour regulation. Approximately 6% of U.S. company-operated stores are unionised; over 700 unfair labour practice charges were filed in the first three years of the campaign; the December 2025 New York City Fair Workweek settlement was the largest worker-protection settlement in that agency's history.
  • Litigation. The $50m Garcia verdict (with reported total exposure including interest and fees of approximately $61.7m) is under appeal, and at least eight class actions were reported active or entering settlement in 2026.
  • Credit-rating pressure. Moody's moved to a negative outlook in April 2025 and placed the Baa1 rating on review for downgrade in November 2025 following the China announcement.
  • Emissions trajectory versus targets. Third-party analysis indicates 2024 total emissions of approximately 13.3bn kg CO2e exceeded the 2019 baseline of approximately 12.88m tonnes, placing the company materially behind its 50%-by-2030 target.
  • Shareholder-proposal and reputational crossfire. Six shareholder proposals on the 2026 ballot span contested social and governance topics from multiple ideological directions — a structural exposure for a brand positioned on values.

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Key Developments

DateEventSignificance
February 2025Approximately 1,100 corporate roles eliminatedFirst major cost action under Niccol; signals support-organisation simplification
7 March 2025Rachel Ruggeri ceases to serve as CFO; Val Bauduin serves as interim CFOCFO transition
12 March 20252025 annual meeting; nine directors elected; say-on-pay approvedGovernance continuity despite the fiscal 2024 CEO pay package
14 March 2025Los Angeles County jury awards $50m in *Garcia v. Starbucks Corporation* (hot-beverage burn)Largest single adverse personal-injury verdict in company history; Starbucks appealed; prior settlement offers of $3m and $30m were declined by the plaintiff
24 March 2025Cathy Smith appointed EVP and CFOBrings Target, Nordstrom and Walmart International turnaround experience
30 April 2025Q2 FY2025: revenue $8.8bn (+2%), operating margin 6.9% (-590bp), global comps -1%Third consecutive comp decline; multiple analyst downgrades including Goldman Sachs to Neutral
30 April 2025Moody's revises outlook to negative, affirms Baa1 and Prime-2Adjusted debt/EBITDA cited at approximately 3.2x versus 2.9x at FY2024
4 June 2025Mike Grams promoted to EVP and chief operating officerCompletes the Niccol leadership team build-out
25 June 2025Marissa Mayer and Dr Dambisa Moyo elected to the board; size increased from nine to elevenAdds technology/AI and global macro capability
Q3 FY2025Leadership Experience 2025 convenes over 14,000 North America coffeehouse leadersOne-off cost that depressed Q3 FY2025 margin and created an easy comparison for Q3 FY2026
29 July 2025Q3 FY2025: revenue $9.5bn (+4%), operating margin 9.9% (-680bp), global comps -2%; Protein Cold Foam and Starbucks 1971 announcedSixth consecutive quarter of declining comps; International records first $2bn+ quarter
July 2025Corporate partners required to return to office four days per week from 29 SeptemberSupport-organisation culture reset
Mid-August 2025Green Apron Service live across all U.S. company-operated coffeehousesThe central operational intervention
September 2025First Iceland coffeehouse opens — 89th marketContinued market expansion despite North America contraction
September 2025First Spain flagship opens inside Real Madrid's Santiago Bernabéu StadiumDestination-flagship strategy
September 2025Named official coffee partner of the LA28 Olympic and Paralympic Games and Team USAMulti-year home-market brand platform
25 September 2025Board approves approximately $1bn restructuring: 627 stores closed, approximately 900 non-retail roles eliminated, 1,000+ renovations plannedThe decisive portfolio reset; approximately 90% of charges in North America
October 2025Pilar Ramos named EVP and chief legal officer effective early NovemberCompletes the C-suite
29 October 2025Q4 and FY2025 results: Q4 revenue $9.57bn (+5%), global comps +1% — first growth in seven quarters; Q4 GAAP EPS $0.12, non-GAAP $0.52; FY2025 GAAP EPS $1.63The inflection quarter; U.S. comps flat with September positive
29 October 2025Dividend raised to $0.62 per share; 62nd consecutive quarterly payout15th consecutive annual increase
3 November 2025Boyu Capital joint venture for Starbucks China announced at approximately $4bn enterprise valueThe single most consequential strategic transaction of the period
November 2025Moody's places Baa1 ratings on review for downgrade, prompted by the China announcement; Prime-2 affirmedCredit-agency response to the structural change
November 2025Board dissolves the Environmental, Partner, and Community Impact CommitteeGovernance simplification; labour oversight returns to the full board
14 November 2025FY2025 Form 10-K filed—
1 December 2025New York City announces the largest worker-protection settlement in the Department of Consumer and Worker Protection's history, involving Starbucks under the Fair Workweek lawMaterial labour-regulatory event; terms as announced by the city
19 January 2026Anand Varadarajan appointed chief technology officerSignals technology and AI as a strategic priority
26 January 2026DEF 14A filed; six shareholder proposals on the ballot, five opposed by the boardElevated shareholder-proposal activity, largely on social and governance themes
28 January 2026Q1 FY2026: revenue $9.9bn (+6%), global and U.S. comps +4%, first U.S. transaction growth in eight quarters; GAAP EPS $0.26, non-GAAP $0.56; FY2026 guidance introducedConfirms the turn; margin still contracting (GAAP -290bp to 9.0%)
29 January 20262026 Investor Day: fiscal 2028 framework issued; reimagined Rewards announced; long-term store aspirations detailedReset of the long-term equity story
10 March 2026Three-tier Starbucks Rewards launchesSignificant consumer backlash reported; base-tier earn rates materially reduced
25 March 20262026 annual meeting held virtually—
April 2026Boyu joint venture closes; 60/40 ownership; approximately 7,991 stores convert to licensedCompletes the largest structural change since the 2017 East China buy-in
April 2026Additional office announced in Nashville, TennesseeU.S. Southeast presence
20 April 2026U.S. Customs and Border Protection opens IEEPA tariff refund submissions; Starbucks files and receives substantially all requested refunds in Q3Refunds largely offset tariffs incurred across the first three quarters of FY2026
28 April 2026Q2 FY2026: revenue $9.53bn (+9%), global comps +6.2%, U.S. comps +7.1%; GAAP EPS $0.45 (+32%), non-GAAP $0.50 (+22%); GAAP operating margin 8.7% (+180bp); guidance raisedFirst margin expansion quarter; strongest sales growth in roughly two and a half years
4–20 May 2026Cash tender offers across eight note series; $2.6bn tendered, cap raised to $1.3bn; approximately $1.3bn purchased and cancelled on 20 MayDeleveraging with China proceeds; long-term debt falls from $14.58bn to $11.78bn between FY2025 year-end and 28 June 2026
May 2026Nearly 20,000 cumulative Starbucks College Achievement Plan graduates celebratedPartner-proposition proof point
9–10 June 2026Bloomberg reports Starbucks weighing options for Japan including a stake sale or IPO at ¥400–500bnUnconfirmed. Would extend the asset-light conversion to a second major company-operated market
July 20262026 Global Impact Report publishedCoffee, partner opportunity, community and environmental progress
29 July 2026Q3 FY2026: revenue $9.32bn (-1%, reflecting the China transaction), global comps +7.9%, North America comps +8.1%, International comps +5.7%; GAAP EPS $0.91, non-GAAP $0.85 (+70%); GAAP operating margin 10.5%, non-GAAP 14.4% (+430bp); FY2026 guidance raised againFourth consecutive comp-growth quarter and second consecutive margin-expansion quarter; a $536.3m net divestiture gain in GAAP EPS
29 July 2026Dividend of $0.62 declared, payable 28 August 2026; 65th consecutive quarterly payout with a 17% CAGR over that periodDividend policy maintained through the trough
11 August 2026Capital World Investors files an amended Schedule 13G/A reporting 8.2% beneficial ownershipContinued large active-manager conviction

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Revenue

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Net Revenues by Geography: Total rose from USD 35,975.6 Mn in FY2023 to USD 37,184.4 Mn in FY2025.
Starbucks Corporation — Net Revenues by Geography
Series (USD Mn)FY2023FY2024FY2025
Total35,975.636,176.237,184.4
United States26,398.326,707.427,124.7
China3,081.53,008.23,160.8
Other countries6,495.86,460.66,898.9

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